Mexp Smallcell 14 Toc

© 2014 Mobile Experts LLC. All Rights Reserved

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Table of Contents



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TABLE OF CONTENTS



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CHARTS

Chart 1: Critical Threshold in Mobile Density (example in Seoul) 7 Chart 2: Forecasted growth of small base station shipments, 2011 to 2018 8 Chart 3: Forecasted growth of small base station revenue, 2011 to 2018 10 Chart 4: Growth of Mobile Data Traffic 11 Chart 5: Mobile Traffic Peak Density, for the average city worldwide 13 Chart 6: Mobile Traffic Peak Density, for pockets in Seoul 13 Chart 7: Mobile Traffic Peak Density, per MHz for pockets in Seoul 14 Chart 8: Mobile Data Traffic Offloaded, Small Cell and Wi-Fi, 2010-2018 19 Chart 9: Forecasted adoption of Wi-Fi into small base stations, 2012-2018 20 Chart 10: Forecasted adoption of Wi-Fi into small cells, 2012-2018 20 Chart 11: SNR limits throughput for LTE 22 Chart 12: North American forecasted small base station shipments, 2012 to 2018 29 Chart 13: North American forecasted micro/pico shipments, 2012 to 2018 30 Chart 14: North American forecasted small cell shipments, by type, 2012-2018 31 Chart 15: Latin American forecasted small base station shipments, 2012 to 2018 32 Chart 16: Latin American micro/picocell shipments, by power level, 2012 to 2018 32 Chart 17: Latin American forecasted small cell shipments, by type, 2012 to 2018 33 Chart 18: European forecasted small base station shipments, by type, 2012 to 2018 34 Chart 19: European forecasted micro/picocell shipments, by power level, 2012-2018 34 Chart 20: European forecasted small cell shipments, by type, 2012 to 2018 35 Chart 21: Chinese forecasted small base station shipments, by type, 2012 to 2018 36 Chart 22: Chinese forecasted micro/picocell shipments, by power level, 2012 to 2018 36 Chart 23: Chinese forecasted small cell shipments, by type, 2012 to 2018 37 Chart 24: Asia/Pacific forecasted small base station shipments, by type, 2012 to 2018 38 Chart 25: Asia/Pacific micro/picocell shipments, by power level, 2012-2018 38 Chart 26: Asia/Pacific forecasted small cell shipments, by type, 2012 to 2018 39 Chart 27: MEA forecasted small base station shipments, by type, 2012 to 2018 40 Chart 28: MEA forecasted microcell/picocell shipments, by power level, 2012 to 2018 41 Chart 29: MEA forecasted small cell shipments, by type, 2012 to 2018 42 Chart 30: Forecasted small base station shipments, by type, 2012 to 2018 44 Chart 31: Forecasted indoor RRH shipments, by region, 2012 to 2018 45 Chart 32: Forecasted multimode mini-RRH technology adoption, 2012-2018 45 Chart 33: Forecasted indoor RRH shipments with integrated Wi-Fi, 2012-2018 46 Chart 34: Forecasted growth of micro/picocells 2012 to 2018 47 Chart 35: Forecasted microcell shipments, by region, 2012 to 2018 48 Chart 36: Forecasted multimode microcell technology adoption, 2012 to 2018 49 Chart 37: Forecasted microcell shipments, by power level, 2012 to 2018 49 Chart 38: Forecasted outdoor picocell shipments, by region, 2012 to 2018 50 Chart 39: Forecasted multimode adoption for outdoor picocells, 2012 to 2018 51 Chart 40: Forecasted integration of Wi-Fi with outdoor picocells, 2012 to 2018 51 Chart 41: Forecasted indoor picocell shipments, by region, 2012 to 2018 52 Chart 42: Forecasted multimode adoption for indoor picocells, 2012 to 2018 53 Chart 43: Forecasted integration of Wi-Fi with indoor picocells, 2012 to 2018 54 Chart 44: Forecasted growth of small cells, by deployment type, 2009 to 2018 55 Chart 45: Forecasted consumer femtocell shipments, by region, 2012 to 2018 57 Chart 46: Forecasted multimode adoption in consumer femtocells, 2009 to 2018 58 Chart 47: Forecasted integration of Wi-Fi with consumer femtocells, 2012 to 2018 59



