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MEDIA AND PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT
Tom Black
© 2014 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
2© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Despite billions in aid, the poorest people around the world are not much better off than they were 20 years ago.
PUBLIC ATTITUDES ARE NEGATIVE
Base: US, UK, France, Germany Gen Pop (all adults) sample. Sample size 1,000 + in each country. Online. Fieldwork January 7 th-13th 2014
Poor countries tend to stay poor.
Most of the countries that were poor 30 years ago are still poor today.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
US
UK
France
Germany
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 3
CHANGING THESE OPINIONS IS HARDProportion that agree ‘Foreign aid is a big waste’
No statistically significant change in any audience group over the course of the surveyTop 2 shown (Strongly agree + Somewhat agree)
Pre Mid Post
47
44 4340 35 37
4647 48
2627 29
US UK
FR DE
Pre Mid Post
42 39 42
30 29 29
42
4747
22 20 24
US UK
FR DE
Pre Mid Post
67
616266
606160
62
60
4947
45
US UK
FR DE
Q#. QBL4 /QPS6 / QPST6. Please indicate the extent to which you agree with the idea that foreign aid is a big waste.
Pros SkepticsSwings
Indicates a statistically significant change from pre to post at the 90% confidence interval
Questions :
• How can different media help us achieve this?
• How can we measure the contribution of media?
• How should that change what we do?
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 4
WE WANT MORE PEOPLE TO CARE MORE DEEPLY ABOUT PEOPLE LIVING IN THE WORLD’S POOREST PLACES
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 5
THE ‘THEORY OF CHANGE’ IS NOT LINEAR
Awareness
Knowledge
Understanding
Perception
Behaviour
• Individuals’ journeys are messy, reversible, and complex.
• Media can play a role – but there are other (more) relevant factors (opportunity, ability, motivation)
This is almost useless (and blindingly obvious) in this form, except maybe for audience targeting.
Many important questions are left unanswered here:
• CAUSALITY
• Reach
• Attention
• Persuasive effect
• Declared behaviour
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 6
DIFFERENT MEDIA CORRELATE WITH DIFFERENT ATTITUDES
NPR NBC MSNBC Fox News CNN0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
24%22% 23%
16%
13%
Very concerned Fairly concerned No strong feelings
Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don't know
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 7
LONGITUDINAL TRACKING WITH BIG SAMPLES
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3
Simple Sizes (Adults)
8,412
6,529
82%retention
New toWave 3
Wave 2 toWave 3
retention
Wave 1 toWave 3
retention
8,000• 4 countries
• 10 waves over 5 years
• Representative online sample, segmented
• Online methodology, with a panel/
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 8
INTERDEPENDENT SURVEYS
Large-scale Tracking Projects
*Grant A
*Grant B
• Identical questions
• Similar methodology
• Significant audience data (demographics) for sampling
• Varying degrees of sophistication
• Integration with non-survey tracking
• Trackers provide the baselines, grants help prove hypotheses.
• Both generate new things to test.
© Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation | 9
• It’s actually very difficult to change someone’s mind.
• Knowledge matters, but it’s not everything.
• Neutrality (editorial independence) matters.
• Engagement takes many forms, and different forms have different effects.
• Humour is pretty effective.
The relative importance of each of these factors is very hard to define and specify.
That’s next…
SOME THINGS THAT WE’RE LEARNING