Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Meeting the Challenges of Energy Demand
Karim Barbir SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management
GDF SUEZ Energy North America
November 22, 2010
Who is GDF SUEZ ?Overview
• 2009 Revenues: €79.9 billion; EBITDA: €14.0 billion; over 200,000 worldwide employees
• Electricity: World’s largest IPP• Natural Gas: #1 buyer and transporter in Europe• LNG: #1 importer in Europe and U.S.
North American Business
• Integrated energy company; 2,000 employees• Electricity: ~8,000 MW in U.S., Canada & Mexico • 23 biomass, wind and hydro-powered assets in
US and Canada• Carbon light generation: 21% renewable; 67% gas• LNG: #1 importer in U.S., supply 20% of New
England’s annual gas demand• Retail: #2 U.S. electricity retailer servicing
commercial & industrial customers• Mexico: #1 private gas transmission; gas
distribution to nearly 400k customers2
Drive towards coal retirements
Drive for efficiency
Q: Timing? form?
Economic Recovery
Renewables
Regulatory Environment and
Sustainability
Primary Energy Sources
Signs of recovery; gas and power demand recovering
Q: Catalyst for growth?
Higher capital costs
Subsidies
Q: Will incentives continue?
What/when to invest for
clean, affordable and
reliable energy?
Shale gas advancement
Q: Price impact?
Fuel substitute?
3
Challenges/Opportunities for North American Energy
4
Economic Recovery Underway… And New Power Generation Will Be
Needed
* Solar, wood, biomass, geothermalSource: EIA
New build considerations
• Sustainability
• Infrastructure needs
• Supply diversity
• Price competitiveness
Coal
Natural gas
Hydro
Oil products
Nuclear
31%
39%
6%
10%
10%
4%
Today’s Generation Mix (capacity)
Tomorrow
US Example
Wind; other renew-ables*
New Generation Build – A Cost Perspective
Levelized Cost USD per MWh
5Source: GDF SUEZ Energy North America Analysis
Carbon Light Carbon FreeCarbon Intense
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Combined Cycle Gas - $4/MMBtu
Combined Cycle Gas - $6/MMBtu
Combustion Turbine Gas -$6/MMBtu
Coal - SC Nuclear Wind Solar (PV)
Capital Cost Property Tax & Insurance Fixed O&M Fuel & Variable With $12/Ton CO2
Renewables- Not Where We Consume Energy
6Source: NREL, Environment Canada
Vancouver
Toronto
MontrealUnited StatesWind Speed Map
CanadaWind Speed Map
United StatesSolar Intensity
• Significant incremental transmission will be needed over the next 15 years to integrate renewable development into U.S. generation fleet,
• $50 billion to satisfy existing state-level RPS standards
• As much as $130 billion to meet a 20% national renewable portfolio standard
• Texas PUC, as an example, approved nearly $5 billion for 18,456 MW of transmission investment to support renewable investments
7
Shale Gas - N. America’s Answer to a Domestic, Low Cost Primary Energy
Source?
Supply: may be as much as 100 years of U.S. consumption by some estimates
New uses: gas-fired power generation to displace coal; petrochemicals return? residential and transportation switching?
Technology adoption: to Europe? Asia? Source: EIA 2010
In a World of Cheap Gas, There is an Expanded Role for Natural Gas Fired
Generation
8
A fuel source for the ‘Utility of the
Future’
Carbon Light!Acceptable generation tradeoffs
Competitive Advantages
kg CO2 per MWh
Coal 1.0Natural Gas 0.4
• Flexible generation backup for wind and solar
• Electric vehicles
• Rapid deployment vs. nuclear
• Attractive opex/ capex profile vs. wind and nuclear
• High efficiency, off-the-shelf technology
GDF Suez Energy North America- Meeting the Challenges Now
A diversified, sustainable portfolio profitable under a variety of economic scenarios
9
Longer-term Options
Expand renewables footprint where
economically sensible; improve carbon position
of fleet
Maintain carbon-light fleet anchored by natural gas-fired generation
• Nuclear as a long-term option- clean, base load generation
• Concentrated solar, rooftop solar
• Renewables with PPAs
• Canada, US, Mexico
• CCGT
• Hydro and pumped storage
• Renewables firm support
