Michigan Department of Corrections Updated Prison Bed Space Projections Impact from Probation, Community Corrections, Parole and the MPRI Presentation

Michigan Department of CorrectionsMichigan Department of Corrections

Updated Prison Bed Space Updated Prison Bed Space ProjectionsProjections

Impact from Probation, Community Impact from Probation, Community Corrections, Parole and the MPRICorrections, Parole and the MPRI

Presentation to the Senate Appropriations Presentation to the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on CorrectionsSubcommittee on Corrections

May 12, 2009May 12, 2009

22

Projection Model & MethodologyProjection Model & Methodology

Projections issued in 2005 were 99.6% accurateOnly 205 prisoners higher than actual

Projections issued in 2006 were 96.9% accurate1,540 prisoners lower than actual – due to the criminal justice system response to highly publicized crimes in February 2006

Projections issued in 2007 were 95.0% accurate2,625 prisoners higher than actual — due to record paroles, 33% fewer parole failures, and reduced prison admissions

Projections issued in 2008 were 94.7% accurate2,708 prisoners higher than actual — Past-ERD Reduction Strategy produced 3rd highest number of paroles, fewer parole failures, and less than expected prison admissions

33

Actual Population versus Net Operating CapacityActual Population versus Net Operating Capacity

Michigan Department of Corrections

CAPACITY AND POPULATION HISTORY: 1/1995 - 1/2009

37,000

38,000

39,000

40,000

41,000

42,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

51,000

52,000

53,000

Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09

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Actual Prison & Camp Population Net Operating Capacity

44

Evidenced Based PracticesEvidenced Based Practices Reducing Crime by Focusing on What WorksReducing Crime by Focusing on What Works

• Studies show there is little direct relationship between crime and Studies show there is little direct relationship between crime and incarceration and that the cost benefit of imprisonment is not the best incarceration and that the cost benefit of imprisonment is not the best way to reduce crime.way to reduce crime.

• Return to prison rates for former prisoners who serve one, two, three, Return to prison rates for former prisoners who serve one, two, three, four or five years in prison are nearly the same. four or five years in prison are nearly the same.

• The rising cost of the corrections budget is not driven by increases in The rising cost of the corrections budget is not driven by increases in crime, it is driven by the sheer size of the prison system.crime, it is driven by the sheer size of the prison system.

• Dollar for dollar, investments in effective police practices reduce crime Dollar for dollar, investments in effective police practices reduce crime more than imprisonment.more than imprisonment.

• Employment is a critical dimension of successful offender rehabilitation Employment is a critical dimension of successful offender rehabilitation and is associated with lower rates of re-offending; higher wages are and is associated with lower rates of re-offending; higher wages are associated with lower rates of criminal activity.associated with lower rates of criminal activity.

• Educational and training programs that address fundamental abilities Educational and training programs that address fundamental abilities

and teach skills directly applicable to the job market contribute to and teach skills directly applicable to the job market contribute to successful reintegration of offenders into society and reduce successful reintegration of offenders into society and reduce recidivism.recidivism.

55

Evidence Based PracticesEvidence Based PracticesMichigan Prisoner ReEntry InitiativeMichigan Prisoner ReEntry Initiative

• Implemented statewide in FY 2008 with expansion to up-to-Implemented statewide in FY 2008 with expansion to up-to-scale possible in FY2009scale possible in FY2009

• Focus on MPRI has provided improved resources to Parole Focus on MPRI has provided improved resources to Parole Board including better training and more sophisticated Board including better training and more sophisticated assessment instrumentsassessment instruments

• Annual parole revocations are down by 42% since record high Annual parole revocations are down by 42% since record high year of 2002, despite a 40% increase in size of parole year of 2002, despite a 40% increase in size of parole populationpopulation

• Successful MPRI process mitigates and controls risk - raises Successful MPRI process mitigates and controls risk - raises Parole Board confidence in parole plans and outcomes, Parole Board confidence in parole plans and outcomes, enabling higher parole approval rates across the boardenabling higher parole approval rates across the board

• Improved parole guidelines are being developed as a way to Improved parole guidelines are being developed as a way to sustain and expand the impact of these improvementssustain and expand the impact of these improvements

66

Projection AssumptionsProjection AssumptionsSuccessful Approaches to Controlling Prison GrowthSuccessful Approaches to Controlling Prison Growth

Front End Impacts on Prison GrowthFront End Impacts on Prison Growth Comprehensive Planning through the Community Corrections Act Comprehensive Planning through the Community Corrections Act

continues to keep prison admission rate lower than other statescontinues to keep prison admission rate lower than other states Graduated sanctions and services for probationers respond to Graduated sanctions and services for probationers respond to

probationer risk and need – less than 7% fail and go to prisonprobationer risk and need – less than 7% fail and go to prison Residential substance abuse treatment programs are effectiveResidential substance abuse treatment programs are effective

