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Media Futures: A View from the United States
Eli Noam Professor of Finance and Economics
Garrett Professor of Public Policy and Business Responsibility
Director, Columbia Institute for Tele-Information
Columbia Business School
Dynamics of the Media and Content Industries
European Forum for Science and Industry Brussels
25 October 2012
1
Speed (Kbps) Trends
6
13 Media Industries Investigated
• 1. Content Media
– 1.1 Print Media
• Newspapers
• Magazines
• Books
--1.2 Audiovisual Media
• Radio
• Broadcast TV
• Video Channels
• Film
• 2. Platform Media • Wireline Telecom
• Wireless Telecom
• Multichannel Platforms
• Cable and Satellite TV
• 3. Internet Media • ISPs (also in Platform
Media)
• Search Engines (also in
Content Media)
• Online News Media (also
in Content Media)
9
All Media - Concentration by Region
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2004/05 2008/09
Chart 4
Content Media - Concentration by Region
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500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2004/05 2008/09
Chart 5
Platform Media - Concentration by Region
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3000
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5000
6000
7000
2004/05 2008/09
Chart 6
Content Media - National Media Power Index by Region
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1500
2000
2500
3000
2004/05 2008/09
Chart 11
News Media - Average Concentration by Region (weighted by usage as news sources)
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3500
World EU North America Asia-Pacific Latin America BRICS Middle East
2004/05 2008/09
Chart 18
43
Concentration Trends (EU)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
~2000 ~2004 ~2008
Content Media Platform Media
Note: ~2000 number do not reflect data for all 30 countries, since data is not available for some countries for early years
Chart 42
Media Voices by Region
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2004/05 2008/09
Chart 14
Internet Media Concentration by Region
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500
1000
1500
2000
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3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2004/05 2008/09
Chart 35
80
Concentration of Print Newspaper vs. Online News Media
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Newspaper Online News
Chart 40
http://media-2.web.britannica.com/eb-media/31/71331-004-CDC77097.jpg
1st Generation Television:
Broadcasting
101
2nd Gen TV: Analog
Multichannel TV • Cable TV
• DBS/DTH
105
3rd Generation of TV
Digital TV • Satellite
• Cable
• DTV
• HDTV
• IPTV
• Broadcast to mobile
106
P(D): Price of Distribution per Mbit/capita
(Individualized Channels)
108
Price of Media Content per Gbit/cap of
information P(B)
109 109
http://www.classic-cable.com/howworks.html
Fat Pipes Shared
111
www.corbis.com
Skinny Pipes, Individualized
113
And now, the 4th Gen
TV
TV over Broadband
Internet
117
Widening-- More TV Options
10
Are You Ready?
123
126
BBC Online TV
Patalong, Frank (2007). BBC to Broadcast via Youtube. Retrieved from:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,469586,00.html 126
http://www.jeffooi.com/2007Q3/hulu.gif
127 127
Netflix Online
http://www.netflix.com/HowItWorks 130
C. Narrowcasters:
Long Tail Content
132 132
• In India, a website called cricvid.com streams live cricket matches.
134
D. UGC: User
Generated Content
http://cafe.naver.com/yoniwoongi.cafe?iframe_url=/ArticleRead.nhn%3Farticleid=6969
135 135
•2. Deepening:
–Greater “Richness” of content
139
• I have a whole statistical analysis and model for this.
• To simplify considerably, it shows that people’s willingness to pay per media second is relatively constant. So if you reduce the bit distribution cost by 7% a year, media becomes richer by about the same, about 7% a year, in terms of bits per second.
142
Bit Richness of Different Media per
Secon’
143 143
“Richer” Next Generation TV • 4K and 8K resolution
• 2-way interactivity
• Multi-lateral interactivity
• Personalization
• Multi-platform
• Asynchronous
• 3-D
• Immersion 144
Flat Screens Big Screens Greater
Requirement for Sharpness of Pix
145 145
146
3D-TV
149
Visual Technology Element: Virtual
Reality
150 150
151
Virtual Reality (cont.)
