Members Commtools Slidedeck Airdom Afa Air Dominance

8/9/2019 Members Commtools Slidedeck Airdom Afa Air Dominance

1/23

Losing Air Dominance?Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning


2/23

What is Air Dominance?What is Air Dominance?

Air superiority over enemy to meet joint force goals

Freedom to attackany target, with mission success

Freedom from attackdefeat of enemy fighters and SAMs

Freedom to maneuver

for forces on land or sea

Operation Desert Storm, 1991

Ground Attack

Air Superiority

43,735

23,455


3/23

Iraq and AfghanistanIraq and Afghanistan

0 5000

0000

5000 20000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

EF CA

IF CA

0

500

000

500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

IF

EF

Munitions Dropped 2004 to 2008

orties Flown 2004 to 2008


4/23

The Plan After 1991The Plan After 1991

Success of -11 in 1991 ulf war

set Air orce position on stealth

ighter force structure cut by %

as Cold War ended

Replacement strategy:

1991: Advanced Tactical ighter

program down-select to maintain

air dominance technologies

199 : Joint Stri e ighter research

initiated as affordable stealth

fighter/attac to replace -1 andA-1 force structure

Never again buy a non-stealthy

fighter Chief of Staff en. McPea


5/23

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

63 68 73 78 83 88 93 98 2003 2008

F-117

F-22

F-15E

F-16 (A/B/C/D)

A/OA-10

F-15 (A/B/C/D)

F-111

F-5

F-4

F-105

Major ighter Aircraft Buys 19 -Major ighter Aircraft Buys 19 -

*Estimates 59 F-117s

Todays CAF purchased


6/23


7/23

2003 Operation Iraqi reedom:

Aircraft elt Their Age

2003 Operation Iraqi reedom:

Aircraft elt Their Age

Decline from Operation Desert

Storm averaged over 10%

-1 C average age = 1 years

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

F-15C F-15E F-117 F-16

Desert Storm:Data 28 Feb 91

Iraqi Freedom:Data Average

Mission Capable RatesOperation Desert Storm vs. Operation Iraqi Freedom


8/23

F-22 is first supersonic

stealth aircraft

2 engine, supercruise

design with ample

internal missiles

Designed to assure air

dominance throughfleet life ~2040

Depends on number

of aircraft procured

F-22 is first supersonic

stealth aircraft

2 engine, supercruise

design with ample

internal missiles

Designed to assure air

dominance throughfleet life ~2040

Depends on number

of aircraft procured

-22s-22s


9/23

F-1 C D

F-1

F-11

From Three Fighters to OneFrom Three Fighters to One

F-11 : Stealthattac ofheavilydefended targets

F-1 : Advanced

air-to-groundplatform

F-1 : Air

superiority fighter

with 100 ills, no

air combat losses665Total Active F-15, F-15Eand F-117

55

200

410

F-22

183 Currently Funded381 F-22s Air Force Requirement


10/23

How to See StealthHow to See Stealth

This F-1 from

La enheath on an OIF

mission carried fuel,

targeting pods, air-to-

ground weapons and air-

to-air missiles externally

In contrast, the F-22has four

internal weapons bays and

targeting integrated with itsavionics

Internal fuel and weapons bays

greatly improve the F-22s stealth

The two side-bay doors are open here

Internal fuel and weapons bays

greatly improve the F-22s stealth

The two side-bay doors are open here

NOT

STEALTH

NOT

STEALTH STEALTHSTEALTH


11/23

F-22 and F-35: PartnershipF-22 and F-35: Partnership

F-22 technology development

and ris reduction flow to F-35Radar

F119/F120Engine

Development

Integrated, open

architecture avionicsUnique F-22

Capabilities

Advanced LO Materials

and Manufacturing

Computer-based

maintenance


12/23

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

88 93 98 2003 2008 2013

F-35

F-22

F-15E

F-16 (A/B/C/D)

A/OA-10

F-15 (A/B/C/D)

True to Plan: MajorFighter Aircraft Buys 19 -2015True to Plan: MajorFighter Aircraft Buys 19 -2015

1991 Gulf War

Estimate

F-22 and F-35 would haveled to smaller force, moreprecision and survivability,no legacy aircraft


13/23

Comptrollers Plan December2004: PBD 53(FY06 PB)

Comptrollers Plan December2004: PBD 53(FY06 PB)

$10.5 ut

$46.1 ut

More O&Scosts for oldFighters

~1285 funded

190

197

~2,167 reqt.

