Upload
korralf
View
243
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
1/568
McKinsey & Company, Inc.
Tom CopelandTim Koller
Jack Murrin
MEASURING & MANAGING
THE VALUE OF COMPANIES
Third Edition
JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC.
New York Chichester Weinheim Brisbane Singapore Toronto
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
2/568
McKinsey & Company, Inc.
2005
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
3/568
336.713.003.12(075) 65.262.17
73
, . .
., ., .73 : . 3- ., .
. / . . .: , 2005. 576 : .ISBN 5-901028-98-8 (.)
?
? , , ? : , . . 10 , , , . . , . : , , ,
( , , , . .). ,
, . ( ) , , .
336.713.003.12(075) 65.262.17
. .
1990,1994, 2000 by McKinsey & Company, Inc.All rights reserved. ,
John Wiley & Sons, Inc. , ISBN 5-901028-98-8 (.) . ., , 2005ISBN 0-471-36190-9 (.) .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
4/568
xiv 1
1. ? 11
12 13
15
17
19
, , 20
23
2. , 25
, -
EG: 27
1: -
EG EG 29
2: 30 31
EG 35
EG 37 EG 41 44
45
EG 46 3: , 48
49
....50 51
52
54
55
58
V
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
5/568
vi
3. 60
61 62
65
67
68
4. , 69
- 72
: -
: 74
: 84
: 87
88
5. 89
91
92
95
99
104
6. 105
108: 109
110:
: 112
:
, 113
115
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
6/568
yii
120
- 121
123
125
128
129
7. , 130 131
ex ante 132
expost 134 136
137
138
139 1:
2: 141
3:
4: , 144
5: 145
147
150
: 8. 153
154 156
159
- 166
169
174
176
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
7/568
viii
, ,
177
, ,
178
179
9. 180 18 1
183
(NOPLAT) 187
(ROIC) 189
() 190
192
ROIC 196
198
199
/
201
-
202
203
204
207
208
210
HEINEKEN: 212
10. 228 229
1: 231
232
237
238
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
8/568
jx
2: 238 239
24 1
242
3: - () 24 4
? 254
() 256
HEINEKEN: 260
11. 264
265
266
( ) 267
269 - 270
271
272 274
275
277
278
HEINEKEN: 283
12. 301 ,
303
,
306 307
?...
cROIC 309
? 310
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
9/568
X
312
314
316
, 319
320
HEINEKEN: 323
13. 325
-
328
329
HEINEKEN: 331
14. 337
338
- 339
341
- 344
-
350
351
352
15.0 354
,, , 355
357
359 3
364
365
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
10/568
xi
16. 366 -
367 ? 369
370
372
375
17. 376 1: 378
380
382
2: 384
3:
387
4: 388
389
394
18.0 395 396
397 398
402 404
406
407
411
416
19. 417
419
,
422
424
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
11/568
xii
425
, 427 :
430 432
434 438 440
441
20. 442
444
448 451
455
460
464 ( ) ( ) 466 ( ) 467
469
473
475
21. 476
477
478 479 480
482
48 5 486
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
12/568
490, 491, 496
498 500
22. 501
-
508
: TransAmerica 512
516 522
- 523 524 525
527
.
528
529
531
-
534
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
13/568
McKinsey & Company, McKinsey . , , - .
McKinsey & Co., Inc. ; 1926 . McKinsey , , , , , , ,, , , .
McKinsey . McKinsey
-. - - , .. : Financial Theory andCorporate Policy ( ) Managerial Finance ( ). ( ) .
McKinsey, . McKinsey - Stern Stewart & Co., . - .
McKinsey & Company, . , Bankers Trust Corp.
, .
McKinsey & Company.
XIV
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
14/568
1990 .,
. , , .
, , , .
: ,
, , , . , , . , -.
. ,
, , 1980- ;
1990-; 1998 . - ; , , .
, .
( ),
, . , . , , . , . , , .
1
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
15/568
2
, . . . ,
, . /, , , . . . . . , .
: , , , , . , . , . , , , .
