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Megatrends and
Innovating Towards Zero
W.F. W.F. KeeKee, Industry Manager, Industry Manager
Mar 15th, 2012
W.F. W.F. KeeKee, Industry Manager, Industry Manager
Technical Insights Group, Frost & SullivanTechnical Insights Group, Frost & Sullivan
Climate Change: Is It Happening ?11
22
33
Introduction to Megatrends
Megatrend 1: Low Carbon Economy
Content
2
44 Megatrend 2: SMART Cities and SMART Infrastructure
55 Megatrend 3: Innovating to Zero !
Climate Change: Is it Happening?
3
Fact 1: Current CO2 emissions in the atmosphere are reaching
concentrations of 393 ppm (parts per million), the highest it’s been for
the last 800,000 years.
Climate Change
Fact 2: Earth’s climate has changed radically in recent years, with the
last decade (2001 to 2010) having some of the hottest years on record.
4
Question: The scientific consensus on climate change is that it is
largely irreversible. Is this true?
The Greenhouse Effect
5
Source: Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Higher Levels of CO2
6
Sources of CO2
Global GHG emissions have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70%
between 1970 and 2004. Carbon dioxide is the larger contributor
7
Source: United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2009
Extreme climate?
8
Source: Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Increasing Sea Levels
9
Key Technologies for Reducing CO2 Emissions
10
Source: IEA, 2011
Introduction to Megatrends
11
Definition of a Mega Trend
What is a Mega Trend?
• Mega trends are global, sustained and macro economic forces of development that impact business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives thereby defining our future world and its increasing pace of change.
Definition: Impact of Mega Trends on Key
Organizational Functions
Marketing
R&D Innovatio
12
change.
• Mega trends have diverse meanings and impacts for different industries, companies and individuals. Analysis of these mega trends and their implications forms an important component of a company’s future strategy, development and innovation process, and impacts product and technology planning.
R&D Budget Spending
Product Planning and
Develop-ment
Technology Planning
Innovation Scouting
Why Do Mega Trends Matter?
SMART Cities and
SMART Infrastructure
2
Summary of Megatrends
13
Innovating toward
Zero!
Low Carbon
Economy
1 3
Megatrend 1: Low Carbon Economy
14
Drivers for a Low Carbon Economy
15
Technologies and Services
Fuels &
Feedstocks
Alternative/
Renewables
Emission
Reduction
Energy
Efficiency
• Clean fuels
• Biofuels
• Hydrogen
• Biomass
• Waste to Energy
• Wind power
• Solar
• Biomass
• Fuel cells
• Energy storage
• Hydro
• Advanced turbines
• Air pollution control
• Coal to gas
• Clean coal
• Carbon capture &
• Green buildings
• Low energy
appliances
• Building control
products
• Smart meters &
Energy
Efficiency &
Renewables
Energy Efficiency Technology and Services Segments
Supply-side End-of-pipeSolutions Demand-side
16
• Waste to Energy • Hydro
• Wave, tidal
• Geothermal
• Carbon capture &
storage• Smart meters &
grids
• Smart homes
• Energy management
Renewables
• Biodiesel• Ethanol• Dual fuel systems• District Heating & Cooling
• Fuel cell vehicles
• Public Outdoor
Lighting
• Grid Monitoring
• Electric vehicles
• Hybrid vehicles
• Power quality
monitoring
• Mass transportation
• Vehicle efficiency
technology
Urban
Infrastructure &
Transportation
Environment
& Clean-Tech
• Bio solids
• Bio wastes
• Gasification
• Anaerobic digestion
• Biogas
• Pyrolysis
• Air filtration
• VOC control
• Water & wastewater
treatment
• Waste management
• Waste to energy
• Water recycling
• Energy recovery
• Waste recycling
• Desalination
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Case Study: ‘SMART’ Buildings in 2020
Green BuildingsGreen Buildings Intelligent BuildingsIntelligent Buildings
17
Implications and OpportunitiesImplications and Opportunities
• A smart and green building can conserve resources, use energy efficiently and create healthy occupied
environments
• This type of convergence will promote highly adaptable, sustainable and cost-effective buildings.
