8/8/2019 MEMO: Separate California Polls Confirm Governor's Race Neck And Neck

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To: Meg Whitman for Governor

From: John McLaughlin & David B. Hill, Ph.D

Re: Separate California Polls Confirm Governors Race Too Close to Call

Date: October 28, 2010

With 5-days remaining before election-day, the race for governor of California has tightened to a dead heat

between Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown. Two separate polls confirm that the race is too close to call. In a

survey conducted by Hill Research Consultants among 604 likely voters on October 26th

and 27th, the race for

governor is tied 43% Whitman to 43% Brown with 4% voting for another candidate and 10% being undecided

or refused to respond. In a separate McLaughlin & Associates survey conducted among 900 likely voters on

October 25th

, 26th

and 27th

(300 each night), Meg Whitman has a slight lead over Jerry Brown 44% to 43% with

6% voting for another candidate and 7% remaining undecided or refused to respond. This neck and neck race

represents a marked improvement for Meg Whitman who trailed Jerry Brown from October 17th

to 25th

in Hill

Research Consultant polling, by as much as 7 percentage points at one point.

Early Voting: In McLaughlin & Associates survey of 900 likely voters, the early voting is helping Meg

Whitman. As of last night, 25% of the voters say that they have already voted by absentee mail in and amongthese voters Meg Whitman leads 43% to 40%. There are another 27% who tell us they will vote by early

absentee mail between now and Saturday and Meg Whitman wins among those voters 48% to 43%. Among the

43% who tell us that they will vote in person on election day, it's a virtual tie with Meg Whitman 43% and Jerry

Brown 45%.

Meg Whitman has gained momentum and closed the gap in the final week before the election. She is in

a good position to carry her momentum through the finals days and win the election for governor.

Methodologies: The separate surveys conducted by Hill Research Consultants and McLaughlin & Associates, shared a

similar methodology but were administered independently of each other. Both firms purchased their own separateCalifornia voter files. Each firm screened for likely voters. The interviews conducted by each firm were random within

predetermined election units that were structured to statistically correlate with actual general election voter distributions.

The accuracy of a sample of 600 likely general election voters is within +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval. The

accuracy of a sample of 900 likely general election voters is within +/- 3.3% at a 95% confidence interval. The governors

ballot was asked with each of the six candidates names, their party registration and their ballot title as described by the

Secretary of States office. McLaughlin & Associates survey had a party registration of 44% Democrat, 38% Republican

and 18% Independent/DTS/Other. In the Hill Research Consultants survey, the party registration was 44% Democrat, 36%

Republican and 20% Independent/DTS/Other.