-
Slide 1
Medium-Term Energy Development*
March 2014
Directorate of Energy, Telecommunications and Informatics
Ministry of National Development Planning/National Development
Planning Agency
* A draft for the 3rd RPJMN
-
Slide 2
introduction
-
Slide 3
Prolog
Indonesia will have a new elected President in October 2014
RPJMN 2015-2019 (National Medium-Term Development Plan) should
be formulated by new President
the elaboration of the Vision, Mission, and Program of the
(elected) President.
will be elaborated into the Annual Government Working Plan
implementation of the RPJPN (3rd phase of the RPJPN)
RPJPN: National Long-Term Development Plan Long term strategy as
guidance for mid-term national development
plan.
A 20 year plan (2005-2025)
-
Slide 4
Development Planning System
RKP
RPJM
Nasional
RPJP National
Renstra
KL
Renja -
KL
RAPBN RKA-KL
APBN Rincian
APBN
Guidance
Elaborated
Guidance
* At Central Government Level
Guidance
20 year period
Input
Guidance
Guidance
5 year period
Annually Reference
Harmonized
National Long-term Development Plan
National Mid-term Development Plan
Government Annual Working Plan
Annual Government Budget Plan
Annual Government Budget
Ministry Annual Working Plan
Annual Ministry Working Budget Plan
Annual Government Budget Detail
Ministry Strategic Plan (Mid-term)
-
Slide 5
direction
-
Slide 6
Directions for Mid-Term Plan Formulation
RPJPN (Long-Term Plan)
Achieving income per capita equivalent to middle income country
(MIC) in 2025
Unemployment level below 5% Poverty level below 5%
Goal
Staging Emphasizing attainment of economic
competitiveness based on natural resources, human resources, and
science and technology.
Focusing on: Electricity supply reliable and efficient Starting
nuclear for electricity utilization*
MP3EI*
* Master Plan on Acceleration and Expansion of Economic
Development
Basic infrastructure
must be fulfilled 3
rd RPJMN
2010
PDB: USD 700 Billion
income/capita: USD 3,000
2025
PDB: USD 4.0 4.5 Trillion
income/capita: USD 14,250 15,500
2045
PDB: USD 15.0 17.5 Trillion
Income/capita:
USD 44,500 49,000
Malaysia USD 16,794
Thailand USD 9.503
Philippines USD 4,410
Vietnam USD 3,788
Sumber: IMF Data, 2012; in US Dollars
-
Slide 7
Necessary Condition
$-
$2,000.00
$4,000.00
$6,000.00
$8,000.00
$10,000.00
$12,000.00
$14,000.00
$16,000.00
10%
11%
12%
Projected GDP Growth per Capitasource: BPS Data, 2012, Bappenas
projection
2012: USD 3,563
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
(15.00)
(10.00)
(5.00)
-
5.00
10.00
Economic growth vs infrastructure investment in Indonesia
(1997-2013)
Growth
Total InfrastructureInvestment Share ofGDP, %
Investment in infrastructure has direct impacts to economic
growth. To achieve MIC status, Indonesia needs 12% nominal economic
growth.
