Measuring Results

Development goals and the drive to improve global statistics

Shaida Badiee, Development Data Group

The need for good statistics

• Development is about people. But to measure development and see its effect on people, we need good statistics.

James D. Wolfensohn

• … if we do not improve our statistical capacity in developing countries, this great opportunity will be lost.

Clare Short,1999

• If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.

Trevor Manuel, 2001

Results and National Statistics

• Good quality national statistics are needed to “manage for results”

• Developing countries ― manage their poverty reduction strategies and report progress to their citizens

• Development partners ― increase the effectiveness of their aid programs

• Civil society ― increase accountability of public agencies

• The private sector ‒ plan investments and make markets work

How well can we measure results?

East Asia and Pacificby number of countries

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

23 countries

Statistical capacity indicator: Practice

Statistical capacity indicator: Collection

Statistical capacity indicator: Availability

Capacity scores and GNI per capita

Sustainable statistical capacity is

possible in low income countries

Statistical capacity lowest in IDA countries

…there have been improvements

…in some regions more than others

Change 1999 to 2004

Statistics in PRSPs and CASs

PRS monitoring needs national statisticsOutcome indicators are used extensively, including

those required for monitoring MDGs and IDA 14

a review of Joint Staff Assessments reveals that the

capacity to produce and use them is limited

remedial action is insufficient- even though many CASs identify the issue only

some (e.g. results-based CASs) recommend action

BUT

AND

Actions to improve National Statistics

1. Monitor statistical capacity to better inform development processes

• Standard report on country statistical capacity, work with partners to share information about relevant capacity building initiatives

Monitoring statistical capacity

Population 12.1 million

GNI per capita $300 US

Burkina Faso IDA-IBRD average

Overall 63 60

Statistical practice 40 55

Data collection 70 54

Indicator availability 80 72

Law 040/96/ADP of November 8, 1996

Schéma Directeur de la Statistique du Burkina Faso 2004-2009

Completed / Adopted

SNA68

BPM4

GDDS

1996

Not complete

1993

Priority Survey (2003, 1998, 1994); DHS (2003, 1998, 1992)….

Development of the National Statistical System (IBRD/IDA, 2004)

Statistical Master Plan (TFSCB, 2003)

SDDS/GDDS (subscriber)

Statistical system information

Legal / strategic framework

Burkina Faso

Basic country information

STATCAP

High statistical content

NSDS / Statistical master plan

Statistical law

Population census (latest year)

Vital registration system (coverage)

Agricultural census (latest year)

Household surveys (recent years)

National accounts methodology

BOP (manual in use)

Statistical capacity score (on a scale of 0-100)

Data collection

World Bank projects

Statistical practice

NSDS status

0

20

40

60

80

100

Burkina Faso I DA-I BRD average

I ndicator availability

Data collection

Statistical practice

Statistical capacity at a glance

Actions to improve National Statistics

1. Monitor statistical capacity to better inform development processes

• Standard report on country statistical capacity, work with partners to share information about relevant capacity building initiatives

2. Implement Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics

• MAPS target: national statistical strategies in all IDA countries by 2006

Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics

• National level• Promote strategic planning of statistical systems• Prepare for the 2010 census round• Increase financing for statistical capacity building

• International level• Set up an international household survey network• Undertake urgent improvements needed for MDG

monitoring by 2005• Increase coordination for international statistical

system

Progress on MAPS

• Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building and PARIS21

• supporting development of national statistical strategies

• STATCAP lending program• approved in March 2004

• 2010 census round• UNSD leading

• International Household Survey Network• launched in September 2004

Actions to improve National Statistics

1. Monitor statistical capacity to better inform development processes

• Standard report on country statistical capacity, work with partners to share information about relevant capacity building initiatives

2. Implement Marrakech Action Plan for Statistics

• MAPS target: national statistical strategies in all IDA countries by 2006

3. Accelerate production of key indicators• Pilot program to demonstrate improved survey data

collection and reporting practices

Country Population Statistical capacity

score (%)

% of MDG indicators

with an estimate in 2000-2002

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Angola 13.5 35 69 M Q M

Benin 6.7 55 73 D C, Q (D), M

Burkina Faso 12.1 63 66 Q, D

Burundi 7.2 42 80 M Q M

Cameroon 16.1 48 80 M I D

Central African Rep. 3.9 27 63 M C M

Chad 8.6 53 70 M D

Congo, Dem. Rep. 53.2 38 67 M Q M

Congo, Rep. 3.8 37 68 M

Côte d’Ivoire 16.8 75 63 D M Q M

Eritrea 4.4 37 76 D M

Ethiopia 68.6 65 90 I D D

Gambia, The 1.4 52 70 M C (D), M

Ghana 20.4 52 69 C D Q

Accelerating progress

The capacity to produce statistics

And the planned program of national & international surveys

Are not sufficient to meet the demand for better indicators

What can be achieved over the next 3 years

1. Improved global monitoring and reporting• Of statistical capacity and support for statistical

capacity building

2. Good quality NSDS for all IDA countries• Where feasible, with resources for implementation• Broader inclusion of statistics in national plans

3. Pilot program in a number of countries• Accelerated production of key indicators

4. Other actions of MAPs:• Support for countries preparing 2010 census• Securing additional resources for MAPs