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Alternative Energy and Oil Imports
Claim #3: If we develop alternative energy sources, this will end our dependence on
imported oil
FALSE
The State of Fossil Fuels:USA and World Resources
• The United States consumes 21 million barrels/day• 25% of the world consumption• Highest consumption per capita after Canada and Saudi Arabia• About 70% of this amount is imported (from Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq….)
Why don’t we produce more?
How Much Oil Do We Have?
Country Proved Reserves*
Billion barrels
ProductionMillion barrels
No of Producing Wells
Saudi Arabia 263 9.1 1560
Canada 179 3.3
Iran 131 4.0 1120
Iraq 115 1.1 1685
UAE 98 2.4
Kuwait 97 2.2 790
Venezuela 78 2.1 15,395
Russia 69 9.2 41,192
U.S.A. 29 5.7 521,070
* excludes oil shale
Drill Baby Drill!
In the US, average production from a single well: 11 barrels/day
In Saudi Arabia, production from a single well: 5800 barrels/day
Drill Baby Drill!
Best case scenario (1 in 20 chances): 1% of world’s production5% reduction in imports in 2030
Source:US Dept
of Energy,2008
Cost of Drilling
Between 1973 and 1980:
New capital investment in the US economy going to oil industry increased from 2% to 7%
Total footage of drilled wells increased three fold
THE RETURN?US production declined by 7%
$100 Billion net loss (2% of GDP)
US Energy ConsumptionEnergy flow in 2007 from the US Department of Energy
Petroleum: 39.82
Importe
d Pet
role
um:
28.7
0Transportation: 29.10
Unit: Quadrillion Btus
Petroleum Use
• Primary Use: Transportation
Transportation uses up all of the imported oil
How can we replace the petroleum use?
Other uses: Heating, Production of Plastics, Lubricants, Asphalt, Wax
• Agriculture: Industrial farming is extremely oil-intensive
Biofuels?
• A very complex question
• Idea: derive liquid fuels such as ethanol from agricultural crops (prime crops)
• Has 2/3 the energy content of petroleum, at roughly twice the cost
• Has benefited from federal and state subsidies
• Takes about 1 gallon of petroleum to make enough ethanol to replace 1 gallon of petroleum (unless derived from agricultural/bio waste)
• Look at the larger relationship between petroleum and agriculture
Fossil Fuels and Agriculture
• After transportation, agriculture uses the largest amount of oil at 17%
Fossil Fuels and Agriculture
• After transportation, agriculture uses the largest amount of oil at 17% • We use fossil fuels to make fertilizers, operation of machinery, transportation, irrigation
Fossil Fuels and Agriculture
• After transportation, agriculture uses the largest amount of oil at 17% • We use fossil fuels to make fertilizers, operation of machinery, transportation, irrigation
• Today, 400 gallons of oil is used to feed each American annually
• It is accurate to say our diet includes fossil fuels
• Policies for single-crop farming have worsened the situation
Responsible Biofuels
IF prairie grass can be grown in otherwise unusable land, and IF enzymes can be developed to produce ethanol economically, a good solution
OTHERWISE,
Economically, socially, environmentally, and scientifically
a bad idea
First order of business:Couple electricity to transportation
Electric / Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles HAVE TO BE PART OF THE SOLUTION!
Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)Use on on-board electricityRecharged from electrical gridNo combustion engine
Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)Combustion engine plus one or more electric motors. Uses only hydrocarbon fuel
Slide Credit: Electric Power Research Institute
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)
Should I replace my car?
• It costs a lot of energy and materials to build a new car
• If you have a functioning, reasonable fuel-efficiency car
(> 20 or so mpg), do not replace it
When you replace it, buy a plug-in hybrid electric car
Hydrogen Fuel Cells• Hydrogen cells store energy, do not produce it
• Hydrogen is a very inefficient way of storing energy
• Manufacturing (liquid) hydrogen tanks is extremely expensive
• Overall efficiency (electrolysis x compression x fuel cell) = 40 %
Hydropower 7%
Oil 3%
Renewables 2%
Coal 52%
Nuclear 20%
Natural Gas 16%
US Electricity Production Sources
Source: US Department of Energy
Are there any concerns with the current state of affairs?