* Source: Background Study Presentation
-
Slide 8
current condition
-
Slide 9
Indonesia
Country Indonesia Thailand Philippines Malaysia Japan
Population (million) 242.33 69.52 94.85 28.86 127.83
GDP (billion USD; 2005) 402.19 210.25 136.26 187.28 4621.97
GDP PPP (billion USD; 2005) 992.1 530.78 345.03 409.05
3932.2
GDP PPP/pop (USD; 2005/cap) 4,094.00 7,634.93 3,637.64 14,173.60
30,761.17
Energy Prod. (MTOE) 394.57 68.74 23.89 84.27 51.67
Net Import (MTOE) -184.8 54.22 18.04 -4.05 421.1
TPES (MTOE) 209.01 119.15 40.45 75.91 461.47
TPES/Pop (TOE/capita) 0.86 1.71 0.43 2.63 3.61
TPES/GDP (TOE/000 USD;2005) 0.52 0.57 0.3 0.41 0.1
Elec. Cons (TWh) 165.71 154.19 61.5 122.12 1003.09
Elec. Cons/Pop (kWh/cap) 0.21 0.22 0.12 0.19 0.12
CO2 Emission (MT) 425.88 243.19 77.12 193.96 1186.04
Selected Indicators for 2011,Source: IEA, Key World Energy
Statistics
-
Slide 10
Strategic Issues
1. Exclusive energy development
Access to electricity services is limited
Electrification ratio: 80% Capacity/production: 44 GW/180
thousand GWh
Access to energy for cooking is limited
City gas only covers 150.000 HH LPG supplies 44 million HH
Access to Modern Energy Service in ASEAN, 2011source: IEA, ASEAN
Energy Outlook
-
Slide 11
Pricing policy is not sustainable Subsidy (electricity and fuel
oil) is not only
for the poor but also for the rich
Impede development of new and renewable energy and
Overburden
government spending
Highly rely on fuel oil Lack of alternative fuels (natural gas,
biofuel)
for transportation
Significant imports of crude oil and fuel oil Consumption 78,9
million KL (import:
41,2 million KL or 52%); Refinery
capacity:1.150 thousand BPD.
Lack of national energy reserves
Export commodity vs value added Unbalanced energy mix
2. Energy security and resilience
Incremental energy demand in Indonesia, 2011-2035Source: IEA,
ASEAN Energy Outlook
Fossil Fuel Net Trade by CountrySource: IEA, ASEAN Energy
Outlook
-
Slide 12
Challenges
Year 2013 Ina Mal
ay
Thai Viet Philip
.
Infras 82 25 61 110 98
Road 78 23 42 102 87
Railway 44 18 72 58 89
Port 89 24 56 98 116
Air
Transport
68 20 34 92 113
Electricity 89 37 58 95 93
Cellular 62 27 49 21 81
Fixed-line 82 79 96 88 109
Middle income country trap Competitiveness Index*
*World Economic Forum Demografic bonus
Geografi archipelagic (resources and demand mismatch)
Environment carrying capacity
Domestic investment capacity
Technology capability
-
Slide 13
International Benchmark
99.373.7 89.7
97.394 100 97
32
65
85
0
20
40
60
80
100
Electrification Ratio (%) Urban (%) Rural (%)
Electrification Ratio (%), 2012
Low Electrification Ratio Unable to support the countrys
growth
0
0.1
0.2
0.3Indonesia
China
MalaysiaThailand
Japan
Energy Efficiency (KOE/$2005 PPP)Smaller means more
efficient
Higher energy efficiency which shows
lack of energy conservation and
unbalanced energy mix (dominated by
fossil fuel).
0.096
0.062
0.120.11
0.090.0920.07
0.110.1
0.081
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Vietnam
Tariff Comparison
Residential Tariff (US$/kWh) Industrial Tariff (US$/kWh)
* Source: Bappenas Background Study Presentation
-
Slide 14
objectives and policies
-
Slide 15
Objectives 2015-2019
* Modern energy access is defined as a household having relaible
and affordable
access to clean cooking facilities and electricity (incl.
