The Presidential Race

MEXICO 2012

Calderon’s Drug Cartel War strategy - violence

Social unrest – pacific protestsImmigration and Border Issues with U.S.PAN governing for 12 years – political

weakeningPRI’s 2009 comeback – same old PRI?PRD’s eternal fights – possible fractureImportant Dates

Pre-campaigns December 18 – February 16, 2012

Campaign: March 30 – July 27, 2012 Election Day: July 1st, 2012

Context

PAN (internal election) Josefina Vazquez Mota (FC Plan B)Ernesto Cordero (FC Plan A)Santiago Creel (Fox, right groups)

PRI (open election) (possible alliance PVEM+PANAL)Enrique Pena Nieto (40% ahead of any rival)Manlio Fabio Beltrones (“Mano dura”)

PRD (still undecided) (possible alliance PT+MC)Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (Structure, hard core)Marcelo Ebrard (Social-Democrat)

The Actors: Pre-candidates

Carlos Salinas de Gortari – intellectual operatorAtlacomulco Group - $ interests, EPN supportersElba Esther Gordillo – syndicalist, education leader

Negotiating 32 Congressmen “Power is power…” Carlos Slim – he’ll bet on allAMLO and the poor onesCivil Society, NGO’sTV Companies - $ interests, PVEM legislatorsBusinessmen in GeneralIFE – Federal Electoral Institute“Informal politics” – out of the system

The other actors: $, social, political

Enrique Pena Nieto virtual winner + PVEM + PANAL

Possible forces alliances against him – “Guerra sucia”Wife suicide, Paulette’s case, etc. CISEN.

No big changesMid term policies for force balances in DCWLobbying for major Reforms (energy, political,

fiscal, justice) – Congress: divided vs majority Coalition Government?Foreign Policy - a more active and aggressive

oneEconomic stability

Possible Scenarios & Conclusions

MEXICO 2012

The Presidential Race

MEXICO 2012