MDG Progress Report 5 Final

8/9/2019 MDG Progress Report 5 Final

1/38EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


2/382 Philippines Fifth Progress Report on the Millennium Development Goals

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The PhilippinesFifth Progress Report - Millennium Development GoalsExecutive Summary

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The Philippines

Fifth Progress ReportMillennium Development Goals

Executive Summary



UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon has citedthe MDGs as “the most successul global anti-poverty push in history.” From the developmentplanning perspective, the MDGs have evidentlyhelped us in setting priorities and attainingdesired results. Te Philippines has adopted theMDG targets and ensured that the indicators

would be relevant to our national situation andcontext.

Te MDG Country Reports now stand amongthe best instruments to monitor our efforts andgains rom the ground. From these reports, we areable to extract lessons in order to continuouslyimprove and maintain the momentum towardsthe attainment o the MDGs.

Te “Philippines Fifh Progress Report on theMDGs” is the penultimate report beore 2015.With inputs rom consultations with government

agencies, the academe, research institutions, civilsociety organizations, and the UN Country eam,this publication intends to provide the status,trends, emerging challenges, lessons learned,best practices, and recommendations to meet theMDGs.

Tis Report shows that the Philippines is ontrack to meet the ollowing MDG targets: (1)providing universal access to primary education;(2) providing educational opportunities or girls;

(3) reducing inant and under-five mortality; (4)reversing the incidence o malaria; (5) increasingtuberculosis detection and cure rates; and (6)increasing the proportion o households withaccess to sae water supply. Furthermore, the targeto halving the proportion o people with no accessto basic sanitation has already been achieved.

On the other hand, there is a need to exertgreater effort to accelerate progress on theollowing areas where we are lagging behind: (1)elementary education in terms o completion rate;(2) maternal mortality; (3) access to reproductive

health; and (4) HIV/AIDS.

On education, the participation rate hassignificantly improved but the completion rate atthe elementary level has declined.

On health, the increase in maternal mortalityratio indicates that the target o 52 deaths per100,000 live births has a low probability o beingmet. Te contraceptive prevalence rate decreasedrom 50.1 percent in 2008 to 48.9 percent in 2011,still ar rom the country’s CPR target or 2015

which is at 63 percent, which indicates that thetarget or universal access to reproductive healthis also unlikely to be achieved. Fast-tracking theimplementation o the Responsible Parenthoodand Reproductive Health Law is crucial, not just inimproving the perormance o the MDG 5 targets,but also in empowering women to make inormedchoices. Efforts must be also intensified in haltingthe increasing number o HIV/AIDS cases.

On gender, boys are at a disadvantage interms o elementary and secondary educationparticipation, cohort survival rate, and

completion rate. Te Report also shows that moreemales enrol in tertiary education and that thereis a wide disparity in terms o unctional literacybetween males and emales, with the latter havingthe advantage.

Inequality at the national level has remainedhigh, despite a slight decrease o the Ginicoefficient rom 0.48 in 1991 to 0.47 in 2012.Uneven progress across regions also remains apressing issue. Regional assessments o MDG

Preface



national government as the enabling body orpolicy ormulation and budget allocation; thelocal government units as the rontline planners,resource programmers and implementers opolicies and programs at the grassroots level;

the private sector as the government’s partner inproviding investments and service delivery; andthe civil society as active advocates and monitors.

We are also starting to define our post-2015agenda by involving stakeholders in crafingour uture direction. Tis will require us toaggressively recalibrate and strategically re-think our programs, projects and activities. TePhilippine Development Plan (PDP) 2011-2016Midterm Update is paving the way or our post-MDG initiatives by putting in place spatial andsector-ocused strategies or the Plan period.

In terms o development goals, the UpdatedPDP introduces the multidimensional povertyindex (MPI) as a perormance indicator thatcomplements the traditional income povertydata. Tese initiatives will hopeully help us inattaining our vision o inclusive growth, where noFilipino is lef behind.

With only less than 500 days to the MDGdeadline, “business as usual” is no longer thepractice. What we need is a strong and unifieddetermination rom all sectors, at the national

and local levels, or our country to make good onour Millennium promise.

ARSENIO M. BALISACAN

Economic Planning Secretary

progress show that Bicol and most regions inMindanao perormed poorly in most o the goals,implying a high unmet need or social services,economic opportunities and social saety nets.Te signing o the Comprehensive Agreement

on the Bangsamoro, however, is a milestone thathopes to trigger genuine development in conflict-torn areas in the South.

Poverty incidence has been decreasing rom34.4 percent in 1991 to 25.2 in 2012. Povertyincidence in the first semester o 2013 wasestimated at 24.9 percent which shows a 3percentage point reduction rom the 27.9 percentpoverty incidence recorded or the first semestero 2012.

Te devastation caused by typhoon Yolanda

is seen to negate the progress or the MDGs,particularly in poverty reduction. Te Reportstresses that natural disasters and man-madeshocks impede the sustainability o povertyreduction efforts and consequently increasepoverty incidence, i no appropriate social saetynets are established to empower and protect themost disadvantaged and vulnerable sectors romurther risks. With extreme changes in weatherpatterns becoming the new norm, we need tointensiy the institutionalization o climate changeadaptation and mitigation measures, particularly

at the local levels.

Te challenges ahead and the urgency toachieve the MDGs reinorce the role o everystakeholder in the development process: the



With this Philippines Fifh Progress Reporton the Millennium Development Goals, thePhilippines examines itsel and invites thescrutiny o civil society on how efforts have aredtowards pre-determined MDG targets and how itplans to utilize the remaining months beore the

global reckoning at the end o 2015.

