The impact of climate change on agricultural production in drought prone areas. The case of Mbire (2000-2014)

By

Michael Tigere (R0723677X)

A dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Masters of Arts in Development studies of the Midlands State University

Supervisor MS E NCIIZAH

June 2015

1

Approval formThe undersigned certify that they have supervised the student Michael Tigere dissertation entitled: The impact of climate change on agricultural production in drought prone areas. The case of Mbire 2000-2014 submitted in Partial fulfilment of the requirements of the Masters of Arts in Development Studies (MADS) at Midlands State University.

. SUPERVISORDATE

. CHAIRPERSONDATE

...EXTERNAL EXAMINERDATE

DeclarationI, Michael Tigere, declare that the thesis hereby submitted for the degree of Master of Arts (MA) at the Midlands State University is my work and has not been previously submitted to another University.

Signature:

Date

Place: Midlands State University

DedicationFirst and foremost I dedicate this dissertation to my Lord and savior Jesus Christ who chose me in my mothers womb and appointed me into this field .I appreciate the anointing that he deposited upon my life that has enabled me to complete this work, I further appreciate the inspiration from the Holy Spirit who enabled me to persevere through the good and the bad times, the hunger and those days of great trial and tribulation.

PSMALS 91

AcknowledgementsFirstly I would like to thank the Almighty God who guided me in the writing of this masters dissertation. I also want to extend my profound gratitude to MRS E NCIIZAH who was my supervisor for her guidance and continuous encouragement in the writing of this dissertation. My appreciation also extends to my family and friends for their unwavering support, may the Lord bless you. I would like to thank Mbire district council, AGRITEX officers, ward officers, meteorological department for their information and cooperation.

Acronyms

DA.District AdministratorEEA........................................................................................European Environmental AgencyFEWSNET..Famine Early Warning Systems NetworkGHF.............................................................................................................Global Human FundIFAD..............................................................International Fund for Agricultural DevelopmentIPCC.......................................................International Governmental Panel on Climate ChangeMDG.........................................................................................Millennium Development GoalsNGOs.......................................................................................Non Governmental OrganisationUNEP.........................................................................United Nations Environmental ProtectionUNFCCCUnited Nations framework Convention on Climate Change USAID.United States Agency for International DevelopmentWMA....................................................................................World Meteorological AssociationWRI......................................................................................................World Resource Institute

AbstractClimate change and variability are the major constraints to agricultural production in drought prone areas. Small holder farmers are facing negative effects due to the changes of the weather patterns in Mbire. Prolonged hot and dry temperatures have affected the growth of plants and have resulted in low production. Climate change has led to, death of livestock, bush fires, soil erosion, pest increase, poor plant germination, deterioration of infrastructure and crop production. Livestock and crops have failed to quickly adapt to these harsh climatic conditions which has negative effects on the overall food security plans for the nation at large. Adaptation methods have significantly contributed to the reduction of negative impacts of climate change and other changing socio-economic conditions. Due to the absence of proper extension services to farmers, many farmers have kept up with their traditional farming practices.

Table of ContentsApproval formiDeclarationiiDedicationiiiAcknowledgementsivAcronymsvAbstractviChapter One: The problem and its setting2Introduction2Background to the study2Statement of problem12Justification of study13Objectives14Limitations of the study14Ethical Considerations15Conceptual framework17Chapter Two: Literature review19Introduction19Climate change trends19Concern about climate change22Impact of climate change of livelihoods26Climate change adaptation33Climate change in Zimbabwe36Chapter Three: Research Methodology47Study Population47Research Design49Data collection49Chapter four - Data Presentation and Analysis56Introduction56Agricultural vulnerability in Mbire District56Soil60Health61Diseases and pests66Livestock67Climate change perceptions70Deforestation and climate change72Effects of deforestation73Food insecurity75Climate adaptation and agricultural development76Chapter Five: Conclusion and Recommendations93Recommendations96

Chapter One: The problem and its settingIntroductionThis is an introductory chapter, highlighting the background of study, description of study area, aim of study, problem statement, justification of study, research objectives, delimitations and limitations of the study. Theoretical framework and ethical considerations will also be highlighted in this chapter.

Background to the studyAgricultural production is the most sensitive phenomena to climate because it depends on natural heat for energy and water, which are both climate-related variables. According to Murungweni (2009) approximately seventy percent (70%) of Africans or close to 700 million people rely on farming as a means for living, more than 95% of it is rain fed. Changing weather patterns due to climate change is therefore expected to decrease agricultural yields in drought prone areas by as much as 50 per cent as early as 2020 (Hulme, 2006). Changing weather patterns reinforces the need for the region to consider long-term constraints that any future climate changes may place on agriculture (Eriaksen , 2007).

Climate change affects all countries in the world. Extreme weather conditions like drought and floods have become more intense and more frequent with far reaching destructive effects on the livelihoods of people especially those in developing countries and more so, those engaging in climate sensitive economic activities such as agriculture. All categories of agricultural workers are therefore affected. Droughts and floods are destroying crops and harvest of farmers in developing countries leaving them in a miserable situation and threatening their livelihood. As in most of the African countries, the majority of the workforce in Zimbabwe (almost 60%) is working in the agricultural sector but contributes just a little percentage to the national GDP (Ibid). Most of the farmers are living in abject poverty, struggling with life and just managing to survive by scraping for a living through multiple informal economic activities because the unpredictable nature of the weather pattern has forced them to seek other new forms of making a living. These of course mean an immense toll on the livelihoods of families, especially those in the rural areas.

Global climate change is one of the most critical challenges facing the international community today. Climate change is threatening to undo decades of development efforts due to its negative impacts on agriculture, health, environment, roads, and buildings especially in developing countries (GoU, 2007; IPCC, 2007; Mendelssohn et al., 2006; Stern, 2007). From a food security perspective, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is arguably the most vulnerable region to many adverse effects of climate change due to a very high reliance on rain fed agriculture for basic food security, economic growth and entrenched poverty (Dixon et al., 2001; IPCC, 2007; Cooper et al., 2008). Climate change has become a huge global concern posing many threats in most economic sectors around the world.

Zimbabwe is a landlocked country in southern Africa, lying between latitudes 15 and 23 south of the Equator and longitudes 25 and 34 East of the Greenwich Meridian. Its area is 390,757 square kilometers (Ibid). The country is bordered by Mozambique to the East, South Africa to the South, Botswana to the West and Zambia to the North and North-west. Zimbabwe has two major perenial rivers that is, the Zambezi River to the north and the Limpopo River to the south, and these two rivers form Zimbabwes borders with Zambia and South Africa, respectively (Knox, 2012). In Zimbabwe, there are three broad relief regions which are generally recognized on the basis of elevation that is the Low-veld (below 900m), the Middle-veld (9001200m) and the Highveld (12002000m) (Ibid). Moreover, a slender belt of mountains (20002400 m), the Eastern Highlands that runs from the north to south along the eastern border with Mozambique and the deep gap of the Zambezi River Valley forms the border line with Zambia in the northwest (Ibid). The climate is largely influenced by relief, as the rainfall increases with altitude. The average/mean annual rainfall varies from below 400mm in the extreme south of the Low-veld to above 2000mm on isolated mountain peaks in the Eastern Districts. In the middleveld, rainfall ranges from 500mm to 700 mm and that of the Highveld from 800mm to 1000 mm (Ibid).

In Zimbabwe the pattern of rainfall is distinctly seasonal, with approximately 90% falling in 6 months from the first of October to the end of March. Rainfall pattern is in the form of intense tropical downpours and is characterized by its extreme variability in both time and space (Salick, 2007). In Zimbabwe, three seasons can be distinguished that is a hot and dry spring from mid-September to the onset of the rains, a hot but moist summer covering the rainy season, and a dry winter period consisting of cool nights and warm cloudless days lasting from April to September. The sandy, relatively infertile soils that cover some two-thirds of the country constitute the main soil type in the communal areas. Isolated areas of heavier more fertile soils occur throughout the country, the largest pockets being on the Highveld. Fertile irrigable basaltic vertisoils occur extensively in the southern Lowveld (Takahashi K. 2007).

