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MEASUREMENT OF LAND ON A COUNTRY’S BALANCE SHEET
Jennifer RibarskyNational Accounts Division, OECD
2014 NBS-OECD Workshop2 – 5 December 2014
Overview
• Background• Classification• Data sources• Overview of estimation methods• Overview of service lives and depreciation
2
• Created in response to:– G-20 data gaps initiative;
• Recommendation 15 “a strategy to promote the compilation and dissemination of the balance sheet approach (BSA), flow of funds, and sectoral data more generally, starting with the G-20 economies.”
– ESA 2010 requirements for additional mandatory items for table 26 “Balance sheets for non-financial assets”
• A joint Eurostat/OECD Task Force, including participation from the European Central bank (ECB), was created in June 2012.
Motivation for creating a Task Force on land and non-financial assets
3
• The goal of the Task Force is to elaborate on the conceptual and measurement issues related to the estimation of non-financial assets
• Recognition that the valuation of land and dwellings is a central issue when compiling balance sheets for non-financial assets
• A major goal of the Task Force is to provide a better understanding of how countries estimate stocks of land
Mandate of Task Force
4
Shares of financial & non-financial gross wealth of households & NPISH
5
Housing wealth
Value of land
Italy 40 60 57 27Germany 43 57 52 16The Netherlands 54 46 43 21United States 69 31 25 -France 35 65 63 33
Non-financial wealthCountry ¹
Financial wealth
¹ Data for Italy, The Netherlands and France refer to 2011. Data for Germany and United States refer to 2012
Sources: Banca d’Italia, DESTATIS, Deutsche Bundesbank, ONS, CBS, FED; ECB calculations.
Classification
6
Classification of land
1.Land underlying buildings and structures (AN.2111)
1.1 Land underlying dwellings (AN.21111)
1.2 Land underlying other buildings and structures (AN.21112)
2.Land under cultivation (AN.2112)
2.1 Agricultural land (AN.21121)
2.2 Forestry land (AN.21122)
2.3 Surface water used for aquaculture (AN.21123)
3. Recreational land and associated surface water (AN.2113)
4. Other land and associated surface water (AN.2119)
• Major constraint in estimating land is the lack of data from a single source
• Administrative sources (cadastre maintained by a land registry office, tax authority, or land information centre)
• Collection sources (population and housing census, business survey, or other type of survey including data collected by another government agency)
• Price sources
Data sources
7
• Estimation method used is driven by available source data
• Direct method: area of each parcel of land is multiplied by an appropriate price
• Indirect method: obtains either the value of the land indirectly or obtains the price of the land indirectly– Residual approach
– Hedonic approach
– Land-to-structure ratio approach
Estimation methods
8
• ,• Where is the total value of land in the
observed year t • reflects the price for land type in the
observed year t • the corresponding area measure
Direct estimation method
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Area data by land types and year
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YearRecreational
landOther land Total
Land underlying dwellings
Land underlying
other
Agricultural land
Forestry land
Surface water
used for 2007 21,000 30,000 178,000 110,000 800 2,500 700 343,0002008 22,000 31,000 177,000 109,000 900 2,500 600 343,0002009 22,000 32,000 177,000 107,000 900 3,500 600 343,0002010 23,000 32,000 176,000 107,000 1,000 3,500 500 343,0002011 24,000 33,000 174,000 106,000 1,200 4,300 500 343,0002012 24,000 34,000 174,000 105,000 1,200 4,400 400 343,000
Land under cultivationLand underlying
buildings and structures
Price data by land types and year
11
YearRecreational
landOther land
Land underlying dwellings
Land underlying
other buildings and
structures
Agricultural land
Forestry land
Surface water used
for aquaculture