• Better monitoring and control of energy-intensive systems such as HVAC and lighting
• Opportunities: building automation systems, energy efficient lighting, green HVAC systems, integrated
security solutions
• A smart and green building can conserve resources, use energy efficiently and create healthy occupied
environments
• This type of convergence will promote highly adaptable, sustainable and cost-effective buildings.
• Better monitoring and control of energy-intensive systems such as HVAC and lighting
• Opportunities: building automation systems, energy efficient lighting, green HVAC systems, integrated
security solutions
M65B-18
Case Study: Integration between Buildings and Grids
Building Automation
� Advanced metering infrastructure (AMI)
facilitates 2-way communication
� Offices, hospitals selling excess energy back
to grid
� Demand response; energy use can be shifted
to off-peak hours
� Advanced metering infrastructure (AMI)
facilitates 2-way communication
� Offices, hospitals selling excess energy back
to grid
� Demand response; energy use can be shifted
to off-peak hours
� Fully networked systems that integrate data,
voice and video with security, HVAC, lighting
and other controls on a single IP-network
platform
� Conserve resources such as energy and
water, reduce emissions, and decrease waste
� Fully networked systems that integrate data,
voice and video with security, HVAC, lighting
and other controls on a single IP-network
platform
� Conserve resources such as energy and
water, reduce emissions, and decrease waste
Transformation of Conventional
Grid to Energy Internet (Smart Grid)
Transformation of Conventional
Buildings to Integrated Buildings
18
Building Automation
Controls and Software,
Wireless Sensors,
Demand Response
M65B-18
Case Study: Low Carbon Economy in the Chemicals Industry
19
Case Study: Dow Chemicals
20
Megatrend 2: SMART Cities and SMART
Infrastructure
21
Concept of SMART City
‘S”
Governance
‘S’ City
Planning
‘S’ Business‘S’ Citizen
‘S’ Buildings
Smart Diamond to define Smart citySmart Diamond to define Smart city
Smart Cities Smart Cities �� Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility
22
‘S’ Energy
‘S’ ICT
‘S’ Mobility
These 3 elements Will define the ‘Smart’
Mobility of the future
City’s InfrastructureLegend: City’s User community City’s Green Ecology
‘S’ Energy� Renewable energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure
‘S‘ City Planning � EV Charging, Smart Grid, Bus Rapid Transit, Parking Infrastructure, Congestion Charging
‘S’ Information Communication & Technology � Telematics, Navigation, Smart Metering, Internet Technologies
Source: Frost & Sullivan
“Green” to be Replaced with “Smart”
Smart CitiesSmart
Technology
Smart
Infrastructure
Smart
Hospitals
Smart MobilitySmart
BuildingsSmart Grids Smart Clouds
23
Smart
Materials
Smart
BandagesSmart Phones Smart Meters
Snapshot of a SMART Mega City in 2020
SMART Infrastructure:
Multimodal Transport
Hubs Providing Excellent
Air, Rail, Road
Connectivity to Other
Mega Cities
SMART Technology: Intelligent
Communication Systems
Connecting Home, Office, iPhone
and Car on a Single Wireless IT
Platform
SMART Energy: 20% of
Energy Produced in the
City will be Renewable
(Wind, Solar etc)
SMART Buildings: Atleast 50% of
buildings will be Green and
Intelligent built with BIPV. Around
20% of the buildings will be Net
Zero Buildings.