~1772QDR

PBD 53 cut $10B from

F-22 program (100 aircraft)

F-22F-15C

F-15E

Pushed long-term funding

far below stated

requirement


14/23

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

88 93 98 2003 2008 2013

F-35

F-22

F-15E

F-16 (A/B/C/D)

A/OA-10

F-15 (A/B/C/D)

Crisis: MajorFighter Aircraft Buys 19 -2015Crisis: MajorFighter Aircraft Buys 19 -2015

1991 Gulf War

Estimate

Budget cuts shrink forcebelow QDR requirement


15/23

The Legacy Force Mix Active ComponentThe Legacy Force Mix Active Component

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 1995 2000 2005 200

Aircraft Un er 8 yrs

Aircraft ver 8 yrs

Only 6 aircraft

over 1 yrs.

Stea y fighter buys in980s recapitalizeforce

F

rom 990

to200

8,active fighter anattac force she~ 000 aircraft

1995: Legacy fightersover 8 years less than

% ofactive force 200 : Legacy fighters

over 8 years55% ofactive force

Active Fighter an Attac AircraftA- 0, F-4, F- , F- 5, F- 5E, F- 6, F- , F-22

784 aircraft

over 18 yrs.

TAI Active Only


16/23

Considerations: New administration budget guidance

F-22 availability for NATO

PACOM force structure

Option for Japan*

Current: Program of Record is 1 3 total

aircraft buy

Will yield ~126Combat-CodedAircraft

7 Squadrons 1 PAA

F-22Force SizingF-22Force Sizing

PACOM AOR

CENTCOM AOR

Langley AFB

Holloman AFB

Hickam AFB

Elmendorf AFB

NATO: No F-22s

2

2

1

2


17/23

Threat EnvironmentThreat Environment

Iraq 2003: 2884 launches in

25 days

Pea : 190 launches on Day 15

Persistent mobile SAMs

moved daily SA-2, SA-3, SA-6s, Rolands

66% were unlocated despite

12 years of operations and one

year of accelerated SAM

destruction Kosovo 1999: 894 SAM

launches in 8 days

Pea : 43 launches on Day 39

2

113

67

96 92

61

47

143

54

149

105

93

65

90

190

93

105

2314

199

17

4 5 3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 24 25

Threats can persist forweeks even against older

defenses

US forces have not yetfaced SA-20

2884Iraqi Surface to Air MissileLaunches in 2003

SA-20


18/23

Red AirRed Air

Source: DoD Report, 2006

PRC F-10

Lethal SAMS and Red air

~1200F-10 advanced 4th

Gen fighters in

production

DIA estimates similar toTyphoon, Rafale

Su-30 and Su-33purchases

Wor on AWACS-li e

system based on IL- 6 Acquisition of8 Russian

air refueling aircraft

Complete radar coverageof all borders

You will be

outnumberedADM Willard, Commander,US Pacific Fleet, Sep 2008


19/23

Getting Bac on Trac ?Getting Bac on Trac ?

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 1995 2000 2005 200 2014 2020

ircraft nder 18 r

ircraft ver 18 r

Active Fighter and Attac AircraftA-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-11 , F-22

Estimate

Ratio gets worse, beforeit gets better

Fighter force reaches80% legac circa 2014

Recovers to 62% legac

circa 2020Assumes243 total F-22s

Assumes ramp rate to 80SAFF-35s per ear

Active total inventordeclines to 1320

Guard and Reserve forcessteadil age out

Fighter and attac forcehighl capable butlimited in number ofjoint tasks it can serve

TAI Active Only


20/23

F-22Termination OptionsF-22Termination Options

183183 381381260240200 300280SD USAF

Fleet

Size

339339

Maintain servicelife to 2038

220

Lot 10 then deferto QDR AnalysisYields ~203 F-22s

Lot10 Lot11 Lot12

CurrentProgram

Sustain force with3 more lots

20-24 acft per lot

Synchronize withF-35 way forward Hedge F-35 concurrency risk

10 squadrons total

Take from back-up inventory, training and

attrition reserve to create 10 squadrons

CJCS: 60


21/23

Way AheadWay Ahead No service depends more on F-35

than the SAF

Only program of maturity and scaleto maintain SAF fighter andattackmissions

Biggest risk:restrictingprogram build-

up from 2010 to2015

Essential forNavy, MarineCorps andallies


22/23


23/23

F-22Workforce ImpactF-22Workforce Impact

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

To F-35

F-22

Option0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

Other

CA

TX

NH

GA

CT

WA

DirectF-22 Jobsby State

Jobs LostatF-22ProductionTermination

I can throw a blanket over the

production line to keep it warm,

but what about the people? --F-22Program Manager

F-22has 26,657 direct jobs in 2008

At full rate, F-35 will transfer5300 jobs* some to otherprograms

4,400 jobs remain on F-22 after2011

Permanent loss of17,000 highly skilled jobs

If Production Continues

17,000

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Members Commtools Slidedeck Airdom Afa Air Dominance