2007 120.00 15.00 5.00 2.00 1.00 3.00 0.502008 115.00 13.00 4.50 2.00 1.00 4.00 0.402009 115.00 13.00 4.50 1.50 1.50 3.50 0.502010 120.00 14.00 4.00 1.50 1.00 4.00 0.402011 120.00 14.00 4.00 1.00 1.50 3.50 0.402012 125.00 15.00 3.50 1.00 1.00 4.00 0.50
Land underlying buildings and structures
Land under cultivation
Value of land across time
12
YearRecreational
landOther land Total
Land underlying dwellings
Land underlying
other buildings
and structures
Agricultural land
Forestry land
Surface water used
for aquacultur
e
2007 2,520.0 450.0 890.0 220.0 0.8 7.5 0.4 4,088.72008 2,530.0 403.0 796.5 218.0 0.9 10.0 0.2 3,958.62009 2,530.0 416.0 796.5 160.5 1.4 12.3 0.3 3,916.92010 2,760.0 448.0 704.0 160.5 1.0 14.0 0.2 4,087.72011 2,880.0 462.0 696.0 106.0 1.8 15.1 0.2 4,161.12012 3,000.0 510.0 609.0 105.0 1.2 17.6 0.2 4,243.0
Land underlying buildings and
structures
Land under cultivation
• Strength– Focus on area measure ensures complete coverage
of land within the SNA asset boundary
– Not as sensitive to key assumptions as results estimated using indirect method (i.e., PIM)
• Weakness– Huge data requirements (detailed land area and
price)
– Sometimes difficult to obtain current market price information for each parcel of land
Strengths & weaknesses of direct method
13
• Combined value can be estimated by– Appraisal method– Quantity times price (e.g., number of
dwellings in a country * price of real estate)– Net present value of future rentals
• Net stock of structures value– Normally based on Perpetual Inventory
Method (PIM)
Components of indirect approach calculation
14
Basic information available on quantity and prices for country X and region A
15
Dwelling stock, census
(number of dwellings)
Net addition (number of dwellings)
Dwelling stock, total (number of dwellings)
Dwelling stock, total (number of dwellings)
Number of sales
Average property price (EUR)
2002 784,912 784,912 363,652 7,849 62,2022003 6,356 791,268 7,913 63,0462004 13,069 804,337 7,980 79,2662005 20,291 824,628 8,051 95,099
Region ACountry X
Year
Estimated dwelling stock (quantity) for region A
16
Region ADwelling
stock, censusNet addition
Dwelling stock, total
Estimated dwelling stock, total
2002 784,912 784,912 363,6522003 6,356 791,268 366,5962004 13,069 804,337 372,6512005 20,291 824,628 382,052
Country XYear
Estimated combined value of dwellings
17
Estimated dwelling stock, total (number of dwellings)
Average property price (EUR)
CV of properties (billion EUR)
2002 363,652 62,202 22.62003 366,596 63,046 23.12004 372,651 79,266 29.52005 382,052 95,099 36.6
Region A
Year
• LVit=CVi
t-Cit
• Where is the total value of land at time t for each category of constructions
• CVit combined value of structures and land
at time t for each category of constructions
• Cit the value of constructions (i.e., the net
stock of structures only)
Residual Approach
18
Combined value and net capital stock
19
(Fictitious numbers)
Year Dwellings
(a)
Non-residential buildings
(b)
Other structures
(c)
Total (d=a+b+c)
1 100 80 60 2402 150 85 62 2973 200 90 65 3554 250 100 70 4205 300 110 75 4856 400 115 80 595
Combined value of constructions and underlying land (CV), by type and year
(Fictitious numbers)
Year Dwellings
(e)
Non-residential buildings
(f)
Other structures
(g)
Total (h=e+f+g)
1 50 43 40 1332 70 45 41 1563 95 47 43 1854 115 53 46 2145 140 58 49 2476 190 60 52 302
Net capital stock of constructions (C), by type and year
Value of underlying land
20
YearDwellings
(j=a-e)
Non-residential buildings
(k=b-f)
Other structures
(l=c-g)
Total (m=d-h=j+k+l)
1 50 37 20 1072 80 40 21 1413 105 43 22 1704 135 47 24 2065 160 52 26 2386 210 55 28 293
• Strength– Viable option if separate data sources don’t exist for
the structure and land underlying
– Values of the real estate are frequently available as well as the PIM value of structures
• Weakness– Every bias in the PIM and/or methodology used to
calculate the combined value affects the resulting value of underlying land
– Inaccurate and inconsistent estimates of CV and C can lead to negative values of land!
