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0Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
McVEANTrading & Investments, LLC
CHINA OUTLOOK
Michael Drury
Chief EconomistMcVean Trading and Investments, LLC
ATLANTA, GA
AUGUST 28, 2019
U.S. NATIONAL ECONOMY CIRCA 1982
1Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
SUNBELT
GLOBAL ECONOMY TODAY
2Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
SUBURBS RUST BELT SUNBELT
2018 GLOBAL GDP
$86.0 TRILLION
3Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
EUROPE
$19.2T
EUROZONE
$13.4T
NAFTA
$23.2T
US
$20.3T
JAPAN+SOUTH
KOREA+TAIWAN
$7.3T
HK +
MACAU+
OPEC+
BRAZIL+
RUSSIA+
AUSTRALIA+
ARGENTINA
$10.5T
CHINA
$13.4T
OTHER
$11.4T
Source: IMF/McVean
SHARES OF GLOBAL GDP
4Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Source: IMF/McVean
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1990 2000 2007 2017
SHARES OF GLOBAL GDP
US EU+JAPAN NEW ASIA OTHER
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
Jan-60 Jan-64 Jan-68 Jan-72 Jan-76 Jan-80 Jan-84 Jan-88 Jan-92 Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-16
Q2 2019
US TRADE BALANCE AS A % OF GDP
4 QTR AVERAGE
5Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
DURABLES UNLIKELY TO CAUSE A RECESSION
6Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
24.0%
Jan-48 Jan-53 Jan-58 Jan-63 Jan-68 Jan-73 Jan-78 Jan-83 Jan-88 Jan-93 Jan-98 Jan-03 Jan-08 Jan-13 Jan-18
DURABLES SHARE OF NOMINAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Q2 19
NAFTA AND WTO
HAD LITTLE EFFECT ON TRADE
7Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
SHARE OF US IMPORTS
NAFTA WESTERN EUROPE PACIFIC RIM OTHER
CHEAPER IS WHAT DRIVES IMPORTS
8Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
SHARE OF US IMPORTS
CHINA & MEXICO CANADA, JAPAN & EUROPE
13%
18%
23%
28%
33%
38%
Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15 Mar-17 Mar-19
CHINESE EXPORTS VS IMPORTSAS A % OF GDP
EXPORTS IMPORTS
CHINA SHIFTS TO DOMESTIC FOCUS
9Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Q2 19
10Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
PRIVATE SECTOR BEARS THE BURDEN
US FIRMS THAT DEPEND ON
FOREIGN SALES ARE ALREADY HURTING
11Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
SOE PROFIT ARE CHINA’S SAFETY NET
12Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
CHINA IS INTRODUCING RISK INTO THE SYSTEM
13Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
Source: Wall Street Journal
2016 CHINA + HONG KONG EXPORT PIE
$2.0 TRILLION
14Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
PAC RIM
EUROPE
NORTH AMERICA
SOUTH ASIA
MENA
LATIN AMERICA
OTHER
PACIFIC RIM
30%
EUROPE
24%
NORTH
AMERICA
22%
2016 US EXPORT PIE
$1.5 TRILLION
15Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
NORTH AMERICA
WESTERN EUROPE
PACRIM
OTHER
NORTH
AMERICA
34%
OTHER
23%
PAC RIM
25%EUROPE
18%
THIS IS THE TARIFF ROUND
CHINA FEARED MOST
16Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
SOLAR &
WASHING
MACHINES
STEEL &
ALUMINUM
25% ON $50 B
$36B, THEN $14B
INDUSTRIAL
PARTS & CHEMICALS
10% ON $200B
25% ON JAN 1
15% MORE ON THE
SAME $200B
YOU START WITH THE
LOW HANGING FRUIT
CHINA TIT FOR TAT RESPONSE 25% ON $50 B
MOSTLY
AGRICULTURE
10% TO 25%
ON $60 B5% TO 25% ON
ANOTHER $60B
FURTHER TARIFFS WILL LIFT US PRICES
17Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
THE NEXT $325 B LANDS OUTSIDE CHINA
18Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
CURRENT EXPORTERS OF INDUSTRY
19Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
PER CAPITA POPULATION GDP
INCOME (MILLIONS) (BILLIONS)
US Northeast 70541 63948 4511.0
US West 67881 52704 3577.6
US Midwest 56477 58673 3313.7
US Resource 56042 63631 3566.0
Germany 48669 82439 4012.2
US South 48621 88340 4295.2
France 42930 65481 2811.1
U.K. 42260 66959 2829.7
Japan 40105 126855 5087.5
Italy 34349 59217 2034.0
South Korea 32046 51339 1645.2
Spain 31059 46441 1442.4
Taiwan 25535 23758 606.7
Saudi Arabia 23186 34141 791.6
CURRENT IMPORTERS OF INDUSTRY
20Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
PER CAPITA POPULATION GDP
INCOME (MILLIONS) (BILLIONS)
