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June 4, 2020 Revised METRO VANCOUVER BOARD BUDGET WORKSHOP (Joint special meeting of the Metro Vancouver Regional District, Greater Vancouver Sewerage & Drainage District, Greater Vancouver Water District and Metro Vancouver Housing Corporation) Friday, June 5, 2020 9:00 A.M. 28 th Floor Boardroom, 4730 Kingsway, Burnaby, British Columbia Purpose: Budget Workshop Membership and Votes R E V I S E D A G E N D A 1 1. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA 2. PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION 2.1 Budget Workshop Designated Speakers: Jerry Dobrovolny, Chief Administrative Officer/Commissioner 3. ADJOURNMENT OR CONCLUSION 1 Note: Recommendation is shown under each item, where applicable. All Directors vote unless otherwise noted. Meeting 1 of 1 Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

Meeting 1 of 1 METRO VANCOUVER BOARD BUDGET WORKSHO P · METRO VANCOUVER BOARD BUDGET WORKSHO P (Joint special . meeting of the Metro Vancouver Regional District, Greater Vancouver

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Page 1: Meeting 1 of 1 METRO VANCOUVER BOARD BUDGET WORKSHO P · METRO VANCOUVER BOARD BUDGET WORKSHO P (Joint special . meeting of the Metro Vancouver Regional District, Greater Vancouver

June 4, 2020

Revised

METRO VANCOUVER BOARD BUDGET WORKSHOP

(Joint special meeting of the Metro Vancouver Regional District, Greater Vancouver Sewerage & Drainage District, Greater Vancouver Water District and Metro Vancouver Housing Corporation)

Friday, June 5, 2020

9:00 A.M. 28th Floor Boardroom, 4730 Kingsway, Burnaby, British Columbia

Purpose: Budget Workshop

Membership and Votes

R E V I S E D A G E N D A1 1. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA

2. PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION

2.1 Budget Workshop Designated Speakers: Jerry Dobrovolny, Chief Administrative Officer/Commissioner

3. ADJOURNMENT OR CONCLUSION

1 Note: Recommendation is shown under each item, where applicable. All Directors vote unless otherwise noted.

Meeting 1 of 1

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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Board Budget Workshop2021 Financial Planning CycleFRIDAY, JUNE 5, 2020

38802469

Section 2.1

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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UNPRECEDENTED TIMES

Together We Make Our Region StrongMetro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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WORKSHOP OBJECTIVE

Seek direction for the preparation of the 2021-2025 Financial Plan

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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OUTLINE

• Process• Principles and plans

o Feedback and Discussion• Our starting point - current Five Year Outlook• COVID-19 implications and opportunities

o Feedback and Discussion• Toolbox

o Feedback and Discussion• Board Direction to Staff• Next steps

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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PROCESS

Board Budget Workshop

(Jun 5)

Committee Feedback

(Jul)

Budget Committee Reports

(Oct)

Board Budget Workshop (Oct 21)

Council of Councils(Oct 24)

Board Meeting (Oct 30)

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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Principles and Plans

6Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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METRO VANCOUVER PLANNING DRIVERS

Regional Growth

Environmental Sustainability

Financial Sustainability

System Stewardship

Regulatory & Legislative Environment

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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PLANS

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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PLANNING HORIZONS

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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REGIONAL GROWTH

The region’s increasing population will require core utility services and regional services to expand and optimize to

respond to new growth

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

Our region is dependent on healthy, functioning ecosystems and requires actions to reduce pollutants, including

greenhouse gases, to prevent waste and to conserve our natural ecosystems

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY

Financial sustainability requires that core utility and regional services are delivered with an adherence to sound fiscal

policies that balance the organization’s long-term financial health while maintaining affordability for regional ratepayers

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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SYSTEM STEWARDSHIP

Critical regional infrastructure must be sufficiently maintained or replaced to meet current and future service needs and to be resilient to impacts from seismic events, wildfires, power

failures, and natural disasters

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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REGULATORY AND LEGISLATIVE ENVIRONMENT

Core utility services and regional services will anticipate and meet regulatory requirements and respond to legislative

change

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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PRINCIPLES AND PLANS

Your Input

To what extent do you agree with the following statements:• The drivers continue to reflect Metro Vancouver’s core priorities • Projects should address multiple drivers• Certain drivers need to be emphasized

What do you see as the level of importance for each of the drivers?