152
Virtual Reality (cont.)
Google’s “Project Glass” 2012
153
Virtual Reality (cont.)
Visual Technology Element:
Interactive Games
155 155
Visual Technology Element:
Avatars and Virtual Worlds
157 157
• In Gladiator, Russell Crowe’s face was digitally
superimposed on others’ bodies.
http://ffmedia.ign.com/filmforce/image/article/569/569303/gladiator_crowe_
tiger_1101791020-000.jpg
160 160
Marshall McLuhan
163
Participatory Experience
“Pirates of the Caribbean 2”
165 http://eur.i1.yimg.com/eur.yimg.com/xp/yahoo_manual/20060615/13/1898928065.jpg
Participatory Experience in “300”
166 http://www.collider.com/uploads/imageGallery/Three_Hundred_300/300_movie_image_s.jpg
Participatory Sports
167
Content Model: Adult Applications
168
D. Content Model: Interactive and
Immersive Marketing
Test Drive Car
169
F. Content Model: Travelogue
171
G. Content Model: News. (“You are
There”)
173
Education and Training
Simulation
174
“Content Engineering”
• Branching
• Semantic segmentation
• Content processing and semantic analysis
• Personalization tools
• Participation tools
• Authoring tools
179
What are the
Implications for
Media Companies?
194
• In 1977 the credits for the original
Star Wars listed 143 technicians;
in 2003 the CG sequel, Attack of
the Clones, listed 572 technicians.
Epstein, Edward Jay, “The Big Picture, The New Logic of Money and Power in
Hollywood,” New York: E.J.E. Publications, Ltd., Inc., 2005
http://www.moviebadgirls.com/capimage/
Attack_Of_The_Clones_06.JPG
210 210
Issue:
Interoperability
230
Policy Issue: Inclusion of the Poor
245 245
Policy Issue: Inclusion of the
Digitally Challenged
http://www.copyblogger.com/images/grandma.jpg 246
(http://www.att.com)
Policy Issue: Market Power and What it Does to Entry
247
Policy Issue:
Protection of
Traditional
Morality
(http://ctc.sexzine.net/cgi-bin/ctc/ctc.cgi?63914183::46689417062573::http://www.come.to/sexzine)
(http://www.doomnation.com/)
(http://members.xoom.com/Interleave/frame1.htm)
248
Policy Issue: Child Protection
Restrictions
http://blog.wired.com/photos/uncategorized/2007/06/20/et_computer_kid_happy_surprised2.jpg
249
Policy Issue: Consumer
Protection
Source: http://www.tvbuys.org/photos/ShamWow%203.jpg 250
Policy Issue: Privacy Protection
(http://channel6000.com/news/stories/news-981004-202141.html)
251
Policy Problem: Globalization, and
Promotion of National Culture
252 252
Overall media concentration for
EU-European countries show high
concentrations (above 1,800) in
Content Media for Ireland, Italy,
Netherlands, Portugal, France,
Spain, and UK. This suggests that
the country size is not
determinative of concentration.
In Europe, average media
concentration relative to North
America is significantly higher
overall (3,273 vs. 1,833), in Content
Media (1,940 vs. 1,274), and in
Platform Media (3,726 vs. 2,130).
Average Content Media concentration
in Europe is also somewhat higher
than in Asia-Pacific.
In Content Media, EU countries
with a high National Media
Power Index are Ireland, France,
Italy, and Netherlands. It is low
in Belgium, Germany, Poland,
and Switzerland. Overall, it is
low for the UK.
The comparison of regions shows
the EU region to be at the level of
world average, but well above
North America. Furthermore, the
EU’s media power index has been
rising for content, though more
slowly than in North America and
Asia-Pacific.
There is a significantly higher number (40% higher) of media “voices” in North America than in Europe. But when we take a country’s population size into account and look at “net voices per capita,” the European average is over twice as high as the North American and just about any region.