Greater Shanghai 15567 159695 2485.9
Argentina 14462 45102 652.3
Southeast China 14160 155938 2208.0
Poland 13821 38028 525.6
Russia 10955 143896 1576.4
JinJingJi + SD 10889 211207 2299.9
Turkey 10537 82962 874.2
Brazil 9895 212393 2101.6
Malaysia 9755 32454 316.6
Mexico 9318 132328 1233.0
Chongqing+Hubei+Shaanxi 9087 127037 1154.4
Liaoning+Jilin 8159 71233 581.2
Hunan+Jiangxi 7212 113815 820.9
Venezuela 6890 32780 225.9
Henan+Anhui 6853 156758 1074.2
Peru 6731 32934 221.7
Sichuan 6654 82330 547.9
Thailand 6590 69306 456.7
Colombia 6379 49850 318.0
South Africa 6179 58065 358.8
West China 5860 65736 385.2
Guangxi+Guizhou+Yunnan 5701 131157 747.7
Iran 5289 82821 438.0
NEXT GENERATION FOR INDUSTRY
21Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
PER CAPITA POPULATION GDP
INCOME (MILLIONS) (BILLIONS)
Indonesia 3876 269536 1044.7
Dehli & Haryana 3457 42139 146
Philippines 2976 108106 321.7
Egypt 2501 101169 253.0
Maharashtra 2500 112374 281
Telangana 2500 35287 88
Viet Nam 2354 97429 229.3
Karnataka 2400 61095 147
Tamil Nadu 2300 72147 166
Kerala 2300 33406 77
Gujarat 2200 60440 133
Andhra Pradesh 2000 84581 169
Nigeria 1994 200962 400.7
Kenya 1702 52215 88.9
Bangladesh 1602 168066 269.2
Pakistan 1541 204596 315.3
Myanmar 1264 54336 68.7
CHINA CREDIT LEADS THE WORLD ECONOMY
22Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
35
40
45
50
55
60
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
CHINA SOCIAL FINANCING VS US & EUROPEAN PMI
CHINA SOCIAL FINANCING (12 MO AVERAGE) AVERAGE OF EUROPE & US PMI (3MO AVG) July-19
CHINA FISCAL STIMULUS
IS BECOMING A FLOOD
23Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
• Infrastructure -- mostly high speed rail -- raised by $80 billion
• Middle class income taxes and new deductions for key services
• Lowered interest rates and reserve requirements
• Pulled forward $220 billion in state government lending
• Small business loans increased
• Tariffs reduced (even for US) and export rebates increased
• Promised $300 billion in stimulus at National Congress
• Cut VAT from 1% to 3% depending on product
• $45 billion in new tax and fee reductions passed on April 15th
• Changed definition of prime rate to lower costs for SME
• Cumulative over 4% of GDP since mid-2018
CHINA LEADS THE GLOBAL MANUFACTURING
24Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
48
49.5
51
52.5
54
45
50
55
60
65
7/1/2012 7/1/2013 7/1/2014 7/1/2015 7/1/2016 7/1/2017 7/1/2018 7/1/2019
China, Eurozone and US PMI
Eurozone US CHINA Jul-19
CHINA & US EQUITIES ARE REBOUNDING
25Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 1/1/2019
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE S&P 500July 19
CHINESE RAILROAD FREIGHT VS ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
3 MONTH AVERAGE % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO 3 MONTH AVERAGE
26Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
RAIL ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION June-19
CHINA EXPORTS VS IMPORTS
6 MONTH AVERAGE %CH FROM 6 MONTH AVERAGE YEAR AGO
27Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
-33.0%
-16.5%
0.0%
16.5%
33.0%
49.5%
66.0%
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
EXPORTS IMPORTS Jul-19
CHINESE PPI IS BOTTOMING
28Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1/31/2002 1/31/2004 1/31/2006 1/31/2008 1/31/2010 1/31/2012 1/31/2014 1/31/2016 1/31/2018
CHINA PPICHANGE FROM SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO
Jul-19
MANAGING THE FREE FLOATING YUAN
29Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
SCHUMER
RECESSION
PRE LEHMAN EU
CRISIS
CORRUPTION
CAMPAIGN
CURRENCY
BREAK
OOPS
CHINA NOMINAL GDP GROWTH IN US$
CURRENT QUARTER % CHANGE FROM YEAR AGO
30Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
28%
32%
36%
Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16 Mar-18 Mar-20
Q2 19
CRUDE OIL
31Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jul-19
COPPER VS SOYBEANS
32Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative Of Future Results.
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18
Copper SoybeansJul-19