M i i i dMapping, monitoring and modeling the Global Energymodeling the Global Energy System Using Google Earth,

Wikis, and Open Sources

Rajan GuptaTheoretical Division

Los Alamos National Lab

LA-UR-07-8445

Global Energy System

Goal 1: to assemble, annotate, store and model the

global energy systemglobal energy system

G l 2 t d t th bliGoal 2: to educate the public and influence the transition toand influence the transition to

a carbon neutral energy economy

The energy The environmental e e e gysystem is challenge is

• Enormous (>$15T)• Very Complex

• Global• Point and distributed

• Global• Drivers

sources of CO2

– Social – Political– Economic Incomplete, imprecise,Economic– Technology– Resources

Incomplete, imprecise, changing, proprietary

informationinformation

Need Top Down & Bottom Up• Map of the large infrastructure• Access versus environmental (climate) footprint

i i• Enlightened evolution • Policy, regulations, incentives

Accelerated transition• Individual’s energy footprint• Distributed generation• Distributed generation• Efficient use of energy• Individual decisions• Individual decisions • Cooperative action

Electric Power System: Lifecycle cost comparison

Coal Mine 238U Mine N. Gas field “PV” manufacture Wind TManufacture

Fuel

Thermal PP Nuclear PP NG PP “PV” Farm Wind Farm

WasteGHG GHG

R RStorage

Distribution Hub Hydropower

= Pipeline + liquefaction / degasificationTransmission lines

Ecology

Transportation fuels: Lifecycle cost comparison

Coal Mine Oil Shale

C k it

Oil field Tar Sand Corn…Algae

H iCook itto Oil

Heat itto Oil

Conversion

Coal 2 Liquid Refinery RefineryX RefineryY Biofuel

Distribution HubAll of today’s

fuelsproduce

GHG

= Pipeline + pumping stations

GHG

Need Transformational Technologies

• Carbon neutral fossil fuel (coal, tar, …) use• Solar PV/CSP: Reducing capital cost ~$1/watt • Solar PV/CSP: Reducing capital cost ~$1/watt • Storage and transmission of electric power

H d d f f il • H2 produced from non-fossil sources – Photochemical, thermal splitting of H2O

Cl d l f l l t bl f • Closed nuclear fuel cycle to enable safe, secure, sustainable nuclear energyF i th lti t “ ”• Fusion – the ultimate “source”

+ Efficient use of energy Efficient use of energy

Bottom up: Community buy in is needed for transformational change

• There are no technological “silver bullets”• Solutions must be economically viable• Need to engage people: trust• Transparency: map and monitor the global energy

system and its interactions with other sectorssystem and its interactions with other sectors• Empowering people to make enlightened

responsible decisionsespo s b e dec s o s

Change will require stepping out of our comfort zones

O M d l P j tOpen Model ProjectEngagement

Information ActionInformation

Modeling

MAPPINGMAPPING

Open model projectOpen model project

Openmodel.newmexicoconsortium.orgOpenmodel.newmexicoconsortium.org

Mapping the global energyMapping the global energy system -- easy access, use

fand visualization of data

Google Earth / Wikipedia / Web 2.0 based system

Openmodel.lanl.govOpenmodel.newmexicoconsortium.org

(Oil_refineries.kml, pipelines.kmz, powerplants.kml, …)

VI (Global(Community),Open Data

Bases, Moderator

Data Annotation

Open Models,Collaborations

Data AnnotationAnalysisyStorage

Google Earth / Wikipedia / Web 2.0 based system

Openmodel.lanl.govOpenmodel.newmexicoconsortium.org

(Oil_refineries.kml, pipelines.kmz, powerplants.kml, …)

VI (Global(Community),

Open databases,

Moderator

Data Annotation

Open Models,Collaborations

Data AnnotationAnalysis

Heterogeneous Sourcesy

Storage IS&T, M&S

The big investment has already been made

Internet (fiber optics connection)• Internet (fiber optics connection)• World Wide Web• GIS cell phones• Fast evolving tools like Wikepedia, Google, g p , g ,

Google Earth, Virtual Earth, TerraServer, SkylineGlobe, ... y ,

• Global user/participant community (300+ million sensors). Volunteered informationmillion sensors). Volunteered information

Empowering the individual• The individual has representation and options• Precise GI makes it personal and region specific• Distributed power generation is occurring within the

framework provided by the large infrastructureframework provided by the large infrastructure • Role Models: Learning, experience, demonstration

Collective intelligence• Collective intelligence

Engaging the PublicEngaging the Public• Transparencyp y• Public Awareness• Public discussion TRUST• Public discussion

