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Methodological issues of population projections in small States
the case of Cape Verde
Joint Eurostat-UNECE Work Session on Demographic ProjectionsINE - Lisboa (Portugal) , 28-30 April 2010
BRITO, [email protected]
RODRIGUES, [email protected]
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Main Issue:
To discuss possible alternative methods of performing population projections in small political independent States
(To consider Cape Verde and its 10 islands
as a case study)
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Republic of Cape Verde
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Methodological assumptions
To project Cape Verde’s population evolution for 2000-2025, based on different methods;
To present some hypothetical demographic “scenarios”, both for total and insular population
To make a critical analysis of the results obtained
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Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Our Goal
To make some aggregation tests of the 10 existing islands, according to their convergence or divergence behavior patterns (both natural and/or migratoryboth natural and/or migratory).
To verify the probable existence of future different internal (insular) trends / “local histories”
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Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Starting points
Cape Verde is no exception to this ruleCape Verde is no exception to this rule
a. an insular Country, located in the Atlantic Ocean in the West African coast
b. composed by 10 islands and several islets and divided in 22 municipalities
c. a micro-island State with less than half a million inhabitants (Census 2000: 431989)
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Data analysis becomes increasingly complex as the size of the projected population decreases
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Starting points
d. Annual Average Increase Rate (1991-2000): 2.39%
e. extremely young population structure (42% under 15 years; 54% under 20 years)
f. Crude Birth Rate=29.5 ‰; Crude Mortality Rate=6.4 ‰; Infant Mortality Rate=33.3‰; General Fertility Rate=123.3 ‰; Synthetic Fertility Index=4.0 children/woman; Average Life Expectancy at Birth (M/F)=71 years; Mean Procreation Age=29 years
g. Huge internal diversity in natural and migratory behaviours
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Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Methodologies
For this exercise we rely on the method of components (Cohort Cohort SurvivalSurvival) to present some hypothetical “scenarios”, based on the Census of 2000 and all demographic behaviors and its trend in the 1990s;
In subsidiary terms we used mathematical methodsmathematical methods and ratioratio. The first one considers the average annual growth rate recorded in the 90’s to project population volume by 2025; the second estimates the same population based on the weight it had both in 1990 and 2000, compared to the population of ECOWAS.
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Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
8
Prospective Hypothesis: future demographic dynamics
Estimation Criteria on Mortality, Fertility and Migration Trends (2000-2025)
2000 - 2005 2005 - 2010 2010 - 2015 2015 - 2020 2020 - 2025IMR= 28,05 IMR= 25,1 IMR= 22,7 IMR= 20,5 IMR=18,7
ALE0 (M)= 67,2; ALE0( F)=75,4
ALE0 (M)= 68,4; ALE0 (F)=76,2
ALE0 (M)= 69,4; ALE0 ( F)= 77
ALE0 (M)= 70,3; ALE0( F)= 77,7
ALE0 (M)= 71,1; ALE0( F)= 78,2
Birth (estimates)= 63888
Birth (estimates)= 59373
Birth (estimates)= 51777
Birth (estimates)= 41711
Birth (estimates)= 35715
Birth (M)= 31177; Birth (F)= 32711)
Birth (M)= 30399; Birth (F)= 28974
Birth (M)= 26510; Birth (F)= 25267
Birth (M)= 21356; Birth (F)= 20355
Birth (M)= 18286; Birth (F)= 17429
Migr. Balance= - 4320/5 Constant Constant Constant ConstantAMIR= -0,2
AAIR= 2,2 AAIR= 1,9 AAIR= 1,5 AAIR= 1,0 AAIR= 0,8
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
National Results (1)
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Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
10
National Results, with and without migratory effect
1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Scenari
o 1Scenari
o 2Scenari
o 1Scenari
o 2Scenari
o 1Scenari
o 2Scenari
o 1Scenari
o 2Scenari
o 1Scenari
o 2Total Population 341491 43189 482479 478159 529310 524959 576863 565843 600239 595840 625344 625245 Male 161495 207994 235538 233378 262096 258924 283474 281294 300334 298146 314452 312456Female 179996 223995 246941 244781 267214 266035 293389 284549 299905 297694 310892 312789
General Fecundity Rate 185,43 123,3 99 99 75 75 61 61 40 40 40 40Synthetic Fertility Index 6,32 4 2,9 2,82 2,87 2,78 2,83 2,74 2,8 2,7 2,5 2,3Infant Mortality Rate 65 29,8 26,3 26,3 23,9 23,9 21,4 21,4 19,6 19,6 17,8 17,8Active Renovation rate - 27,2% 22,8% 21,1% 19,9% 20,2% 13,2% 13,4% 12,2% 12,4% 8,7% 9,6%
Average Life Expectancy at Birth (MF) 68,5 70,8 72 72 72,9 72,9 73,8 73,8 74,4 74,4 74,7 74,7Average Life Expectancy at Birth (M) 65,7 66,5 67,9 67,9 68,9 68,9 69,9 69,9 70,7 70,7 71,1 71,1Average Life Expectancy at Birth (F) 71,3 74,9 75,8 75,8 76,6 76,6 77,4 77,4 77,9 77,9 78,2 78,2Scenario 1 – Natural TrendScenario 2 - Repulsion
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Cape Verde Population Structure – Natural Trend (2000 and 2025)
Prospective Hypothesis: future demographic dynamics
Graphic 2: Cape Verde 2025 (Natural Trend)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
F
Birth’s year
0123456789
