Media Development

Evolution of the Mass Media Industries

Media Adoption

Technology Adoption

Diffusion of Innovations

Media Lifecycle

Innovation

Penetration

Peak

Decline

Adaptation

Media Lifecycle

Innovation

Penetration

Peak

Decline

Adaptation

Medium Penetration

Innovation

Penetration

Peak

Decline

AdaptationSupervening Social Necessity

Medium Peak

Innovation

Penetration

Peak

Decline

Adaptation

Observation, Trial, Price

Medium Decline

Innovation

Penetration

Peak

Decline

Adaptation

New Media, Changing Needs

Medium Adaptation

Innovation

Penetration

Peak

Decline

Adaptation

Complement, Re-Focus

Medium Innovation

Innovation

Penetration

Peak

Decline

Adaptation

New Media Eat Old Media

Newspapers

• Innovation– 1500s, colonial U.S.,

• Penetration– cheap paper, rotary press, 1870s

• Peak– 1920, advertising, cheap news

• Decline– 1930s, radio, magazines, speed & richness

• Adaptation– localized, consolidated, integrated

Innovation

Penetration

Peak

Decline

Adaptation

Film

• Innovation– 1890s, alternative to live entertainment

• Penetration– early 1900s, star system, small theatres

• Peak– 1930s-’40s, talkies, vertical integration, color

• Decline– 1950s, TV, studio divestment, suburbanization

• Adaptation– TV films, exports, blockbuster

Innovation

Penetration

Peak

Decline

Adaptation

Radio

• Innovation– 1900s, Marconi, ship-to-shore

• Penetration– 1920s, commercial broadcasting, 500 stations

• Peak– 1940s, WWII, immediacy, music & culture

• Decline– 1950s, TV, hi-fi, Cold War expansion

• Adaptation– car radio, specialization, local, automated

Innovation

Penetration

Peak

Decline

Adaptation

Television• Innovation

– 1930s, 1940s VHF

• Penetration– 1950s, adaptation of NTSC, commercial broadcasting

• Peak– 1960s, color, 1980=99.5%, “reality,” pop culture

• Decline– late 1990s? cable, Internet, video games, distrust & fatigue

• Adaptation– sports & spectacle, integrated media

Innovation

Penetration

Peak

Decline

Adaptation

Internet

• Innovation– late 1960s, ARPANet, DOD, accessible, sharing,

• Penetration– early 1990s, email, WWW, commercial infrastructure

• Peak– 2010?, e-commerce, global communication, new social

structures

• Decline– ???

• Adaptation

Innovation

Penetration

Peak

Decline

Adaptation