McKinsey. . , , . , , .
,
. ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
16/568
3
, . ,
, . , , .
, , . , , , , . , , , .
. .
. , -, , . ,
. , .
. , /, , , , . , - , , , -
. ; ; . . , , .
, . .
, .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
17/568
4
, , , . .
, , , , , .
. , . , .
, , . , .
, , , , . , .
- Le Figaro : , , ?.
, : !. , , , (Merton Miller) (Franco Modigliani) Dividend Policy, Growth and Valuation of Shares (, ), 1961 . Journal of Business. , . , (Alfred Rappaport) - ( ALCAR)
(Joel Stern) Stern, Stewart & . , , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
18/568
*
5
. . , , . .
(. 17) . 1 ,
. 2
, , , . 3 , , . 4 ( ), , . 5 . 6 , . , 7 , ().
(. 813) .
, . , , , . (Heineken), , .
(. 1422) . -, , ,, . : , ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
19/568
6
. , , .
10 , , . , , . . -, . . , : , ; , .
Excel. , . : /, , . . (, , , .) , 1-800-225-5945
www.WileyValuation.com.
, ,
http://www.wileyvaluation.com/http://www.wileyvaluation.com/8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
20/568
7
, . , , , - , McKinsey, .
. McKinsey 1980- , . ( McKinsey) . , . .
1 ?. .
McKinsey . ,
. McKinsey .
, .
Heineken, . 6 , , . 19. , 15. 16. 20. 22, . Excel, .
, , , , , . , ', , , , , , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
21/568
8
, .
10 . , , , , ,
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
, , , , , , .
, ,
. , .
, , , , . , . .
McKinsey , .
. Wiley,
, Publications Development Company .
, , , . , .
..,..,
. .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
22/568
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
23/568
1 ? 77
2, 25
3 60
4
, 69
5 89
6 705
7, 730
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
24/568
1
?
,
. , , , , , . , , , ,
.
, , , , . . , , , -
, .
11
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
25/568
12 .
, , .
. . , , , , , . .
, , ,
, , , , ,
. , . -, .-, , , , , , .
2000 . Vodafone AirTouch
Mannesmann, 1. , . , . .
1. 1980- .
2.
, .1 Mannesmann ,
, Vodafone AirTouch.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
26/568
1. ? 13
3. , , 1982 .
4. , , , .
1982 . .
. , , . , , .
,
, , Kohlberg, Kravis, and Roberts (KKR) Clayton, Dubilier, andRice. 1981 . 2328 / 99 2. 1988 .
381 / 4049. . , . ; - RJR Nabisco 31,4 .
, 1 ., 1984 . KKR Wometco. , . 1980- , RJR Nabisco.
, ,
., -
2 G. Baker and G. Smith. The New Financial Capitalists: Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and theCreation of Corporate Value. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1998.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
27/568
14 .
, . , BFGoodrich UniRoyal , Goodyear GenCorp ( General Tire) .
. 1984 . , , , , . , ,
, , . 1990-
, . , , . . , , , .
? . , , .
, , , , .
, . , . : , , , .
. , -
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
28/568
1. ? 15
( ). , , , , , .
, : , . , , , - (, ).
, , 1980- ,
.
. ,
, , , , . , .
1970- .
. , , , , . ,
; . 1976 . 3,
3 M.Jensen and W. Meckling. Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs, andOwnership Structure //Journal of Financial Economics. 1976. October. P. 305360.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
29/568
16 .
, , ( ), , .
, - , , -
. 1980- .
, , , , , , . , 1982 .,
,
, , , . . 1.1, 1998 . 45% () .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
30/568
1. .? 17
(,
, ). , , . 1990- 48% ( , 1983 . , , ).
,
. . , . , .
1980- , . , , .
, () . , California Public Employees Retirement System ( ; ), 130 ., .
1.1,
, 1996 . 58 76% . , (8%) (3%), : .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
31/568
18 .
1.1. , 1996 .
, . , , , , .
Deutsche Telekom, Deutschland Aktienland ( ). , , .