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
M
Birth’s year
+95908580757065605550454035302520151050
Graphic 1: Cape Verde 2000 (Natural Trend)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
FBirth’s year
0123456789
2000
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
MBirth’s year
+95908580757065605550454035302520151050
11
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Cape Verde Population Structure – Alternative Trend (2000 and 2025)
Prospective Hypothesis: future demographic dynamics
Graphic 4: Cape Verde 2025 (Alternative Trend)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2015
2005
1995
1985
1975
1965
1955
1945
1935
1925
1915
FBirth’s year
0123456789
2015
2005
1995
1985
1975
1965
1955
1945
1935
1925
1915
MBirth’s year
+95908580757065605550454035302520151050
Graphic 3: Cape Verde 2000 (Alternative Trend)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
FBirth’s year
0123456789
1990
1980
1970
1960
1950
1940
1930
1920
1910
1900
1890
MBirth’s year
+95908580757065605550454035302520151050
12
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Prospective Hypothesis: future demographic dynamics
13
Results (2000-2025)
Without Migrações With MigraçõesDemographic Growth in the next 25 years
Demographic Growth in the next 25 years
Actives and aging increasing Trend for aging of the population
Decreasing of AAIR Mortality Decreasing
Mortality and Natality decreasing Migratory balance each less negative time
Resultado Final (2000-2025)
Population will tend to aging
Decline of almost all the demographic indices
Increase of the indices of aging, longevity and dependence of the aged
Average Life Expectancy at birth increasing
Infant Mortality Rate decreasing
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Main Conclusions
Micro-demographic variables, such as birth / fertility, mortality and migration rates are the most important factors for population growth in Cape Verde;
Mortality continues to decline at all age groups and islands, as a result of improvements in sanitation and socio-economic;
Life expectancy at birth increased significantly between 1990 and 2000;
Cape Verdean population will continue to grow in the near future, at least until 2025, no mater the chosen scenario.
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Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Regional Results (2)
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Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Population estimates for Cape Verde’s islands (2000-2025)
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Demographic Projection 2000 -2025 by Islands (Alternative Scenario)
IslandsYears
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Santo Antão 46865 51873 56951 61386 64640 67830
São Vicente 66764 73900 81133 87451 92087 96632
São Nicolau 13583 15035 16506 17792 18735 19660
Sal 14727 16301 17897 19291 20313 21316
Boavista 4178 4625 5077 5473 5763 6047
Maio 6713 7497 8225 8964 9327 9718
Santiago 235196 260333 285813 308072 324404 340414
Fogo 37201 41177 45207 48728 51311 53843
Brava 6762 7485 8218 8858 9327 9788
Total 429454 475353 521879 562523 592344 621576
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Population estimates for Cape Verde’s islands (2000-2025)
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Demographic Projection 2000 -2025 by Islands (Alternative Scenario)
IslandsAnos
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Santo Antão 46865 51873 56951 61386 64640 67830
São Vicente 66764 73900 81133 87451 92087 96632
São Nicolau 13583 15035 16506 17792 18735 19660
Sal 14727 16301 17897 19291 20313 21316
Boavista 4178 4625 5077 5473 5763 6047
Maio 6713 7430 8158 8793 9259 9716
Santiago 235196 260333 285813 308072 324404 340414
Fogo 37201 41177 45207 48728 51311 53843
Brava 6762 7485 8218 8858 9327 9788
Total 440003 487030 534698 576341 606894 636845
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
From the demographic point of view there are 3 groups of Islands:
1- Islands with a fast growth
•Santiago ; São Vicente and Sal (Development Concentration Poles; moderate Fecundity + high migratory balance)
2- Islands with a moderate growth
•Fogo and Santo Antão (Sources of internal and international migrations; high Fecundity rates + negative migratory balance);
3- Islands with a slow growth
•Boavista; Maio; São Nicolau and Brava (Sources internal and international migrations ; small fecundity + very negative migratory balance)
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Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
4. Islands with very reduced population and a very high probability error:
Brava - 6762 inhabitants
Boavista - 4178 inhabitants
Maio – 6713 - inhabitants
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Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Main Conclusions
The more economic and social developed islands remain the major demographic poles of attraction (Santiago; Santa Catarina; São Vicente; Sal and Boavista in some ways);
Islands with higher fecundity rates are not the ones where growth rates are highest ;
Migrations (internal and international ones) represent the major importance to explain diferentials on populational dynamics;
Demographic projections at level of the municipalities are impossible or present major errors, as there are municipalities with vey small volumes of residents.
…
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Methodological issues of population projections in small States. The case of Cape Verde
Brito, Pedro: Rodrigues, Teresa
Thank You.
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