Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources Drought Chasing: An NDMC Perspective on Future Drought Activities Photo: Melissa Widhalm, NDMC Workshop Planning Committee (David Legler, Wayne Higgins, Kingste Mo, Mike Halpert, Mark Svoboda, Dave Gutzler, Ann Fiedler, Mike Hayes) Ann Fiedler, Nicole Wall Deb Wood NDMC staff and students Jacki Loomis Licorice International Holiday Inn Acknowledgements Nebraska (Heres What I Said) Home of the Unicameral Home of the 6 th Great Lake Sandhills Kool-Aid, CliffNotes Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett), Cabelas, Union Pacific (Worlds largest rail yard in North Platte), Valmont Industries Nebraska (What I Did Not Say) BEEF Cranes Storms Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL Photo: Cimarron County, Oklahoma Gary McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, late June, 2008 Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL Photo: Melissa Widhalm, NDMC Look Backto Look Ahead Kelly Redmond: Where are we now? How did we get here? What is the historical perspective for the current situation? What are the most likely outcomes from the current situation? What is it going to be like next week, next month, next year? Look Backto Look Ahead Monitoring, early warning, and prediction Foundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers Risk and impact assessment Who and what is at risk and why? Mitigation and response Programs and actions to reduce future drought impacts Programs and actions during drought events Look Backto Look Ahead Monitoring, early warning, and prediction Foundation of a drought mitigation plan Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers Risk and impact assessment Who and what is at risk and why? Mitigation and response Programs and actions to reduce future drought impacts Programs and actions during drought events Prediction ResponseMitigation Increasing need for timely, reliable climate/water supply assessments Increasing need for higher resolution analysis for policy/decision support Increasing need for more reliable seasonal forecasts/outlooks Risk and Impact Assessment No systematic collection and analysis of social, environmental, and economic data focused on the impacts of drought within the United States exists today. p. 5 Mitigation Planning Monitoring Supply augmentation Infrastructure improvements Demand reduction Education Communication Coordination Legislation Nebraska examples ( Drought Plan revision to incorporate mitigation strategies) Farm Crisis Hotline Soil Moisture Network Vulnerable Water Systems Mitigation Council of Governors Policy Advisors (1997): The concept of mitigation will be difficult unless officials understand the economic impacts and the positive quantitative benefits of mitigation actions. Multihazard Mitigation Council Report (2005): a dollar spenton hazard mitigation...provides the nation about $4 in future benefits. 1:4 ratio Mitigation Act 238 (2007) $1 million appropriated for drought mitigation for each county 22 projects identified including: water system improve- ments, stormwater reclamation, ditch improvements, wildland fire, education, monitoring The Trend Toward Local River Basin Drought Planning Information Gregg Garfin: Growth Colorado: 6-25 acres going out of production every hour Not whether Colorado will grow, but how! Climate Change Temperature matters! Complexity Andrea Ray: Conversation NIDIS Individual Livelihoods Additional Issues Theres nothing more frightening than being without water. Mayor Campbell, Edina, MO, May 1989