1.2 ( , , ). 1975 . 25 , 12% , 1995 . 69 , 26% . . -
, , . , , , . , .
1.2.
. %
225 5
1130 25
2618 58
546 12
. %
8 12
36 54
16 24
7 10
. % :
9 7
61 47
10 8
49 38
. %
12 17
21 29
2 3
38 52
. %
8 2
105 30
107 31
130 37
. %
43 4
142 14
784 76
61 6
. %
112 10
538 46
360 31
155 13
: Investment Company Inst itute.
: New York Stock Exchange Share ownership ( ).
1975
19801985
1990
1995
( )
25,3
30,247,0
51,4
69,3
( %)
11,9
13,520,1
21,1
26,3
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
32/568
1. ? 19
,
, , . ( , 95 91% ). , , .
, , . .
1990 ., , . 2035 . . , , 2035 . 34,1% 19,7% 1996 . !
, . , , () , , , . , . , : ,
.
, , ; . , . , 4%, 3103 , (
) 13%. , 1974 1993 . 7,4%, 2068 . , , -
2 - 1719
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
33/568
20 .
9,1%, 1706 , 7%.
, , ,
, , , , . , ,
. , , .
, ,
, .
, ,
, , 1980- , .
, . . , ( , ), , , -,
. , , ?... . .
, -
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
34/568
1.2.
() . 1.2,
20%. 1975 . , , . , .
1994 1997 . McKinsey(McKinsey Global Institute) : . , , ,
, (. . 1.3). , , ? , . (. . , , ) , . 1.4, 1974 1993 . , .
, . . , .
.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
35/568
22 .
1.3.
1.4. ,1974 1993 .
1>
9 , 1 %
" .21 .31 ( ).
: McKinsey Global Insti tute.
" ( )
, .
: McKinsey Global Insti tute.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
36/568
1. ? 23
, ,
, , . , , , .
, , , , . ? , . . , ,
, ,
. , , . - , .
, .
, , . 1.5 1.6. , , , , , , .
, , .
, . ? , (,
), .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
37/568
24 .
1.5.
1.6.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
38/568
2
,
1 , . , , ; , , .
,
, , , . , , .
, . , , , , , ,
25
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
39/568
26 .
. , , . , , .
, .
. ,
. , , . : , , . .
. , , . ; ,
; . ,
,
. , , , . , , , .
, , , . .
, .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
40/568
2. , 27
EG:
1:
1999 . EG
. 10
Consumerco,
EG, , , ,
,
. , EG
.
EG
1998 . EG 3,5 .
,
: Consumerco, Foodco Woodco.
Consumerco
. ( 40%)
,
() .
Woodco
.
, . - ()
. Woodco
. 1999 .
, EG
,
, .
,
Woodco
. Woodco
.
. ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
41/568
28 .
. , , . Woodco , . ,
. , . Woodco , , , .
Foodco, EG, . , . Foodco , . EG, Foodco , . 1999 . Foodco , .
2. 1. EG: , 1998 .( .)
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
42/568
2. , 29
.
, ,
Consumerco EG,
Foodco,
.
Consumerco, Foodco Woodco EG
: (),
(Finco)
(Newsco).
EG ,
. - 1970- .
, EG (. . 2.1).
EG
EG
. ,
10%.
, EG
, .
.
,
.
,
Consumerco.
. ,
EG , , (.. ).
,
EG .
,
. , EG
.
EG
,
Consumerco.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
43/568
30 .
, . EG . , , , EG .
2:
EG. , , EG .
, , EG . ,
, - . , , , , . , .
, , , . . -,
, , . -, , . , , , .
EG , (. . 2.2). EG. EG (. .
), ; , . EG ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
44/568
2. , 31
2.2.
EG.
EG
.
, ,
.
, , EG
. , EG
, .
, EG
, ,
,
.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
45/568
32 .
2.3. EG:
, , . , EG , ,
(. . 2.3). EG , :
(. . 2.4).