Agricultural production in Zimbabwe is diverse as compared with many tropical countries. Maize, Cotton, Tobacco and sugar dominate crop production, with groundnuts, sorghum, wheat, coffee, tea, citrus, coffee and vegetables making significantly smaller monetary contributions (Salick, J. and Byg, A. 2007). Maize dominates crop production, covering more land than all other crops (approx 1.5 million hectares). Tobacco is increasing amongst the commercial and subsistence farmers; tobacco production has steadily increased since 1980. Small scale communal farmers prefer burley tobacco because it requires less rigorous curing. Rainfed cotton grown in the central and northern parts of the country and under irrigation in the Lowveld supplies the needs of the local textile industry and provides 70% excess for export (Ibid). Sorghum, maize and vegetables are the principal subsistence crops. Agriculture production for family consumption remains paramount in the majority of peasant farmers in drought prone areas. Cotton, sunflowers and groundnuts are the major cash crops for communal farmers. Peasant farmers now produce half the total cotton crop, 75% of the sunflower and 80% of the sorghum. Coffee has been promoted as a peasant crop in the Eastern Highlands but production remains small (Ibid).

Zimbabwes economy is dominated by agriculture and small holder farming sector. Agricultural sector in Zimbabwe provides employment and livelihoods for about 70% of the population, including 30% of formal employment, and accounts for about 4050% of the countrys total export revenues (Odenkule, 2006). Approximately three-quarters of the population in Zimbabwe live in the rural smallholder farming sector and depend on agriculture for their livelihoods). Moreover, the agricultural sector contributes about 17% to the countrys GDP (FAO 2005). Agriculture is also an important source of raw materials, providing about 60% of raw materials for the manufacturing sector in the country (Bautista, 2002).Southern Africa has been severely affected by droughts since the 1990s, some areas of southern Zimbabwe and south-eastern Botswana have received low rainfall amounts as low as 10% of the average value during the rainy season ( Kandji 2006). In East Africa some areas have experienced severe impact in terms of the availability of water resources, food and agricultural security resulting from increased temperatures and decline in rainfall (Hulme, 2001). In Western Africa, Odekunle (2006) has attributed famine and food insecurity in the savanna regions of Nigeria to crop failure due to insufficient and untimely rainfall.

There is increased concern in Southern Africa regarding the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Low rainfall and increasing temperatures have had a negative and severe impact on food security and agricultural production (Parry, 2009). Evidence from scientists has revealed that average annual temperature has increased significantly and it is expected to further increase at a rate of 0.05C per decade, while rainfall has been unpredictable, decreasing on average at a rate of 5 to 10% per annum, with annual anomalies mostly below normal (Kurukulasuriya 2006). Climate changes are expected to have serious social and economic impacts, particularly on agricultural productivity and on rural farmers who rely on climate-sensitive economic activities, such as rain-fed agriculture (Mannak, 2009).

Low levels of advanced technology and limited information on climate change exacerbates or worsens farmers inability to adapt to climate change (Parry 2007).Farmers in Africa perceive that there is an increase in temperature and a decline in rainfall. Many farmers have done little to adapt to these changing circumstances. Studies which have been carried out on African farmers responses to climate change suggests that there is limited information about climate change and lack of access to institutions dealing with climate change strongly impede farmers ability to adapt to such climate changes and this will eventually lead to low agricultural production (Eyzaguirre & Iwanaga, 2009)

Why is Climate Change a Concern in AgricultureNumerous factors shape and drive the agricultural sector which range from market fluctuations, changes in domestic and international agricultural policies (such as the form and extent of subsidies, incentives, tariffs, credit facilities, and insurance), management practices, terms of trade, the type and availability of technology and extension, land-use regulations and biophysical characteristics (availability of water resources, soil quality, carrying capacity, and pests and diseases) are among the set of primary influences (S Gukurume, 2010). Given its inherent link to natural resources, agricultural production is also at the mercy of uncertainties driven by climate variation, including extreme events such as flooding and drought. Over the last decade or so, climate change (in terms of long-term changes in mean temperature or precipitation normals, as well as an increased frequency of extreme climate effects) has gradually been recognized as an additional factor which, with other conventional pressures, will have a significant weight on the form, scale, and spatial and temporal impact on agricultural productivity (Hulme, 2006).

The general consensus to emerge from the literature is that in the absence of adequate response strategies to long-term climate change as well as to climate variability, diverse and region-specific impacts will become more apparent. Some impacts are expected to be adverse; others, favourable (Takahashi, 2007). At times, impacts will be slow to unfold, enabling local farmers and national governments time to respond. The distribution of impacts will vary as both the ability to respond to impacts and resources with which to do so vary across nations. In other cases, impacts will be unexpected, and appropriate responses may not easily be known or implemented in advance. Impacts of climate variability and change on the agricultural sector are projected to steadily manifest directly from changes in land and water regimes, the likely primary conduits of change (Ibid). Changes in the frequency and intensity of droughts, flooding, and storm damage are expected. Climate change is expected to result in long-term water and other resource shortages, worsening soil conditions, drought and desertification,, sea-level rise disease and pest outbreaks on crops and livestock (Ibid). Vulnerable areas are expected to experience losses in agricultural productivity primarily due to reductions in crop yields (Rosenzweig et al, 2002). Increasing use of marginal land for agriculture (especially among smallholder farmers) is anticipated as the availability and productivity potential of land begins to decline.

Zimbabwe has a sub-tropical climate with four seasons; cool season from mid-May to August, hot season from September to mid-November, the main rainy season running from mid-November to mid- March and the post rainy season from mid-March to mid-May. The mean monthly temperature varies from 15oC in July to 24oC in November whereas the mean annual temperature varies from 18oC on the Highveld to 23oC in the Lowveldt (Unganai, 2006). The lowest minimum temperatures (7oC) are recorded in June or July and the highest maximum temperatures (29oC) in October, or if the rains are delayed, in November. The climate is moderated by the altitude with the Eastern Highlands enjoying cooler temperature compared to the low lying areas of the Lowveld. Zimbabwe is generally a semi-arid country with low annual rainfall reliability. The average annual rainfall is 650 mm but geographically it ranges from around 350 to 450 mm per year in the Southern Lowveld to 1,000 mm per year in the Eastern Highlands (Ibid). The most farmed crops in Mbire are small grains, maize, sugar beans and soya beans. The farmers also engage in animal rearing and the common ones being cows, goats, pigs and poultry. Due to the increasing demand for food and lack of jobs or any viable economic activities that generate income for rural dwellers, it is now necessary for rural peasant farmers to embark on small scale farming as a means of filling the food demand and supply gap and providing income for other households requirements. In addition, the practice of rural peasant agriculture has continued to increase in recent years with the structural adjustment of the Zimbabwean economy around 1986. The rise in food price, un- employment and inflation brought by the structural adjustment (World Bank, 1990) and the decline in the average real income of both rural and urban households has compelled many rural dwellers to embark on small scale farming to put food on the table and also in some cases to even provide for family and relatives that dwell in the urban areas.

However, efforts of these small scale farmers are being weakened by climate change. Recent reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2000, 2007, 2012) concluded that not only green-house gas emissions are already beginning to change the global climates but also that Africa will experience increased water stress, decreased yields from rain-fed agriculture, increased food insecurity and malnutrition, sea- level rise, and an increase in arid and semi-arid land as a result of the climate change process.

Agriculture and its importance in ZimbabweAgriculture is a very important sector not only in Zimbabwe but also in the entire southern African, in terms of subsistence, contribution to GDP is about 35 percent, employment 70-80 percent of the total labour force and foreign exchange earnings about 30 percent (Abalu and Hassan, 1998). It also remains the main source of livelihoods for most rural communities in the region. To the Zimbabwean economy, the agricultural sector plays an important role through its impact on overall economic growth, households income generation, and food security. This sector is, however, dualistic, comprising of large and small-scale sectors. The large-scale sector, until recently, used to be well resourced and predominantly located in high agricultural and economic potential areas of the country (Tekere and Hurungo, 2003). On the other hand, the smallholder farmers are characterized by both marginality and remoteness in that most of them are located in areas that experience low and highly variable rainfall, high temperatures, have poor soils.

Mbire Mbire district is located in region four, which traditionally receives very little rainfall. It is one of the districts that have been greatly affected by climate change. Climate change in Mbire is evidenced by droughts and floods. Previously first rains well-known locally as the gukurahundi or bumharutsva used to be received in late September or early October. Nowadays however, Mbire community receives rainfall, that is if they receive any rainfall at all around December.