Efforts to Affect Length of Stay, Releases and ReturnsEfforts to Affect Length of Stay, Releases and Returns MPRI statewide expansion includes every county in the stateMPRI statewide expansion includes every county in the state Improved Parole Board risk and need assessment strategiesImproved Parole Board risk and need assessment strategies Focus on special populations: Mentally Ill, Youthful Offenders, SAI, Focus on special populations: Mentally Ill, Youthful Offenders, SAI,

Female OffendersFemale Offenders Continue Aggressive Review of Past ERD Prisoner PopulationContinue Aggressive Review of Past ERD Prisoner Population

Cross System Efforts Driven by MPRI FocusCross System Efforts Driven by MPRI Focus More sophisticated risk and need assessment approachesMore sophisticated risk and need assessment approaches Offender based accountability plansOffender based accountability plans Collaborative Case Management approachesCollaborative Case Management approaches Focus on employment as primary offender needFocus on employment as primary offender need

77


PROJECTED PRISON POPULATION & NET OPERATING CAPACITY REDUCTION

43,000

44,000

45,000

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

51,000

52,000

53,000

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

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Actual Prison & Camp Population Historical Net Operating Capacity

Future Net Operating Capacity 12/08 Base Projection w/ SAI-Prison Increase

12/08 Scenario w/ Past ERD Reduction Strategy 12/08 Alternate Forecast w/ SAI-Prison Sunset on 9/30/2009

88


UPDATED POPULATION PROJECTION: CSG Options & Stronger Past ERD Reduction: APRIL 30 STATUS

40,000

41,000

42,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

51,000

52,000

53,000


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Future Net Operating Capacity 2/09 Projection Update - 120% Cap, Short PVT, Max Parole, Less Past ERD

99

Recent TrendsRecent Trends

Through April 30, 2009Through April 30, 2009 • Current actual population is within 926 of the projection through April Current actual population is within 926 of the projection through April

(98.0% accurate).(98.0% accurate).

• Male population is 961 higher than the forecast, while female Male population is 961 higher than the forecast, while female population is 35 lower than the forecast.population is 35 lower than the forecast.

• In terms of bed space, actual net operating capacity at the end of April In terms of bed space, actual net operating capacity at the end of April was slightly higher than forecast due primarily to the opening of the was slightly higher than forecast due primarily to the opening of the Maxey Facility and the beds added at Macomb Correctional Facility for Maxey Facility and the beds added at Macomb Correctional Facility for male mental health treatment.male mental health treatment.

• All trends in the key corrections data indicators continue to point to an All trends in the key corrections data indicators continue to point to an accelerating prison population reduction over the coming months.accelerating prison population reduction over the coming months.

• The Council of State Governments Justice Reinvestment Work Group The Council of State Governments Justice Reinvestment Work Group Recommendations, originally expected to take effect by April 1, 2009, Recommendations, originally expected to take effect by April 1, 2009, have not yet been taken up by the Legislature.have not yet been taken up by the Legislature.

• The expansion of the Parole Board from 10 to 15 members has been The expansion of the Parole Board from 10 to 15 members has been accomplished and increased numbers of reviews will result in accomplished and increased numbers of reviews will result in additional paroles.additional paroles.

1010

Front End ImpactFront End Impact: Felony court dispositions have declined in 2008 after 8 : Felony court dispositions have declined in 2008 after 8 consecutive years of growthconsecutive years of growth


Total Felony Court Dispositions (Offenders)

38,805 38,749 39,340 40,016

38,178 38,359

41,835

45,147

47,22948,263

49,467

52,031 52,719

50,693

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1111

Front End ImpactFront End Impact: Prison intake decreased due to reduced dispositions, and : Prison intake decreased due to reduced dispositions, and improved community corrections and probation practices – lowest since 2001improved community corrections and probation practices – lowest since 2001


Prison Intake

8,6679,169

9,584 9,424

8,809 8,922

9,610

11,050

10,3119,811

10,241

11,09410,713

9,715

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

*Includes new court commitments, probation violators (technical or new sentence), parole violators new sentence, and escapee new sentence.