– Informing blogsE i i l i t t

TRUST

– Empowering special interest groups• Dialogue between experts and the public

Tools have to be simple, common, “free”

Criteria for successfully i (VI) th bliengaging (VI) the public

• Content: information, entertainment, culture, , , ,visceral societal issues, …

• Tasks can be broken up into bite-size pieces • Community buy in and dialogue• Cost of information aggregation, integration,

t ti t ti d di i tiextraction, representation and dissemination(a challenging IS&T research project) borne by someone else

• Analysis should be transparent, add intellectual value and be specific to motivate action

MonitoringMonitoring• Assuming responsibility• Assuming responsibility• Verification and Validation• Compliance with regulations• Situational AwarenessSituational Awareness

Ubiquitous Sensingq g

SimplePeople

SimpleEngaging

Tools: Laptops,Cell-phones,

Inexpensivesensors

Tools:

Google Cars,…

sensorsGoogle,G. Earth,Wikis …Wikis, …

V&V: Experts and $1M sensors

MODELINGMODELING• Exploring scenarios• Exploring options• Exploring options• Exploring consequences

C i l i l / k• Connecting multiple sectors / networks• Discovery

Need to know Lifecycle Costs: Di t t d t litiDirect costs and externalities

• Economics of the system (site specific costs)• Reliability of supply • Social impact (displaced people/food, jobs, …)• Environmental impact• Lifecycle CO2 (GHG) emissionsy 2 ( )• Ease of deployment (social, political, economic) • Technological hurdles – RD&D, lock-in, …Technological hurdles RD&D, lock in, …• Political Hurdles

Understanding ho these dri ers interactUnderstanding how these drivers interact

What is needed? Details matter! • Data on all the energy sectors in one place• Validation of data, and reliability for being current• Estimating (via realistic models) social, political,

economic drivers on energy technology, growth & useC li d f db k b t diff t• Couplings and feedbacks between different energy sectors and with the environment

• National regional local constraints (resources )• National, regional, local constraints (resources, …)• Impact of lock-in, innovation, destructive technologies• Understanding of the CO2 cycleUnderstanding of the CO2 cycle• Incentives to reduce our CO2 footprint (policy, $$, …)• Understanding when a non-linear system like climate, g y ,

driven by fossil energy use, reaches a tipping point

Our Role / Contribution• Real time integration of multi-sector data

Software tools for data management• Software tools for data management• Validation• Risk analysis and prediction• Risk analysis and prediction• Facilitate discussion informed by experts• Modeling to extract knowledge• Modeling to extract knowledge

Tools that can be applied toTools that can be applied to many problems

Partnerships and Collaborations• High schools, colleges, universities• Academics and scholars• Special interest groups

– WWF: Influenced moving the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline further from Lake BaikalOcean pipeline further from Lake Baikal

– Greenpeace– Industry

• Informed Public

Harnessing Volunteered Informationg

Summer School on Global Energy Systems

• 30 students with different backgrounds (physical sciences, energy, computer science, business, economics, social sciences)

• Lectures on energy systems and analysis tools (Internal and external lecturers)tools (Internal and external lecturers)

• Project: 5 t f 6 t d t h– 5 teams of 6 students each

– Team picks a region of the world to studyBuilds on the Openmodel data base– Builds on the Openmodel data base

– Develops scenarios for transitioning that region to carbon neutral systemsregion to carbon neutral systems

Develop a 1 semester course based on this SS

Real time data acquisitionand analysisand analysis

(Openmodel.newmexicoconsortium.org)

• Mine open sources (data and models)Network of 300+ million users can provide• Network of 300+ million users can provide refine, complete, annotate data (a la Wikipedia)Wikipedia)

• Facilitate collaboration between and with experts (and expert systems?) to provide andexperts (and expert systems?) to provide and validate information, explore scenarios, extract knowledge and guide policyextract knowledge and guide policy

Timeline of this project• Multi-sector data in one place

D t t lti l l d l ti– Data at multiple scales and resolution– Geospatial and time referenced

E i t d bli ith di• Engaging experts and public with diverse and overlapping expertise E ti ti d M d li f db k d• Estimating and Modeling feedbacks and inter-dependencies (networks)M d l t l l d t (• Models to analyze coupled systems (energy-environment-water-climate system)

Addresses issues common to many areas

• Real time data collection and updateV lid i d V ifi i (V&V)• Validation and Verification (V&V)

• Annotation• Storage• Connecting the many sectors (resources,

social, political, economic, technology,…)• Modeling the interdependencies, networks,

feedbacks, evolution, growth, …• Knowledge → enlightened decisions