As a result of climate change, the population in Mbire can no longer rely on farming as a source of livelihood as they used to do in the past. Farming is increasingly becoming a very unreliable source of earning a living and means to adapt to climate change are being explored which have ranged from depopulation in the area due to a mass exodus of farmers from areas such as Mbire, Dande among others in that region to greener pastures. Former farmers in Mbire have also been reported to have resorted to alluvial mining, cross border trading, small scale trading and money lending as ways to earn a living since agricultural production has proved to be a thorn in the flesh for most of them.

The change in climate in the past ten years has also created a host of other problems for the inhabitants of Mbire which include a sharp increase in Malaria and sleeping sickness epidemics. This has made the Mbire a no go area not only for farmers but also for government workers such as teachers and nurses which has an overall impact of affecting the entire development scope of the area. Thus, climate change has not only affected agricultural productivity in Mbire but it has affected other areas of development in this region.

Mbire is located in a low-lying and semi-arid region which receives low annual rainfalls of about 300mm per annum. This is confirmed by the Food and Agricultural Organization, Zimbabwe, which averred that in semi-arid Zimbabwe, water is by far a greater constraint than land (FAO, 2005). Receiving low rainfall and experiencing high temperatures, Mbire is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change in Zimbabwe. This in itself means that the agriculture sector in the aforementioned area is quite vulnerable with marginally productive areas probably shifting to non-agricultural use.Statement of problemThe impact of Climate change in Zimbabwes agricultural sector has led to changing rainfall patterns, temperature increases and more extreme weather patterns such as droughts and floods. Longer and more frequent droughts have substantially led to the decrease in crop yields and this has negatively impacted on overall food production in the country. This Impact of climate change from the late 90s has created a vicious cycle of hunger pestilence and social misery especially for the inhabitants in drought prone areas.

This above scenario has not only affected commercial farmers but also subsistence farmers to the extent that most farmers are resorting to other means of survival besides agriculture and areas such as Mbire are becoming more and more depopulated as this population exodus is shifting to areas with adequate rainfall. If one compares the agricultural outputs of the mid 90s one can discover that bumper harvests were received even in these places. Starting from the early 2000 these areas have recorded high levels of droughts and have been living from NGO handouts. More so, it has been known even during the advent of colonialism that Zimbabwe only experienced droughts every 10 year period but currently droughts have been recorded in these areas continuously.

However, one is forced to wonder that the continuation of droughts and famine in these areas is not only a result of climate change but also a product of other factors such as the early 2000 land reform programme, economic limbo in the country, inexperienced farmers, economic sanctions, lack of agricultural resources to name but a few. Hence there is need to investigate the role of climate change along with other factors so as to come up with a possible panancea to the decrease in agricultural production in drought prone areas such as MbireJustification of studyThe inhabitants will benefit from the information from the research since it will assist policy makers to come up with new coping strategies to handle the adverse effects of climate change in drought prone areas such as Mbire and others. In Mbire, this research has not been conducted yet hence the research will help academias, researchers and policy makers. There is consensus that climate is changing and that many sectors including agriculture will be affected under future climates.

In Africa negative impacts are mostly expected and rural communities in this region are the most vulnerable. It is also envisaged that current coping strategies against climatic variability which the farmers are employing may not offset the impacts of future climates. The afore-stated circumstances call for action to be taken if agriculture is to continue to play its pivotal role of supporting national economies in Africa and ensuring household food security across the regions. Agriculture is particularly important to the rural communities as they rely on animal and crop production for their livelihoods.

Research aimThe research is mainly focused on showing the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in drought prone areas focusing on Mbire as a case study.

ObjectivesThe study aims to: Show the impact of climate change on food security in Mbire Identify and assess the coping mechanisms placed by individual households and the community to cope up with climate change Come up with possible solutions to deal with climate changeResearch Questions What are the best mechanisms that can be implicated to resolve climate change effects in Mbire? To what extent has climate change affected the agricultural output in Mbire? How does climate change affect agricultural production? Which farming methods are being used to cope up with climate change? How effective are the methods which are being used to cope up with climate changes?Limitations of the study Accessibility of the area: its remote Information/data concerning meteorological data which has to deal to Mbire is hard to come by. Inhabitants in Mbire are still a bit traditional so its quite difficult for them to accept strangers/researchers. They would think you are spying on them or a political henchman sent to investigate them concerning their loyalty to the government. As a result, they gave responses that did not present the government in any negative position for fear that they would lose their land.

However, the researcher had to come up with ways to combat these difficulties such as getting meteorological data from the centers surrounding Mbire which have similar climatic conditions. Concerning the suspicious responses of the inhabitants the researcher had to first seek permission from local authorities such as politicians, chiefs and village heads and get documents stating the mission of the researcher. This went a long way in dealing with negative stereotypes which may try to withhold precious information on the grounds of authenticity and suspicion of the research.

DelimitationsThe research was conducted in Mbire district, Mashonaland Central Province of Zimbabwe. In this research, the researcher investigated the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity in Mbire.

Ethical ConsiderationsEthical values of honesty, safeguard of privacy and well-versed agreement were used by the researcher in a bid to legalize the research. In special cases pseudo names were used by the researcher as a way of protecting peoples identities, a case in point, the researcher used pseudo names through the use of alphabetical letters. This also greatly removed the fear of respondents to partake in the interviews and questionnaires by so doing the respondents identities were protected

Honesty - The researcher honestly reported data, results, methods and procedures. The researcher did not fabricate, falsify, or misrepresent data.

Objectivity - The researcher strived to avoid bias in carrying out the research, data analysis, data interpretation and other aspects of research where objectivity is expected or required

Integrity - The researcher kept promises and agreements; acted with sincerity; strived for consistency of thought and action.

Carefulness - The researcher avoided careless errors and negligence. Records of research activities such as data collection will be kept safe.

Openness - The researcher shared data, results, ideas, tools, resources.

Confidentiality - Protection of confidential communications, such as papers, personnel records and patient records as has been highlighted above.

Informed Consent - Respondents were not be forced to participate in the research but they all volunteered. The researcher will also seek authority from the district administrator to carry out the research in Mbire

Conceptual frameworkIn this study, micro climates referred to the development of permanent weather patterns in small geographical regions as a result of adverse human activities which have become distinct from the general climatic conditions of the entire region. According to Iwanaga (2009) micro climates is a local atmospheric zone where the climate differs from the surrounding area. In this study climate change refers to changes in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean or the variability of its properties, and that persist for an extended period, typically decades, or longer" (Ibid). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forces or persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.

Climate variability on the other hand, refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes) of the climate on all spatial and temporal scales beyond that of individual weather events (IPCC, 2007). The main driver of climate change is global warming and the IPCC in its fourth assessment report states that, Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by observed increases in average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice as well as rising global average sea level.

Theoretical frameworkThe theoretical framework of this study is the human forcings theory propounded by Joseph Bast (2010). This theory espouses that mankind is the greatest impact on climate and is responsible for the transformation of the Earths surface by clearing forests, irrigating deserts, and building cities. This theory was used to explain climate change in Mbire as a result of human activities that have led to droughts in the region. Roger Pielke, Sr., a climatologist at the University of Colorado supports the human forcings theory, he asserts that although the natural causes of climate variations and changes are undoubtedly important, the human influences are significant and involve a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not limited to, the human input of carbon dioxide .

According to Joseph Bast's (2010) deforestation theory of human activities whereby he posited that, the removing of trees by burning, a common practice in developing countries especially rural areas like Mbire, releases CO2 into the atmosphere and prevents forests from sequestering carbon in the future. The pasture or crop land that replaces the forest lacks the shade created by a forest canopy and tends to be warmer. The IPCC has estimated that between one-quarter and one-third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions are due to deforestation, not the burning of fossil fuels, though this estimate has been challenged as being too high.This situation can be attested in Mbire, since the current environmental reports of the area indicate that deforestation has been a menace that has ravaged the entire landscape changing the weather patterns, creating droughts or dry spells in the region and reducing the landscape to a mere desert. This has been caused by human activities such as cutting firewood, building cattle perns, tobacco toasting, constructing houses among other activities. These activities have shifted the climatic patterns of the region resulting in the depreciation of agricultural produce forcing farmers to embark on a mass exodus southwards to Centenary which still has more favourable weather patterns for agricultural activities.