, EG. 1992 1997 . EG
2.4. EG: (/ ), 1998 .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
46/568
2. , 33
Woodco. , EG
, . ,
EG, ,
, EG . , , EG
. , EG ,
. , . EG
, , , . , , , EG
. .
EG, , Consumerco , (35% ). .
Woodco . Y Foodco,
, , - .
, , EG .
: EG, (. . 2.5). , EG
Consumerco, Woodco Foodco
Consumerco. , EG. EG , . ,
, , , , EG Consumerco
, .
, , EG ,
, . , EG,
. , . , . ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
47/568
34 .
" .21 , ,
.3) .4* ROIC .
2.5. EG: 31 1998 . ( , ROIC, .)
. - , , , , , , , 2.6. , EG .
, , , . , EG , . , ,EG ,
.
. , EG , , , ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
48/568
2. , 35
1 9 9 4 .
] I 1 I I I I I I I I I
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
V _ ) 2.6. EG:
EG , .
EG
- EG
. ,
. , , , . . - . .
, . ; .
EG, a , , , . 2. 1.
, EG .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
49/568
36 .
2.1. EG:
( , , .)
. -, , , -, Foodco ( ) , EG . -, EG , Consumerco. , , , EG 25%.
, , EG , , -, . , 2.2. EG , 10%. , , , , EG. , , , . , , EG , , , . : , EG , , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
50/568
2. ,
2.2. EG: -( , , .)
, , . , Consumerco, 20%, EG, - Consumerco. , Foodco
,
, . : . Foodco , . Woodco, ,
. EG (, ) - .
.
Consumerco ,
. Foodco , . Woodco EG,
, . , , , .
EG
EG ( ), , . . ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
51/568
38 .
2.7. EG: ( %)
1% , 1 . ,
2.7, , . Foodco .
Foodco , . ,
. Woodco , , , . Consumerco
: Consumerco
.
. ,
, EG . , EG
-, , EG
, .
, EG .
Consumerco, ,
.
, Consumerco ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
52/568
2. , 39
EG . , , .
Consumerco , . , . , , , .
Consumerco , , . , , , , .
, , - . , 1 .
,
, Consumerco ,
, 25%, 2.8.
Wooclco, EG,
,
. Woodco
,
2.8. EG: Consumerco ( .)
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
53/568
40 .
. , , ,
. , Woodco
, , ,
. ,
; ,
, Woodco . , ,
. . ,
, ,
, . , ,
.
Foodco , , ,
. . , . , ,
Foodco , . Consumerco, Foodco,
. Foodco
. , Foodco
,
, , .
, Foodco
, .
, Foodco, /
,
, Foodco EG .
. EG
. ,
. , 50%.
, EG 3,6 .,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
54/568
2. , 41
2.3. EG:
( , , .)
Consumerco
Foodco
WoodcoNewsco
Propco
Finco
( %)
1750
300
200
175
125
25
-425
2150
-300
1850
2400
- 5 5 0
-23
-
2115
275
600
200
150
35
-425
2950
-300
2650
2400
+250
+10
2640
300
800
215
160
35
-225
3925
-300
36252400
+1225
+51
( %)
+25
+9
+33
+8
+7
0
+33
+3 7
50% (. . 2.3). , EG , (
, , Foodco). , EG . EG . , , .
EG
EG : (1) ( , ); (2) , ; (3) ;(4) .
: EG , .
, EG.
EG , (, , /, / , ). ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
55/568
42 .
- , , , EG.
, , , , ( , EG ). Consumerco .
, , , , . EG, , Fooclco, . , , , Foodco. ,
, . Foodco : , . , Foodco, , , .
EG, , . , ,
, . , , . , , , . , .
EG , - . , , .
, EG , , . EG .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
56/568
2. , 43
, ,
EG ,
. , Consumerco, EG,
, .
Consumerco. ,
. , , Consumerco
, . Consumerco ,
. , Consumerco.
Consumerco .
Consumerco
. , ,
, Consumerco, .
, . , , ,
Consumerco 3,2 . , EG ( 2 .).
Consumerco, , ,
EG 2,6 . Consumerco EG, ,
Consumerco.
