Committee to Assess Progress Committee to Assess Progress Toward Achieving the Decadal Toward Achieving the Decadal

Vision in Astronomy & Vision in Astronomy & Astrophysics Astrophysics

((a.k.a.a.k.a. Mid-Course Review) Mid-Course Review)

Meg UrryMeg UrryYale UniversityYale University

Co-chair, NRC Committee on Astronomy & Co-chair, NRC Committee on Astronomy & AstrophysicsAstrophysics

AAAC – February 12,2005AAAC – February 12,2005

OriginOrigin

CAA CAA (=Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics)(=Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics) and parent Boardsand parent Boards (BPA=Board on Physics and (BPA=Board on Physics and Astronomy and SSB=Space Studies Board)Astronomy and SSB=Space Studies Board) asked asked whether science strategy of decadal whether science strategy of decadal survey survey (AANM=(AANM=Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New MillenniumMillennium)) supplemented by Q2C report supplemented by Q2C report (=(=Connecting Quarks with the Cosmos: Eleven Science Connecting Quarks with the Cosmos: Eleven Science Questions for the New CenturyQuestions for the New Century)) is on course or is on course or should be reexamined. should be reexamined.

Discussion prompted by changes in Discussion prompted by changes in substancesubstance (scientific and technical advances)(scientific and technical advances) and and contextcontext (Q2C, NASA, NSF, DOE).(Q2C, NASA, NSF, DOE).

NRC initiated the study. NRC initiated the study.

Charge to the Charge to the CommitteeCommittee

“ “An NRC committee will prepare a short report An NRC committee will prepare a short report reviewing the scientific discoveries and technical reviewing the scientific discoveries and technical advances in astronomy and astrophysics over the advances in astronomy and astrophysics over the 5 years since the publication of the decadal 5 years since the publication of the decadal survey, survey, Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New MillenniumMillennium (AANM). It will address the implications (AANM). It will address the implications of scientific and technical developments as well as of scientific and technical developments as well as changes in the federal program. It will assess changes in the federal program. It will assess progress toward realizing the vision for the field progress toward realizing the vision for the field articulated in AANM and supplemented by articulated in AANM and supplemented by Connecting Quarks with the CosmosConnecting Quarks with the Cosmos.”.”

Committee Committee MembershipMembership Meg Urry, Meg Urry, Yale University,Yale University,

ChairChair (CAA, BPA)(CAA, BPA) Lars Bildsten, Lars Bildsten, University University

of California, Santa Barbara of California, Santa Barbara (CAA)(CAA)

Roger Blandford, Roger Blandford, Stanford University (CAA, Stanford University (CAA, SSB, Q2C)SSB, Q2C)

John Carlstrom, John Carlstrom, University of Chicago University of Chicago (CAA)(CAA)

Neal Evans, II, Neal Evans, II, University University of Texas of Texas

Jacqueline Hewitt, Jacqueline Hewitt, Massachusetts Institute of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (SSB)Technology (SSB)

Craig Hogan, Craig Hogan, University University of Washington of Washington

John Huchra, John Huchra, Harvard-Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (Q2C)Astrophysics (Q2C)

Christopher McKee, Christopher McKee, University of California, University of California, Berkeley (AASC, BPA)Berkeley (AASC, BPA)

Anneila Sargent, Anneila Sargent, California Institute of California Institute of Technology (AASC, BPA)Technology (AASC, BPA)

Sara Seager, Sara Seager, Carnegie Carnegie Institution of WashingtonInstitution of Washington

Charles Woodward, Charles Woodward, University of Minnesota University of Minnesota (CAA)(CAA)

Structure of Letter Structure of Letter ReportReport

Summary of changes Summary of changes (substance/context)(substance/context)

Overview of science advancesOverview of science advances Overview of tech developmentsOverview of tech developments Assessment of progress toward VisionAssessment of progress toward Vision

– OpportunitiesOpportunities– ObstaclesObstacles

ScienceScience Do new discoveries (e.g., dark Do new discoveries (e.g., dark

energy) require new survey to energy) require new survey to exploit?exploit?