It is a comprehensive and transparent report.It summarizes the status o 35 MDG indicators,where we see that 14 indicators have a highprobability o being attained (pace o progressis greater than 90 percent), 14 indicators have alow chance o being attained (pace o progressis less than 50 percent), and 7 indicators havea medium or air chance (pace o progress isbetween 50 and 90 percent). It reports significantachievements in reducing inant and under-five mortality, empowering girls and women,

increasing the proportion o households withaccess to sae water and sanitary toilet acilities,reversing the incidence o malaria, and increasingtuberculosis detection and cure rates, alongsidedisappointing misses in improving maternalhealth, combatting HIV/AIDS, and addressingthe underperormance o boys relative to girlsin all levels o education. High scores withrespect to universal access to primary educationare described in the same breath as internalinefficiencies in the sector, which are reflected inlow cohort survival rates and completion rates.

It is also a orthright report. It questions thenature o the economic growth recorded in recentyears, asking whether and how that growth hasbeen inclusive, and offers an inequality analysisand a reflection on key bottlenecks or eachgoal. It takes note o striking disparities betweenregions and across income groups and admitsshortcomings in both access to employmentand the quality o employment, observing howthe latter is intimately linked with both incomepoverty and education achievements. It examinesthe dynamic between transient poverty andnatural hazard so relevant or Philippines.

Above all, it is a hopeul report, signiying theresolve o the Filipino Government and people topursue the inclusive and sustainable developmentembodied in the MDGs despite having just alittle more than a year to go. Nowhere else hasthis resolve been demonstrated than in the fightto eradicate poverty, where recent data suggestsa reduction in poverty incidence by 3 percentagepoints year-on-year, rom the first semester o2012 to the first semester o 2013, a substantialchange in pace rom the 9.2 percentage point

reduction observed over the 20 years between1991 to 2012. Tis result shows the power o publicand social policies, when they are well-designedand targeted, to reverse the intergenerationalcycle o poverty that has perpetuated exclusionsand vulnerabilities thus ar. Te ‘priorities oraction’ in this Report will be the object o the samecollective and concentrated effort by nationalgovernment, local governments, civil societyand the private sector over the next year – andbeyond, as the post-2015 Development Agenda isfinalized and adopted. Indeed, there is no betterbasis or optimism.

Mabuhay Philippines!

LUIZA CARVALHO

UN Resident Coordinator andUNDP Resident Representative

Message



Tis Report was prepared through thecollaborative efforts o the National Economicand Development Authority, under the leadershipand guidance o Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan,and the United Nations Country eam, led by Dr.Luiza Carvalho, UN Resident Coordinator.

Te NEDA would like to thank theconsultant, Dr. Celia Reyes o the PhilippineInstitute or Development Studies (PIDS) orher invaluable expertise in assessing MDGprogress, consolidating and analyzing relevantdata, integrating outputs o various stakeholders

consulted during the report’s ormulation, andproviding evidence-based recommendations orthe achievement o the MDGs in 2015.

Sincerest appreciation is also due to the UnitedNations Country eam (UNC), members othe Multisectoral Committee on InternationalHuman Development Commitments (MC-IHDC), NEDA-Social Development Committee(SDC), nongovernment organizations, privatesector, and academe/research institutions whoparticipated during the echnical Workshop

on the Philippines Fifh Progress Report on theMDGs held last June 18, 2013.

We would also like to thank the members othe Human Development and Poverty ReductionCluster (HDPR) or their valuable inputs/recommendations. We also acknowledge thetechnical inputs shared by the Deputy Director-General Emmanuel F. Esguerra, AssistantDeputy Director-General Rosemarie G. Edillon,and other NEDA Staffs, namely: AgricultureStaff; Inrastructure Staff; rade, Industry andUtilities Staff; National Planning and Policy Staff;Project Monitoring Staff; Regional DevelopmentCoordination Staff; Management Staff; andDevelopment Inormation Staff.

Recognition is also due to the NEDA-Social Development Staff or their technicalcontributions and the Accelerating Progress on theMDGs Project Unit and or the ull coordinationo activities rom the conceptualization o theproject to publication.

Lastly, the NEDA would like to thank theUnited Nations Development Programme orunding support and technical assistance.

Acknowledgements



List of Tables and FiguresTable 1. Philippines’ pace of progress in terms of attaining the MDG targets 12Table 2. Malaria Morbidity and Mortality Rates, 1990-2012 21Table 3. Tuberculosis: Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality Rates (per 100,000) 1990-2011 22

Table 4. Tuberculosis: Case Detection Rate, Treatment Success Rate and Cure Rate 1995-2011 22

Figure 1. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, 1990-2013 1

Figure 2. Poverty incidence among population, 1991-2012 2Figure 3. Gini coefcient, Philippines, by areas, 1985-2012 3

Figure 4. Share of bottom 20% to total income, Philippines, 1991-2012 3Figure 5. Decile Dispersion Ratio, Philippines, 1985-2012 4

Figure 6. Unemployment rate, Philippines, 2006-2013 5

Figure 7. Underemployment rate, Philippines, 2006-2013 5Figure 8. Proportion of employed population living below the national poverty threshold, 2003-2009 6Figure 9. Proportion of children attending school, by income group and by age group, 2011 7Figure 10. Percentage distribution of workers (aged 25 and over) by highest educational attainment and

by income quintile, 2009 7Figure 11. Average daily wage of wage/salary workers, by educational attainment, 2011 8