This theory of human input in changing weather patterns will be used in this research as it is the most plausible explanation concerning the situation in drought prone MbireChapter Two: Literature reviewIntroductionThis chapter will survey both local and international literature on climate change especially on issues pertaining to how climate change has positively and negatively affected agricultural productivity. This area of climate change has been covered by various international scholars in their regions but very little literature on local climate change is available. Many academias have written about how climate change is affecting development on a broader basis. Other scholars have covered about how climate change affects livelihoods and coping mechanisms to climate change. Literature reviewed covered a broad spectrum of aspects such as climate change and variability at global, regional and micro-scales. Literature review also covered aspects of how climate change affects agricultural productivity, coping mechanism, adaptation to climate variability and change.

Climate change trends

Climate change is among the most striking environmental challenges affecting the earth (Weart, 2004). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate change as change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. According to the UNFCCC climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to individual activities that alter the composition of global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods(Brown, 2004) . Climate change implies much more than how warm or cool global temperatures are. Global warming can be defined as an increase in global temperatures, climate change is defined by many factors such as temperature, air pressure, rainfall, wind and humidity and severe weather events (Kandji, 2006). Adger identifiedreasons which are for concern about climate change and showed schematically how their seriousness would increase with global mean temperature change. Some of the reasons outlined by Adger include, damage to ecosystems and their respective services upon which economies and human survival survive; the increasing rate and severity of extreme climatic and other natural events; the uneven distribution of climate change impacts, whereby low income populations, mostly the rural, who make up the bulk or the majority of the population in less developed countries are the most affected and vulnerable to climate change vagaries (Archer, 2010). Increased global mean temperature of 2C above 1990 levels or less would harm several such ecosystems, frequency and magnitude of many extreme climate-related events will increase with a temperature increase of less than 2C above 1990 levels (Adger, 2005).

According to the IPCC, the average temperature of the earths surface has risen by 0.75C since the late 1800s and it is likely to increase by1.8C to 4C by the year 2100 if no action is taken. It is a fast and intense change in geological time, Even if it only gets another 1.8C hotter, it would be a larger increase in temperature than any century-long trend in the last 10,000 years (Christensen, 2007). Average cold temperatures have increased at almost double the global average rate in the past 100 years. According to Fischer global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.3 to 2.3mm per year during 1961 to 2003 and at an average rate of about 2.4 to 3.8 mm per year from 1993 to 2003. Decreases in glaciers and ice caps have contributed to about 28 percent of sea level rise and losses from the polar ice sheets (Fischer, 2005)). Higher temperatures cause ocean volume to expand, as the bright white of ice and snow give way to dark sea green, less and less rays from the sun are reflected back into space, intensifying the heating (IPCC, 2007). The above mentioned physical changes are among key examples of potential vicious cycles identified by scientists that might result in global climate reaching at a rate beyond human imagination.

Increased consumption of fossil fuels for power in the economies of the world, the fact that almost all modern human endeavours produce carbon dioxide will result in climate change extremely complex and intricately tied up in other difficult issues such as poverty, population growth and economic development (Yohe and Schlesinger, 2002). Overwhelming evidence of anthropogenic climate change risks and associated implications on the global community resulted in the United Nations crafting the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Creation of the convention was fast, especially one on such a vastly complex issue and this was in response to a clear message that global warming was happening and something had to be done about it (Schneider, 2007). In Sub-Saharan Africa climate change trends being experienced, have resulted in Chishakwe observing that the region has been experiencing a warming trend over the past few decades. This is consistent with the global trend of temperature rise in the 1970s, 1980s and the 1990s. Temperatures in the sub-Saharan region have risen by over 0.50 C over the last 100 years (Smith, 2001). Between 1950 -2000, Namibia experienced warming at a rate of 0.0230 C per year (Government of Namibia, 2002). The Indian Ocean has also warmed more than 10 C since 1950. During this period, the region has also experienced a downward trend in rainfall (National Center for Atmospheric Research, 2005).Moreover, according to Glantz this can been characterized by belownormal rainfalls and frequent droughts for instance between 1988 and 1992 the subregion experienced over 15 drought events (Glantz, 1997). In sub-Saharan Africa, where there is a heavy reliance on natural resources for livelihoods, 61 percent of the population lives in ecologically marginalised and vulnerable areas characterized by a high degree of climatic change and sensitivity, these areas have a low degree of resilience (UNEP, 2002).

According to Calder, with reference to Zimbabwe there is evidence in the changing patterns of rainfall or rainfall variability that ranges between 30 and 35 percent, implying that most livelihoods in dry-land (or semi-arid) areas in are not only precarious but often unsustainable since they are already at the edge of subsistence (Calder, 2003). In the early 1990s rainfall in the region was 20 percent lower than that of the 1970s, with significant droughts in the 1980s, early 1990s and in 2002 (Chagutah, 2010). Ragab asserts that sub-Saharan Africas climate will be hotter and drier in the future than it is today; Ragab emphasizes that by 2050 in Sub-Saharan Africa the average annual temperature is likely to increase by between 1.5 and 2.50C for countries in the Southern end of the subregion if contrasted to the 1961 1990 average (Ragab, 2006). Calder observed that monsoons across southern Africa could be 1020 percent drier than the 1950 1999 average. Annual regional precipitation or rainfall is expected to drop by 10 percent, with greater reductions in the northern part of the subregion than in the southern part (Ziervogel and Calder, 2003).

Concern about climate changeClimate change in Mbire has got direct impacts on the biophysical world, which in turn happens to be the vital asset for human survival and economics. According to Thomas the state of the biophysical environment determines the productivity and availability of ecosystem services and goods to the human environment, livelihoods and wellbeing, among the biophysical elements affected by climate change is amount of rainfall received and its temporal distribution (Thomas, 2008). In the past decades in Mbire there have been noteworthy changes in rainfall patterns. More rains are received in some parts of the regions in Zimbabwe such as region 1 and 2 (Ziervogel and Calder, 2003). Globally areas affected by droughts or which are receiving low rainfalls have increased since the 1970s; this has resulted in increased prevalence and severity of the extremes of famine and food insecurity in some regions and drought in others. Extreme floods and droughts constitute a big risk to the economies, livelihoods, food security, health and general well being of the affected regions and communities. Globally floods have impacted negatively of the livelihoods of the people, floods in North America, Australia and Europe have become uncharacteristically more frequent and more disastrous in the past decade than ever before (Ibid).

According to IPCC (2007), in spite of the uncertainties associated with climate change, it is anticipated that warming will differ by region and be accompanied by significant changes in rainfall, sea level rise and changes in the frequency and intensity of some extreme events. In sub-Saharan countries such as Zimbabwe average annual temperatures have risen steadily over the past decades and a higher increase is predicted for the years to come (IUFRO, 2010). Current climate models project an increase in the mean temperature to rise from 3 to 4 _C across the continent by the end of this century, which would be roughly 1.5 times the global average increase. Climate change effects in Mbire have eventually exposed many people to physical, mental, and health risks especially in the district leading to spreading of diseases such as malaria which is influenced by climatic conditions, particularly humidity, rainfall, and temperature (Sueur, 2003).

Climate change directly affects agricultural production, as agriculture sector is inherently sensitive to climate conditions and is one of the most vulnerable sectors to the risks and impact of global climate change (Parry et al., 1999). According to UNEP (2008) humanity is living beyond its environmental means and running up ecological debts that future generations will be unable to repay as a result of global climate change. Agricultural production remains the main source of livelihood for rural communities in Africa, providing employment to more than 60 percent of the population and contributing about 30 percent of gross domestic product (Nhemachena & Hassan, 2007). Southern Africa is expected to experience increases in temperature and declining rainfall patterns as well as increased frequency of extreme climate events (such as droughts and floods) as a results of climate change (Nhemachena, 2008).

According to Kgakatsi (2006) climate change can be regarded as the silent enemy likely to affect already high risk and stressed agro ecosystems as the effects of climate change are not immediately visible. Limpopo province is particular vulnerable to climate variability and change as agricultural production depends on climatic conditions and largely on the quality of the rainy season. According to Letsatsi Duba (2009) climate change in Mbire is taking place in the context of other developmental stresses, notably poverty, unemployment and food insecurity which it is feared that it will exceed the limits of adaptation in other parts of the province. It is thus important to develop and implement effective adaptation measures so that climate-related risks and opportunities might support development objectives within provincial policy decision making processes (Kgakatsi, 2006).