adequate level of consumption)
1. Achieving sufficient economic growth
2. Lower CO2 emission, compared to BAU
Inclusive basic energy modern service Enhanced energy security
and resilience
1. Electricity access : ER nearly 100%
1. PP capacity ~ on/off-grids
2. Utilizing new and renewableenergy
2. Energy access for HH
1. Citi Gas Development
2. LPG service expansion
3. Usage of local energy (biogas)
1. Enhancing final energy supply
1. Increasing Oil refinery capacity
2. Developing Nat. gas transmission lines
3. Setting up national energy reserves
2. Alternative fuel for transportation:
1. Providing nat. gas fuel pumps
2. Developing biofuel
3. Increasing energy efficiency
1. Audit energy and energy conservation
4. Formulated pricing policy
-
Slide 16
Main Policies
Energy diversification
Prioritizing local new and renewable energy
Enhancing oil and gas infrastructure
Promoting energy conservation
Optimizing pricing policy
-
Slide 17
investments requirements and funding
-
Slide 18
Investment Requirement 2015-2019
SectorEstimated
(in Trillion IDR)
Roads 851
Rail 222
Urban Transport 115
Sea Transport 424
Ferry 80
Air Transport 165
Electricity 1,080
Energy 420
Water Resources 845
Clean Water and Waste 666
Housing 384
ICT 200
Total 5.452
* Source: Bappenas Background Study Presentation
* Numbers not final
Implementation needs: (1)
extra commitment; (2) strong
leadership; and (3) a holistic
bureaucratic reform
-
Slide 19
Source of Fund
Government Spending
Government Spending
Financing GapFinancing Gap
SoE ~ 6%SoE ~ 6%
PPP ~ 20%PPP ~ 20%
Off Balance Sheet ~ 2%Off Balance Sheet ~ 2%
IDR 350T
IDR 1,090T
IDR 2,741T
1. The figure shows CAPEX only and rehabilitation, not include
O&M 2. Not final
Alternative FinancingAlternative Financing
Estimated requirements
IDR. 5,452 T
Estimated requirements
IDR. 5,452 T
Gap ~ 50%Gap ~ 50%
IDR 93T
~ 22%~ 22% IDR 1,178T
* Source: Bappenas Background Study Presentation
-
Slide 20
*)Regional direct loan still not a valid law and/or approach
yet.
Funding Method Description
Government Funding
Central Government
APBN Annual central budget allocated for infrastructure.
ODA Loan Foreign currency based loan from donor.
Country Bond Bond issuance based on country credit rating.
Asset Liquidation Fund generated from asset sales,
securitization, IPO of BUMN.
Regional Government
APBD Annual regional budget allocated for infrastructure.
Municipal Bond Bond issuance based on municipal credit
rating.
Regional Direct Loan Direct lending to regional government.
SOE Funding
Cash pool+ operating CF Funded by SOEs liquid asset or operating
cashflow
Company Bond Bond issuance based on SOE credit rating.
SOE Direct Loan Donors sub-sovereign loan. Commercial bank
loan.
PPP FundingPrivate Fund with Govtsupport
Investors equity with project finance + VGF and guarantee
Off-BS Funding
Availability Payment Investors equity with project finance,
based on multi-year annuity payment contract from central/regional
government
SOE Direct Loan with sovereign guarantee
Donor or commercial bank loan based on sovereign guarantee
Strategic Funding
Vertical, Horizontal Split Hybrid of above methods by splitting
assets
Cross-sector package Hybrid of above methods by packaging linked
projects
Others Infrastructure fund/bond, Project bond and other
financial pack
Social-related Infrastructure
EconomicInfrastructure
Suita
bili
ty o
f F
undin
g to Infr
astr
uctu
re
* Source: Bappenas Background Study Presentation
-
Slide 21
Strategic Projects*
Fast Track Programs (Phase 1&2), IPP and PPP
Developing geothermal power plants
City gas projects: 80 thousand customers
Oil refinery 1 units (300 thousand BPD)
Developing national energy reserves
Floating storage refueling unit: 2 units, 250 BCF
Gas transmission lines: 680 km, 200 BCF
Natural gas pumps: 55 units
Pilot project for nuclear power plant: 2 units
* proposed
-
Slide 22
THANKS !Direktorat Energi, Telekomunikasi, dan Informatika
Lantai 4, Gedung Utama, BAPPENAS
Jl. Taman Suropati No.2, Menteng, Jakarta 10310
Tel/Fax: (021) 391 2422
[email protected]
when you talk, youre repeating what you already know, but if you
listen, you
may learn something new
