Measuring social and economic impacts of water reform under the Australian Government’s Basin Plan

Dr Neville Crossman

Director, Social and Economic Integration

30 May 2019

Overview

• Briefly explain the Basin Plan and its Adaptive Management framework

• Provide an overview of the social and economic work for evaluating Basin Plan implementation

• Present the key questions for analysis, including challenge of measuring and attribution

• Summarise data and collaborations

Key facts

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Why water management is needed

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Over use of water has led to a decline in the health of the Basin

A healthy basin supports economies, society and human well-being

The Basin Plan aims to restore river health and support industry and people

• Key objectives:• To optimise social, economic and environmental outcomes

arising from the use of Basin water resources in the national interest

• To improve water security for all users of Basin resources

• To meet international obligations

• Every 5 years the MDBA must report on:• Whether the Basin Plan is meeting its objectives

• Social and economic outcomes of Basin Plan implementation

The Basin Plan

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• Water limits for consumption

• Infrastructure

• Water for the environment

• Maintaining water quality

• Water allocations and trade

• Planning, monitoring/measuring, evaluation

How water is managed

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• ‘Learning as you go’

• Trialling techniques, monitoring, measuring, making changes

• Adaptive management delivers best outcomes

• Maintains or improves social license

Adaptive management

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2020 Evaluation Reporting Structure – Themes

• MDBA Community Profiles work (and supporting technical documents) produced for the Northern Basin Review and the Basin Plan 2017 Evaluation.

• University of Adelaide research into irrigator behaviour and response to water recovery and water markets.

• University of Canberra Regional Well-being Survey findings.

• Ernst and Young assessment of social and economic neutrality potential from efficiency measures investments in Victoria.

• Marsden Jacob Associates social and economic impact assessment of water recovery in the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area (MIA).

• Cultural flows and Aboriginal water values in Northern Basin.

Examples of recent socio-economic analysis

• All previous work has:

• Strengths

• Weaknesses

• Caveats and assumptions

• Considers a specific question(s)

• Spatial, temporal and contextual limitations

• MDBA is very aware of these

Recent socio-economic analysis

MDBA’s socio-economic themes for evaluation

Water Marketsand Trade

Basin Economy& Industry Ecosystem Service Valuation

Community Adaptationand Resilience

Outcomes for Aboriginal people

• Designed around [draft] key evaluation questions• All involve extensive measurement of social and economic conditions

Basin Economy & Industry

1. What are the key trends in economic conditions in the Basin?2. To what extent have different factors (Basin Plan and other drivers)

contributed to these trends?3. What have been the key trends in farm financial performance in

the Basin?4. How has water recovery contributed to changes in irrigated

production and profitability?5. How have on-farm efficiency programs affected participating

irrigation farms?6. How has Commonwealth-funded water recovery programs

contributed to local economies?

1. What have been the key trends in water markets?

2. To what extent have different factors (Basin Plan and others) contributed to these trends?

3. Is the water market enabling tradeable water rights to reach their most productive use?

Water Markets and Trade

1. How are communities adapting to change, including to the Basin Plan?

2. What has been the nature of their adaptation?

3. What has been the effect on community wellbeing?

Community Adaptation and Resilience

1. How well does the ecosystem services approach link Basin Plan environmental outcomes to social and economic outcomes?

2. Has water reform under the Basin Plan changed the social values of water on which communities depend? If so how?

3. What are the locally valued multiple benefits that a healthy ecosystem produces?

Ecosystem Service Valuation

1. How has the Basin Plan impacted Aboriginal water-related health and wellbeing?

2. Has there been an increase in First Nation ownership of water entitlements for cultural, spiritual and economic use?

3. What are the ecosystem service values and benefits for Aboriginal people from environmental water?

4. How have Aboriginal communities adapted to water policy changes?

Outcomes for Aboriginal people

Our major activities for producing results

• Acquiring and maintaining knowledge resources (such as internal and external expertise, quantitative and qualitative data sets);

• Delivering collaborative projects to generate new data or update existing data;

• Managing data according to industry standards;• Producing knowledge products for media, engagement,

communications and (internal and external) education, and;• Publishing project methods and results in international

independently peer-reviewed scientific literature to ensure the analysis is credible, robust and transparent.

External

• University Canberra Regional Well-being Survey

• ABS – census; farm-survey; GVIAP; water use

• Tourism Research Australia

• Recreational fishing

• BOM water trades

• Industry-sources irrigated areas

• ABARES commodity level data

• DAWR on-farm efficiency data

• Department of Environment and Energy ecosystem accounts pilot

Major data sourcesInternal• Longitudinal social survey - NEW• TLM environmental monitoring data• Community profiles – update• Hydrology-ecology-ecosystem data• Qualitative social interviews

• Basin Communities

• Federal Agencies (DAWR; DoEE; BOM; ABS)

• Universities (e.g. UTS; UniSA; ANU; UC) & CSIRO

• Local-Regional bodies (e.g. CMAs; Local Govt)

• State Governments

• Irrigation industries

• Aboriginal bodies (MLDRIN and NBAN)

Engagement

• Measuring social and economic impacts of water recovery is difficult• Many drivers of change in Basin communities

• Water recovery is one of many drivers of change

• Attribution and establishing a counter-factual is problematic

• Social and economic impacts are complex and both positive and negative

Major measurement challenge

• The Basin Plan aims to reverse the decline in ecosystem health in the MDB – taking a whole-of-basin approach

• Regular evaluation of Basin Plan implementation is part of an adaptive management cycle

• Social and economic impacts will be evaluated under 5 themes:• i) water markets; ii) Basin economies; iii) ecosystem services; iv)

community resilience, and v) Aboriginal outcomes

• We are taking a collaborative approach and using multiple lines of evidence to answer the many questions

Conclusion

Office locationsAdelaideAlbury-WodongaCanberraGoondiwindiToowoomba

mdba.gov.au 1800 630 114engagement@mdba.gov.au

Thank you.

30 May 2019