1212


Parole Approval Rate

55.0%

57.9%

55.3%

51.3% 51.5%

47.3% 47.7% 48.4%

51.8% 51.5%

54.7%

51.7% 52.5%

58.1%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Impact on Length of StayImpact on Length of Stay: Parole approval rate reached highest level since : Parole approval rate reached highest level since 1993 due to MPRI and Parole Board efforts to improve risk & need assessment1993 due to MPRI and Parole Board efforts to improve risk & need assessment

1313

Impact on ReleasesImpact on Releases: The number of moves to parole in 2008 was the 3: The number of moves to parole in 2008 was the 3rdrd highest in history due to MPRI and improvements by the Parole Boardhighest in history due to MPRI and improvements by the Parole Board


Moves to Parole

9,0789,465

8,758

10,506

9,682

9,133

10,001

10,697

11,75211,344

10,284 10,240

12,429

11,557

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1414


Discharges on the Maximum Sentence

851

969

1,051

1,174

1,299

1,449

1,6291,699 1,714

1,925 1,929

1,7811,713

1,654

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Impact on ReleasesImpact on Releases: Max outs have steadily declined due to the MPRI : Max outs have steadily declined due to the MPRI after a decade of annual increasesafter a decade of annual increases

1515


Parole Violator New Sentence Intake

890

1,033

1,2881,345

1,2591,166 1,195

1,441

1,644

1,8021,879

2,020 1,993 2,027

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Impact on ReturnsImpact on Returns:: Parole violator new sentence admissions to prison have Parole violator new sentence admissions to prison have been stable for 3 years - despite about 3,000 more offenders on parole- due to been stable for 3 years - despite about 3,000 more offenders on parole- due to

MPRI and improved parole supervision approachesMPRI and improved parole supervision approaches

1616


Parole Technical Violator Returns to Prison

1,916

2,5772,668

3,1103,186

3,1113,236 3,289

2,161

3,0132,859

3,158

2,095

1,893

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Note: Historically 70% have involved new criminal activity

Impact on ReturnsImpact on Returns: Parole violator technical returns to prison decreased: Parole violator technical returns to prison decreased to the lowest number since 1992 - despite a record high parole population – to the lowest number since 1992 - despite a record high parole population –

due to MPRI and improved parole supervision approachesdue to MPRI and improved parole supervision approaches

1717

The Council of State Governments /Justice Reinvestment Work GroupThe Council of State Governments /Justice Reinvestment Work GroupData-Informed, Policy Driven RecommendationsData-Informed, Policy Driven Recommendations

Recommendations that Affect Prison AdmissionsRecommendations that Affect Prison Admissions

Probationers with high risk and need factors have high Probationers with high risk and need factors have high rearrest rates and need intensive supervision, health rearrest rates and need intensive supervision, health

services, education and other supports. services, education and other supports. The Justice Reinvestment Work Group recommends:The Justice Reinvestment Work Group recommends:

• Amend the Community Corrections Act (CCA) to eliminate the Amend the Community Corrections Act (CCA) to eliminate the restriction to only allow targeting of non-assaultive offenders and to restriction to only allow targeting of non-assaultive offenders and to require the use of validated risk and need assessmentrequire the use of validated risk and need assessment

• Target High Risk probationers under the CCA and measure impact of Target High Risk probationers under the CCA and measure impact of evidence based practices on reducing rearrest.evidence based practices on reducing rearrest.

• Expand graduated sanctions and services for probationers including Expand graduated sanctions and services for probationers including the use of short jail stays as sanctions and, in the service area, the use of short jail stays as sanctions and, in the service area, improved approaches for employment improved approaches for employment

• Demonstrate the quality of the programs funded under the CCADemonstrate the quality of the programs funded under the CCA

1818

The Council of State Governments /Justice Reinvestment Work GroupThe Council of State Governments /Justice Reinvestment Work GroupData-Informed, Policy Driven RecommendationsData-Informed, Policy Driven Recommendations

Recommendations that Affect Length of StayRecommendations that Affect Length of Stay

2007 prison releases to parole served an average 2007 prison releases to parole served an average 127% of their court-imposed minimum sentence. 127% of their court-imposed minimum sentence.

The Justice Reinvestment Work Group recommends:The Justice Reinvestment Work Group recommends:

• Legislation to require that the Parole Board release prisoners Legislation to require that the Parole Board release prisoners after serving between 100-120% of their court-imposed after serving between 100-120% of their court-imposed minimum sentence – with limited exceptionsminimum sentence – with limited exceptions

• Legislation to require that the Parole Board revoke parole for Legislation to require that the Parole Board revoke parole for no more than 9 months for first time revocations related to no more than 9 months for first time revocations related to condition violationscondition violations

• Legislation to require that the Parole Board, with only few Legislation to require that the Parole Board, with only few exceptions, provide at least 9 months of parole supervision for exceptions, provide at least 9 months of parole supervision for prisoners who otherwise would have served their entire prisoners who otherwise would have served their entire maximum sentence (no “max outs”, with few exceptions)maximum sentence (no “max outs”, with few exceptions)

1919

New Prison Population ProjectionsNew Prison Population Projections

Expand Front End Impacts on Prison Growth under the Expand Front End Impacts on Prison Growth under the Community Corrections ActCommunity Corrections Act

Amend the Community Corrections Act (CCA) and increase Amend the Community Corrections Act (CCA) and increase diversionsdiversions

