Michiko Masutani

New High Resolution Nature Runs

NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

Progress in Joint OSSEsInternationally collaborative Full OSSEs sharing the same Nature Run

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/JointOSSEshttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/THORPEX/osse

NOAA-NASA and International OSSEs Team

OSSEs: Observing Systems Simulation ExperimentsJCSDA: Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationSWA: Simpson Weather AssociatesESRL: Earth System Research Laboratory (formerly FSL, CDC, ETL)

NCEP: Michiko Masutani, John S. Woollen, Yucheng Song, Daryl Kleist, Stephen J. Lord, Zoltan TothJCSDA: Lars Peter Riishojgaard (NASA/GFSC), Fuzhong Weng (NESDIS)NESDIS: Haibing Sun, Tong Zhu, Sid Boukabara, Min-Jeong KimSWA: G. David Emmitt, Sidney A. Wood, Steven GrecoNASA/GFSC: Ron Errico, Emily Liu, Oreste Reale, Joe Terry, Juan Juseum,

Gail McConaughy , Runhua Yang, Chaojiao SunNOAA/ESRL:Tom Schlatter, Yuanfu Xie, Nikki Prive, Dezso Devenyi,

Steve WeygandtECMWF: Erik AnderssonKNMI: Ad Stoffelen, Gert-Jan Marseille MSU/GRI: Valentine Anantharaj, Chris Hill, Pat Fitzpatrick,

OSSEs will help to design and configuration of the new instruments

OSSE will provide guideline for development in Data assimilation systems

OSSEs are labour intensive project. Effective collaboration and effective distribution of resources will significantly reduce the cost. This will also speed up the performance of OSSEs and enhance the credibility of the results.

The date impact depends on how the data is handled in the DA system.

1000km RaobT170L42 analT62L28 fcst

CTL1000km RaobT62L28 anal & fcst

U 200 hPa

500km RaobT62L28 anal & fcst

500km Raob T62L64 anal T62L64 fcst

500km Raob T62L64 anal T62L28 fcst

T 200 hPa

OSSEs can provide recommendation for DAS

Increasing the vertical resolution was important for high density observations

High density observation give better analysis but it could cause poor forecast

T170 L42 model

L64 anl&fcst

High density observations give a better analysis but could cause a poor forecast

L64 anl&fcst

L64 anl L28 fcst

L64 anl L28 fcst

5

500km obs

Need one good new Nature Run which will be used by many OSSEs including regional data assimilation.

Share the simulated data to compare the OSSE results by various DA systems to gain confidence in results.

Nature Run: Serves as a true atmosphere for OSSEs

Preparation of the Nature Run and simulation of basic observations consume a significant amount of resources.

If different NRs are used by various DAs, it is hard to compare the results.

New Nature Run by ECMWF Based on Recommendations by

JCSDA, NCEP, GMAO, GLA, SIVO, SWA, NESDIS, ESRL

Low Resolution Nature Run Spectral resolution : T511

Vertical levels: L913 hourly dump

Initial conditions: 12Z May 1st, 2005 Ends at: 0Z Jun 1,2006

Daily SST and ICE: provided by NCEPModel: Version cy31r1

Completed in July 2006, rerun October 2006

Two High Resolution Nature Run35 days long

Hurricane season: Starting at 12z September 27,2005,

Convective precipitation over US: starting at 12Z April 10, 2006 T799 resolution, 91 levels, one hourly dump

Get initial conditions from T511 NR

To be archived in the MARS systemon the THORPEX server at ECMWFAccessed by external users expver=etwu

Copies for US are available to designated users & users known to ECMWF Redistribution right not given

(Contact Michiko Masutani michiko.masutani@noaa.gov)

To be available from NASA/GSFC/SIVO and THORPEX server at NCAR

Proposed subset of the data: The complete surface data in reduced Gaussian (N256, N400), Complete (1x1, 0.5x0.5)pressure level data Complete (1x1,0.5x0.5) isentropic dataA few days worth model level data to be posted for online access, The complete model level data (2.4TB) must be sent using hard disks. Simulated observations. Some OSSE results

Archive and Distribution

Supplemental low resolution regular lat lon data Currently available from NCEP ftp server.

1degx1deg for T511 NR, 0.5degx0.5deg for T799 NR Pressure level data: 31 levels

Potential temperature level data: 315,330,350,370,530K

Selected time series for surface data: Convective precip, Large scale precip, MSLP,T2m,TD2m, U10,V10, HCC, LCC, MCC, TCC, Sfc Skin Temp

Evaluation Diagnostics of the T511 Nature run(1x1 resolution data)

Only TCLs having a center pressure of less than 1000 hPa in the 1x1 fields and900 hPa vorticity greater than 3x10-4 s-1 are considered

Vertical structure of a HL vortex shows, even at the degraded resolution of 1 deg, a distinct eye-like feature and a very prominent warm core. Structure even more impressive than the system observed in August. Low-level wind speed exceeds 55 m/s

The EC-nature run reproduces very well two outstanding characteristics of the LLJ: (a) Its permanence during the whole year, and (b) Its peak intensity during night hours.

Two prominent features of the of the LLJ are very well simulated by EC-NR: (a) its persistence all year round and (b) its peak intensity at night.