Figure 12. Movements in and out of poverty, 2003-2009 10Figure 13. Poverty incidence among population (%), 1991-2012 14Figure 14. Subsistence incidence among population (%), 1991-2012 14

Figure 15. GDP Growth Rate and Employment Growth Rate, 1990-2013 15Figure 16. Employment to Population Ratio, 1990-2013 15

Figure 17. Trend (%) in the prevalence of underweight-for-age among children, under-ve years old,for monitoring of MDG 1 using World Health Organization - Child Growth Standard (WHO-CGS):

1990-2011 16Figure 18: Elementary education NER and GER (%), SY 1991-1992 to SY 2012-2013 (public and private) 17

Figure 19: Elementary education CSR and CompR (%), SY 1991-1992 to SY 2012-2013 (public and private) 17Figure 20. Ratio of girls to boys in elementary education, 1996-2012 18Figure 21. Ratio of girls to boys in secondary education, 1996-2012 18

Figure 22. Under-Five, Infant and Neonatal Mortality, 1990-2011 19Figure 23. Maternal Mortality Ratio 20

Figure 24. Trends in contraceptive prevalence rate (%), by contraceptive method, 1993-2011 20Figure 25. Number of HIV/AIDS Cases Reported in the Philippines, 1990 to 2013 December 21

Figure 26. Philippine Forest Cover, 1990-2010 23Figure 27. Number of Threatened Wildlife Species 23Figure 28. Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area (terrestrial

and marine protected areas) 24Figure 29. Access to safe drinking water and sanitary toilet facilities 25

Figure 30. Proportion of urban population living in slum areas (%), 1990-2009 26Figure 31. Urban slum population in the Philippines, 1990-2009 26

Figure 32. NG outstanding debt and debt to GDP ratio, 1990-2012 27Figure 33. Debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services, 1990-2010 27



IntroductionIt is less than 500 days beore the 2015 target

date o achieving the MDG targets. Tis report isthe penultimate beore 2015 and is very importantin assessing where the Philippines is vis-à-vis thetargets. Moreover, this report can be the basis oraction to achieve accelerated progress within thenext two years.

Has growth been inclusive?

Recent economic growth has been remarkable.

GDP grew by an average o 5.2 percent over

the last 10 years. It grew by 7.2 percent in 2013,making the Philippines one o the astest growingeconomies in Asia. Te industry sector grew by 9.5percent, the services sector by 7.1 percent, and theagriculture sector by 1.1 percent. Construction ledthe industry sector by expanding at 11.1 percent,while the manuacturing sector rose by 10.5percent. On the other hand, mining contractedby 2.5 percent. Te growth in services was led byfinancial intermediation which expanded by 12.4percent. In agriculture, where the bulk o the poorare, growth was much slower, with agricultureand orestry expanding by 1.2 percent and fishing

expanding by 0.7 percent.

Executive Summary

Figure 1. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, 1990-2013

Source: National Income Accounts, Philippine Statistics Authority



Slow progress in povertyreduction

Despite the high economic growth in recentyears, progress in reducing poverty has been

slow. While income poverty, based on the officialpoverty thresholds, has declined rom 34.4percent in 1991 to 25.2 percent in 2012, this is stillar rom the MDG target o 17.2 percent by 2015.Natural calamities and economic shocks withinthe past ew years have affected the rate o povertyreduction. However, recent economic growth hastranslated to aster reduction in poverty. Tefirst semester data or 2013 shows a 3 percentagepoint reduction compared to the data or the firstsemester o 2012.

Inequality falls in the urban areasbut rises in the rural areas

Tere has been little improvement in thedistribution o income. Inequality, as measured

by the Gini coefficient, has gone down slightly atthe national level but remains high. Te Gini wentdown rom 0.48 in 1991 to 0.47 in 2012. Te samepattern is observed or the urban areas. It wentdown rom 0.47 to 0.45 during the same period.In contrast, inequality has risen in the rural areas,rom 0.39 to 0.45.

Te high inequality is maniested also in theshare o the bottom quintile to total income. In2012, only 5 percent o total income accrues tothe poorest 20 percent o the population whoseshare has increased very little over time.

Figure 2. Poverty incidence among population, 1991-2012

Source: Philippine Statistics Authority – National Statistical Coordination Board



Source: Celia M. Reyes, Aubrey D. Tabuga, Ronina D. Asis and Maria Blessila G. Datu, 2012, Poverty and Agriculture in the Philippines:Trends in Income Poverty and Distribution (PIDS DP 2012-09); and 2012 Family Income and Expenditure Survey.

Figure 3. Gini coefcient, Philippines, by areas, 1985-2012

Figure 4. Share of bottom 20% to total income, Philippines, 1991-2012

Source: Celia M. Reyes, Aubrey D. Tabuga, Ronina D. Asis and Maria Blessila G. Datu, 2012, Poverty and Agriculture in the Philippines:

Trends in Income Poverty and Distribution (PIDS DP 2012-09); and 2012 Family Income and Expenditure Survey.



Te small improvement in income distributionover time is observed in the decile dispersion ratio.

Te average income o the households belongingto the richest decile is now about 18 times that othe average income o the households belongingto the poorest decile. Tis reflects a small declinesince 1985 when the ratio was 21. Nevertheless,the ratio remains high.

Te recent economic growth has nottranslated to lower unemployment. In act, the

unemployment rate has been flat at around 7percent since 2011, prompting many to regardthe economic phenomenon as “jobless growth”.Te 7.1 percent unemployment rate in 2013translates to 2.9 million unemployed persons.On a more positive note, the proportion oemployed persons seeking additional work hasdeclined slightly rom 20 percent to 19.3 percent.Nevertheless, the underemployment rate stillremains high with 19 out o every 100 employedseeking additional work.