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Chart 48: Forecasted enterprise femtocell shipments, by region, 2012 to 2018 61 Chart 49: Forecasted multimode adoption in enterprise small cells, 2009 to 2018 61 Chart 50: Forecasted Wi-Fi integration with enterprise small cells, 2012 to 2018 62 Chart 51: Forecasted Indoor Urban Small Cell shipments, by region, 2012 to 2018 63 Chart 52: Forecasted multimode adoption in Indoor Urban Small Cells, 2009 to 2018 64 Chart 53: Forecasted integration of Wi-Fi with indoor carrier femtocells, 2012 to 2018 65 Chart 54: Forecasted Metrocell shipments, by region, 2012 to 2018 66 Chart 55: Forecasted multimode technology adoption in Metrocells, 2012 to 2018 67 Chart 56: Forecasted integration of Wi-Fi with Metrocells, 2012 to 2018 67 Chart 57: Forecasted Rural Small Cell shipments, by region, 2012 to 2018 68 Chart 58: Forecasted multimode adoption in Hi Power Metrocells, 2012 to 2018 69 Chart 59: Forecasted integration of Wi-Fi with Rural Small Cells, 2012 to 2018 69 Chart 60: Small Cells segmented by rated power level, 2012 to 2018 70 Chart 61: Frequency Bands covered by Small Base Station Shipments, 2012-2018 71 Chart 62: Multiband Base Stations: Additional Radio Band Shipments, 2012-2018 72 Chart 63: Small Cell Shipments with Inter-band Carrier Aggregation, 2012 to 2018 73 Chart 64: Multimode vs. Adaptable Mode adoption for small cells, 2012 to 2018 74 Chart 65: Forecasted Revenue for Small Base Stations, 2012 to 2018 76 Chart 66: Forecasted Revenue, segmented by source of capital, 2012 to 2018 76 Chart 67: Cumulative Shipments, 2009 to 2018 77 Chart 68: Small Cell Installed Base, 2009 to 2018 78 Chart 69: Cumulative Shipments, by region, 2009 to 2018 78

EXHIBITS Exhibit 1: Forecasted Shipments of Various Types of Small Cells ................................... 9 Exhibit 2: Examples of Mobile Density in various countries .......................................... 14 Exhibit 3: Map of Coverage Products and Capacity Products ....................................... 17 Exhibit 4: Heterogeneous Network Overlay Diagram .................................................. 21 Exhibit 5: An Example of an Indoor Picocell ................................................................... 25 Exhibit 6: Femto/Gateway architecture diagram .......................................................... 26 Exhibit 7: Types of Carrier Aggregation ......................................................................... 28 Exhibit 8: Detailed Definitions of Equipment Types ..................................................... 93 Exhibit 9: Detailed Definitions of Regions ..................................................................... 94 Exhibit 10: Detailed Definitions of Multimode and Single Mode .................................. 94 Exhibit 11: Detailed Definitions of Frequency Band Categories .................................... 94