EG,
. , Foodco , ,
, . , Foodco,
Foodco. Foodco
. Foodco
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
57/568
44 .
2.4. EG: ( .)
. ,, EG Foodco, EG , .
Woodco , . Woodco, . , . Woodco 1218 , . 18 EG . , Woodco . Woodco , EG , . Woodco
, , .
2.4 , , EG . , , Woodco, EG , .
,
, . , . Consumerco , , , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
58/568
2. , 45
,
. , Consumerco , .
, , : , Consumerco.
. , . : 5 00 1 .,
Consumerco 800 ., . , , . , .
, , ,
EG, . ,
. , ,
.
EG , . EG Standard & Poor (S&P); .
, . , , , .
EG , . Consumerco, , . ,
, EG . ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
59/568
46 .
EG , , . .
EG,
, . EG . , EG 500 . . EG , 200 . ( , 40%).
EG
EG , . 2.5, , . , EG . 2.6 2.9 EG . , .
2.5. EG:
Consumerco
Foodco
Woodco ; ,
Finco
Newsco 50%;
,
,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
60/568
2. , 47
2.6. EG: ( , , .)
Consumerco
Foodco
Woodco
Newsco
Propco
Finco
1750
300
200
175
125
25
-425
2150
-300
1850
0
1850
2900
350
800
190
160
45
-225
200
4420
-300
4120
800
4920
( %)
+66
+17
+300 /
+9
+28
+80
+47
^=+ 10 6
+123
+166
Consumerco, : , , , , .
Woodco,
, .
Fooclco .
.
,
, EG , , .
EG, 500 . .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
61/568
48 .
2.9. EG: ( .)
EG , , , .
EG.
. , .
3: ,
EG .
, EG . , EG , . 1999 . EG
40 . , EG, .
, . ,
EG, , , , , . , ,
, . , , , , EG,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
62/568
2. , 49
. ,
. ,
EG .
1. .
2. .
3. EG , .
4. .
5. EG.
6. EG.
( . 6 ).
, EG,
, -,
. , .
,
. , EG
.
EG . , EG
. EG .
,
. , , ,
, . . , , EG
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
63/568
50 .
, ,
EG . , ,
EG , , EG .
-. . ,
- , , , , . ,
: . , . ,
, . , , . , .
,
. ( ), - , , . , , , . ,
, (ROIC)*,
* - , : ROIC return on invested capital ( ), economic
profit ( ), PV present value ( ), MVA market value added ( ), WACC weighted average cost ofcapital( ) . . , ( ) . . .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
64/568
2. , 51
, . , , , {). , :
, , (
) ( ) ( . . 3 4). , EG , . ,
.,
, ,
, . , , . , , .
,
. ,
.
,
, EG . . - , -
. , ,
3-1719
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
65/568
52 .
. ,
. , ,
.
, - EG , .
,
.
,
, ,
.
EG.
,
.
EG, ,
. ,
. -,
,
. -,
EG
() .
, , , EG ,
. , .
. , ,
, , ,
EG. ,
,
.
, .
.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
66/568
2. , 53
, EG
. , 1980- , Woodco,
. ,
. , ,
,
. ,
,
,
.
, ,
,
.
:
, EG,
, EG ,
. , ,
,
, .
EG -
,
. ,
. -
, .
EG
EG
.
. ,
EG , .
, .
, EG
; , .
,
,
EG . , EG
. ,
, .
, ,
, -
;
, . ,
. , EG
, ?
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
67/568
54 .
. EG , . , , . , ; - , , .
, -. . V . -,
, . -, , . EG . , EG, . , , . EG, , , .
, EG , .
- , EG . , , .
, EG , . : , , , EG . , , , ,
, . , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
68/568
2. , 55
EG , . , ; , , , , , . , , EG. , .
, EG , , , . . , , . , , . , ,
. , EG - () (. . 2.7). , - , .
. ( ) EG
. , EG , , . EG . , , , , , .
, ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
69/568
56 .
2.7. EG: -
, .
:
;
;
;
.
.
