Meteorological uncertainty estimates - possibilities for implementation in ARGOS

NKS Workshop on the use of meteorological uncertainty estimates for decision making during a nuclear emergency

DMI 10 September 2015

Side 1

Jonas Lindgren Steen Hoe

SSM DEMA

Contact: Hoe@brs.dk

Long Range Model in DK

• DERMA (Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere)

• Interface from ARGOS can initiate and run the DERMA for download and dose calculation in ARGOS.

• DERMA will run on all available NWP area and will produce from 1 to 3 results

Slide 2

Today on intranet

• Automated Dispersion Calculation, time of arrival for closest NPP calculated 4 times daily.

Slide 3

HIRLAM SKA (3 km horizontal)

• Simulated Fukushima like release 20150909

Slide 4

HIRLAM SKA (3 km horizontal)

• Simulated Fukushima like release 20150909

Slide 5

HIRLAM SKA (3 km horizontal)

• Simulated Fukushima like release 20150909

Slide 6

HIRLAM T (15 km horizontal) • Simulated Fukushima like release 20150909

Slide 7

ECMWF (30-50 km horizontal)

• Simulated Fukushima like release 20150909

Slide 8

Thyroid dose results from 3 NWP models • Simulated Fukushima like release 20150909

Slide 9

Additional display from DMI Ensemble based on 25 DERMA calculations

Slide 10

• Operational today

After 10 min file manipulation - Thyroid dose:

Slide 11

After 10 min file manipulation - Thyroid dose

Slide 12

After 10 min file manipulation - Thyroid dose

Slide 13

Compare ensemble and the “best model” (In a dry scenario)

Slide 14

• Dispersion is complicated

• Ensemble modelling can help, but added value is properly most important when wet deposition is present.

• We need the experts

Slide 15