THE SOUTH AMERICAN LOW

LEVEL JETT511 NR 1x1 deg data

Juan Carlos Jusem

Preliminary concluding remarks on the African Monson region and tropical

Atlantic• A synoptic assessment of the NR over the AM region and the

tropical Atlantic shows an overall very realistic African Monsoon, AEJ and wave activity

• In addition to the 2 `major’ systems with a full hurricane-like development up to Aug 31st , at least other 9 `strong’ systems (for 1x1 res.) develop during September and October

• Several weaker tropical and sub-tropical systems are also present

• In spite of a tendency of creating several early recurvers, it can be stated that the NR, given the resolution limitation, does have a good representativeness of tropical cyclone track variability in the Atlantic, as it would occur in an active season

• This Nature Run seems to represent a very promising tool to perform OSSEs over the tropical Atlantic

CURRENT and FUTURE WORK at NASA GSFC (GLA and SIVO) on the NR validation

• Comprehensive statistics on midlatitude cyclone activity have been performed (J. Terry)

• Comprehensive statistics on precipitation (J.C. Jusem) are in progress and will be presented in the next meeting together with an assessment of the South American monsoon

• Analysis of tropical weather over Indian Ocean and Asian Monsoon regions with emphasis on the Somali Jet, monsoon onset and breaks, tropical depressions, is being completed

• An assessment of the Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone season is also being completed

• Southern Hemisphere and Western Pacific tropical weather systems will be investigated in the near future

Comparison of zonal mean zonal wind jet maxima, NR and ECMWF analysis, Northern Hemisphere By Nikki Prive, ESRL

blue – ECMWF

green star – Nature Run

Nikki Prive also presented realistic Rossby wave and many good storm to test T-PARC experiments

T799 91 level Nature run35 day long hourly dump

1) Hurricane season (completed on 7/2)

T799OCT05

Initial condition from T511 at 12z September 27,2005End at 12 z November 1st, 2005

One strong hurricane over Atlantic. Another one in central Pacific

2) Spring thunder storm season (Completed on 7/9)

T799APR06

Initial condition from T511 at 12z April 10, 2006End at 12 z May 15, 2006

Good storm over JapanSeveral thunder storms over USFour TC in Southern hemisphere

T511

T799

Min MSLP T799 OCT05 period

By Michiko Masutani

Quick look using 1degree data

Convective Precipitation

T511

T799

By Michiko Masutani

Quick look using 1degree data3 hour mean 12z-15Z Oct05 2005

T799

Tropical cyclone in T799NR APR06

By Juan Carlos Jusem

Quick look using 1degree data

T511

T799

Min MSLP T799 APR06 period

By Michiko Masutani

Quick look using 1degree data

T511

T799

Convective Precipitation in Spring

By Michiko Masutani

01Z May 2, 2005

06Z Apr 25, 2006

Quick look using 3 hour mean 1degree data

1x1 fields for quick look

We have received MSLP and CP

Posted atftp://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mmasutani/T799NR/OCT05 ftp://ftp.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mmasutani/T799NR/APR06

Selected surface data in 1x1 degree for T511 NR and T799

MSLP,T2m,TD2m, U10,V10, HCC, LCC, MCC, TCC, Sfc Skin Temp

Four 1TB disks are being written at ECMWF

Pre cursor assimilation

Conduct data assimilation for entire T511NR period (13 month) with limited simulated data set.

Include data which can be simulated by simple interpolation (prepbufr)

RAOB, Air Craft, Aircar, Sat wind

DA with spectral resolution T62 with 64 level model

This will to test the OSSE system.The results could provide initial condition for other OSSEs.

Radiance Simulation System for OSSE Lars-Peter Riigeojgaard, Emily Liu, Ron Errico, Runhua Yang

(NASA/GSFC/GMAO)

Tong Zhu, Haibing Sun, Sid Boukabara, Fuzhong Weng(NOAA/NESDIS)

GOESR,NPOESS,ESA

Existing instruments experiments must be simulated for control and calibration

Other resources and/or advisors Walter Wolf, Paul Van Delst, Chris Barnet, Yong Han, Mark Liu, David Groff, Tom Kleespies, (JCSDA);Erik Andersson (ECMWF); Roger Saunders (Met Office)

Definition of OSSE

There are many type of simulation experiments. Any OSSEs must be presented with their own limitations. Avoid presenting results beyond its limitations.

We have to call our OSSE as Full OSSE to avoid confusion.Through full OSSEs, impact on forecast can be evaluatedOnly full OSSE can provide detail information about configuration of observing systems.

Identical twin experiments

It is worth while to try identical twin experiments to understand model error.

Identical twin OSSEs can be only used for illustration only ECMWF offered to perform identical twin OSSEs if there is specific goal.

Comments on regional OSSE

Nesting other model and starting from other model fields produce noise. Regional NR must provide the estimate of the noise produced from lateral and initial conditions.

1km resolution data does not have impact on only 1km scale. That has to give impact on synoptic scale and planetary scale event. Many low quality data can produce one high quality data using QC and super-obbing. Effective resolution is much larger than 1km.

Regional analysis using same global Nature run with regional analysis and model is worth while to try out because regional analysis is done operationally. 

Atmospheric model with a few km resolution require much more development. Waiting for a few km resolution global model may be better

Intergradations of regional OSSE effort to Joint OSSEs

Most of OSSEs in global DAS will be done les than T170 resolution. There are many regional experiments to be done between T170 and T799 resolution.

Good hurricanes in T799 run will serve another five years of OSSEs even for regional DAS

Joint OSSE will provide criteria of next generation of the super high resolution Nature run for regional OSSEs

The Joint OSSE Nature runs will be available to research and educational community.

List of users must be provided to ECMWF.Redistribution right not given

Complete data ECMWF,NCEP,ESRL,NASAVerification data sent to

JMA, NCAR, SWA, and more

Make OSSE available to wide research community by providing low res verification data and simulation obs.

END