This is a positive finding but can be
an explained by the large number
of small but wealthy European
countries with active media relative
to size. As the national EU media
markets increasingly merge into a
single market, the number of voices
per capita is likely to decline,
ceteris paribus.
For news media (as
distinguished from
entertainment and conduit
platforms), the EU region
shows a higher concentration –
by several measures-- than
North America or Asia-Pacific.
High concentration countries are
Ireland, Portugal, Italy, France, and
Finland. Low index countries are
Belgium and Spain. Here, too, there
is no correlation of country size,
whether by geography, population,
or GDP.
In EU countries the share of foreign
ownership (including by other EU
countries) is at much higher than in
North America or Asia Pacific. For
Europe it is particularly high in
Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and the
Netherlands.
Do the new internet media make a
difference to media concentration,
in the way many people hope?
These are the industries that were
believed to be wide open and
competitive, and would open up the
rest of media. But they, too, exhibit
strong concentration trends,
stronger than traditional media.
For Internet Media, concentration
is higher in Europe than in North
America (where it is rising).
When it comes to ISPs only,
European concentration is higher
than that of North America or
Asia-Pacific
For Online News Media,
concentration in Europe is higher
than North America and declining
more slowly. The concentration of
online news is often lower than of
print newspapers. But in other
countries it is actually higher.
This is the case in the US,
Germany, Japan, Spain,
China, and Brazil. One
reason is that while some
media, such as newspapers,
often serve local markets,
online news tends to be
national.
Globally and in Europe,
content media are much
lower in concentration than
distribution media.
Concentration in platform
media is very high. In
Europe, the number is 3726,
but declining.
Concentration is lower for
content media, but increasing.
Worldwide, it is about 2,000. In
Europe it is also about 2,000,
and rising over the decade.
Thus, the Content Media
sector’s concentration trend is
gradually converging with that
of Platform Media.
Traditional (“legacy” media
such as Book Publishing,
Magazines, Film, Newspapers,
and Radio are among the lowest
in concentration globally. In
contrast, the capital-intensive
media industries in telecom,
online, and internet are more
concentrated.
This convergence tendency
suggests that the content media
sector, from a relatively lower
level of concentration, will
move to a higher level that is
more similar to that of the more
capital-intensive platform sector.
The trend of market equilibria of
media structure will therefore favor
higher concentration. Current or
foreseeable technology and
entrepreneurship will not overcome
that problem in a long-term sustained
way. They cannot, by themselves, be
relied on by policy makers to resolve
media concentration problems.
And this is a particular issue
for EU Europe, where media
concentrations are often
higher than they are
observed for the comparable
regions of North America
and Asia-Pacific.
2nd Gen TV:
Multichannel TV
• Cable TV
• DBS
• Home Video
298
Eli M. Noam, Production
301
Content Quality Level
Audie
nce
X Y Z
301
302
Impact of
Medium on
Content
305
309
310
311
Novels
312
313
Science Fiction: 1902: A Trip To The Moon
(http://www.moma.org/collection/filmvideo/pages/melies.trip.html) 316
Outdoor Drama
1st Western: 1903: “ The
Great Train Robbery ”
(http://memory.loc.gov)
317
Voyeur content
“The Gay Shoe Clerk”: 1905
http://www.last-bid.com/cat-20095/Antiques/Science_Medicine/Other/id-
3710651581/THE_VINTAGE_MOTION_PICTURES_CD_Ca.1897_1903/
318
Slapstick Action on Silent Film
320
Sound leads to sophisticated
dialogue