Figure 5. Decile Dispersion Ratio, Philippines, 1985-2012

Source: Celia M. Reyes, Aubrey D. Tabuga, Ronina D. Asis and Maria Blessila G. Datu, 2012, Poverty and Agriculture in the Philippines:Trends in Income Poverty and Distribution (PIDS DP 2012-09); and 2012 Family Income and Expenditure Survey.



Figure 6. Unemployment rate, Philippines, 2006-2013

Source: Yearbook of Labor and Statistics: http://www.bles.dole.gov.ph/ (downloaded 13 June 2013)

Figure 7. Underemployment rate, Philippines, 2006-2013

Source: Yearbook of Labor and Statistics: http://www.bles.dole.gov.ph/ (downloaded 13 June 2013)



In addition to access to jobs, the quality oavailable jobs has not been adequate to addressthe poverty situation. Having a job does notguarantee living above the poverty line. In 2009,about 22 percent o those employed are living

below the national poverty threshold. Te data orthe period 2003-2009 indicate an increasing trendin the proportion o the employed populationliving below the poverty line.

Tis relationship between employment andincome poverty may be partly attributable tothe skills, proxied by the educational attainment,o the workorce. Te lower income groupsgenerally have lower educational attainment. Tedisparity is most evident among the older agegroups o children. For instance, the proportiono children aged 6-11 attending school among the

poorest decile is 94 percent , while the proportionamong the richest decile is 99 percent. Looking

at the 12-14 age group, 84 percent o the childrenin the poorest decile attend school while 99percent o the children in the richest decile attendschool. For the 15-18 age group, less than hal othe children in the poorest decile (48.5%) attend

school, much lower than the 93 percent in therichest decile. Te large disparities in access toeducation translates to significant variation in theeducational attainment o the workorce. Only1 percent o the poorest quintile has finishedcollege while 46 percent o the richest quintilehave finished tertiary education. About 62percent o the poorest quintile have reached atmost elementary graduate and 23 percent havefinished at least high school. In contrast, only10percent o the richest quintile have not reachedhigh school while 86 percent have finished at leasthigh school.

Figure 8. Proportion of employed population living below the national poverty threshold, 2003-2009

Source of basic data: Family Income and Expenditure Survey and Labor Force Survey, Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) - National

Statistics Ofce (NSO) and PSA - National Statistics Coordination Board (NSCB).



Figure 9. Proportion of children attending school, by income group and by age group, 2011

Figure 10. Percentage distribution of workers (aged 25 and over) by highest educational attainment and by incomequintile, 2009

Source: Celia Reyes, Aubrey Tabuga, Christian Mina and Ronina Asis, 2013, Promoting Inclusive Growth through the 4Ps (PIDS DP 2013-10)



Te less educated workers would dominatecertain subsectors such as cultivation o coconutand copra making, seaweeds arming, inlandfishing, and cultivation o ruits and nuts. Teywould not be working in the more productive,

higher paying jobs such as in business processoutsourcing (BPO), manuacture o electricalequipment, or in the financial sector.

Te average daily wage o a worker who has acollege degree is more than three times the dailywage o one who is an elementary graduate andmore than double that o a high school graduate.Tus, the less educated workers find themselvesin low paying jobs, which in turn limits theircapacity to send their children to school, therebyperpetuating the intergenerational cycle o poverty.

Workers with lower education attainmenttend to be employed more in the agriculturesector. More than our fifhs o those withno schooling are working in the agriculturesector. More than hal o the workers with some

schooling but mostly with elementary educationare employed in the agriculture sector as well.Among workers with high school education, 53percent are engaged in the services sector, andonly 28 percent are working in the agriculturesector. Te remaining 19 percent are employedin the industry sector, with more than hal in themanuacturing sector. Among those with collegeeducation, 78 percent are in the services sector,13 percent in the industry sector and 9 percentin the agriculture sector. More than hal o thosewho are in the services sector are working in thewholesale and retail trade, public administration

and education.

Figure 11. Average daily wage of wage/salary workers, by educational attainment, 2011

Source: Celia Reyes, Aubrey Tabuga, Christian Mina and Ronina Asis, 2013, Regional Integration, Inclusive Growth and Poverty: Enhancing

Employment Opportunities for the Poor (PIDS DP 2013-10)


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acilities. In the case o Yolanda, the privatesector and the international community havebeen working with the Philippine government toaddress these shortages.

Unless recovery efforts are accelerated, theshort-term impacts could extend over thelong term as households adopt various copingmechanisms that may have lasting detrimentaleffects. Households may sell productive assetsto address their consumption needs whichconsequently affects their capacity to earn inthe uture. Households may also orego seekingmedical attention or children may permanentlydrop out o school, thereby adversely affectinguture human capital.

Te natural calamities and other man-made

shocks would tend to move the non-poor intopoverty and the poor into deeper poverty,thereby undermining poverty reduction efforts.Reyes et. al. (2011) show that during the period2003-2009, some amilies were able to move out

o poverty but the slots they vacated have beenfilled up by the new poor. Tus, it would seemthat there has been no change in the povertyincidence. Based on a panel dataset, 23.4 percento the amilies in 2009 are classified as poor. O

these amilies, 47 percent are chronically pooror consistently poor all throughout 2003-2009.Te rest were previously non-poor. Te over-allpoverty incidence in 2009 o 23.4 percent is not

very different rom the poverty incidence in 2003o 23.1 percent. Yet, Figure 13 shows that therehave been considerable movements in and out opoverty. Tis analysis highlights the importanceo appropriate saety nets to help amilies romalling into poverty in times o shocks. Withwell-established saety nets that can be rolled outimmediately afer a shock, the non-poor need notall into poverty and the poor will not all deeper

into poverty. Fewer transient poor would translateto a much lower poverty incidence, consistingmainly o the chronic poor.