. :
,
,
, : (1)
; (2) (,
),
,
;
,
,
,
,
, EG
,
,
;
, EG.
. EG,
. :
, ,
;
EG;
, ,
.
, . , . , , ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
70/568
. 2.7 ()
2. , 57
. , ,
, .
:
;
-;
, -
;
-.
. .
: ;
EG;
,
;
;
EG;
;
EG;
EG.
.
:
;
;
;
;
EG ,
.
:
EG ;
EG ,
( );
EG .
, , . , -.
.
. . 58
EG . , EG , : .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
71/568
58 .
. 2.7 ()
.
.
.
.
.
,
-. ,
.
, :
, , ;
( );
;
.
/
:
, ;
,
;
;
( ) ;
.
, :
;
;
, ;
.
, . EG, - . , . ,
. EG,
: -,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
72/568
2. , 59
; -, ,
, , , - ; -, .
. , . . ,
.
, EG, . . , , , , , . 1, - .
, , . . , , , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
73/568
3
, . , 4, ,
. , .
. , . - . , . , ,
. , .
60
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
74/568
3. 61
. , , ,
. ( , , ,
, ), , , - (, ).
,
18%. , , , 10%. , , - .
, . 14% , , .
, , ( ), . . (. . 3.1).
, . 800 . .
, , .
3.1. :
11) ROIC .2)
WACC .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
75/568
3.1. :
, . , . , .
. , , . 3.1
. , . , .
, . ? ?
, , , , 3.2. , ,
. - , , . , , .
- , . , , - . ,, (
" ),
62 .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
76/568
3. 63
3.2. :
: , , , (.. 3.3). , , .
, , , . . . ,
. , .
, . .
3.3.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
77/568
64 .
3.4.
( . .)
( ), . . 10%. 58 . 62 .
, , . , ,
, ? ?
, . . . , , , ( , , ). 3.4 1.
1 . 8.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
78/568
3. 65
, , ,
. . , , . . , . ?
, , , . ,
. :
. ? : , .
( ), , , , .
( , ), ( ) . ,
. ,
, , .
, , . , , , , , , , , .
?
. , , , . , . , 20 . .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
79/568
66 .
, , 7 . . , , 13 . ,
. , , - ? , . ,
, . .
, , , 32 . . , .
, , 20 ., 32 . 10% , . , ,
. , ,
10%. , , 10%.
., , , . , , , , . , , , .
, , , , ,
? , . , , ? . ( , , ), ,
. , , . . ,
. , ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
80/568
3. 67
, . , . , , ,
, , .
, , . .
, . , -, : . , . .
, , .
, , . , ,
. , , .
, , , .-, , - .
, , : , . ,
( ), . , ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
81/568
68 .
, , , ,
. , . ,
, , .
, , , . .
1. , .
2. , (. . , ).
3. , ( ).
4. ,
, () .
5. , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
82/568
4
,
3 , . , : TRS (
), DCF ( ),
( )
1
, EVA ( ), CFROI(, , , ), ROIC( ),EPS( ), , . , , , , : .
, ,
. , .
1 , - (EVA), Stern Stewart.
69
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
83/568
70 .
. ., .
( ) ( ).-, , , . -, . ,
. .
, , (. . 4.1). , .
4.1 : .
, , .
- .
4 . 1 .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
84/568
4. , 71
. , .
, , .
,
, . , .
. , , ( ) ( ).
, , (, , ). ,
. , , .
, 4.1, .
, .
, - (
).
- , .
, ( , ). ( ) .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
85/568
72 .
-
. .
1. ?
2. ( )?
3. , ?
4. ?
: 2
(TRS) .
,
, .
.
, . , , ,
. . , .
(
2 :]?. DobbsandT. Roller. The ExpectationsTreadmill // McKinsey Quarterly. 1998. 3. P. 32-43.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
86/568
4. , 73
TRS )
, . 400 , 40% .
, ( , TRS , ).
, 1990- , , . , . - , , .
, , . , , , TRS . , , , ., , , .
