Megan Anaya Seiji Steimetz, Ph.D. Economics Student ...€¦ · 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF Consumer Confidence & Debt $1 tril. $3 tril. $0.5 $1.5 $2.5 $3.5 2009

Seiji Steimetz, Ph.D.

Professor & Chair of Economics

Cal State Long Beach

Megan Anaya

Economics Student


Presented at the2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum

2019

#LBREF

2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum

#LBREF

National Economic Update


#LBREF

Gross Domestic Product

$20.5 trillion

$14

$15

$16

$17

$18

$19

$20

$21

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Real GDP ($ trillions)

GDP

Component% of 2018 GDP

Consumption 68.1%

Investment 17.8%

Government 17.2%

Net Exports -3.1%

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED); Bureau of Economic Analysis

Growth Rates 2016 2017 2018

GDP 1.6% 2.2% 2.9%

Personal

Income1.7% 2.6% 2.9%


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Unemployment

3.9%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Unemployment Rate

U3 Rate U6 Rate

2018 Net Job Gains by Sector (1,000s)

Professional and Business Services 537

Education & Health Services 499

Leisure & Hospitality 410

Manufacturing 242

Construction 223

Transportation & Warehousing 194.5

Financial Activities 102

Wholesale Trade 94.9

Other Services 78

Transportation Equipment 58.6

Information 3

Utilities -0.6

Retail Trade -4.5

Net Total Job Gain 2.43 million

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); Bureau of Labor Statistics


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Inflation & Federal Funds Rate

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Inflation Rate FED Funds Rate • Current Inflation Rate:

2.14%

• Target Inflation Rate:

2.00%

• Target Unemployment:

4.00% to 4.60%

• Relaxation of “Quantitative Easing"

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); www.federalreserve.gov


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Consumer Confidence & Debt

$1 tril.

$3 tril.

$0.5

$1.5

$2.5

$3.5

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

Consumer Debt ($ trillions)

Revolving Nonrevolving

Source: Conference Board/OECD; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

Consumer Confidence Index

2018:

5% Debt

Increase


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Housing Starts & Durable Goods

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

Housing Starts (millions)

Source: Census Economic Indicators – Seasonally Adjusted

$190

$200

$210

$220

$230

$240

$250

$260

$270

$280

Durable Goods Orders ($ bil.)


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Financial Markets

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

S&P 500 Index

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)

-0.04%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

10yr – 3mo Treasury Rate Spread

“Yield Curve

Inversion”


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Long Beach RegionalEconomic Update


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Population, Household Income, Unemployment, and Education


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Population

12.3% 13.2%

43.2%

28.1%

3.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Racial/Ethnic Composition

2016 2017

469,459

10.2 mil.

39.5 mil.

98

100

102

104

106

108

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Population Index

Long Beach LA County CA

Source: Census American Community Survey


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Household and Per-Capita Income

$60,557

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

$65,000

$70,000

$75,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Median Household Income


$32,006

$25,000

$27,000

$29,000

$31,000

$33,000

$35,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Median Per-Capita Income




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Unemployment

4.7%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Unemployment Rate


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Long Beach

Feb. 2019

4.2%


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Education

79.0%79.8%

75%

80%

85%

2016 2017

Percentage Age 25+ with at least a

High School Diploma


30.1%

31.1%

28%

29%

30%

31%

32%

33%

34%

2016 2017

Percentage Age 25+ with at least a

Bachelor’s Degree




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Jobs


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Job Sectors

Major Occupation SectorLong Beach

Employees

Long Beach

%

LA County

%

California

%

Management, Business,

Science, & Arts86,720 37.5% 37.0% 38.7%

Service 47,049 20.3% 19.1% 18.6%

Sales & Office 52,155 22.6% 23.5% 22.5%

Natural Resources,

Construction, & Maintenance15,613 6.8% 7.7% 9.1%

Production, Transportation,

& Material Moving29,688 12.8% 12.7% 11.0%

Total Civilian

Employed Population231,225



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Job Sector Patterns


4.1%

-3.3%

1.7%

-10.4%

-4.6%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Management,

Business, Science, &

Arts

Service Sales & Office Natural Resources,

Construction, &

Maintenance

Production,

Transportation, &

Material Moving

2016-2017 Changes in Employment of Long Beach Residents



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WagesMedian Annual Wages Long Beach LA County California