http://www.carygrant.net/fotogallery/philadelphiastory/tps6.jpg 322
http://www.johnmariani.com/archive/2007/070513/grapes%20of%20wrath.jpg 323
Eli M. Noam, E-Publishing
Next, Television emerged and
enabled the individualization of
black-and-white, low resolution
films
(http://www.sneezes.freeserve.co.uk/teletext/)
324
Eli M. Noam, Film
Hollywood Content Strategy vs. TV: Themes of Sex & Violence
326
Technology Strategy: Big Screen
Cinemascope 327
Eli M. Noam, Film
Content Strategy: Big Budget Spectacles
(http://www.lostcitydemille.com/) 328
Eli M. Noam, Film http://ee.wustl.edu/~soatto/images/3d-glasses.gif
Technology Strategy: Special Effects
329
“Die Hard”
http://z.about.com/d/movies/1/0/F/7/P/livefreeordiehardpic6.jpg 335
“Mission Impossible 3”
http://www.ilmfan.com/articles/2006/todd_vaziri_mission_impossible_3/images/miss
ion_impossible_3.04.jpg 336
Jules & Jim
338 338
400 Blows
339 339
Upgraded Computer
Animation
342 342
• In Gladiator, Russell Crowe’s face was
digitally superimposed on other bodies
http://ffmedia.ign.com/filmforce/image/article/569/569303/gladiator_crowe_tiger_1101791020-000.jpg
343 343
Simone
http://www.spcgi.com/spboard/id/movie/screen_shot/simon.jpg
346 346
Visual Technology Element: 3-D
349 349
3-D
350
Visual Technology Element: Virtual
Reality
351 351
352
353
Google “Project Glass”
2012
354
http://www.duke.edu/~ppj2/cyberpunk_hacker_by_mercikos.jpg 356
Touch TV • A device allows viewer to
feel the action
• “Pressing your hand over a circle in the centre of the controller will allow a person to feel the ball as it is kicked in a football match.”
• Similarly, built-in vibrations in seat
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/2916485.stm 357
Visual Technology
Element:
Individualization
and Interactivity
359
Visual Technology Element:
Interactive Games
360 360
361
362
363
364
Visual Technology Element:
Avatars and Virtual Worlds
365 365
These elements will
Create Entertainment of
Total Immersion
•User immersion
•User participation
•Some user control 367 367
“Pirates of the Caribbean 2”
http://eur.i1.yimg.com/eur.yimg.com/xp/yahoo_manual/20060615/13/1898928065.jpg 369 369
“I Am Legend”
http://www.entertainmentwallpaper.com/images/desktops/movie/i_am_legend07.jpg 370 370
“300”
http://www.collider.com/uploads/imageGallery/Three_Hundred_300/300_movie_image_s.jpg 371 371
“Lord of the Rings”
http://www.myfreewallpapers.net/fantasy/pages/lord-of-the-rings-pillars-of-the-
kings.shtml
372 372
B. Sports
Immersion/Simulation
373
Sports Immersion
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/fig/2840060405003.png 374
377 377
C. Content Model: Adult Applications
378
D. Content Model: Marketing
Test Drive Car
379
381
382
F. Content Model: Travelogue
384
G. Content Model: News. (“You are
There”)
385
H. Content Model: Education and Training
Simulation
386
I. Content Model: Social Network
Community Immersive Sharing
387
Question #4:
Problems
388
1. The Problem
of Globalization
389
Globalization of Ultra-Content is
Unavoidable
390 390
3 Drivers for Globalization of Next-Gen Content
1. The price of international transmission is dropping rapidly.
2. Domestic Internet penetrations are increasing rapidly
3. E-content has economies of scale.
391
396
Fear of U.S. as content Hub
396
“Deepening”
of Video
Media 425 425
Richness
427 427
1. Better Quality
of Picture
430
SD
http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:FRVKCdK0761hBM:http:
//www.djkworld.co.uk/kameo.jpg
HD/DVD
433
•Quality
differences
of DVD,
HDTV, and
celluloid
434 http://people.freenet.de/FoLLgoTT/gladiator_ver
gleich.png 434
Comparison of Resolution
435
4K Blu-Ray HD TV DVD
Uncompressed Speed Requirements
for 3-Users Household (in Gbps)
HDTV 10
4K-TV 133 (NHK 530)
439
What Is the Trend
of Media
Deepening?
441 441
Price of Distribution per MB (Individualized Channels)
446
xxx
446
Price of Media Information per Gbyte
448 448
Marshall McLuhan
452 452
