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Metro Vision 2035
Regional Growth Scenarios
Scenario Workshop
Scenario Purpose
• Educational process– “what if” analysis
• What happens to some of Metro Vision’s key assumptions
– Food for thought• To guide the Board and its committees
as they craft the 2035 plan
2030 Urban Growth Boundary/Area and 2004 Urban Area
2030 UGB/A
2004 Urbanized Area
Urban Centers
Activity Centers
Mixed Use Centers
Regional Corridors
Themes Discussed
• Land use variations
• Transportation variations
• Pricing variations
Measures
• Long list
• Measures selected
• Measures not selected
12 Measures
• Transportation– Vehicle miles traveled– Transit Trips– Vehicle hours of delay– Access to Transit (EJ)
12 Measures
• Land Use– Additional land used for
development– Households and jobs near transit– Public infrastructure costs– Population and jobs in urban centers– Population and jobs in the Denver
CBD
12 Measures
• Environmental– Air pollutant emissions– Water demand– Wastewater treatment impact
Scenario Descriptions
Policy dimensionsUrban Footprint
Transportation Investment
Priorities
Compact Expanded
Highways
Transit
The Scenarios
• Six scenarios covering key parts of this “policy space”
Policy dimensionsUrban Footprint
Transportation Investment
Priorities
Compact Expanded
Highways
Transit
D
A B C
E
F
Scenario B: Metro Vision Trend
Small increase in urban growth boundary (UGB)
Arterials/collectors added to new urban areas
Roads
Transit
Urban footprint (2030)
Urban footprint (2035)
Scenario A: Compact Urban Footprint
No increase in urban growth boundary (UGB)
Urban footprint (2030 and 2035)
No change to roads and transit in 2030 plan
Roads
Transit
Scenario C: Expanded Urban Footprint
Larger increase in urban growth boundary (UGB)
Roads
Transit
Urban footprint (2030)
Urban footprint (2035)
Arterials/collectors added to new urban areas
Scenario D: Metro Vision Trend Plus Highways
Small increase in urban growth boundary (UGB)
Urban footprint (2030)
Add highway improvements to 2030 transportation plan
Highway improvements
Roads
Urban footprint (2035)
Scenario E: Compact Urban Footprint Plus Transit
No increase in urban growth boundary (UGB)
Urban Footprint (2030 and 2035)
Add transit improvements to 2030 transportation plan
Roads
Transit
Transit Improvements
Scenario F: Compact Urban Footprint Plus Transit Plus Pricing
Double driving costs and make transit free
No increase in urban growth boundary (UGB)
Urban Footprint (2030 and 2035)
Add transit improvements to 2030 transportation plan
Roads
Transit
Transit Improvements
Emerging Themes
Themes/messages
• Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) and congestion will increase substantially compared to today– Adding 1.56 M more people!
• Some scenario outcomes can only be achieved with additional transportation investment
Themes/Messages
• Transportation performance improves in scenarios with more compact development– More development in urban centers– More transit use– More bike/pedestrian trips– Shorter trip lengths for autos
Themes/Messages
• Expanding the region’s “footprint” without new transportation funding is problematic– Development extends to the
fringes– Have only 2030 RTP to
accommodate this growth• The growth overloads key facilities
– C-470, I-70 East, I-25 North, etc.
Themes/Messages
• We can reduce delay if we invest additional funding in highway infrastructure
• This will also increase total Vehicle Miles Traveled
Themes/Messages
• If the growth area is constrained, investing in more transit capacity does not make a significant difference (A vs. E) – The 2030 RTP transit network already
serves the 2030 UGB/A well– Lines and services added in E serve
smaller markets– The return on this additional investment is
marginal
Themes/Messages
• Pricing (Scenario F) results in the most significant decrease in hours of delay
• Pricing increases transit ridership substantially by changing behavior– But at what price?
Policy dimensionsUrban Footprint
Transportation Investment
Priorities
Compact Expanded
Highways
Transit
D
A B C
E
F
Data Descriptions
Transportation
• Vehicle miles traveled
• Transit Trips
• Vehicle hours of delay
• Access to Transit (EJ)
Environmental
• Air pollutant emissions
• Water demand
• Wastewater treatment impact
Land Use
• Additional land used for development
• Households and jobs near transit• Public infrastructure costs• Population and jobs in urban
centers• Population and jobs in the Denver
CBD
Better access to transit
More transit use
Less driving
Less congestion
Cleaner air
More efficient water use
Less need for new water treatment facilities
Less spending on infrastructure
Less land consumption
More development
in urban centers
More development
downtown
More development around transit
Land Use
Transportation
Environment
Worse
Better
Better access to transit
More transit use
Less driving
Less congestion
Cleaner air
More efficient water use
Less need for new water treatment facilities
Less spending on infrastructure
Less land consumption
More development
in urban centers
More development
downtown
More development around transit
Scenario B:Metro Vision Trend
Land Use
Transportation
Environment
B
Metro Vision TrendB
Better access to transit
More transit use
Less driving
Less congestion
Cleaner air
More efficient water use
Less need for new water treatment facilities
Less spending on infrastructure
Less land consumption
More development
in urban centers
More development
downtown
More development around transit
Scenario A:Compact Urban Footprint
Land Use
Transportation
EnvironmentCompact Urban Footprint
Metro Vision Trend
A
B
A
B
Better access to transit
More transit use
Less driving
Less congestion
Cleaner air
More efficient water use
Less need for new water treatment facilities
Less spending on infrastructure
Less land consumption
More development
in urban centers
More development
downtown
More development around transit
Scenario C:Expanded Urban Footprint
Land Use
Transportation
EnvironmentExpanded Urban Footprint
Metro Vision Trend
C
B
B
C
Better access to transit
More transit use
Less driving
Less congestion
Cleaner air
More efficient water use
Less need for new water treatment facilities
Less spending on infrastructure
Less land consumption
More development
in urban centers
More development
downtown
More development around transit
Scenario D:Metro Vision Trend+ Highways
Land Use
Transportation
Environment
Metro Vision Trend + Highways
Metro Vision Trend
D
B
B
D
Better access to transit
More transit use
Less driving
Less congestion
Cleaner air
More efficient water use
Less need for new water treatment facilities
Less spending on infrastructure
Less land consumption
More development
in urban centers
More development
downtown
More development around transit
Scenario E:Compact Urban Footprint + Transit
Land Use
Transportation
EnvironmentCompact Urban Footprint
Metro Vision Trend
A
B
Compact Urban Footprint +Transit
E
A
B
E
Better access to transit
More transit use
Less driving
Less congestion
Cleaner air
More efficient water use
Less need for new water treatment facilities
Less spending on infrastructure
Less land consumption
More development
in urban centers
More development
downtown
More development around transit
Scenario F:Compact Urban Footprint +Transit +Pricing
Land Use
Transportation
EnvironmentCompact Urban Footprint
Metro Vision Trend
A
B
Compact Urban Footprint + Transit
E
Compact Urban Footprint + Transit + Pricing
F
A
B
EF
Questions?
Next Steps
Plan Process
• 2035 Update Committee– UGB target– Criteria for UGB consideration
• TAC– Transportation facility criteria
• Draft plan in June
• Board action in December