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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Discussion

16Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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2020-2024 Financial Plan

17Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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5 YEAR OUTLOOK2020-2024 Operating Budget Overview (Approved November 1, 2019)

• Operations are in line with inflation and remains steady over the 5 years

• Increasing capital program drives contribution to capital and debt service escalation over the 5 years

-

500

1,000

1,500

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Mill

ions

Operating Budget

Operations Debt Service Contribution to Capital

$ Millions 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Operations $498.0 $516.6 $529.2 $547.1 $547.8

Debt Service $135.0 $175.0 $237.7 $294.9 $357.7

Contribution to Capital $257.1 $275.9 $300.7 $329.3 $367.1

Total $890.1 $967.5 $1,067.6 $1,171.3 $1,272.6 % Increase 8.7% 10.3% 9.7% 8.6%

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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Drivers for Capital Projects

Replace aging infrastructure

Reduce GHGs and improve resiliency to

climate change

Meet regulatory requirements

Create capacity to meet future

growth

Improve financial

sustainability Project Objectives

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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5 YEAR OUTLOOK2020-2024 Capital Budget Overview (Approved November 1, 2019)

($ in millions) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Water $397.5 $449.7 $496.5 $522.7 $540.8

Liquid Waste $883.4 $759.9 $529.5 $617.8 $634.1

Solid Waste $88.5 $81.6 $52.4 $18.8 $41.6

Housing* $25.3 $31.5 $19.1 $6.6 TBD

Regional Parks $19.9 $23.9 $29.4 $32.2 $37.3

Total Capital Expenditures $1,414.6 $1,346.6 $1,126.9 $1,198.2 $1,253.8

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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5 YEAR OUTLOOKCapital Program

• 2020: $1.41 Billion capital spend 90% committed to projects underway

• 2021: $1.35 Billion capital spend (projected) 80% already committed to projects underway

• 2022: $1.13 Billion capital spend (projected) 78% already committed to projects underway

• 2023: $1.19 Billion capital spend (projected) 71% already committed to projects underway

• 2024: $1.25 Billion capital spend (projected) 66% already committed to projects underway

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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5 YEAR OUTLOOKFinancials – Household Impact (Approved November 1, 2019)

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Water District $178 $186 $201 $218 $239

Liquid Waste $264 $290 $322 $352 $372Solid Waste $62 $65 $68 $70 $73Regional District $64 $69 $74 $79 $84Total Household Impact $568 $610 $665 $719 $768$ increase $42 $55 $54 $49% Change 7.7% 8.9% 8.2% 6.7%

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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5 YEAR OUTLOOK

Benchmarking of Utility Rates ($ CAD)

Liquid Waste(Avg household rate)

2020

Metro Vancouver $264

MV Regional Average(MV + Municipal Sewer Service Charge)

$632

Capital Regional District + City of Victoria $539

Waterloo $621

Seattle $1082

San Francisco $1030 Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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5 YEAR OUTLOOK

Benchmarking of Utility Rates

Water(Wholesale water rate)

2020

Metro Vancouver $0.7386/m3

Capital Regional District $0.6968/m3

Waterloo $1.0953/m3

Seattle $0.975/m3

San Francisco $2.704/m3

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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5 YEAR OUTLOOK

Benchmarking of Utility Rates ($ CAD)

Solid Waste(Cost per tonne)

2020

Metro Vancouver (average tipping fee) $121

Capital Regional District $110

Toronto $159

Seattle $230

San Francisco $280

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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OVERALL IMPACT ON THE REGION

1.7% of annual GDP in the

region

Over 25,000 jobs supported

100k+ tonnes of GHG reductions

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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Discussion

27Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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COVID-19Implications and Opportunities

28Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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COVID-19 IMPLICATIONS

Immediate Actions

• Held off on half of seasonal hiring, around 100 positions• Maintained critical parks and fire protection positions

• Deferral of all non-critical recruitment• Discussions with unions regarding workforce adjustment

agreements• Review of all projects in market procurement• Greater emphasis on continuous improvement to identify

efficiencies and savings

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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COVID-19 IMPLICATIONS