. , , . , . . ,
; , . ,
- . , .
. , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
87/568
74 .
, .
( ),, , . : , .
, , , . ,
, . , ,
. ,
, . , . , 50%. , 10%, - . 1996 ., Credit Suisse , 20%, 3 .
:
(MVA) , Stern Stewart
Fortune
MVA. ( ) . /
, (),
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
88/568
4. , 75
( ) .
/ , , . , , : . , .
.
. , , ; , . /, . , . ,
. TRS MVA,
Sears Wal-Mart. 31 1997 . Sears TRS22% , Wal-Mart 5% . , Sears ? ?
/ Sears Wal-Mart 4.2.
31 1997 . Wal-Mart ( ) 101,3 ., 32,1 . MVA 69,2 . . Sears, 42,5 . 30,7 ., MVA 11,8 . /: Wal-Mart 3,2, Sears 1,4. , , Wal-Mart, 3,20 ., , Sears, 1,4 .
Wal-Mart , / . , . Sears , /. , , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
89/568
76 .
4.2. : Sears Wal-M art,31 1997 . ( , , .)
, . , , .
TRS / ,
10 . 4.3
. .
4.3. :
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
90/568
4. , 77
1 . ,, The Gap ( ),
Kroger Carrefour. 1997 . . 3, . Great Atlantic and Pacific, Kmart, Karstadt. , ,
,
/ , . ( 1) , ( ) .
2 4 . 2 , . , , Sears, Rite Aid, , Whitbread.
, / . ,
, / . , , , / .
4, , . Wal-Mart Nordstrom. /, . . , , . , . : , .
/,
, . 4.4 , , (. . ). The Gap, Wal-Mart. The Gap
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
91/568
78 .
4.4. , 31 1997 .
, Wal-Mart , , . ? , . .
, , , . : . , . ,
. .
1. , . .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
92/568
4. , 79
4 .1 . ( .)
, , , 3.
2. , , , .
, , , , .
. , . 4.1 . , :
? , ,
, . , , , . 1999 .
Allianz 70% PIMCO Advisors, , 3,3 . , , Allianz , 1,8% , PIMCO, Merrill Lynch 1997 . Mercury AssetManagement 3% . , ? ? , , PIMCO Mercury . PIMCO , , , Mercury. . , , ,
.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
93/568
80 .
, , / (, 10) , ,
. , , , , , .
4.2 ( ,
). , ,
, , V3 . , .
, ? , , , , . ,
, .
, 10%, , (323 .) 50% , (212 .).
4.2 . ( .)
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
94/568
4. , 81
: , , , ,
, . , , . , ( , ), .
, , .
. , , , .
: , () . , , , , .
? , , . (,
, ),
.
, ., , 10% . , , 10%, ,
10%. , .
,
10%, , ( ). , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
95/568
82 .
10%. . , , ,
. , ,
, . / (/) ,
, .
, 4.3. - , . .
, , , 10%. , . , ,
1500 ., 1000 . , / 15, 10.
,
. , 25 . , 5 . , 50 .
20%, 10%.
4.3. ( .)
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
96/568
4-1719
4. , 83
, / 4:
g ;r () ;k .
/ .
:
:
, . . , , 5 8%, 20 10%? ,
. , / 10, 1000 ., . , , , , .
, , .
-, .
. ,
- /, .
4 . 12.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
97/568
84 .
, , , .
, .
, , , , .
:
, . , . ( )
. ,
, . , .
, , . , . , : ( ) . ,
. ,
. 4.4
. , . ( , 10%.) , ,
, , . , , , . ROIC .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
98/568
4. , 85
4.4.
: = 100; = 10%; 25
ROIC = .
Heineken, ( ):
. Heineken ( %):
, , Heineken. . ,
. : , . .
Sears Wal-Mart, 4.5, ROIC
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
99/568
86 .
4.5. : Sears Wal-Mart
1995 1997 . ( 1995 . Sears Dean Witter Discover Allstate Insurance.) Wal-Mart 12,7% , 13,1% , , 7,8 8,2% Sears. ( 9%.) , Wal-Mart
. , Sears Wal-Mart , ?
