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Measurement and Efforts to Improve Quality

Gayle Martin and Zelalem DebebeJune 30,2015

www.worldbank.org/SDI www.SDIndicators.org

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Measurement and Efforts to Improve Quality

Gayle Martin and Zelalem DebebeJune 30,2015

www.worldbank.org/SDI www.SDIndicators.org

Outline

• Large inter- and intra-country variation in key measures of quality

• Effectiveness requires simultaneous availability: in the same place at the same time

• What can be done to improve these measures of quality?

• Without focused effort, improvements in process quality will lag structural quality

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Large inter- and intra-country variation in key measures of quality:Diagnostic accuracyAdherence to clinical guidelines Treatment accuracy

Malaria with anemiaDiarrhea with severe dehydrationPneumoniaDiabetesTuberculosis

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Large inter- and intra-country variation in key measures of quality:Diagnostic accuracyAdherence to clinical guidelines Treatment accuracy

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Effectiveness requires simultaneous availability: in the same place at the same time

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% facilities with competent providers(46%)

% facilities with steth,+sphyg+sterilizing equip(78%)

Effectiveness requires simultaneous availability: in the same place at the same time

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Even when conditions are correctly diagnosed they are not necessarily correctly treated

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Even when conditions are correctly diagnosed they are not necessarily correctly treated

Simulation results: Respiratory Infection cases correctly diagnosed and treated

15.2%

# children with ARI

# children who sought care

# cases correctly

diagnosed

# cases correctly

diagnosed and

treated

364,950

259,114

123,338

55,632

15.2%

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Simulation results: Respiratory Infection cases correctly diagnosed and treated

Sources: UNPOP for Population data. SDI for provider competence estimates. DHS for prevalence and utilization data.

Kenya Nigeria Uganda Tanzania

512,392 560,120

973,840

364,950

112,33728,967

164,54955,632

# children with ARI

# children who sought care

# cases correctly diagnosed

# cases correctly diagnosed and treated

21.9% 15.2%16.9%5.2%

% of ARI cases correctly diagnosed and treated

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What can be done to improve these measures of quality?• Decompose clinical guidelines and identify

the relative effect of the components on the probability of successful diagnosis*

• Adherence to history taking and physical examination guidelines increases the probability of diagnostic accuracy by 54 % points

• Estimates are higher for providers with lower medical training (nurses): 36 % points versus 59% points• suggesting a higher return to adhering to

clinical guidelines among nurses compared to doctors and clinical officers

Dep var: Probability of a correct diagnosis

AllDoctors/clinical officers

Nurses

History taking and physical examination

0.540***(0.153)

0.361***(0.085)

0.591***(0.204)

Laboratory test 0.466***(0.063)

0.326***(0.087)

0.540***(0.089)

Observations 3145 1390 1740

R-squared 0.419 0.465 0.416

Number of providers 629 278 348

* We estimate a provider fixed effects model that enables to minimize unobserved heterogeneity due to unobserved time-invariant characteristics (such as innate abilities, intrinsic motivation etc.).

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Without focused effort, improvements in process quality will lag structural quality

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Looking to the future …

Providers with weakest skills are located in areas with highest mortality

Service Delivery Indicators