24
Satellite Towns: Main City
Centre will Merge with
Several Satellite Towns to
form ONE BIG MEGA CITYSMART Cars: Atleast 10% of Cars will
be Electric Vehicles. Free Fast
Charging Stations at every half mile
SMART GRID:
Infrastructure to Enable
Real time monitoring of
power flow and Provide
Energy Surplus Back
to the Grid
Source: Google Images
Boulder
Vancouver
Toronto
San Francisco
PortlandSeattle
Montreal
St Davids
Clonburris
Göteborg
Hammarby Sjöstad
London
Reykjavik Oslo
Freiburg
Stockholm
Copenhagen
GIFT
Tianjin
Songdo
Amsterdam
SMART Mega Cities in 2020
Over 40 global cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of smart cities of 2025
will be from Europe and North America. China and India to see over 50 New “Sustainable”
Cities
25
Cities built from scratch
Existing eco cities
Existing eco megacities
Treasure Island
Arcosanti
Coyote SpringsDestiny
Babcock Ranch
TorontoPortland
Curitiba
Bogota
Barcelona
Paris
Kochi
Cape Town
Pune
Dongtan
Changsha
KhajurahoMeixi Lake
Waitakere, N.Z.
Singapore City
Moreland, Australia
Masdar
Case Study: Amsterdam
SMART MOBILITY
SMART HOME
SMART OFFICE BUILDINGS
• 39% commute by bicycle
• 400+ Km of dedicated cycle
route
• To familiarise electric bicycle
taxis
• 200 charging stations by 2012;
• 10,000 EVs By 2015
• Encourage car sharing
• Cheaper parking slots at
• ITO tower is testing the use of various
energy saving technologies including smart
meters and energy efficient appliances to
cut energy consumption
• This smart building to feature design
aesthetics that absorb natural light and air
SMART COMMUTE to WORK
• 25 MNCs have jointly signed to reduce
home to work car miles by 10% by 2012
• Incentive/free bicycles to employees
• Free & protected bike parks at offices to
encourage cycle use.
• Work from home initiatives
Solar panel
26
P+R• Cheaper parking slots at
public transit stations to
park cars and board trains
• 1200 existing houses to adopt smart meters,
energy saving appliances & smart displays
that stimulate behavioral change in energy
consumption
• Smart grid that enable interaction between
the household and the grid to help optimise
energy production & distribution
• Smart meters – 14% reduction in energy use
• Decentralized energy generation by roof
mounted mini wind mill & solar panels
aesthetics that absorb natural light and air
from the environment
x • Yearly reduction of parking
spaces and increase of tariffs
inside the city.
• 30 kmph speed limits on 80%
of roads inside the city -
makes bicycles faster by
atleast 50% on a A-B trip
• 154 shore power connections
to charge inland cargo vessels
and river cruisers to be
installed by 2012
*****
SMART PUBLIC SPACE
• Utrechtsestraat – the popular shopping
street downtown with 130+ shops is to
feature smart metering & energy efficient
street lighting technologies,
• Tram stops made sustainable with solar
powered displays and billboards
• Solar powered garbage bins with built in
compacters to reduce the trip rates of
garbage collector trucks
wind mill
Smart meter
Solar
powered
M65B-18
Megatrend 3: Innovating To Zero !
27
Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020
Zero
Zero Waste/
Emissions
from Factories
Complete
Zero
Defects
Zero
Debts
28
Zero
Emissions
from Cars
Zero
Fatalities/
Accidents
on Roads
Zero
Breaches
of Security
Zero Crime
Rates
Complete
Recyclability
from Households
(Cradle to Cradle
Concept)
Possible Zero Emission Technologies in Power Generation
Wind Energy
Third Generation Bio Fuels
To account for 1,900,000
MW of electricity
production in 2020
“INNOVATING
TO
By 2022, algae biofuels will
be the largest biofuel
category overall, accounting
for 40 billion of the estimated
109 billion gallons of biofuels
produced.
29
Solar PV CellsGeothermal Energy
Ocean Energy
Capacity of solar power
to increase from 21,540
MW in 2020 to 630,000
MW in 2040
Share of geothermal
electricity in total
electricity produced in
2020 is 1.5%
TO
ZERO!”
To supply approximately
10 percent of the world's
electricity needs by 2020