Sustainable? Economical? Environmentally friendly?
Prospects for Electricity Production
• Natural gas: burns reasonably cleanly, cheapest in plant construction and fuel costs but reserves diminishing rapidly
• Hydroelectric: truly clean and renewable, some environmental concerns, but most of the U.S. capacity developed
• Coal: 200 yrs reserves, cheapest after natural gas, but…
The Climate Crisis
Temperature increase: 1.3 F
Source: IPCC, endorsed by ALL National Academies
of Science
Very tight relation between Temperature
and CO2 in the atmosphere
6
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Current p
ath =
“ram
p”
Historical emissions
0
30
60
1950 2000 2050 2100
The Projections
27
Current CO2:375 ppm
Historical:180-280 ppm
for ~million yrs
Clean Coal = Carbon capture and “geological” storage
CaptureCapture UndergroundUndergroundInjectionInjection
PipelinePipelineTransportTransport
CompressionCompression
• Will make coal electricity twice as expensive
Clean Coal
• Impacts of unintended leakage
– Health and safety of workers and general population
– Environmental impacts– Unwanted intrusion
into drinking water• Earthquakes
Tree kill at Mammoth Mountain, CA http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/prepare/factsheets/CO2/
Unfortunately, not clean enough
Nuclear
• Civilian uses and weapons uses completely separated in the U.S.• Enough fuel for > 30 yrs if ALL U.S. electricity is from nuclear plants• Enough fuel for thousands of yrs if fuel is reprocessed
• High(er) cost is entirely due to weak policy• There has never been an injury related to nuclear power plants
in the U.S.• Waste issue needs to be addressed before construction of any new
plants
Multi-faceted question: fuel reserves, economy, safety, proliferation, waste
PROS:
QUESTIONS:
Solar Energy
• It is possible to capture the sun’s energy for direct electricity generation OR for heat generation in a power plant
• Can provide all of the U.S. electricity needs with solar energy
(100 square miles in AZ or Nevada covered with 20% efficient solar
cells can do it: e.g., Turner, 1999, Science, 285, 687) • Currently, focus is on decreasing cost
Efficiency
Energy efficiency has to be the first component of any
national energy plan or response to climate change
Energy/cost savings can be HUGE with simple steps
Just a few examples
Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation)(kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1960196219641966196819701972197419761978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008
United States
California
Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $1975 2005 % change
US GDP/capita 16,241 31,442 94%Cal GSP/capita 18,760 33,536 79%
2005 Differences = 5,300kWh/yr = $165/capita
California: World’s 6th Largest Economy
data from the California Energy Commission
Total $700 Billion savings
Impact of Standards on The Efficiency of 3 Appliances
Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE,
in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org
75%
60%
25%20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Ind
ex (
1972
= 1
00)
Effective Dates of National Standards
=
Effective Dates of State Standards
=
Refrigerators
Central A/C
Gas Furnaces
SEER = 13
MANY Other Savings
LED lights, glazed low-E windows, cogeneration plants,
mileage standards, ………
“pay-back time” is typically ~1 yr for most of these
Compare to 11 years development time for drilling
Cool Color Cars
• Toyota experiment (surface temperature 18F cooler)
• Ford, BMW, and Fiat are also working on the technology
slide credit: Akbari, LBNL
Conclusions
Priority List:
1. Efficiency Standards
2. Car Batteries/PHEV Cars
3. Solar and Nuclear Energy to generate electricity
(including research funds for fusion)
4. Reduce Agriculture’s dependence on Fossil Fuels
Despite the agendas pushing for them, drilling, prime-crop ethanol, hydrogen fuel cells, and “clean” coal are unsupported ideas