Figure 12. Movements in and out of poverty, 2003-2009



Achievements towards the MDGtargets

Some progress has been made in reducingextreme poverty but not ast enough to achieve

the targeted rate o reduction. Sustained economicgrowth and more ocused poverty reductionefforts are necessary to achieve the target ohalving extreme poverty by 2015. Similarly, theprevalence o malnutrition has significantlydeclined since 1990 but the malnutrition rate o20.2 percent in 2011 remains ar rom the targetrate o 13.6 percent in 2015.

Te Philippines is likely to meet its targeto universal access to primary education. Withgreater resources being allocated to the educationsector, the backlogs in classrooms, teachers and

books are being addressed. However, the cohortsurvival and completion rates are still low and thequality o education still needs to be improved.

Gender disparities in education o politicalparticipation continue to be noted. Significantgains have been achieved in empowering girlsand women. Girls consistently have higher ratesin school participation, cohort survival andcompletion. Tere has also been an increase inthe proportion o elective seats held by women,although still ar rom the desired 50 percent.

Inant and under-five mortality rates havebeen considerably reduced and the targets willlikely be achieved by 2015. It is important to note,however, that neonatal mortality has only beenreduced slightly and is very much linked with thelow rate o delivery in acilities.

Data on maternal mortality ratio (MMR),based on either the NSO surveys or the FieldHealth Services Inormation System (FHSIS), donot show progress in recent years. It is unlikelythat the target o reducing the MMR by three

quarters, between 1990 and 2015, would beachieved. While the probability that a womanwill die is low i she gives birth in a acility, only55 percent o the births are delivered in acilities.Moreover, the total ertility rate has been goingdown but, a rising trend in teenage pregnancyand delivery has been observed.

Improvements in morbidity and mortalityrates associated with malaria have been noted. Inact, 27 provinces have been declared as malaria-ree in 2012 rom only 13 provinces in 2004.Similarly, the incidence, prevalence and mortality

rates associated with tuberculosis (B) havedeclined considerably, although B is still one othe leading causes o morbidity and mortality inthe country. On the other hand, the number onew HIV cases has been increasing, although theHIV prevalence is estimated to still be less thanone percent.

Te country has already surpassed its target ohalving the proportion o people with no accessto basic sanitation. It is very likely to meet itstarget with regards access to sae water by 2015.

Recent developments indicate that the countrywill sustain its higher growth trajectory. Tiswould mean aster progress as the people and thegovernment would have more resources to meetits needs.



Table 1. Philippines’ pace of progress in terms of attaining the MDG targets

MDG goals, targets and indicatorsProbability ofattaining the

target

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Target 1.A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is lessthan the poverty threshold

Proportion of population below poverty threshold MEDIUM

Proportion of population below food threshold MEDIUM

Target 1.C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer fromhunger

Prevalence of underweight children under-ve years of age MEDIUM

Proportion of households with per capita intake below 100% dietary energy requirement MEDIUM

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able tocomplete a full course of primary schooling

Elementary education net enrolment rate HIGH

Elementary education cohort survival rate MEDIUM

Elementary education completion rate LOW

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Target 3.A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by

2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015*

Ratio of girls to boys in elementary education participation rate HIGH

Ratio of girls to boys in secondary education participation rate HIGH Ratio of girls to boys in elementary education cohort survival rate HIGH

Ratio of girls to boys in secondary education cohort survival rate HIGH

Ratio of girls to boys in elementary education completion rate HIGH

Ratio of girls to boys in secondary education completion rate HIGH

Proportion of elective seats held by women LOW

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Target 4.A: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-ve mortality rate

Infant mortality rate HIGH

Under-ve mortality rate HIGH



MDG goals, targets and indicatorsProbability ofattaining the

target

Goal 5: Improve maternal healthTarget 5.A: Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality

ratio

Maternal mortality ratio LOW

Target 5.B: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health

Contraceptive prevalence rate LOW

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Target 6.A: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS

Number of new HIV/AIDS reported cases LOW

Number of population aged 15-24 with HIV MEDIUM

HIV prevalence among population aged 15-49 LOW

HIV prevalence among MARPs LOW

Proportion of population aged 15-24 with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS LOW

Proportion of population with advanced HIV infection with access to anti-retroviral drugs MEDIUM

Target 6.C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and othermajor diseases

Malaria morbidity rate HIGH

Malaria mortality rate HIGH

Tuberculosis treatment success rate HIGH

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainabilityTarget 7.C: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe

drinking water and basic sanitation

Proportion of population with access to safe water HIGH

Proportion of population with access to sanitary toilet facilities HIGH

Notes:

Computation of pace of progress is based on UNSIAP methodology;

Probability of attaining the target: LOW - pace progress is less than 0.5; MEDIUM - pace of progress is between 0.5 and 0.9; HIGH - pace of

progress is greater than 0.9



Target 1.A: Halve between 1990 and2015, the proportion of people whose

income is less than the poverty threshold

Income poverty has been declining rom 1991to 2012. Poverty incidence among populationslightly decreased rom 26.3 percent in 2009to 25.2 percent in 2012. Te first semester dataor 2013 shows a 3 percentage point reductioncompared to the data or the first semester o 2012.

Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Poverty And Hunger

Te ood threshold is the minimum incomerequired by an individual to meet his/her basic

ood needs and satisy the nutritional requirementsset by the Food and Nutrition Research Institute(FNRI), while remaining economically andsocially productive. Te subsistence incidenceamong population decreased rom 12 percent in2006 to 10.4 percent in 2012, which means that1 out o every 10 Filipinos do not have incomeadequate enough to meet basic ood needs.

Figure 14. Subsistence incidence among population (%), 1991-2012

Figure 13. Poverty incidence among population (%), 1991-2012

Source: PSA-NSCB

Source: PSA-NSCB



Target 1.B: Achieve full and productiveemployment and decent work for all,including women and young people

GDP had a steady growth rom 1991 to 1994

and rom 2001 to 2004, the employment levelsurges and declines. Correspondingly, when theeconomy rebounded strongly posting a 6.6%GDP growth rate in 2012, employment actuallyell by 2.1% rom 2011. Tis can be attributedlargely to the difference in the structure o theeconomy and the labor market. Te agriculture,orestry and fishing sector which accounted orthe smallest contribution in GDP due to droughtsand destructive typhoons absorb one-third o thecountry’s total labor orce.

Te employment-to-population ratio

demonstrates the ability o an economy to provideemployment to its population. From 1990 to 2013,the movement has been stagnant between 59% and60%. Te highest proportion at 61% was reachedin 1996 while the lowest at 56.5% occurred in 2000.

Te low employment-to-population ratio or thepast two decades may be due to the unresolvedskills mismatch, low quality employment and lacko employment opportunities.

Target 1.C: Halve, between 1990 and2015, the proportion of people whosuffer from hunger

Te 2011 Nutritional Status o Filipinos (NSF)showed a significant decline in the prevalence ounderweight-or-age under-five children since1990. Te overall decline was not ast enoughand the 20.2 percent prevalence in 2011 wasequivalent to an average annual percentage pointdecrease o 0.34, lower than the targeted 0.55annual percentage point reduction rom 2000to achieve one o the targets o MDG 1 (NNC

2012). More crucial is that the country will needa 6.6 percentage point reduction or about 1.65percentage points per year rom 2011 until 2015to meet the MDG target o halving the number ounderweight children (FNRI 2011).

Figure 15. GDP Growth Rate and Employment Growth Rate, 1990-2013

Note: Total Employed data for 1990 to 1997, based on 1980CPH; 1998 to 2006, based on 1995CPH; 2007 up to present, based on 2000CPH.

Sources: PSA-NSO and PSA-NSCB



Figure 17. Trend (%) in the prevalence of underweight-for-age among children, under-ve years old, formonitoring of MDG 1 using World Health Organization - Child Growth Standard (WHO-CGS): 1990-2011

Figure 16. Employment to Population Ratio, 1990-2013

Source: PSA-BLES

Source of basic data: National Science Fair 2011, Food and Nutrition Research and Institute (FNRI)



Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, childreneverywhere, boys and girls alike, will beable to complete a full course of primary

schooling

Te country’s perormance in terms oelementary NER, which is a key indicator ouniversal access to primary education, waselevated rom a low probability o attaining the2015 target o 100 percent in the previous years.Tis is due to the revision o the NER (andGER) data with the use o school-age populationestimates based on the 2000 and 2010 Census oPopulation and Housing (CPH).

Afer a steep decline rom 2001 to 2006,

elementary participation rate or net enrolment

ratio (NER), which measures school-age children’saccess to school, has steadily improved rom a lowo 83.2 percent in SY 2006-2007 to 95.2 percent

in SY 2012-2013. Following a similar trend isthe gross enrolment rate (GER) which reached113.7 percent in SY 2012-2013, rom a low o99.9 percent in SY 2006-2007. Te gap betweenthe GER and NER remains high in SY 2012-2013which reflects the magnitude o over-aged pupilsin elementary education.

Both the cohort survival rate (CSR) andcompletion rate (CompR) have generally improvedsince SY 1991-1992, though characterized byfluctuations. Boys continue to underperormcompared to girls in all the key indicators, but

more so in terms o CSR and CompR.

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Figure 18: Elementary education NER and GER (%), SY 1991-1992 to SY 2012-2013 (public and private)

Source: Research & Statistics Division Ofce of Planning Service, Department of Education

Figure 19: Elementary education CSR and CompR (%), SY 1991-1992 to SY 2012-2013 (public and private)

Source: Research & Statistics Division Ofce of Planning Service, Department of Education

Note:

For SY 2002-2003 to SY 202010, the population used in

computing the gross and neenrolment rates is based onrevised population projectio

based on 2.04 percent annugrowth rate between 2000

and 2007 Censuses.For SY2010-2011 to SY 2012-201population is based on 2010

CPH provided by NSO.



Target 3.A: Eliminate gender disparityin primary and secondary education,

preferably by 2005, and in all levels ofeducation no later than 2015

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Figure 20. Ratio of girls to boys in elementary education, 1996-2012

Source of basic data: Research & Statistics Division Ofce of Planning Service, Department of Education

Figure 21. Ratio of girls to boys in secondary education, 1996-2012

Education indicators continue to lean towardsgirls as basic education data show that girls

nearly surpass boys in ormal basic education.Te ratio o girls to boys in elementary educationis consistently at less than 1.0 rom 1996 to 2012.In secondary education, girls had consistentlyoutnumbered boys.



Target 4.A: Reduce by two-thirds,between 1990 and 2015, the under-ve

mortality rate

argets or inant and under-five mortalityrates remain to be achievable by 2015. Latest datareveal that the number o inant and under-five

deaths continued to decrease rom 2006 to 2011.In 2006, the number o inant deaths was at 24 per

1,000 live births and under-five deaths at 32 per1,000 live births. In 2011, deaths decreased to 22and 30 per 1,000 live births, respectively.

Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality

Figure 22. Under-Five, Infant and Neonatal Mortality, 1990-2011

Source: 1990 Technical Working Group on Maternal and Child Mortality, PSA-NSCB; National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS)

(1993, 1998, 2003 &2008), NSO; Family Planning Survey (FPS) 2006, Family Health Survey 2011



Target 5.A: Reduce by three quarters,between 1990 and 2015 the maternalmortality ratio

Te country’s maternal mortality ratio (MMR)decreased rom 209 per 100,000 livebirths in 1990to 172 per 100,000 livebirths in 1998 and to 162per 100,000 livebirths in 2006. However, basedon the 2011 Family Health Survey, the MMRincreased to 221 per 100,000 livebirths. Whilethe difference between the 2006 and 2011 figuresmay not be statistically significant, the previousobservation that the country is not on track inmeeting MDG5 still holds.

Target 5.B: Achieve by 2015, universalaccess to reproductive health

Based on National Statistics Office (NSO) data,the target or universal access to reproductivehealth is unlikely to be achieved, as determinedby the contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR). TeCPR among currently married women (15-49years) remains stagnant at almost 50 percent(rom 1998 to 2011). From 2006 to 2011, theCPR even decreased rom 50.6 percent to 48.9percent. For the same period, the prevalencerate or modern methods was roughly constant,while the traditional methods decreased by 2.8percentage points.

Goal 5: Improve Maternal Health

Figure 23. Maternal Mortality Ratio

Sources: NSCB (1990-1995); NDS, NDHS, FPS, FHS, PSA-NSO (1998-2011)



Figure 24. Trends in contraceptive prevalence rate (%), by contraceptive method, 1993-2011

Source: National Demographic Household Survey and Family Health Survey, PSA-NSO



Target 6.A: Have halted by 2015 andbegun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS

Based on the Philippine HIV and AIDSRegistry o the National Epidemiology Center(NEC), the increase in the number o new HIVinections is rapidly changing. Te numbero cases doubled i the 2011 cases (2,349) iscompared with the 2013 cases (4,814). From1984 to December 2013, there were 16,516 HIVAb sero-positve cases reported to the PhilippineHIV and AIDS Registry. O the total, 1,507(9%) were AIDS cases while 15,009 (91%) wereasymptomatic. Furthermore, about 89 percent (or14,659) o the cumulative total were males. Teage groups with the most number o cases were

20-24 years (22%), 25-29 (30%), and 30-34 years(19%). Clearly, HIV inection is highest amongthe productive age group.

Target 6.C: Have halted by 2015 andbegun to reverse the incidence of malariaand other major diseases

Malaria

Malaria data show that or the period 1990-2012,malaria morbidity rate declined rom 123 cases per

100,000 population in 1990 to 8.3 cases per 100,000population. Te mortality rate due to malarialikewise declined rom 1.5 deaths per 100,000

population in 1990 to .03 per 100,000 in 2010. Tisurther declined to .01 per 100,000 population in2011 and remained at that level in 2012.

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

Figure 25. Number of HIV/AIDS Cases Reported in the Philippines, 1990 to 2013 December

Source: Philippine HIV and AIDS Registry, National Epidemiology Center

Table 2. Malaria Morbidity and Mortality Rates,1990-2012

YearMorbidity rate(per 100,000)

Mortality Rate(per 100,00)

1990 123 1.50

1995 86 0.90

2000 48 0.402005 55 0.17

2007 41 0.08

2008 26 0.06

2009 22 0.03

2010 21 0.03

2011 9.5 0.01

2012 8.3 0.01

Source: Department of Health (DOH)



Tuberculosis

uberculosis is still one o the top causes omorbidity and mortality in the country. Dataindicate that or the period 1990-2011 the

incidence rate due to tuberculosis decreased rom393 cases per 100,000 population in 1990 to 270per 100,000 cases in 2011. Prevalence rate alsodeclined rom 1,000 cases per 100,000 in 1990 to484 cases per 100,000 population in 2011. Te Bmortality rate likewise declined rom 58 deathsper 100,000 population in 1990 to 29 deaths per100,000 population in 2011.

able 19 shows the progress in terms oprogram indicators namely, case detection rate

Table 3. Tuberculosis: Incidence, Prevalence and Mortality Rates (per 100,000) 1990-2011

Year Incidence Rate Prevalence Rate Mortality Rate

1990 393 1000 58

1995 360 904 49

2000 329 775 41

2005 301 633 35

2009 280 520 31

2010 275 502 30

2011 270 484 29

Source: Global Tuberculosis Report 2012, WHO;

Table 4. Tuberculosis: Case Detection Rate, Treatment Success Rate and Cure Rate 1995-2011

Year Case Detection Rate Treatment Success Rate Cure Rate

1995 48 60 73

2000 47 88 82

2005 53 89 80

2009 57 89 82

2010 65 91 85

2011 76 91 85

Source: Global Tuberculosis Report 2012, WHO

(CDR) which represents the proportion o Bcases detected out o the estimated incident cases,treatment success rate (SR) which represents theproportion o those who got cured and those whocompleted treatment, and cure rate (CR) which

measures the number o B cases who completedtreatment and with two smear negative results atthe end o treatment. For the period 1995- 2010,the CDR increased rom 48 percent to 65 percent.Te CR likewise increased rom 73 percent to 85percent and the FR increased rom 60 percent in1995 to 91 percent in 2010. As o 2011, the CDRwas posted at 76 percent, SR at 91 percent andCR at 85 percent.