Dramatic advances since 2000:Dramatic advances since 2000:I.I. Dark energy, structure of the Universe Dark energy, structure of the Universe II.II. Planets/disks around other starsPlanets/disks around other starsIII.III. Formation and evolution of black holesFormation and evolution of black holes

I. The Age of the Universe, I. The Age of the Universe, the History of Its Expansion, and the History of Its Expansion, and the Nature of Matter and Energythe Nature of Matter and Energy

Dark Energy and Fundamental Physics Dark Energy and Fundamental Physics Dark Matter and the Density of the Dark Matter and the Density of the

UniverseUniverse The Dawn of the Modern Universe: The The Dawn of the Modern Universe: The

First Stars First Stars The First Galaxies and Early Star The First Galaxies and Early Star

FormationFormation

HST

WMAP

CXO

II. Our Place in the Cosmos: the II. Our Place in the Cosmos: the Formation of Stars and Planetary Formation of Stars and Planetary Systems, and the Sun’s Effect on Systems, and the Sun’s Effect on

EarthEarth Planets Around Other Stars Planets Around Other Stars Planetary Formation Planetary Formation Solar System Formation Solar System Formation The Physics of the Sun and Its Effect The Physics of the Sun and Its Effect

on Our World on Our World Our Galaxy’s Supermassive Black Hole Our Galaxy’s Supermassive Black Hole

and Star Formation and Star Formation

http://www.nationalacademies.org/

III. The Formation and Evolution of III. The Formation and Evolution of Black Holes and Probing Strong Black Holes and Probing Strong

Gravity and High DensitiesGravity and High Densities Solving the Mystery of the X-ray Solving the Mystery of the X-ray

Background Background Supermassive Black Holes in Galaxy Nuclei Supermassive Black Holes in Galaxy Nuclei Exploring Curved Space-Time Around Exploring Curved Space-Time Around

Spinning Black Holes Spinning Black Holes Neutron Star Laboratories for Precision Neutron Star Laboratories for Precision

Tests of General Relativity and Physics at Tests of General Relativity and Physics at High DensitiesHigh Densities

http://www.nationalacademies.org/

TechnologyTechnology Successful implementation of AANM Successful implementation of AANM

requires timely and sustained requires timely and sustained commitment to technology commitment to technology development. development.

Committee seesCommittee sees no technological no technological breakthroughs or challenges that breakthroughs or challenges that require further assessment or require further assessment or imperil AANM vision.imperil AANM vision.– TPF-C handled in recent NRC TPF letter report.TPF-C handled in recent NRC TPF letter report.

New technologies may arise in new New technologies may arise in new Exploration Vision; if so, optimal for Exploration Vision; if so, optimal for input to next decadal survey. input to next decadal survey.

Human CapitalHuman Capital

Significant and pressing concern: Significant and pressing concern: effect of ongoing programmatic effect of ongoing programmatic changes on young investigators.changes on young investigators.

Talented students are strongly Talented students are strongly attracted to astronomy and attracted to astronomy and astrophysics but are hesitant in the astrophysics but are hesitant in the current uncertain climate to commit current uncertain climate to commit their future careers to the field. their future careers to the field.

AssessmentAssessment

“ “The remarkable advancesThe remarkable advances in in understanding in astronomy and astrophysics understanding in astronomy and astrophysics achieved over the past 5 yearsachieved over the past 5 years do notdo not require that the NRCrequire that the NRC reexamine the reexamine the AANM report orAANM report or undertake an in-depth undertake an in-depth mid-course reviewmid-course review of the scientific goals of the scientific goals or recommended priorities. On the contrary, or recommended priorities. On the contrary, progress in the field validates the broad scientific progress in the field validates the broad scientific program envisioned by the survey and program envisioned by the survey and implemented thus far by the agencies.” implemented thus far by the agencies.”

Balance and FlexibilityBalance and Flexibility Balance across subdisciplines critical Balance across subdisciplines critical

in astronomy and astrophysics.in astronomy and astrophysics. Most exciting scientific discoveries Most exciting scientific discoveries

from new instruments often not from new instruments often not anticipated. anticipated. (Programs must be flexible (Programs must be flexible enough to explore unforeseen phenomena.)enough to explore unforeseen phenomena.)

Success of A&A decadal survey Success of A&A decadal survey programs over past 50 years attests programs over past 50 years attests to wisdom of balanced approach. to wisdom of balanced approach.

Interagency Interagency CoordinationCoordination Formation of AAAC and interagency Formation of AAAC and interagency

teams teams (viz. OSTP’s (viz. OSTP’s The Physics of the The Physics of the UniverseUniverse)) are significant and are significant and important for achieving decadal important for achieving decadal vision. vision.

Coordination works because of Coordination works because of strong planning process in this field strong planning process in this field - the astronomy and astrophysics surveys - the astronomy and astrophysics surveys provide the strategic underpinnings for a provide the strategic underpinnings for a cohesive interagency effort.cohesive interagency effort.

Strategic Planning (NSF & Strategic Planning (NSF & DOE)DOE)

Strategic planning underway at NSFStrategic planning underway at NSF Astronomy Division isAstronomy Division is essential stepessential step towardtoward transformation necessary fortransformation necessary for managing large managing large AANM projects. AANM projects.