Management, Business,

Science, & Arts$62,061 $61,645 $67,561

Service $21,542 $20,804 $21,330

Sales & Office $31,713 $31,046 $31,938

Natural Resources,

Construction, & Maintenance$36,945 $32,016 $35,038

Production, Transportation,

& Material Moving$29,458 $26,789 $30,207

Overall Median Wage $36,438 $35,110 $38,170



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Wage Growth by Job Sector


0.8%

6.3%

14.7%

10.7%

2.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Management,

Business, Science, &

Arts

Service Sales & Office Natural Resources,

Construction, &

Maintenance

Production,

Transportation, &

Material Moving

2016-2017 Changes in Median Wages of Long Beach ResidentsLong Beach LA County CA


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Employment Growth by Industry (2015-2017)

-24.2%

22.9%

6.0%

50.7%

0.4%

4.8%

-8.5%

-11.2%

32.6%

-2.2%

8.4%

-5.3%

Wholesale trade

Transportation, warehousing, utilities

Retail trade

Public administration

Professional, scientific, management

Other services

Manufacturing

Leisure , accommodation, food services

Information

Finance, insurance, real estate

Education, health, social assistance

Construction



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Wage Growth by Industry (2015-2017)

6.6%

-9.3%

-5.3%

-9.4%

14.0%

27.3%

21.2%

-3.8%

1.2%

13.7%

1.3%

1.3%

Wholesale trade

Transportation, warehousing, utilities

Retail trade

Public administration

Professional, scientific, management

Other services

Manufacturing

Leisure, accommodation, food services

Information

Finance, insurance, real estate

Education, health, social assistance

Construction



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Real Estate


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Home Prices

$628,900

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

Median Single Family Home Value


Source: Zillow Research/ZTRAX

Current Median Values

All Home Types$

1yr %

change

5yr %

change

Seal Beach $997,100 6.4% 4.4%

Huntington Beach $833,400 2.7% 3.9%

Cypress $680,500 1.3% 5.0%

Long Beach $597,400 3.3% 5.9%

Lakewood $589,600 2.5% 5.7%

Carson $548,600 5.2% 7.5%

Bellflower $527,600 3.3% 7.1%

LA-Long Beach-Anaheim

Metropolitan Area$652,200 2.5% 6.2%


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Apartment Rents

$1,800

$2,360

$1,500

$1,700

$1,900

$2,100

$2,300

2017 2018 2019

Median Rent (Multi-Unit Buildings)

Long Beach LA-LB-Anaheim

Source: Zillow Research/ZTRAX; PolicyMap

Current Median Rents

Multi-Unit Buildings$

2yr %

change

Huntington Beach $2,235 -22.8%

Carson $2,150 14.7%

Lakewood $2,030 17.2%

Whittier $1,830 3.2%

Long Beach $1,800 10.8%

Paramount $1,635 6.3%

Bellflower $1,600 10.3%

LA-Long Beach-Anaheim

Metropolitan Area$2,360 6.2%


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Residential Construction & Vacancy

128

73

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Residential Construction Permits

Single Unit Multi Unit

Source: Census Building Permits Survey; Valassis Lists

0.75%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0.90%

1.00%

1.10%

1.20%

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2019

Q1

Residential Vacancy Rates



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Office Market

2018 4th Quarter Office MarketTotal

Square Feet

%

Leased

Available

Square Feet

Rent per

square foot

Downtown – Class A 1,436,314 84.6% 221,280 $3.03

Downtown – Class B 2,441,612 79.5% 501,519 $2.35

Downtown – Class C 223,2948 94.2% 12,930 $1.65

Downtown LB Totals 4,101,220 82.1% 735,729 $2.35

405/710 Corridor 984,438 95.0% 49,394 $2.20

Bixby Knolls/Signal Hill 742,617 86.4% 101,182 $1.94

East Long Beach/Seal Beach 912,824 89.3% 97,410 $2.35

Long Beach Airport Area 2,383,659 94.0% 143,311 $2.58

Suburban LB Totals 5,023,538 92.2% 391,297 $2.27

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Office Market Survey Q4 18 Snapshot


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Non-Residential Construction & Vacancy

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

Non-Residential Permit Values

($ millions)

Commercial Industrial Retail

Office Hotel Alterations

$650m

Source: Construction Industry Research Board; Valassis Lists

5.60%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2019

Q1

Business Vacancy Rates



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Business Climate


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Taxable Sales

$1.19b

$1.36b

$1.1

$1.2

$1.3

$1.4

$1.5

2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1

Long Beach Taxable Sales ($ bil.)