Climate change affects agriculture in several ways, one of which is its direct impact on crop productivity (Ziervogel et al. 2006) and as a consequence hindering the prospects of achieving some of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG): to eradicate poverty and hunger; health improvement and sustainability (UNDP 2010). Several factors have contributed to the deepening poverty and underdevelopment. These include the difficulty in coping with climate variability in a continent subjected to frequent droughts, floods, extreme high temperatures and land degradation. In addition, various socioeconomic, demographic, political, institutional, and policy trends have limited the abilities to adapt to climatic variations (Rosenweig and Hillel 1998; Adger et al. 2007)

United Nations reports in Africa have shown that malaria constitutes 23% to 37% of child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa (Snow, 2003). Remote areas which are vulnerable have no refrigeration facilities thus the incidence of foodborne diseases is likely to increase significantly during higher temperature periods (Bartlett, 2008). Furthermore, too much rainfall in the community can transport faecal contaminants from shallow latrines into waterways ending up in drinking water supplies hence this can lead to the spread of various waterborne diseases. Zimbabwean economy is mainly agrarian; agriculture and the utilization of natural resources remain the driving force of the country and local economic development. Rural populations especially those in drought prone areas such as Mbire earn a living from the ecosystem goods and services for basic resources, income generation and employment. In Mbire the adverse effects of climate change conditions to which the country is exposed openly has an effect on the ecosystem goods and services, thereby significantly having an impact on the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of the national sustainable development. In Mbire increased severity and frequency of droughts events have become a major cause for concern. Africa has seen a growing proportion of the population becoming food and water-insecure especially given the fact that more than 70% of the population in the in sub-Saharan region depends on rain fed agriculture (Ziervogel and Calder, 2003). Impact of climate change of livelihoodsIn rural areas climate change has affected rural livelihoods, people of the world have evolved ways of earning livelihoods and supplying their needs for food, water, shelter and other goods and services that are adapted to benefit from the climates in which they live (Leary, 2007). Climate is variable, changeable and deviations that are too far from the norm can be disruptive or even hazardous. In Mbire small scale farmers are vulnerable to the unprecedented climate variabilities and changes taking place from the past years and today, though to varying degrees or extent (Tollatin, 2004). Changes in the climate in the district have exposed communities particularly small scale farmers to new and unfamiliar conditions. In Zimbabwe some farmers have taken advantage of the changes in climate thus a number of farmers are now facing increased vulnerability, particularly in the developing world (Moyo, 20102).

Climate change is affecting the prospects for sustainable development in many nations including Zimbabwe. Sustainable development is increasingly understood to encompass economic, social and environmental sustainability. Some of the key concepts for sustainable development are quality of life and survivability (Ayers, 2011). Impact of climate change on biodiversity may result in reducing the options for economic growth and development available to the present and future generations (Rajasree, 2010). Loss of biodiversity can also have an impact on the functioning and resilience thus the ability to adapt to change and handle stress of both natural and human systems (Biggs, 2004). Climate change effects on biodiversity in Mbire district have led to increased costs caused by droughts and also mudslides, fire and pests. Loss of the ecosystem such as nutrient cycling, water supply and pollination has adversely impact on human welfare and their livelihoods (Thornton, 2006).

In Zimbabwe climate change implications on economies, human health and general well being are projected to be far affecting rural livelihoods. According to the IPCC report agricultural yields are expected to decrease in many parts of Sub-Saharan, if the projected temperature increase is more than a few degrees. In the region crop productivity is expected to increase slightly at mid-to high latitudes for local average temperature increases of upto 1 to 3C depending on the crop and then decrease beyond that in some regions (medium confidence). Climate change studies in the region have shown that lower latitudes especially those in the seasonally dry and tropical regions crop productivity is estimated to decrease (1 to 2C) which would increase the risk of hunger. Climate change trends have shown that globally, the potential for food production is estimated to increase, with an increase in local average temperature over a range of 1 to 3C, but above this range, food production potential is projected to decrease (Mendelsohn, 2006).

In areas such as Mbire agriculture is affected by changing weather patterns such as changing river flows and rainfall patterns. Agricultural production has been affected as a result of changes in behavior of pests and species that are required for pollination and pest-control (Reilly, 2005). The health sector is also affected by climate change; the health status of the people in Mbire is projected to be affected through increases in malnutrition, increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather events. Climate change has also increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases, increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban areas related to climate change and the altered spatial distribution of some infectious diseases (Archer, 2010). Changing weather patterns in Mbire have resulted in diseases especially those carried by vectors like mosquitoes, spreading to new areas in the province (Githeko, 2006). Vectors such as mosquitoes which carry malaria and dengue survive and breed more efficiently in hotter temperatures hence diseases such as malaria have resulted in deaths of thousands in rural areas. The consequences are far reaching when a disease is introduced.

Changing rainfall patterns and temperature has lead to changes in runoff and water availability. According to Arnell runoff and consequent river discharge are projected to increase by 10 to 40% in higher latitudes and other populous areas in East and South-East Asia due to the thawing of ice caps (Arnell, 2004). Drought prone areas are likely to increase in extent, with the potential adverse impacts on multiple sectors such as agriculture productivity, water supply, energy production and health. In Africa it has been noted that an increase in irrigation water demand as a result of climate changes is projected (Bryceson, 2002). As compared to other regions in the world, the IPCC 2007 report suggests that sub-Saharan Africa is warming at a rate faster than the global average, and increasing aridity in many countries. It is estimated by the IPCC that by 2020, between 80 and 255 million of people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change.

According to Chishakwe (2010), the extreme climatic events that the subregion has been experiencing such as the El Nino related droughts are negatively impacting the inhabitants, agricultural productivity and economies of Southern Africa. Elnino events that destroyed livestock and human beings in 1965 and 1997 resulted in a significant decrease in agricultural production, thereby worsening food insecurity situation in the subregion. Moreover, warming of the Pacific Ocean in 1991 and 1992 resulted in one of the worst calamities the subregion has ever experienced (Glantz, 1997). Since 2001, conservative dry spells in the sub-region have led to food shortages. In Sub Saharan Africa six countries namely Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe, faced a food deficit of about 1.2 million tonnes of cereals and nonfood requirements in 2001 and 2002. The droughts that occurred in 2002 and 2003 resulted in a food deficit of about 3.3 million tonnes, it was also estimated that 13.5 million people were in need of assistance (Ziervogel and Calder, 2003)In sub Saharan Africa climate variability is projected to have severe macroeconomic consequences in the form of increasing prevalence of droughts and floods (Unganai, 2009). In Zimbabwe gross domestic (GDP) dropped by 3% and 11% due to the 1983 and 1992 droughts respectively, for instance the same droughts costed the Zambian government about US$350 million, this led to a US$ 1.7 billion deficit in 1992 and translated into a 42% drop in agricultural output produce and a 3% decline in the countrys gross domestic product (Unganai, 2009).

In the region some farmers benefited from the long growing seasons and higher yields, the general consequences for Africa is expected to be adverse for the poor and the marginalized, who cannot withstand drastic changes. In sub Saharan Africa some areas are likely to emerge as the most vulnerable to climate change by 2100, with probable agricultural losses of between 2, 2 and 7, 5 percent of affected countries gross domestic product. African region has a higher proportion of people living in absolute poverty than any other region of the globe (Moyo, 2012).

In third world countries rural poverty accounts for 80% of total poverty and approximately 75% of the poor still depend on agriculture or farm labour for their survival in rural areas (Otive, 2006). The number of people living in poverty in developing countries is increasing significantly, for instance the United Nations human poverty index in 2008 placed Zimbabwe amongst the 25 poorest nations in the world (UNEP, 2009). Poverty results in various negative impacts such as shortened lifespan, malnutrition and spreading of diseases such as HIV/AIDS (Anselm, 2010). The government of Zimbabwe has made efforts in attaining the MDGs, policies and legislation have been put in place to attain the MDGs especially poverty reduction. Global warming can adversely influence attainment of the MDGs; this can be as a result of reduction in soil moisture and water runoff to rivers caused by a warmer and drier climate that is triggered by increased frequency and intensity of El Nino events (Kandji, 2006). Global warming has affect crop production in Mbire hence this is critical in ensuring food security and poverty reduction in the district (Goal 1 of MDGs). Loss of biological diversity, land degradation and desertification has occurred as a result of increased aridity (Kandji, 2006). Land degradation and desertification will have serious impact on environmental sustainability (Goal 7 of the MDGs).