Senior reviews valuable for Senior reviews valuable for periodic assessment periodic assessment ofof allocation of resources across disciplinesallocation of resources across disciplines. .

Future planning for astronomy and astrophysics should Future planning for astronomy and astrophysics should take into account thetake into account the increasing involvement of increasing involvement of the DOE’s Office of Sciencethe DOE’s Office of Science and the scientists and the scientists that it supports. that it supports. – DOE should continue to coordinate its program with NASA and DOE should continue to coordinate its program with NASA and

the NSF; its participation in the AAAC is an important step.the NSF; its participation in the AAAC is an important step.

Strategic Planning Strategic Planning (NASA)(NASA) NASA has an important tradition of NASA has an important tradition of

roadmapping and strategic planning, roadmapping and strategic planning, carried out with help from the agency’s FACA carried out with help from the agency’s FACA advisory committees.advisory committees.

Beyond EinsteinBeyond Einstein roadmap is excellent roadmap is excellent synthesis and implementation of synthesis and implementation of AANM and Q2C reports.AANM and Q2C reports.– Demonstrates how agency processes can Demonstrates how agency processes can

integrate new discoveries into the broad integrate new discoveries into the broad framework laid out by the decadal survey.framework laid out by the decadal survey.

Explorers and ProbesExplorers and Probes Implementation of Einstein probes Implementation of Einstein probes to be to be

carried outcarried out inin competitivecompetitive environmentenvironment designeddesigned to yield best science. to yield best science.

Concept of Einstein Probes builds on Concept of Einstein Probes builds on legacy legacy of successful, cost-effectiveof successful, cost-effective Explorer line Explorer line of missions.of missions.

Explorers (Probes) allow NASA to respond Explorers (Probes) allow NASA to respond to new scientific discoveries to new scientific discoveries without waiting for without waiting for the next decadal survey. the next decadal survey.

Open, competitive nature of Open, competitive nature of Explorers/Probes ensures best science Explorers/Probes ensures best science is is done and adds to vitality of field.done and adds to vitality of field.

Beyond EinsteinBeyond Einstein Beyond EinsteinBeyond Einstein includes AANM high- includes AANM high-

priority missions Con-X and LISApriority missions Con-X and LISA as facility-as facility-class missions called Einstein Great Observatories.class missions called Einstein Great Observatories.

Einstein Great Observatories will provide Einstein Great Observatories will provide broad and flexible science returnbroad and flexible science return across all across all of astrophysics, like HST, CGRO, Chandra, and Spitzer.of astrophysics, like HST, CGRO, Chandra, and Spitzer.

Support for Beyond Einstein projects Support for Beyond Einstein projects needs to be sustained.needs to be sustained. Especially important for Especially important for projects now underway, in order to maintain continuity in projects now underway, in order to maintain continuity in expertise.expertise.

Aldridge commissionAldridge commission’s notional science agenda ’s notional science agenda for implementing the new Exploration Visionfor implementing the new Exploration Vision includesincludes thethe scientific goalsscientific goals articulatedarticulated in in Beyond Beyond EinsteinEinstein roadmaproadmap..

TheoryTheory NSF postdoctoral fellowshipsNSF postdoctoral fellowships open to open to

theoriststheorists and realand real growth in individual growth in individual grantsgrants program have been positive responses program have been positive responses to AANM recommendations on theory. to AANM recommendations on theory.

No theory challenges have been No theory challenges have been explicitly implementedexplicitly implemented in any AANM-in any AANM-recommended initiatives now underway, recommended initiatives now underway, potentially inhibiting the synergy envisioned by potentially inhibiting the synergy envisioned by the AANM survey committee, which advocated the AANM survey committee, which advocated the kind of broad, visionary theory program that the kind of broad, visionary theory program that enhances the discovery potential of future enhances the discovery potential of future missions. missions.

Hubble Hubble (in time of rapid (in time of rapid change!)change!) Committee agrees with Committee agrees with

conclusions of Lanzerotti report conclusions of Lanzerotti report (Committee on the Assessment of Options for (Committee on the Assessment of Options for Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope)Extending the Life of the Hubble Space Telescope)::– Future promise of extended HST Future promise of extended HST

mission is unquestionably exciting mission is unquestionably exciting and of immense value. and of immense value.

– Only effective means of servicing Only effective means of servicing HST is shuttle servicing mission. HST is shuttle servicing mission.