Source: California Department of Tax and Fee Administration

$37.4b

$38.5b

$37

$38

$39

$40

$41

$42

2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1

LA County Taxable Sales ($ bil.)

2.7% Increase14.3% Increase


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Downtown Retail Sales

Source: Downtown Long Beach Economic Profile

$590m

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Downtown LB Retail Sales ($mil.)

11.8%

16.6%15.5% 14.8%

18.9%

21.0%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Annual Growth Rates


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Long Beach Small Business Survey

Source: Long Beach Small Business Monitor 2019

55%

31%

14%

40%37%

23%

55%

29%

16%

50%

33%

17%

43%

34%

24%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Get Better? Remain the Same? Get Worse?

“Will the economy for small business in the Long Beach region…”

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


#LBREF


21%

29%31%

29%27%

33%30% 28%

6% 7% 7% 8%

13%

6% 7%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Increase Decrease

“Do you expect your hiring of new employees to increase, decrease, or be unchanged?”



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31%28%

41%

35%

31%

35% 35%

39%

20%

14%

18% 17% 17%

13% 12% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Increase Decrease

“Do you expect spending on equipment & supplies to increase, decrease or be unchanged?”



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Port of Long Beach

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Loaded TEUs

Inbound Outbound Total

Source: Port of Long Beach

• 2018 Record Volume:

5.6 million loaded TEUs


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Economic Impact


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What is Economic Impact Analysis?D

irec

t Induced


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Analysis Region

Los Angeles County

Orange County

• Los Angeles and Orange Counties

• Population: 13.35 million

• Employment: 8.69 million

• Gross Regional Product: $1.01 trillion

Source: IMPLAN; American Community Survey Public Use Microdata


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Economic Impactof Long Beach & Signal Hill Residents

• Population: 484,061

• Employed Residents: 238,827

• Regional Economic Impact: $92.7 billion• Direct Impact (GRP): $53.3 billion

• Indirect & Induced Impact: $39.4 billion

• Additional Jobs Supported: 217,995

Source: 2017 IMPLAN Model Year


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Economic Impactof Long Beach & Signal Hill Residents

Five Most Impactful Sectors


Sector Employment Economic Impact% of Long Beach’s

Economic Impact

Petroleum Refineries 1,256 $8.16 billion 8.8%

Real Estate 14,797 $4.53 billion 4.9%

Wholesale Trade 16,685 $4.07 billion 4.4%

Aircraft Manufacturing 4,640 $3.80 billion 4.1%

Hospitals 15,828 $2.89 billion 3.1%


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Economic Impact of Self-EmployedLong Beach & Signal Hill Residents

• Self-Employed Residents: 25,238

• Regional Economic Impact: $6.2 billion• Direct Impact (GRP): $3.4 billion

• Indirect & Induced Impact: $2.8 billion

• Additional Jobs Supported: 16,342



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Economic Impact of Self-EmployedLong Beach & Signal Hill Residents

Five Most Impactful Sectors


Sector Employment Economic Impact% of Long Beach’s

Economic Impact

Real Estate 2,543 $793.2 million 0.86%

Construction of

New Commercial Structures2,935 $445.0 million 0.48%

Wholesale Trade 927 $228.1 million 0.25%

Insurance Carriers 430 $189.3 million 0.22%

Management Consulting 1,443 $181.4 million 0.20%

Seiji Steimetz, Ph.D.

Professor & Chair of Economics


Megan Anaya

Economics Student


Presented at the2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum

Documents

Megan Anaya Seiji Steimetz, Ph.D. Economics Student ...€¦ · 2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum #LBREF Consumer Confidence & Debt $1 tril. $3 tril. $0.5 $1.5 $2.5 $3.5 2009