TransLink Scenarios

Scenario 1:Quick Recovery

Scenario 2:Lasting Impacts

Scenario 3:Hibernation

Scenario 4: Paradigm Shift

Physical distancing

Ends on Canada Day

Ends on Canada Day

Ends in 12 months

Ends in 12 months

Economic Recovery

12-month recession

48-month depression

12-month recession

48-month depression

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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Current Population Projections to 2050

• ~35,000 people per year (long standing historic trend)

• Projections are scenario based / no single number

• Inherent in the projections is a range of +/- 15%

• Many assumptions built in; (e.g. immigration rates, # of non-permanent residents, policy framework)

Assumptions

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

3.63M

3.38M

3.07M

2.67M

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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Population Components –

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000Immigration

Inter-Provincial

Natural Increase

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Births

Deaths

Intra-Provincial

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON POPULATION GROWTH: SCENARIO 1

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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SCENARIO 2: POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON POPULATION IMPACTS

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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COVID-19 IMPLICATIONS

Scenarios – Survey of Guesses

Recovery DurationBank of Canada 12 to 36 months

TransLink 12 to 48 months

GDP

Conference Board of Canada

2020 MV GDP Growth = (3.0%)2021 MV GDP Growth = 6.5%2022 MV GDP Growth = 2.5%

Central 1 Credit Union

2020 BC GDP growth = (7.3%)2021 BC GDP growth = 5.1%2022 BC GDP growth = 2.8%

Parliamentary Budget Office

2020 Canada Real GDP growth = (12.0%)Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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COVID-19 IMPLICATIONS

Impacts to Metro Vancouver

• Ability to pay: Residents Businesses Members

• Capital project delays • Potential cost escalations due to associated claims• Length of recovery for the regional economy

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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COVID-19 IMPLICATIONS

Challenges and Opportunities

Challenges:• Aging assets• Growing region• Scale of capital plan• Difficulty attracting foreign

investment• Economic stress • Climate change• Tremendous global uncertainty

Opportunities:• Strong financial position• Providing local employment• Restarting with carbon neutral

projects• Integrated response• Stimulus funding• Leading in economic recovery• Meeting multiple objectives

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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COVID-19 IMPLICATIONS

Your Input

• What do you see as the main challenges for Metro Vancouver as an organization?

• What do you see as the main opportunities for Metro Vancouver as an organization?

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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Discussion

39Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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Toolbox

40Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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TOOLBOX

Reduce Pay-as-you-go

Increase Debt Amortization

TermUse of

ReservesAdditional External Funding

Increase Contract Risk

ToleranceCapital Plan

Deferrals Demand Side Management

Continuous Improvement

Impacts the financial strength of the organization

Being actively pursuedIncreases the risk of the organization

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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TOOLBOX

Demand Side Management

Increase Contract Risk

Tolerance

Capital Plan Deferrals

Use of Reserves

Increase Debt

Amortization Term

Reduce Pay-as-you-go

Most immediate impact to Household ratesMetro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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TOOLBOX

Your Input

• Rate your support for the use of each of the tools on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being lowest and 5 being highest

Reduce Pay-as-you-go

Increase Debt Amortization

TermUse of Reserves

Increase Contract Risk Tolerance

Capital Plan Deferrals

Demand Side Management

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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Discussion

44Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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COVID-19 Opportunities and Challenges

Recovery Scenarios

Tools

Direction to staff for preparation of the

2021-2025 Financial Plan

Current 5 Year Financial Plan

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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BOARD DIRECTION TO STAFF

Proposed Approach

Short-term Relief for Households• Leverage supported tools to create a short-term action plan

(1-3 years)Maintain current goals and objectives

• Continue work on strategic and long-range plansRealize New Opportunities

• Partner on projects to increase affordable housing and reduce GHGs

• Help drive economic recovery• Other?

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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BOARD DIRECTION TO STAFF

Limits for Short-term Financial Planning

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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UNPRECEDENTED TIMES

I hope in the years to come we will be able to look back and take pride in how we responded to this challenge

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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UNPRECEDENTED TIMES

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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BOARD DIRECTION TO STAFF

Feedback on Proposed Approach

Short-term Relief for Households• Leverage supported tools to create a short-term action plan

(1-3 years)Maintain current goals and objectives

• Continue work on strategic and long-range plansRealize New Opportunities

• Partner on projects to increase affordable housing and reduce GHGs

• Help drive economic recovery• Other?

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop

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Thank You

Metro Vancouver Board Budget Workshop