Implement demonstrations of impact when targeting higher risk Implement demonstrations of impact when targeting higher risk probationers and measure impact of evidence based practicesprobationers and measure impact of evidence based practices

Use COMPAS for risk and need assessments of probationers and Use COMPAS for risk and need assessments of probationers and improve case planning and case management effortsimprove case planning and case management efforts

Expand graduated sanctions and services for probationers – Expand graduated sanctions and services for probationers – including short stays in jail when possibleincluding short stays in jail when possible

Improve the use of the County Jail Reimbursement Program for Improve the use of the County Jail Reimbursement Program for diversionsdiversions

Reduce Length of Stay, Increase Releases and Reduce Reduce Length of Stay, Increase Releases and Reduce Returns to Prison under the MPRIReturns to Prison under the MPRI

Take MPRI up-to-scale in FY 2009 – NO EARLY RELEASESTake MPRI up-to-scale in FY 2009 – NO EARLY RELEASES Expand efforts to work with mentally ill prisonersExpand efforts to work with mentally ill prisoners Expand Review of Past ERD Prisoner Population by adding 5 new Expand Review of Past ERD Prisoner Population by adding 5 new

parole board members and increase number of parolesparole board members and increase number of paroles Implement CSG work group recommendations for parole reforms Implement CSG work group recommendations for parole reforms

immediately and decrease length of stay of prisonersimmediately and decrease length of stay of prisoners

2020

New Bed Space ProjectionsNew Bed Space ProjectionsPast ERD Prisoner Reduction StrategyPast ERD Prisoner Reduction Strategy

Experience over the past five years with MPRI and the Experience over the past five years with MPRI and the capability to focus on special populations statewide allow capability to focus on special populations statewide allow for greater attention to prisoners who have served time for greater attention to prisoners who have served time

beyond their Earliest Release Date (ERD)beyond their Earliest Release Date (ERD)

Number of prisoners past their ERD was over 17,000 in 2003Number of prisoners past their ERD was over 17,000 in 2003

From 2003 to 2008, number was slowly reduced to 15,000From 2003 to 2008, number was slowly reduced to 15,000

Beginning in June 2008 with statewide presence of MPRI and Beginning in June 2008 with statewide presence of MPRI and improved parole board resources, number has reduced to improved parole board resources, number has reduced to approximately 12,000 – allowing several prison closings in 2009approximately 12,000 – allowing several prison closings in 2009

Focus in 2009 is to further reduce past ERD population by another Focus in 2009 is to further reduce past ERD population by another several thousandseveral thousand

In addition, prison admission reduction efforts will be expandedIn addition, prison admission reduction efforts will be expanded

2121


UPDATED POPULATION PROJECTION: CSG Options & Stronger Past ERD Reduction: APRIL 30 STATUS

40,000

41,000

42,000

43,000

44,000

45,000

46,000

47,000

48,000

49,000

50,000

51,000

52,000

53,000


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Future Net Operating Capacity 2/09 Projection Update - 120% Cap, Short PVT, Max Parole, Less Past ERD

2222

New Bed Space ProjectionsNew Bed Space ProjectionsImpact and ReinvestmentsImpact and Reinvestments

Reduced Need for PrisonsReduced Need for Prisons Trends in community efforts to keep prison admissions lowTrends in community efforts to keep prison admissions low Increased paroles for past ERD prisoners – NO EARLY RELEASESIncreased paroles for past ERD prisoners – NO EARLY RELEASES Reduced technical violations and parolee failuresReduced technical violations and parolee failures Reassessment of classification approaches for prisoners will allow Reassessment of classification approaches for prisoners will allow

re-configuration of prison systemre-configuration of prison system As prison space becomes available, prison closings will be assessedAs prison space becomes available, prison closings will be assessed

Reinvestments on the Front EndReinvestments on the Front End Expand use of sophisticated risk and need assessment approachesExpand use of sophisticated risk and need assessment approaches Improved offender based accountability plansImproved offender based accountability plans Improved comprehensive planning under PA 511Improved comprehensive planning under PA 511 Improved Collaborative Case Management approachesImproved Collaborative Case Management approaches Focus on offender employment using Stimulus fundsFocus on offender employment using Stimulus funds

Reinvestments on the Back EndReinvestments on the Back End $20M for MPRI and Parole Supervision expansion in FY 2009$20M for MPRI and Parole Supervision expansion in FY 2009 $24.2M more for parole services in FY 2010$24.2M more for parole services in FY 2010 $22.7M more for MPRI in FY 2010$22.7M more for MPRI in FY 2010 Improvements in prisoner education & academic trainingImprovements in prisoner education & academic training

Documents

Michigan Department of Corrections Updated Prison Bed Space Projections Impact from Probation, Community Corrections, Parole and the MPRI Presentation