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Michigan
Department of Corrections
Trends in Key Indicators
Through December 2017
(Data as of 2/15/2018)
31,000
32,000
33,000
34,000
35,000
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
41,000
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
50,000
51,000
52,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mo
nth
ly P
op
ula
tio
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Start of Year
Michigan Department of Corrections
ACTUAL PRISON POPULATION SINCE 1991
After growth of 20,000+ inmates in 16 years, a decline of 8,650 in 5
years, and 3 years of stability, the prison population decline continues.
51,554March 2007
----------------Peak Population
2
39,666December 2017
----------------Down to
1996 prison levels*
*And 1993-1994 total prisoner population levels whenMichigan had halfway houses (CRP)
3
The new prison population projection anticipates a continued but
slowing decline as a baseline forecast absent any new initiatives.
36,000
37,000
38,000
39,000
40,000
41,000
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
48,000
49,000
50,000
51,000
52,000
53,000
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22
Nu
mb
er
End of Month
Michigan Department of Corrections
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED PRISON POPULATION
Actual Prison Population 02/2018 Prison Population Projection
54,48255,545 56,155
59,35760,177
58,113
55,592
53,422
50,862 50,641 50,81749,201
47,480 47,347 46,684
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Total Felony Court Dispositions (Offenders)
Front End Impact: After peaking in 2007, annual felony court dispositions continue a
slow downward trend for a tenth year.
4
48,19047,620
50,599
52,597
50,570 50,717
53,992
55,605 55,17154,581
53,375 53,87254,854
57,23057,899
58,497
52,893
49,176
47,52846,812
45,219 44,99144,089
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Year-End Probation Population
5
Front End Impact: The felony probation population increased from 2005
through 2010 to a record high, but has since declined by nearly 25%.
3,333
3,479
4,228
3,706
3,494 3,481
3,643
3,359
2,850
2,632
2,481 2,507
2,6342,705
2,556
2,405
2,2492,169
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Probation Violator Intake*
*Includes probation technical violators and probationers with a new sentence.
6
Front End Impact: Probation violator intake has decreased from 2002 and data through
2017 showed a continued decline to nearly 50% since 2002.
7
Front End Impact: The prison commitment rate continues to remain in a fairly
narrow, 19-22%, range since 2003.
21.9%
20.3%20.9%
21.7%
20.7%
19.4% 19.3%
20.3% 20.2%20.7%
21.6% 21.7% 21.5%21.0%
19.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Prison Commitment Rate*
* The prison commitment rate is the percentage of all felony court dispositions that are sentenced to prison.
9,169
9,5849,424
8,8098,922
9,610
11,050
10,311
9,811
10,241
11,094
10,705
9,715
9,2959,158
8,7568,882
9,2378,983
8,664
8,085
7,695
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Prison Intake*
* Includes new court commitments, probation violators (technical or new sentence), parole violators new sentence, and escapee new sentence.
8
Front End Impact: Annual prison intake decreased by 21% from 2007 to 2011 and then
increased for 2 years. Through the end of 2017, the decline since 2013 continues, to levels
not seen since before 1988.
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Prison Intake by Cumulative Minimum Term in Months
0-12 13-24 25-60 61+ (incl. life)
9
Impact on Length of Stay: For nearly two decades now, the 13-24 month min terms make
up the bulk of the prisoner intake, though 25-60 month min terms were tops in the 1990’s.
10
Impact on Length of Stay: As a proportion of intake the shift from 25-60 month minimums
to 13-24 month mins is clearer and 0-12 month mins are consistently in the low teens.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Percent of Prison Intake by Cumulative Minimum Term in Months
0-12 13-24 25-60 61+ (incl. life)
47.046.1
48.949.9 49.2 48.7
50.148.7 48.7
50.148.7
44.042.6
44.0
41.943.2
42.2
44.1 43.7
45.4
49.648.6
47.5
49.9
51.7 52.251.4
53.2
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Prison Intake by Average Cumulative Minimum Term in Months
11
Impact on Length of Stay: The average minimum term shows the influence of the surge in
13-24 month minimums in the 2000’s and the steady impact of the 61+ month minimums.
68.2%
64.6%
61.1%
63.3%
57.4%
55.0%
57.9%
55.3%
51.3% 51.5%
47.3% 47.7%48.4%
51.8% 51.5%
54.7%
51.7%52.5%
58.1%
62.4%
55.9%
65.5% 65.0%
67.6%
65.1%
68.0%
71.2%72.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Parole Approval Rate
12
Impact on Length of Stay: The parole approval rate edged up in 2016 and 2017 as first
hearing prisoners become more prepared to successfully reenter society before PB review.
17,597 17,67317,225
20,03720,460
21,568
22,255
23,74724,109
23,583
20,915
21,902
23,770
22,164
26,752
21,800
17,110
15,847 16,02015,593 15,604
14,84814,581
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Parole Board Decisions
13
Impact on Releases: After a record high in 2009, PB decisions are stable but lower as
prisoners are more prepared to successfully reenter society at their first parole hearing.
9,078
9,465
8,758
10,506
9,682
9,133
10,001
10,697
11,752
11,344
10,284 10,240
12,429
11,557
13,542
12,138
11,162
9,361
10,554
10,110 10,019
10,601
9,886
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Moves to Parole
14
Impact on Releases: After a record high in 2009, moves to parole are fairly stable.
12,753 12,713 12,57313,047
13,653 13,706
14,545
15,592
17,449
18,104
17,168
16,029
18,362
20,379
22,237 22,183
20,129
18,21817,964
16,767
15,609 15,658
14,589
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Year-End Parole Population Under Active Supervision*
* Includes Interstate Compact parolees here and Residential Reentry parolees.
15
Impact on Releases: The parole population peaked in 2009, and has since
declined by 34% due to successful parole completions & stable moves to parole.
851
969
1,051
1,174
1,299
1,449
1,629
1,699 1,714
1,925 1,929
1,781
1,713
1,655
1,502
1,188
1,126
961
898
849 833
647
555
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Discharges on the Maximum Sentence
16
Impact on Releases: Since peaking in 2005, discharges on the maximum
continue over a decade of decline due to the higher parole approval rate.
45.744.9
43.5
41.9
39.3 39.1
40.8 40.6
36.5
33.2
31.530.6
29.0
30.331.0
29.8
28.1
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Michigan Department of Corrections
Return to Prison Rate*
* Includes cases that were returned to prison on Parole Technical Violations or for a New Sentence within three years of parole release.
17
Impact on Returns: Since establishing the baseline for recidivism in 1998, there has been continuing
improvement with a fairly stable rate between 2008 and 2013 in the 29%-32% range. The Return to
Prison Rate for 2014 hit an all-time low of 28.1% (placing Michigan in the top 10 states in the country).
890
1,033
1,2881,345
1,259
1,1661,195
1,441
1,644
1,802
1,879
2,0201,985
2,0251,970
1,794
1,525
1,406 1,393
1,267
1,1591,105
1,029
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Parole Violator New Sentence Intake
18
Impact on Returns: The parole violator new sentence intake resulting from
new felony prosecutions continues its decline for the ninth year.
1,916
2,577
2,668
3,1103,186
3,111
3,2363,289
2,161
3,013
2,859
3,157
2,094
1,878
2,127
2,373
1,893
2,698
2,020
1,686
1,854
1,958
1,691
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Michigan Department of Corrections
Parole Technical Violator Returns to Prison
19
Impact on Returns: Parole technical violator returns to prison have returned to
twenty year lows and are down nearly 50% from the 2002 high.
