MICS-Asia Phase IIIWork Plan - 2013 +

GREG CARMICHAEL, ZIFA WANG, AND HAJIME AKIMOTO

MICS-Asia III • Evaluate the capabilities and uncertainties

of current air quality models in Asia simulations and provide multi-model estimates of pollution distributions.

• Develop and test anthropogenic emission inventories in Asia.

• Evaluate predicted aerosol-weather-climate interactions.

• Prediction of future pollution levels for future emission scenarios.

MICS-III TOPICS• Topic 1: Model Intercomparison

(Leaders: Z. Wang, K. Yamaji and J. Fu)

• Topic 2: Inter-comparison of emission inventory (Leaders: J. Woo, T. Ohara, and Q. Zhang)

• Topic 3: Air Quality/Weather/Climate Interactions

(Leaders: Greg Carmichael, ZW Han, Yafang Cheng)

Topic 1: Model Intercomparison

1.1 ObjectiveTopic 1 (model inter-comparison) aims to evaluate strengths and weaknesses of current air quality models for air quality simulation and prediction and to provide techniques to reduce uncertainty and improve performance over Asia.

1.2 Key Topics(1) Assess the capabilities of current models

to reproduce pollutant concentrations under highly polluted conditions (Regional Haze and High Ozone);

(2) Quantify uncertainties due to physical and chemical processes) and model resolution (horizontal and vertical) in air quality predictions;

(3) Investigate the predicted responses in pollution levels to specific emissions perturbations.

1.3 Activities 2013+(1) To submit inputs for all the participated

models;(2) To submit base year model simulations

participants and compare models to the best available observational data;

(3) To perform model simulation for air quality responses in various areas to specific emission perturbations by all participants: Source-receptor relationship and future projections;

(4) To perform model simulation for sensitivity analysis and future projection by all the participants.

(1) Participant models (committed as of 3/10/2013)

Global models: CHASER (Sudo), GEOS-Chem (Yuxuan), GEATM(Zifa), GEM-MACH(Sunling), CAM-chem(Loues), CUCTUS (Hong Liao), expect others …..Regional models: CMAQ(Yamaji 4.7.1, Fu 5.0.1, Narisara [Southest Asia domain nested 2]), CAMx(Zifa), NAQPMS(Zifa),TAQM (Lin and Genhui), WRF-Chem(Greg, Chuan-yao), STEM-2011(Xuemei), CUACE(Sunling), GEOS-chem nested , LOTUS -TNO, PATH (Fung, HK), RAMS-CMAQ (Meigen), CMAQ(Hung, Southeast Asia domain with Narisara), expect others

Full year of 2010: First Due Date - August 31, 2013. Priority periods for further analysis: January 2013January, March , July, December, 2010; Due: August 31, 2013

Model domain and simulation period Model domain

GlobalNortheast Asia & Southeast – Megacities

Region domains: East Asia, including Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia (15S—70N; 70E—160E). Smaller domain: including the main megacities (Beijing, Tokyo, Guangzhou). Boundary conditions: provided by Global model

Simulation periodFull period 2008-2010: simulated by some models, first priority 2010

Severe pollution case in January 2013: all models considering influences of emission variation (e.g. heating period) and meteorological condition.

Domains

D1 : 185*183 (45km)

D2 : 220*202(15km)

D3 : 226*283(5km)

Vert: 40 layers with 20 < 2000m

• Gridded emissionAnthropogenic emissions: March 31, 2013Mosaic national emission inventories of China, Japan, Korea, India ,Thailand.Other anthropogenic emission, such as aircraft and shipping emissions

Natural emissions datasets: April 30, 2013Biomass burning, Biogenic, Volcano, Dust, Sea-salt, Soil NOxand HONO, Lightning NOx

(2) Inputs for all the participated models

Components of MIX inventory Qiang Zhang, Meng Li, Jun-ichiKurokawa, Toshimasa Ohara, and Jung-Hun Woo - with contribution from Kebin He, Zbigniew Klimont, Zifeng Lu, Yu Song, and David Streets

• Meteorological fields (evaluated)Reference meteorology provided using the same WRF)

• Boundary conditionsTo be prepared by a global model,

CHASER or GEOS-chem.• Observation data (still being compiled/finalized)

Lidar monitoring data in IAP and other sites ; Pollution concentration observed data in Beijing and area (24 sites) in 2010 (By Prof. Yuesi Wang) ; EANET data for 2008-2010CMA, others…

(2) Inputs for all the participated models

April 30, 2013

Capacity• ACAP-IAP Joint Center (JICAM) SupportJoint International Center on Air Quality Modeling Studies (JICAM)

• Two Staff (data analysis technician, secretary) ,1 post Doc (April, 2013) and two Master Students

• IPCC technique (Ftp site) to exchange the data

• LAPC Super-computer (25 TFLOPS, 25万亿次),192T to be ready on March 31, 2013

Collaboration with ABC modeling group (1)

ID: abcmemberPW: Nov18abc

Description of modelincluding 12 models

View model results(Using browser)

How to participate this work

Configuration of server

Building web system for ABC modeling group (2)

Select one model

Select (several) parameters with the range

Select domain and period

Snapshot or Average?

Start to make figures

Synergetic work system• Check data collection system

– Agreements; data format; servers; calibrations• Paths from Observations to Impact Studies

– servers; requests to/from Impact Study G. and Observatory G.• IAP: Intensive Analysis Period (from August 2011)

– Target periods; which parameters• Inventory construction

Data Center(ROAP)

Data Analysis Center(SNU)

Modeling G. Data Collection

(UT)

Impact Study Groups

Observatories

variablesmappingsimpact studies

formats

1st analysis

2nd analysis

archive and distribution

comparison

This week – how to maximize coordination with HTAP

• Encourage wide participation – will send out website with final description/details.

• Coordinate with other HTAP tasks to define additional experiments/analysis &/or model outputs from the MICS runs.

• What global models may be used for BCs.• Discuss S/R activities.• Coordinate/utilize HTAP IT for model/obs

evaluation, etc.