Meaning of targets for an emerging country : The ... for Train ... Kochi Patna Delhi Anand Dadra Olpad Surat Kalol Panvel Hassan Dispur Ambala Nangal Kanpur Jhansi Ujjain Jhabua Valsad

Meaning of "targets" for an emerging

country : The 'bifurcation' challenge

P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of Management

Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Indian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India

Presented in ParisTech side-event: “Modeling for Sustainable Development”Organized by CIRED, Copenhagen, December 14, 2009

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton As told to CNN's Fareed Zakaria in an interview http://business.rediff.com/report/2009/aug/11/do-no t-follow-us-growth-model-clinton-tells-india.htmhttp://edition.cnn.com/CNN/Programs/fareed.zakaria.g ps/

"Although India and China have every right to choos e their own path of development, they should not follow the Ame rican model in their Endeavour to improve the condition of their c itizens, ….“

Developing Country Scenarios


their Endeavour to improve the condition of their c itizens, ….“

"Our argument to China and India is: Yes, you have a right to develop and we want you to develop, and in fact, we admire your commitment to eradicating poverty and we want to he lp you do that. But you can't do it the way we did it, becaus e you will suffer consequences that will undermine your development" …

Alternate Development Perspectives

Carbon Market

Technologies

Energy Resources

Universal Participation

Market Structure/ Rules

Allocation of Rights

Modify Preferences

Competition/ Trade

Energy-Mix Mandates

Tech Transfer

Cooperative R&D

Remove Market Barriers

TargetInterventionsDriversAim

Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss

Global Greenhouse Gas

Concentration Stabilization

Carbon Market

Technologies

Energy Resources

Universal Participation

Market Structure/ Rules

Allocation of Rights

Modify Preferences

Competition/ Trade

Energy-Mix Mandates

Tech Transfer

Cooperative R&D

Remove Market Barriers

TargetInterventionsDriversAim

Stabilization at Minimum GDP Loss

Global Greenhouse Gas

Concentration Stabilization

Conventional Climate Centric Paradigm


ForecastingForecasting

Sustainable Development and Climate Paradigm

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability

National Socio-economic

Objectives and Targets

Global Climate Change


TargetsInterventionsDriversAim

Back-casting

Technological

Social/Institutional

Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co -benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co-benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Low Carbon Society

Innovations

Co -benefits

Sustainability






Back-casting

Technological


Management

Win/Win Options

Shared Costs/Risks

Aligning Markets

Modify Preferences

Avoid Lock -ins

Long -term Vision

Global Climate Stabilization Scenarios

Stabilization Scenarios with Global Targets

Baseline Paradigm

Scenarios

Conventional Sustainability

∆t 4 to 6OC ∆t 3 to 5OC


StabilizationTargets

Geography Level

2.66.0 5.0 Radiative Forcing Target W/m2

Global Regional National

4.5 2.66.0 5.0 4.5

Global Global Regional NationalGlobalLocal Local

∆t 3OC

∆t 2OC

Integrated Modeling Framework

DATABASES-Socio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environmental Constraints

AIM CGE Model

Integrated Modelling Framework

DATABASESDATABASESSocio-Economic, Technologies, Energy Resources, Environment

AIM CGE/GCAM

Integrated Modeling Framework


ANSWER-MARKALModel

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

el

AIM

Strategic D

atabase(S

DB

)

AIM SNAPSHOT ModelEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

el

AIM

Strategic Database

(SDB

)

ANSWER-MARKALModel

AIM ExSSEnd

Use

Dem

and

Mod

el

AIM

(SDB

)(S

trategic Database

)

National Analysis: MARKAL & End-Use Models

From 2005-2050:Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%Annual Population Growth: 0.9%

Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005Economy 23 timesPopulation 1.56 times

3,000

3,500Other RenewablesNuclearHydro

Energy

Base Scenario: Growth of Economy and Population

Carbon Emissions 7,000

8,000


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mto

e

HydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20402045 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

Global Stabilization Target: 2 OC

Mitigation Technology Options

Conventional Approach: transition with conventional path and carbon price

• High Carbon Price• Climate Focused Technology Push• Top-down/Supply-side actions

Technology Co-operation Areas• Energy Efficiency• Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro• Nuclear/CCS0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

Other

CCS

Device Efficiency

Nuclear

Renewable

Fossil Switch

Emissions (for 2O

Target)

Baseline Emissions

Carbon Price ($) 20 87 136 20052


Sustainability Approach: aligning climate and sustainable development actions

• Low Carbon Price• Bottom-up/Demand-side actions• Behavioural change• Diverse Technology portfolio

Technology Co-operation Areas• Transport Infrastructure Technologies• 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy• Process Technologies• Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes

Carbon Price ($) 20 87 136 20052

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

CO

2

CCSTransport Reduced ConsumptionRecyclingMaterial Substitutions

Device Efficiency

Renewable Energy

Building

Fossil Switch

Emissions (for 2O

Target)

Carbon Price ($) 15 55 100 11728

Dematerialization

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton

)