Future re Hubble Future re Hubble AANM priorities should form basis of AANM priorities should form basis of

nation’s programnation’s program in astronomy and in astronomy and astrophysics even if HST ceases operation [before astrophysics even if HST ceases operation [before 2010]. 2010].

If cost of repairing HST orIf cost of repairing HST or developingdeveloping a a fast-trackfast-track HST replacementHST replacement is largeis large enough enough to threaten the timely completion of a substantial to threaten the timely completion of a substantial fraction of the projects recommended in the AANM fraction of the projects recommended in the AANM report and Q2C, thenreport and Q2C, then scientific community scientific community should be involved in assessing the should be involved in assessing the relative valuerelative value of HST or its replacement vis-à-of HST or its replacement vis-à-vis the affected program.vis the affected program.

Exploration InitiativeExploration Initiative

NASA’s new Exploration Initiative has brought aNASA’s new Exploration Initiative has brought a welcome new purposewelcome new purpose to human spaceflight side of to human spaceflight side of agency and has provided some new opportunities for selected agency and has provided some new opportunities for selected areas of the science program. areas of the science program.

Long-term impact on astronomy and Long-term impact on astronomy and astrophysicsastrophysics not entirely clearnot entirely clear butbut short-term short-term changes are already having an effect, and there are community changes are already having an effect, and there are community concerns thatconcerns that serious problems may lie aheadserious problems may lie ahead. .

Committee very concernedCommittee very concerned that selective impacts will that selective impacts will adversely affect NASA’s ability to generate the kind of adversely affect NASA’s ability to generate the kind of transformational sciencetransformational science that is hallmark of past decades. that is hallmark of past decades.

Committee believes thatCommittee believes that maintaining the breadth of maintaining the breadth of the astronomy and astrophysics enterprise at the astronomy and astrophysics enterprise at NASA is consistent with new Exploration Vision.NASA is consistent with new Exploration Vision.

ConclusionConclusion The committee and the community it The committee and the community it

represents value immensely therepresents value immensely the ongoing ongoing dialog betweendialog between the astronomy and the astronomy and astrophysicsastrophysics community and the community and the agenciesagencies..

As long as the necessary breadth and As long as the necessary breadth and balance are maintained in the current balance are maintained in the current scientific program for astronomy and scientific program for astronomy and astrophysics,astrophysics, prospects for an prospects for an unprecedented decade of unprecedented decade of discovery are indeed bright. discovery are indeed bright.

Backup SlidesBackup Slides

AANM Key Science QuestionsAANM Key Science Questions

How did universe begin, how did it evolve How did universe begin, how did it evolve from primordial soup of elementary from primordial soup of elementary particles into complex structures seen particles into complex structures seen today, and what is its destiny?today, and what is its destiny?

How do galaxies first arise and mature?How do galaxies first arise and mature? How are stars born and how do they live How are stars born and how do they live

and die?and die? How do planets form and change as they How do planets form and change as they

age?age? Does life exist elsewhere in the universe?Does life exist elsewhere in the universe?

Q2C Key Science Q2C Key Science QuestionsQuestions

1.1. What is dark matter?What is dark matter?2.2. What is dark energy?What is dark energy?3.3. How did the universe How did the universe

begin?begin?4.4. Was Einstein right Was Einstein right

about gravity?about gravity?5.5. How have neutrinos How have neutrinos

shaped the universe?shaped the universe?6.6. What are nature’s What are nature’s

most energetic most energetic particles?particles?

7.7. Are protons unstable?Are protons unstable?8.8. What are the new What are the new

states of matter?states of matter?9.9. Are there more space-Are there more space-

time dimensions?time dimensions?10.10.How were elements How were elements

from Fe to Uraniumfrom Fe to Uranium made?made?

11.11. Is new theory of light Is new theory of light and matter needed?and matter needed?

ReviewersReviewers Donald C. Backer, University of California, Donald C. Backer, University of California,

Berkeley,Berkeley, Andrea M. Ghez, University of California, Los Andrea M. Ghez, University of California, Los

Angeles,Angeles, Jonathan E. Grindlay, Harvard University,Jonathan E. Grindlay, Harvard University, Natalie A. Roe, Lawrence Berkeley National Natalie A. Roe, Lawrence Berkeley National

Laboratory,Laboratory, Joseph H. Taylor, Jr., Princeton University,Joseph H. Taylor, Jr., Princeton University, Alan M. Title, Lockheed Martin,Alan M. Title, Lockheed Martin, J. Craig Wheeler, University of Texas, andJ. Craig Wheeler, University of Texas, and Edward L. Wright, University of California, Los Edward L. Wright, University of California, Los

Angeles.Angeles.