Climate disasters have affect children in Zimbabwe especially in Mbire thereby forcing them out of school due to increased poverty, remoteness, isolation, food shortages and child abandonment. Failure to attend primary education will affect the attainment of goal 2 of the MDGs. Studies by anthropologist have shown that when there are anticipated climate-induced disasters women often get a disproportionate share of burden because they have fewer opportunities than their male counterparts. Climate change disasters in Zimbabwe have affected women severely than men further undermining their development, education and reproductive roles thus affecting their welfare and that of their children. Climate change disasters directly have an impact on the attainment of the MDGs 3, 4 and 5 (Kanji, 2006).

Zimbabwean economy is agro based it relies on agriculture and natural resources to an extent that intensive and frequent droughts will impact on the critical sectors of national economies (Chaguta, 2010). Climate change impact on agricultural production can result in collapse of economies, the impact of a collapsed economy associated with disaster response operations may reduce the ability of governments to invest in important socioeconomic sectors hence affecting the attainment of MDGs 1 7 (Ayers, 2011).

World Bank (2006) survey revealed that out of every four of the worlds poor three live in the rural remote areas and this is projected to continue for the foreseeable future. Development aid and poverty alleviation strategies have failed to a greater extent in promoting sustainable development and addressing rural poverty. The rural poor are have no power to influence decision making and policy formulation thus they are less seen and even less in the nature of their poverty understood.

In Mbire it has been confirmed that climate change is happening with significant impacts on ecosystems, communities, agriculture and economies. Climate change effects have affected everyone in the community; it is expected to have a disproportionate effect on those living in poverty, especially in developing countries. Rural people constitute the bulk of the population in Zimbabwe hence they are more exposed to the changes in the climate because they are closer to the biophysical and experience limits of climate and because their adaptive capacity is lower (Kuik, & Smith, 2004). Climate change in Zimbabwe especially drought prone areas constitutes an additional burden to the already existing and persisting problems such as poverty, diseases, illiteracy, civil unrest, weak institutional capacity, unstable governments, poor infrastructure, and other global environmental change issues (e.g. land degradation, land-use change, desertification and biodiversity loss). Climate change implications in remote areas include the inability to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger and to ensure environmental sustainability, as a result the recognition of how climate change is likely to influence development priorities may therefore be a first step toward building cost-effective strategies/interventions and integrated, institutional capacity in third world countries to respond to the changes in climate (Beg et al., 2002).

Climate change impacts and vulnerability in Zimbabwe have proven to have considerable effects on all sectors of development. Changes induced by climate change will have an effect on natural and human systems directly or in synergy with other determinants to alter the productivity, diversity and functions of many ecosystems and livelihoods around the world. In Zimbabwe, climate variability may undermine many years of development efforts (IPCC, 2007). In drought prone areas like Mbire the vulnerability of the poor or the less privileged is compounded by the fact that poverty exacerbates and is exacerbated by the impacts of environmental change. In Mbire most of the recent natural disasters are weather, climate and water related (Ayanji, 2004)In Mbire rural livelihoods are highly dependent on climate-sensitive resources; over reliance on the ecosystem services can place their welfare and survival at the mercy of environmental conditions (Ayanji, 2004). The quality and availability of natural resources decline due to natural and human-induced pressures, so does the viability and security of their livelihoods and low adaptive capacity. Drought prone areas in Zimbabwe, the population in areas which are affected by climate change are at the high risk of climate hazards. Climate change hazards frequency and severity of climate shocks are repeatedly eroding the coping mechanisms adopted capacity in most of these areas, thus constraining their ability to meet basic needs and move out of poverty trap (Ibid). Vulnerability analysis can help to come up with possible solutions how and where society can best invest in vulnerability reduction.

Climate change adaptationClimate change adaptation is one of the major areas under discussion in the multilateral climate change process; this has increasingly turned out to be a key focus of the policy-making and scientific communities in recent years (Sonwra, 2013). UNFCC is the legal institution which provides a foundation for concerted international action to lessen climate change impacts and to adapt to its effects on agricultural production (United Nations, 1992).

Environmental transformations caused by changes in the climate are expected to be unprecedented (IPCC, 2007), local knowledge and coping mechanisms may provide a crucial foundation for community-based adaptation measures and complement broader scale scientific research with local precision. With current climate change impacts mitigation policies and related sustainable development strategies, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will continue to grow into the next century (Agrawwal, 2004). Concentrations of all global greenhouse gas and aerosols have been kept constant at year 2000 levels; a further warming of about 0.1C per decade would be expected. Anthropogenic warming and sea level is likely continue for years to come due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if global greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized (Mirza, 2003). Unsafe climate change future calls for innovative livelihood interventions to cope up with and adapt to the changing environment (Chagutah, 2010). Climate change adaption refers to taking measures to adjust to a new set of climatic attributes, either different from those already existing, or changed parameters of existing attributes (Ayers, 2011).

Adaptation can be defined as adjustments in ecological, economic, social systems in response to actual or expected climatic stresses and their effects or impacts on production (IPCC, 2007). The above definition includes both reactive and anticipatory adaptation. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change definition also includes both climate variability and change (Carney, 1998). Climate change adaptation is the process through which people in an area reduce adverse effects of climate variability on their health and well-being and take advantage of the opportunities that their climatic environment provides. Successful climate change adaptation to changing weather/environment patterns is a function of the means available to the affected people in an area and this is to do with adaptive capacity (Pittock and Jones, 2000). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines adaptive capacity as the ability of a system to adjust to the changes of climate, including climate variability and extremes to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences (IPCC WG II, 2001). Adaptive capacity is one of the determinants of a system that will influence the occurrence and nature of adaptations, other determinants susceptibility, coping range, sensitivity, vulnerability, stability, resilience, and flexibility (Adger, 2004). Sub Saharan countries are often regarded as having the lowest adaptive capacity to cope with climate change as they do not have access to technology, the least degree of development of social institutions, as well as the highest historical and existing stresses associated with climate change (Chagutah, 2010). Adaptive capacity is inversely correlated with vulnerability, hence in theory a society with high adaptive capacity experiences successful adaptation capacity and low vulnerability to changes of climate. Formal or direct indicators of adaptive capacity and vulnerability to determine vulnerable situations in communities and these include factors such as income, education, infrastructure and state of civil society among others.

IPCC notes that adaptive capacity is aimed dealing with climate risks and it is closely related to sustainable development and equity (Pilifosova, 2001). Some of the key determinants of adaptive capacity to sustainable development and climate change are improved access to resources, improved education, reduction of poverty, information, improved infrastructure, active participation by concerned parties to ensure that actions match local needs and resources (Moyo, 2012).

Coping and adapting may be used synonymously, but some are of the view that there are distinct differences between these terms (Rennie and Singh, 1996). Coping strategies are generally considered to be short-term in drought prone areas to ward off immediate danger, rather than to adjust to permanent or continuous threats or changes (Fankhauser, 1998). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines coping range as the variation in climatic stimuli that a system can absorb without producing significant impacts (Smith, 2001). From the definition above it clearly indicates that there are limits to coping mechanisms, which imply that in going beyond these a system will break down. Coping is not a sustainable solution which allows for adjustment but rather it is a temporary response. Coping strategies are regarded as part of the portfolio of options for responding to threats and events, particularly for poor households and communities in drought areas (Chambers, 1989).

Coping strategies are the strategies or interventions which are taken when faced with unfavourable climate conditions and not part of an ideal livelihood strategy thus coping can be regarded as a response to abnormal seasons or years (Madamombe, 1996). Some scholars are of the view that coping strategies do not necessarily indicate adverse conditions/situations to which an adjustment needs to be made, but rather a normal element of survival in sporadic conditions, faced particularly by subsistence farmers in sub Saharan Africa (Adger and Vincente, 2005).

In drought prone areas coping strategies are associated with increasing long-term vulnerability or the introduction of a different state of vulnerability through the implementation of actions. These actions which fulfil short-term needs and do not explicitly consider the consequences of these actions such as the excessive resource extraction or selling off assets during drought (Fankhauser, 1998). Some of these strategies may also be damaging to our environment in the future which will eventually lead to natural resource depletion or other problems that could compound the adverse impacts of hazards (Chagutah, 2010). Coping strategies make up a potential basis for the development of adaptation methods. Adapting and coping to changes in the climate are two relative and different ways to respond to climate risks that cannot be interchanged (Chishakwe, 2010).