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10: METHODOLOGY To create estimates and forecasts for small cell shipments and revenues, Mobile Experts relied on direct input from more than 60 industry sources, with 28 different mobile operators contributing to the overall analysis to give a detailed global view of the market. Mobile Experts built a “top down” forecast based on direct input from mobile operators and based on trends in end-user demand for mobile services. Then, Mobile Experts built a “bottom up” forecast through discussions with the supply chain. Roughly 40 suppliers, integrators, and OEMs participated in this phase of the survey. Mobile Experts also used financial disclosures from publicly traded companies to assemble a quantitative view of the equipment market. Mobile Experts has defined market segments to match the segments used by the Small Cell Forum, while also breaking out additional categories for continuity with our previous forecasts. In particular, we have defined market segments which are narrow in order to give more insight into the driving forces in the market. The market segments are chosen to shed light on the radio semiconductors, with a focus on RF transmitter power level and features such as multimode operation. The terminology used throughout the report refers to the architecture of a WCDMA network since this segment is the single largest market segment. In particular, the terms I-ub and I-uh are sometimes used to define categories, even though a number of air interface standards are included in the forecast. The equivalent segmentation applies to CDMA networks (Abis instead of I-ub) and LTE networks (IMS/SIP instead of I-ub or I-uh). The independent market for Carrier Wi-Fi is not included in this analysis, but integration of Wi-Fi into licensed-band small cells was considered. See the April 2013 study on Carrier Wi-Fi by Mobile Experts for details on the standards, market drivers, and convergence details in Carrier Wi-Fi. Exhibits 14 through 17 give the detailed definitions for each category of equipment, for regions of the world, for multimode vs. single mode, and for frequency band categorization.



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Exhibit 8: Detailed definitions for each equipment category

Definitions RF Power Antenna Location Backhaul Architecture

Macrocell 30W+ composite Rooftop or higher, sectorized Operator managed Closely controlled cells

Indoor RRH up to 1W per antenna Indoor CPRI, OBSAI, ORI to separate baseband unitNo baseband processing in radio unit

Microcell 5.1-29W composite Mostly outdoor, utility pole, wall, roof Operator managed RNC or BSC architecture (2G/3G)

Outdoor Picocell 300 mW to 5W composite Indoor or Outdoor, wall or ceiling Operator managed RNC or BSC architecture (2G/3G)

Indoor Picocell <300 mW composite Mostly indoor Operator managed RNC or BSC architecture (2G/3G)

Rural Small Cell 5.1W/ant-29W composite Outdoor Operator managed Coordinated with macro layer, LTE or 3G gateway

Outdoor Urban Small Cell 300 mW to 5W per ant. Outdoor Operator managed Coordinated with macro layer, LTE or 3G gateway

Indoor Urban Small Cell <300 mW per antenna Indoor Operator managed Lightly Coordinated with macro layer, LTE or 3G gateway

Enterprise Small Cell 50 to 300 mW/antenna Indoor mostly Enterprise IT dept involved Autonomous node (Gateway) or local controller.

Femtocell <50 mW/antenna Indoor Consumer or SOHO managedAutonomous node (Gateway)

Active Antenna System Any power Multiple antennas using waveforms and beamsteering

Outdoor DAS 5-60W composite Utility pole or rooftop Aggregated at hub Multi-operator capable

Indoor DAS 0-4W composite Wall or ceiling mounted Aggregated at hub Multi-operator capable

Repeater: Operator Any Indoor or outdoor, Utility pole or wall None, over the air Same RF signal repeated

Repeater: Consumer Any Indoor None, over the air Same RF signal repeated

Relay Any Indoor or Outdoor None, over the air Demodulated & shifted for orthogonality

Satellite-based Access NodeAny Onboard aircraft, ships, remote locationsSatellite Multiple

Source: Mobile Experts



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Exhibit 9: Detailed definitions for regions

North America: USA and Canada

Latin America: Mexico through South America, including Caribbean

Europe: Western and Eastern Europe, including Russia

China: China, including Tibet and Hong Kong

Asia Pacific: India through Australia/Micronesia, excluding China

Middle East/Africa: Pakistan and Turkey through Africa

Source: Mobile Experts Exhibit 10: Detailed definitions for multimode/single mode

Multimode: Capable of multiple simultaneous air interface standards (LTE, HSPA, GSM, etc)

Adaptable: Capable of one air interface standard at a time, but reprogrammable

Single-mode: Capable of only one air interface standard

Source: Mobile Experts Exhibit 11: Detailed definitions for multiband and carrier aggregation

Multiband:

Capable of operating in multiple frequency bands, one at a time or simultaneously with separate baseband datastreams

Carrier Aggregation Units:

Units which operate in multiple bands with a single baseband datastream (inter-band CA)

Source: Mobile Experts

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Mexp Smallcell 14 Toc