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton

)

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society

Cement

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton

)Steel

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

SocietyDem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Steel

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Conventional

Development

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society


2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Dem

and

(Mill

ion

Ton

)

Conventional

Development

Sustainable

Society

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Paper

Dem

and

(Tril

lion

Ton

-Km

s)

0

1000

2000

3000

Conventional

Development

Sustainable Society

Transport

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Sustainable Cities: Planning and Infrastructures

• Land-use Planning

• Building Choices

• Infrastructures

• Service Networks

Technologies for Train Corridors

Bus Rapid Transport System


Bus Rapid Transport System

AMC (Old

boundary)

AMC (New

boundary)

Low Carbon Scenario: AhmedabadAhmedabad (2009) Pop 5.5 Mil

10.2

61.1

20.4

8.6

15.4

6.3

2.44.33.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2035 BaU 2035 LCS

GH

G E

mis

sion

s/re

duct

ions

(mt-

C02

)

Transport EfficiencyIndustry EfficiencyBuilding EfficiencyFuel Switch

Energy Service demand

Coal + CCS

Emissions

Mitigation Contributions

67%


Industry Sector

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Inde

x 20

05 =

1

Output (Bn INR) Energy Demand GHG Emissions

2005 2035 BAU 2035 SS

Co-benefits of Energy Choices

CoCo--benefits of Southbenefits of South--Asia Asia Integrated EnergyIntegrated Energy--Water MarketWater Market

Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 2010 to 2030

$ Billion % GDP

Energy 60 Exa Joule 321 0.87

CO2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28 0.08

SO2 50 Million Ton 10 0.03

MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability


Total 359 0.98

Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits

• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)

• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)

• Flood control (MDG1&7)

• Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)

¨

!.

!.

!.

!. !.

!.

!.!.!.!.

F

F

Ñº

ÑºÑº

India

China

Iran

Pakistan

Afghanistan

OmanMyanmar (Burma)

Thailand

Nepal

Turkmenistan

Saudi Arabia

Tajikistan

Yemen

Bangladesh

Sri Lanka

Bhutan

Uzbekistan

Somalia

United Arab Emirates

Qatar

Laos

Malaysia

Bahrain

IndonesiaMaldives

Pune

GayaKota

Guna

Gadag

Kochi

Patna

Delhi

Anand

Dadra

SuratOlpad

Kalol

Panvel

Hassan

Dispur

Ambala

Nangal

Kanpur

Jhansi

UjjainJhabua

Valsad

NadiadRajkot

SolapurGuhagarChiptun

Chennai

Nellore

Kolkata

Sangrur

Sonipat

AuraiyaGwalior

Chotila Bharuch

PalmanerChittoor

Kokinada

LudhianaBathinda

Bareilly

Vijaypur

Mahesana

Tutikorin

MangaloreBangalore

Vijaywada

Faridabad

Ratnagiri

Kayankulam

Coimbatore

Jagdishpuri

Shahjahanpur

Vishakhapattnam

Tiruchchirappalli

Herat

MultanQuetta

Khuzdar

Karachi

Delaram

Kandhar

South-ParsIranshaharBandar-e-Abbas

Legend Important PlacesExisting Gas Pipelines

Proposed Gas Pipelines

Existing LNG terminalsProposed LNG terminalsExisting Gas Basin

Gas Pipelines under construction

Proposed Gas Basin¨

Carbon Price

Primary Energy and Carbon Price

400

800

1,200

1,600

Pri

mar

y E

nerg

y D

eman

d (M

toe)

Base

LCS_CT

LCS_SS

Total Energy Demand

(Mtoe )

Base 2825

LCS_CT 2945

LCS_SS 2207

Energy Mix in 2050


2OC Sustainability Scenario

Base Scenario0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pric

e (U

S $

/tCO

2)

2OC Conventional Mitigation Scenario

Carbon Price

0

400

Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Renewable

Pri

mar

y E

nerg

y D

eman

d (M

toe)

• Finance for Technology Transfer to developing countries

� Private, ODA and Development Bank Financing � Global funding for cooperation on RD&D

• Developing Technology Market � Coordinated Global and National Policies and Instruments

Global Carbon Price

Domestic Technology Industry


� Global Carbon Price� National Environmental Standards� National Energy Tax

• Creating Technology Industry in developing countrie s� Project Partnerships� JV for R&D� JVs for Technology Production in Developing Countries

Coordinated Targets for Co-Benefits

Coordinated Targets to gain Multiple Dividends

• In developing countries, significant opportunities exist for gaining co-benefits

• Technology Assessment should consider all costs and benefits


consider all costs and benefits

“For developing countries, the ‘good news’ is that their environment and natural resources policies are often so bad that there are reforms which would be both good for the economy and good for the environment.”

Joseph Stiglitz

Documents

Meaning of targets for an emerging country : The ... for Train ... Kochi Patna Delhi Anand Dadra Olpad Surat Kalol Panvel Hassan Dispur Ambala Nangal Kanpur Jhansi Ujjain Jhabua Valsad