Mid-term Adequacy Forecastof the Czech Republic2016 - 2025

ČEPS 08/2016

■ According to Regulation (EC) No 714/2009− ENTSO-E shall adopt the European generation adequacy outlook

(SO&AF, MAF) build on the National adequacy outlook− Assessment for next 5-15 years− National adequacy outlook should be prepared by TSO (ČEPS in CZ)

Mid-term Adequacy Forecast (MAF CZ)

National adequacy outlook

ČEPS

Pan-EU adequacy outlook

ENTSO-E

StakeholdersRelevant data

data

methodology

■ Internal and external needs of ČEPS (periodical outlooks)− Internal – middle-term operational planning− External – measures (infrastructure, tools,…)

■ Risk assessment of electrical energy balance – probabilistic approach ■ To provide consistent data for generation adequacy assessment ■ To ensure higher interface among the current reports (DOP, MOP,

ENTSO-E,...)■ Development of own consumption model■ To ensure up to date the national generation mix forecast in line with

assumptions of the State Energy Policy and EU policy

The purpose of the MAF CZ

The purpose of MAF CZ

Legend:YOP – Annual operation planMOP – Monthly operation planDOP – Daily operational planSEP – State Energy Policy of the Czech RepublicNAP SG – National Action Plan for Smart GridsLT – Long-termOTE – Market operator in CZ

Internal documents/processes ČEPS

External documents

DOP

Generation Adequacy

Development plans

ENTSO-e Outlooks(SOAF, TYNDP) LT Balance OTE SEP,

NAP SG

MOP YOP

year 10 – 15 years 25 - 30 years

acc. Energy Act (OTE)acc. Regulation 714/2009Disp.order

■ Development of generation adequacy methodology:− ENTSO-E switches SO&AF to MAF, The new report MAF focuses on

Europe-wide assessment − Probabilistic approach (weather impact on RES)− Hourly resolution − Stronger emphases on cross-border capacities− Larger range of indicators: Energy Not Supplied or Unserved Energy, Loss Of Load Event,.. − Focus on flexibility requirement

■ Recommendation for the MAF CZ (report for DG energy)− Apply the Target methodology according to ENTSO-E − Use the same database

Methodology – development

■ National adequacy outlook contains:− Development of electrical energy balance at least for next 10 years− Assessment of generation portfolio in two scenarios (according to the State Energy

conception)− Probabilistic methods and simulations (according ENTSO-E methodology)− Results and indicators− Proposal of preventive measures − ČEPS statement for stakeholders

Mid-term Adequacy Forecast

Yearly loadsTemperature dependency

RES dependencies

Climate dataHydro, wind,..

Operation reserves

Net transfer capacity

Generationcapacities

Others

Consumption outlook

Simulation &

Analysis

Results, indicators

Preventive measuresStatement

■ For the SO&AF the deterministic approach was used■ The below chart shows the lowest level of power balance in every

single month published by ENTSO-E

ENTSO-E’s results – SO&AF 2015 for CZ

■ CEPS’s demand model■ Annual consumption forecast

− Based on correlation of:− Electricity consumption growth− GDP growth rate − EEN grow rate

à Two consumption scenarios were calculated (A and B) regarding different GDP growth and impact of other factors

■ Load forecast− Input: Historical loads and

forecasted consumptionsà Forecasted demand loads

Inputs – Consumption and load

■ The net generating capacity (NTC) outlook − According to the ENTSO-E methodology− RES – slower introduction against the State energy conception

Inputs – Installed capacity - RES

Note: PVPP – photovoltaic power plant, VPP – wind power plant, NAP – The National action plan for RES, SEP – The State Energy Policy

■ The net generating capacity outlook – according to the ENTSO-E methodology

Inputs – Installed capacity – Fossil+Nuclear

■ One simulation in 2020 due to predictable generation capacity■ Simulations were done in three variations for 2025■ Risk of unavailability: Nuclear power plant Dukovany (2,040 MW)

Simulations - variations

Year Peak load ConsumptionBalance

Import (+) Export (-)

Variation

2020 10,493 MW 67.6 TWh -13.3 TWh

2025 (a) 10,664 MW 68.7 TWh -10.1 TWh Normal state

2025 (b) 10,664 MW 68.7 TWh 3.6 TWhUnavailability of nuclear power plant (NPP) Dukovany, this NPP is not substituted by a respective output; substantial import balance.

2025 (c) 10,664 MW 68.7 TWh 0.0 TWhUnavailability of NPP Dukovany, this NPP is not substituted by a respective output, and simultaneously the final CZ balance is zero.

Results and indicators – ENS, LOLELO

LE(h

ours

)E

NS

(GW

h)

■ ENS - Energy Not Supplied or Unserved Energy (MWh/year)■ LOLE - Loss Of Load Event (hour/year)■ LOLP - Loss Of Load Probability (%)

2020 2025 (a) 2025 (b) 2025 (c)

■ Due to expired lifetime of some generation capacities LOLE reached 30 h in 2025 – variation 2025(a)− In the case of low production of RES in combination with higher failure rate

od fossil fueled generation − Operative imports can solve ENS (max. import 500 MW)

■ Influence of unavailability of the Dukovany NPP in variants 2025(b) and (c)− All indicators reached very high values (e. g. LOLE 1,130 – 1,300 h)− Operative imports increased to 1,000 MW in comparison with var. 2025(a)− Availability of such a high import cross-border capacity is in question− In the case of low production of RES in combination with higher failure rate of

fossil fueled generation the required import could reach 2,500 MW

Results and indicators – findings

■ Major risks are following:− The decline in the surplus of generation capacity − Phase-out of coal generation: NTC -25 %− Operation of nuclear power plants (NPP) and its condition for long

time operation− Increased share of RES and decentralized generation− Flexible demand and availability of ancillary services

■ A necessary condition to ensure reliable operation of the ES CR up to 2025:− To extend the lifespan of the Dukovany NPP, at least at the level of

50 years

Results – statement & measures

■ Recommendation for further analysis:− More detailed development of scenarios and to asses potential risks

caused by the possible limited availability of the Dukovany NPP in combination with varying levels of integration of RES and decentralised generation

− To asses flexibility of demand side response and decentralized generation and its influence on balancing the sudden power changes

− To verify the hypothesis on sufficient amount of certified volumes, especially in relation to the results for the scenarios 2025 (b) and (c)

− Annually publish the Mid-term Adequacy Forecast of the Czech Republic

Results – statement & measures

Well unbundled connectivity

ČEPS, a.s, Elektrárenská 774/2, Prague 10

vinkler@ceps.cz

www.ceps.cz