Target 7.A: Integrate the principles ofsustainable development into countrypolicies and programmes and reverse the

loss of environmental resources

Te latest orestry data released by theDepartment o Environment and NaturalResources-Forest Management Bureau (DENR-FMB) based on the 2010 satellite imageries showsthat the orest cover shrunk rom 23.9 percento the country’s total land area (7,162,560 ha) in2003 to 22.8 percent (6,839,718) in 2010. Tisindicates that the remaining orest covers areabout 4.59 percent, or 328,682 hectares, less thanthe 2003 estimate.

Target 7.B: Reduce biodiversity loss,achieving, by 2010, a signicantreduction in the rate of loss

On biodiversity conservation, extinction othreatened flora and auna has been continuouslyprevented as reported by the DENR. Te notedreduction o auna species rom 221 to 207 was

due to the deletion rom the Convention onthe International rade in Endangered Species(CIES) o some listed species which has been

taxonomically re-classified (e.g., PhilippineSerpent Eagle, Western Marsh Harrier, LuzonHornbill and Mindanao Hornbill).

Te number o areas under the NationalIntegrated Protected Area System Act (NIPAS) hasbeen continuously expanding, thus contributingto conservation o biodiversity. From 143terrestrial protected areas covering 2.49 millionhectares or 8.5 percent o the total surace areao the country in 1990, it increased to 170 PAscovering 4.07 million hectares or 13.5 percent in2010. As o 2010, the ratio o protected areas to

maintain biological diversity to surace area (bothterrestrial and marine protected areas) increasedby 0.69 percent rom 2005 with a correspondingincrease in area by 263 thousand hectares.Protected areas are classified into natural park,protected landscape/seascape, natural monument/landmark, resource reserve, wildlie sanctuary,natural biotic areas and marine reserve.

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Figure 26. Philippine Forest Cover, 1990-2010

Source: PSA-NSCB MDG Database; DENR-Forest Management Bureau (FMB)


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Target 7.C: Halve the proportion ofpeople with no access to safe drinkingwater and basic sanitation or those whocannot afford it by 2015.

Te 2011 Annual Poverty Indicators Survey(APIS) conducted by NSO shows the continuouslyincreasing number o amilies that have access tosae drinking water and sanitary toilets acilities.

Te proportion o amilies with access to saewater supply has consistently increased rom78.1 percent in 1998 to 84.4 percent in 2011. Tiscovers community water systems and protectedwells. Other sources o water that are consideredunsae are unprotected well, developed spring,undeveloped spring, river, stream, pond, lake

or dam, rainwater, tanker truck or peddler andother sources.

Te proportion o amilies with access tosanitary toilets has significantly increased rom

80.4 percent in 1998 to 91.6 percent in 2011.Own toilets, shared toilets and closed pits areconsidered sanitary, in contrast to open pits,drop/overhang, pail system and absence o accessto a toilet acility.

Te current trend illustrates that the probabilityo attaining the 2015 MDG target to ensure that86.8 percent o the population will have access tosae water is high. Furthermore, the 83.8 percenttarget or access to sanitary toilet acility hasalready been achieved.

Figure 29. Access to safe drinking water and sanitary toilet facilities

Sources: Census of Population and Housing and APIS, PSA-NSO



Target 7.D: By 2020, to have achieved asignicant improvement in the lives of atleast 100 million slum dwellers

Te United Nations defines the proportion o

urban population living in slums as the proportiono urban population living in households lackingone or more o the ollowing conditions: (a)access to improved water; (b) access to improvedsanitation; (c) sufficient living area; (d) durability

o housing; and (e) security o tenure. Basedon this definition, the proportion o urbanpopulation living in slum areas in the Philippineshas been estimated and shows a declining trendrom 54.3 percent in 1990 to about 40.9 percent in

2009 (Figure 86). However, while the proportionis declining over time, the magnitude o the slumdwellers has steadily increased rom 16.47 millionin 1991 to about 18.30 million in 2009.

Figure 30. Proportion of urban population living in slum areas (%), 1990-2009

Source: State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013, UN Habitat

Figure 31. Urban slum population in the Philippines, 1990-2009

Source: State of the World’s Cities 2012/2013, UN Habitat



Target 8.A: Develop further an open, rule- based, predictable, non-discriminatorytrading and nancial system

In general the outstanding debt o thePhilippines is on an increasing trend since 1990,reaching PhP5.44 trillion in 2012. Given this,however, it also noticeable that debt to GDP ratio(rom 2004) and debt service as a percentage oexports have been generally decreasing. From74.45 percent in 2004, debt to GDP ratio hasdropped to 51.46 percent while debt service asa percentage o exports o goods and services

dropped rom 27.2 percent in 1990 to 11.2percent in 2010 (the increasing movement othe latter rom 2008 to 2010 may be due to the

decrease in outputs o the export sector as a resulto the economic crises and the weakened globaleconomy.

Among others, these avourable developmentsmay be related to the country’s debt managementefforts which consider the “minimization oexposure to oreign exchange shocks as well asmaking most out o the avourable domesticinterest rates” (SER 2010-2012).

Figure 32. NG outstanding debt and debt to GDP ratio, 1990-2012

Sources: Department of Finance (http://www.dof.gov.ph/?page_id=4024, retrieved 4 July 2013) and NEDA-NPPS

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development



Figure 33. Debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services, 1990-2010

Source: PSA-NSCB


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Documents

MDG Progress Report 5 Final