Adaption and coping strategies may optimise trade-off between reducing sensitivity and increasing resilience and ultimately it is necessary as part of a response package to climate variability and change (Unganai, 2009). Food and Agriculture Organisation operationalisation framework for adaptation proposes a number of strategies to be used for sustainable climate change adaptation that can be used in the agriculture and food sector. It is also important to protect local food supplies, livelihoods and assets from the effects of the increased frequency, weather variability and intensity of extreme weather events.

Climate change in ZimbabweThe department of meteorological services in Zimbabwe has increasingly seen more hot days between 1950 and 1990(UNEP/GRIDA, 2002). An increase in average temperatures by 2C will result in a decrease of Zimbabwes wetlands from 9% to 2.5% and a 4C increase would reduce the summer water-surplus zones to less than 2% (Bohle et al., 1994: 47). Climate change will affect especially changes in temperature will affect agricultural production in drought prone areas particularly crop yields. Temperature increase by 4 C in Zimbabwe will result in a decline of maize by 27% in the north-east, and 20% in the south-east region, bordering Mozambique (Magadza, 1994). Climate change global simulation models such as Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model have revealed that the cessation, duration and onset of the effective rainfall seasons have become unpredictable and variable. Global warming has resulted in increased average temperatures in Zimbabwe causing the shifting of the traditional farming seasons and agro-ecological zones (natural farming regions). The period of 1960s, 70s, 80s and 90s droughts occurred after very decade that is every 10 years, the trend has changed as a result of the changes in the climate that have made the rainfall patterns in Zimbabwe difficult to predict and more unreliable. The frequency of dry spells and droughts in the 90s increased to four to five years in the late 90s. By 2000 the situation of droughts had worsened as droughts, erratic and unpredictable rainfalls become more successive from 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2007-2008. Successive occurrence in the country affected agricultural and food production significantly since the government had not adopted concise adaptation measures to mitigate the impact climate change.

It is projected that climate change will significantly affect agriculture production in drought prone areas in Zimbabwe to an extent that by 2050 there will be a general decrease in areas suitable for maize production growing from 80% to 75% while some areas in the South Western part of the country will become totally unsuitable for maize growing (www.zbc.co.zw). Maize is the staple food in Zimbabwe and diet, hence in nothing is done to address the effects of climate change the country will inevitably faces a major food security crisis in the coming years and exacerbating poverty. The worst affected drought prone areas are the drier parts of the country such as Chivi, Zvishavane, Mbire and Buhera were precipitation has declined significantly (Gogo, 2012). Increased deviation from the mean precipitation in the periods 1984-2002 shows that the level to which rainfall patterns is changing in Zimbabwe. There is need to promote the planting small grains or drought resistant crops such as millet, cow peas and sorghum to cope with the effects of climate variability and changes to ensure food security. Changes in the climate have posed a drastic threat to the agriculture industries in Zimbabwe as they continue to suffer from natural disasters and frequent occurrence of droughts. Droughts, cyclones and erratic rainfall have contributed to poor performance and low agricultural production in the country. Smallholder farmers will be especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change (IPCC, 2007). Their susceptibility is driven by all three elements of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007).

Smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe face biophysical and socioeconomic challenges, most notably degrading land resource bases and poorly functioning markets (Nyikahadzoi et al., 2012; Mapfumo et al., 2013). The adverse effects of climate change will interact or combine with existing and emerging biophysical and socioeconomic challenges to add an extra burden on smallholder farms (Vermeulen et al., 2012). Thus, apart from climatic risk, the extent of yield decrease will also depend on other factors, particularly on soil fertility management and market access (Chipanshi et al., 2003; Mapfumo et al., 2013). It is clear that smallholder farmers are sensitive to possible adverse changes in climate.

Climate change will increase the intensity of climate variability, extreme events and change variables that are critical for agricultural production such as air temperature (Unganai, 1996). Rainfall is a major driver for agricultural production in Zimbabwe. Given that surface air temperature has increased by 0.1C per decade between 1933 and 1993 and is projected to further increase by between 2C and 5C by 2100 in Zimbabwe (Unganai, 1996). A combination of droughts and temperatures are projected to reduce agriculture production in Zimbabwe (Lobell et al., 2011). There is already evidence that yields of major staple cereal food crops of the region such as millet, maize and sorghum will decline due to change in rainfall patterns and increased temperatures (Zinyengere et al., 2013).

The capacity of smallholder farmers in drought prone areas to adapt to the changing weather patterns and in particular to climate change and variability, is constrained by poverty and a limited capacity to switch to alternative livelihood options (Mapfumo et al., 2013). These circumstances have been exacerbated by lack of supporting policies and institutions (Nyagumbo and Rurinda, 2012).

Climate is a primary determinant of agricultural productivity and any adverse changes in it would likely have devastating effects in this sector causing crop failures and concomitantly affecting the livelihoods of the majority of the population that hinge on rain-fed agricultural practices for their mainstay, accounting for about 97% of the agricultural land (Calzadilla 2009). Community based adaptation is capable of reducing the vulnerability as well as improving on the resilience of the local people to climatic variability and change. Although subsistence farming thus far have a long history of coping and adapting to some of these changes, effective adaptation strategies and actions should therefore be aimed at securing the well-being of the subsistence farmers in the face of climatic changes (Ibid). However, until recently, most adaptation efforts have been top-down, and little attention has been paid to communities experiences of climatic variability and their efforts to cope with their changing environments. The top down focuses on multi-decadal global climate predictions involving quasi-linear responses dominated by increases in greenhouse gases which are downscaled to societal environmental impacts (Solomon et al.2007). Adaptation strategies should be geared towards a blend of the top-down and bottom-up platforms; starting from a sequence of analytical steps in the physical vulnerability, moving through the biophysical impacts and terminating at the socio economic response to climate which tend to be location specific (Dessai and Hulme 2004). Effective adaptation strategies aimed at securing the well-being of subsistent farming communities requires the involvement of multiple stakeholders ranging from policy makers, extension agents, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), researchers, communities and to a greater extend the subsistence farmers.

Crop productionThe principal crops produced in the Zimbabwean communal areas are maize, cotton, sugar, groundnuts, beans and cow peas. While the minor crops in commercial terms such as beans, cow peas and groundnuts are considered to be the crops for women. The major commercial crops which generate cash income are seen as mens crops, and these include Tobacco, Cut-Flowers, Raw Sugar Cane, Cotton, Chilled Vegetables, Coffee, Fruit, Tea (FAO, 2002). More often than not, the significant part of the crops that are produced commercially, are being exported to other countries. On the other hand, most of the crops that are produced in the communal area are for consumption. Although, the initial post independence period saw a major boom in commercial crop production in communal areas, the trend went down later. Cotton is one of the major crops produced for commercial purposes in both the communal and FAO (2002) observes that since 1950 cottons share in total fiber consumption has declined from over 80 to 40% in recent years. Cotton prices in the first nine months of 2001 declined by 14% compared to 2000. This was in response to a 6% increase in global production in 2001. Similarly, the decline was in part a result of US policies of increased public support to cotton production, although increased production in China and India also played a role. Prices were predicted to decline still further in 2002 by 4%. Furthermore, maize is another major crop in Zimbabwe. According to Unganai (2002), 80% of the population is directly involved in its production. The Grain Marketing Board of Zimbabwe receives 75% of its grain from Small holder/communal farmers. Thus maize is a very important income earner in the rural areas. From 1980 to 2001, the annual production of maize in Zimbabwe had been well above 200,000 Metric tonnes with the exception of 1990 when it fell drastically to 1,585,800. This drastic reduction was mainly accounted by the low production in the commercial sector. The communal sector however, continued to witness a general expansion in maize production despite annual fluctuation and inefficient production. Maize is not only a basic crop for household food security but also an important source of household cash income (Ibid). Therefore, any trade arrangements, which allow the import of cheap subsidised maize at prices that undermine local prices, will depress rural household incomes. Thus, this needs to be seen against the background of an existing situation of rapidly escalating input costs in the agricultural sector. The escalating costs have hampered production and reduced the economic benefits of maize production as a cash earner. Consequently, any reduction in the maize price as a result of the availability of cheap imported maize would compound this situation.