Strengths & weaknesses of residual approach
21
• Land-to-structure ratio = Value of land / Value of structures
• Value of land = Value of structures * Land-to-structure ratio
• Value of structures normally based on PIM method
Land-to-structure ratio approach
22
Derivation of land-to-structure ratio (LSR) for dwellings
23
Land-to-structure
ratio (LSR)Absorption price value
Building permit value
APV BPV1 … Urban core Single Single 750 400 0.882 … Urban core Apartment Multiple 410 250 0.643 … Urban fringe Single Single 400 260 0.544 … Urban fringe Row Multiple 310 210 0.485 … Non-urban Single Single 510 370 0.386 … Non-urban Semi-
detachedMultiple
200 165 0.21… … … … … … … …
Urban core Singles 0.80Multiples 0.65
Urban fringe Singles 0.58Multiples 0.45
Non-urban Singles 0.39Multiples 0.24
Location of property Type of property Value/price (thousands of dollars)
Averages for geographical area A
LSR = (APV - BPV) / BPV
Address Type of area Specific property type from survey
Single/ Multiple
Derivation of economy wide LSR
24
LSR Census weights Weighted LSRa b a*b
1 0.80 0.1488 0.11902 0.65 0.1598 0.10393 0.58 0.0062 0.00364 0.45 0.0011 0.00055 0.39 0.0041 0.00166 0.24 0.0004 0.0001
7 0.91 0.7403 0.67378 0.73 0.8184 0.59749 0.85 0.0654 0.0556
10 0.62 0.0150 0.009311 0.56 0.0352 0.019712 0.24 0.0053 0.0013
1.0000 0.87321.0000 0.7125
Geographical area AUrban core Singles
Urban core Singles
MultiplesUrban fringe Singles
MultiplesNon-urban Singles
MultiplesGeographical area B
MultiplesUrban fringe Singles
Multiples
Singles (1+3+5+7+9+11 )Multiples
Non-urban SinglesMultiples
Economy-wide
Deriving value of land underlying dwellings
25
Value of residential dwellings (billion CAD)
LSRValue of residential land
(billion CAD)a b a*b
Singles 1,170 0.87 1,018Multiples 630 0.71 447Economy-wide, all residential 1,800 1,465
• Strength– Avoids the potential issue of negative values
for land (doesn’t control to combined value)
• Weakness– Degree of representative of sample used to
derive the land-to-structure ratios
Strengths & weaknesses of residual approach
26
• i=1,..,n.
• Where PB is the price per square meter of building
• PL is the price for one square meter of land
• Input to the model:
– PiP is the property price for observation number i
– Bi is size of the building measured in square meters for observation number i
– Li is size of the land measured in square meters for observation number i.
– εi is the error term
Hedonic approach (simplest form)
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Example of hedonic approach
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Property transaction
Property price Price
Square meters Price
Square meters
Quality adjusted square meters
Not explained
Year of construction
Age of building
1 2,700,000 886 136 58 e1 1969 432 3,200,000 843 143 74 e2 1976 363 2,115,000 729 110 34 e3 1960 524 3,600,000 761 162 73 e4 1971 415 2,800,000 749 143 72 e5 1975 376 3,050,000 791 143 72 e6 1975 377 3,850,000 814 171 121 e7 1990 22
21,315,000 5,573 1,008 505
Land
PL PB
Buildings
• Strength– Provides a set of consistent figures for land,
buildings, and the combined value
• Weakness– Technically difficult and very data intensive– High risk of multicollinearity
Strengths and weaknesses of hedonic approach
29
Case study- Dwellings in Finland
30
1985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020110
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Combined value for real estates with dwellings Capital stock for dwellings
Land underlying dwellings, residual method Land underlying dwellings, direct method
Capital stock for dwelling- Finland
31
1985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020110
50
100
150
200
250
300
Capital stock for dwellings, 50 years Capital stock for dwellings, 60 years
Land value direct vs residual, 60 years Service life
32
1985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020110
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Land underlying dwellings, residual method Land underlying dwellings, direct method
Service lives for dwellings
33
CZ (Lin, LN)
DK (Lin, WF)
FI (Lin, WB)
DE (Lin, GM)
IT (Lin, TN)
KR (Oth, WF)
NL (Oth, WB)
SI (Lin) UK (Lin, NM)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Years
Depreciation rates dwellings
34
Proportion of initial stock of dwellings remaining after 25, 50, 75
35
AU AT BE CA CL CZ DK EE FI FR DE HU IS IL IT KR LV LT MT MX NE NO PT SK SI SE UK US0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Proportion of initial stock of dwellings remaining after 25 years
AU AT BE CA CL CZ DK EE FI FR DE HU IS IL IT KR LV LT MT MX NE NO PT SK SI SE UK US0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Proportion of initial stock of dwellings remaining after 50 years
AU AT BE CA CL CZ DK EE FI FR DE HU IS IL IT KR LV LT MT MX NE NO PT SK SI SE UK US0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Proportion of initial stock of dwellings remaining after 75 years
• Compilation Guide in final stages of review• To be published in early 2015
Eurostat-OECD Compilation Guide on land estimation
36