Animal productionThe commercial ranching sector of Zimbabwe provides a rare opportunity for estimating the efficiencies of extensive cattle and wildlife production systems. This is because there is a long history of commercial cattle ranching, and that landowners have the right to commercially use wildlife on their lands (Kreuter and Workman, 1996). In semi-arid African savannas, multispecies wildlife communities tend to use heterogeneous vegetation more completely than cattle alone (Kreuter and Workman, 1996). Although, erratic rainfall has generally restricted agricultural activities in these semiarid regions; hence wildlife has been used commercially since 1970s. Wildlife production may thus be the ecologically the most rational form of land use in these areas. Hence, wildlife that are common in Zimbabwe especially in the Midlands and Mashonaland central areas consists mainly of plains-game species but a few larger herbivores, like elephant, rhino, hippopotamuses, giraffe and buffalo. However, the most valuable game-species are leopard, eland, water buck, kudu, tsessebe, zebra, baboons, and different types of antelope (Kreuter, 2007). Considering the importance of livestock, a unit known as Department of Livestock Production and Development was established in 2002. The department is responsible for general animal husbandry and consists of two divisions. The livestock production division supports animal production and is the livestock outreach arm. While livestock development and schemes division links up with technology transfer, multiplication and breeding of animals and forage, responsible for breeding nucleus heads, gene banks for fodder and grass as well as new initiatives.

Agricultural manpowerGiven that agriculture is a key industry in the economy of Zimbabwe, a large number of the countrys population depend directly or indirectly on land for their means of livelihood. For example, the industry provides employment for 70% of the Zimbabwean population with employment (Weiner, Moyo, Munslow and OKeefe 1985; APRODEV, 2002). Further analysis shows that 71% of the total female population in Zimbabwe gain employment as communal area farmers, 20% are employed outside the subsistence sector, while 9% are classified as unemployed. The 20% of women employed outside the subsistence sector are involved in a wide variety of different occupations, such as casual laborers on commercial farms and in some instances as permanent laborers. A small minority are involved in farming under resettlement schemes (Ibid). Climate change maladaption in ZimbabweMal-adaptation can be changes in human or natural systems that inadvertently increase vulnerability to climatic stimuli, an adaptation that does not succeed in reducing vulnerability but increases it instead (Desanker, 2002). In Zimbabwe it has been evidenced that mal-adaptation may not only increase vulnerability but can also generate new risks. Some of the planned strategies or interventions have resulted in negative consequences for some in the rural areas. Climate change studies have shown that what can be perceived by one group as an adaptation and what is experienced by another as increased peril, actions taken in attempt to minimise risk that have negative ancillary impacts could be considered maladaptive. Mal-adaptation hazards have proved that the impacts of particular measures aimed at increasing the ability of one group to adapt or cope with certain changing conditions must therefore also be considered in a larger picture.

In Southern Africa especially Zimbabwe, farmers in rural farming areas adaptation to climate change at micro levels concurs that agricultural production remains the main source of earning a livelihood for rural communities, providing employment opportunities to more than 65% of the population and contributing about 35% of GDP. It has been noted that in drought prone areas in Zimbabwe small-scale farmers have a low capacity to adapt to changes in climatic conditions, policies that help these farmers adapt to global warming and associated extremes are particularly important (Brown, 2012). In Mbire farmers are detecting a rise in temperature over the past years, drier conditions and pronounced changes in the timing of rains and frequency of droughts (Unganai, 2009).

Some of the adaptation measures used by farmers in Zimbabwe include diversifying crops, planting different crops or crop varieties, crop rotation, changing planting and harvesting dates, replacing farm activities with nonfarm activities, increasing the use of irrigation and increasing the use of water and soil conservation techniques. Small scale farmers in drought prone areas in Zimbabwe barriers to sustainable adaptation measures include insufficient access to inputs, lack of credit, and lack of information on climate (Unganai, 2009).

Rural people in Mbire are mostly depended on forest resourcebased on household implements such as axe, hoe handles, pestles and mortars, cooking sticks, plates and bowls, ox yokes, ox-carts, drums, and hunting tools (Hulme, 2012). Income generating activities such as carving, carpentry, craft work, roof mending, thatching, selling wood fuel, thatching grass, wild fruit and vegetables constitute the largest source of woodland/forest based income for rural households in Zimbabwe and Southern Africa (Berkes, 2003).

ConclusionIn this chapter the theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of climate change on agricultural production have been discussed from global level to district level. Spatial patterns, concepts, and trends variability and climate change were introduced and discussed from a global to Mbire district level. Temperature and rainfall are the two key climate variables most notable in climate change assessments from a socio-economic perspective. Rainfall patterns, there is a notable declining trend in many African countries. Climate is one of the most important determinants of human survival, livelihoods and culture, all of the world population is vulnerable to the unprecedented climate variability and changes taking place in the present Africa. In the world and regionally impact of climate change is multi-dimensional such as direct impact on agricultural productivity, the biophysical world which in turn happens to be the vital asset for local livelihoods, economies and human wellbeing. Three dimensions of vulnerability to climate change can be outlined from the perspective of local livelihoods assessment; the three dimensions are the physicalenvironmental dimension, the socioeconomic dimension and the availability and nature of external assistance. Climate change adaptations strategies are natural systems and human systems, which have interacting and interdependent functions.

Whereas, the whole world is subjected to climate change impacts, the distribution of the impacts is uneven. The low-latitude, third world countries or less-developed parts of the world are generally at greatest risk due to both higher sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity. In the world, some regions and communities may be able to adapt to the changing climate, many parts of the world and their inhabitants are facing increased vulnerability. In Sub-Saharan Africa amongst other developing countries or less developed regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change. In sub-Saharan Africa the majority of the populations and other less developed regions are rural subsistent farmers whose living depends mostly on rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive natural resources-based livelihoods.

Literature review also distinguished that in an attempt to cope with climate change impacts on agriculture some communities run the risk of plunging into mal-adaptation. Rural communities lack knowledge, technical and other material assets, many rural communities in drought prone areas in Zimbabwe adopt climate change coping methods that are short or long term generate negative ancillary impacts to the wellbeing or other communities . A amalgamation of local actions together with incorrect policy interventions and other external forces often result to greater vulnerability to climate change.

Chapter Three: Research MethodologyThis chapter outlines the methods and techniques, which were used by the researcher in carrying out the research. This chapter is mainly concerned with the detailed research methods through which data was collected and the more general philosophies upon which the collection and the analysis of data were based (Haralambos and Halborn, 1995). This chapter includes an evaluation on the research methodology that was used by the researcher thus involving research design, the methods of data collection, identification of the population, sample size, sampling procedures and methods of data analysis. These methodologies were considered under the broader framework of qualitative and quantitative research methods adopted. The study again involved data collection obtained from both primary and secondary data sources. The chapter also outlines the instruments which were used for data collection as well as giving the disadvantages and advantages of the instruments. The researcher made use of the questionnaires, focus group discussions and interviews as instruments for collecting data.

Study PopulationMbire district has a population of about 20 000 (Parliament review, 2009) and is furthest to the north of Zimbabwe and shares the border with Mozambique. The district has areas which include Hunyani, Chikafa, Angwa-Bridge, Masoka, St Cecilia, Muzeza, Kanyemba, Chidodo and Musengezi. The majority of residents of Mbire are mainly involved in forms of economic activities such as cotton and maize farming, gold panning, fishing, barter trading and small scale business traders. The district has abundant wildlife and is also prone to droughts and malaria. Poverty levels and food insecurity in the district are relatively higher than in most districts of the country. The majority of Mbire residents are very poor and depend on agriculture for survival. Most of Mbire's population are scattered throughout the region especially in farms which meant that the researcher had to cover much of Mbire to access relatively representative information.

SampleThe questionnaires were answered using purposive sampling technique and 100 questionnaires were distributed with 95 answered hence making the methodology and attainment of the research aim obtainable. Questionnaires were distributed in all wards to farmers, community members, agricultural extension workers, local authorities (DA, Councilors, Ward Officers) and teachers in Mbire. 50 males received questionnaires as compared to 50 females who received questionnaires for the research in order to come up with a balanced assessment.

The researcher interviewed