. Sears , . Wal-Mart, , . , , . .
, , . 4.6 Sears Wal-Mart, , . , , . , ( , ). , . ,
Wal-Mart , Sears, , . Sears, . , , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
100/568
4. , 87
4.6. : Sears Wal- Mart
, , ;
. , , Heineken: ROIC , , - .
.
:
, , , , , , . . - , , .
, . . , , . , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
101/568
88 .
.
. . .
: , , , . , , , .
, . (ROIC ) , , ( , ). , , , . .
. , . - .
,
, - . , , . ,
. , . , ,
, , . , ,
.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
102/568
5
1 1974 . The Wall Street Journal , ,
:
, -, , -
, , . , , , ... - , , , .
1990 ., , , ,
, . . , , , .
.
89
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
103/568
90 .
-. , CS First Boston, , ,
: 1994 ,
CS First Boston... , . , , , , , , .
, - -. , , ,
1.
, ,
. , .
.
1. ( ) ,
, .
2. ( ) .
3. , .
4. , .
, . : , , , , .
1A.Jackson. The How and Why of EVA at CS First Boston //Journal of Applied CorporateFinance. Spring 1996. Vol. 9. 1. P. 98-103.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
104/568
5. 91
4 , , , . : 15 1997 . Intel 19% . Intel 6,3% , 23%. ( 15 )
, . , , , .
, (TRS)
: ( ), , (
) . ,
Zacks Research System, , .
, , . 5.1 . R2
[ . ,
] TRS. , R2 40%.
5 .1 . TRS , 19921998 .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
105/568
92 .
, , ( ) , . , (. . ).
, . 340 , , (. .
) . , .
(, 9 13% 2 6%). . 5.2. ,
5.2.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
106/568
5. 93
( ). , / ,
, . , .
, , /
, . 5.3 , . / R2 46%.
, . 5.3 , , ,
, . , . ( . 5.2.) 340 / . 5.1,
. ( ), , .
5.3. /
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
107/568
94 .
5.1. /
: (
R2) . . .
, 31 . , Value LineInvestment Survey, (WACC). 5.4, .
, , , , . , , (
5.4. : 31 , 1999 .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
108/568
5. 95
), .
, , - ? , , .
:
. , , . , , Hoechst, , 1997 . 50 . 1996 . Hoechst - , . .
, :
( ) ( %)
1995 1709 -57
1996 2114 1324 -37
1997 1343 377 -72
, ? - , .
. , , . , , , . * (
, ) * ( , ), .
* : - LIFO (last in, first out), - FIFO(first in, first out). , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
109/568
96 .
5.5.
. , , , .
, .
, .
(
) , , . , , , , ,
, , ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
110/568
5. 97
(. . 5.5). , (1982 .), ,
2
. , , . , , , ( ) , , 40 . ,
() , , . , , , -
. , 3.
, . ,
, . , 4. 1400 , , , , , , , , . 5.6. , :
, , ;
, -, ,
2 G. Biddle andF. Lindahl. Stock Price Reactions to LIFO Adoptions: The Association BetweenExcess Returns and LIFO Tax Savings // Journal of Accounting Research. 1982. Vol. 53.P. 548 -551.
3 /, 31 2000 . [, 2001 . , / . , .]
. Lindenberg and M. Ross. To Purchase or to Pool: Does It Matter?// Journal of AppliedCorporate Finance. Summer 1999. Vol. 12. 2. P. 32-4 7.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
111/568
98 .
5.6.
, , 5;
, , , , .
: , - ,
, . , /. ,
, , . , , ,, , EBITDA ( , , ),
, . 3633 , , , , , , /, EBITDA.
5 , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
112/568
5. 99
Wells Fargo First Interstate Bank 1995 .6
, , Wells , , First Bank System , . Wells Fargo, 400 . . Wells Fargo 3% , , , 20% 10 .
AT&T NCR 1991 . ,
AT&T 500 . , NCR ( NCR ). , , , AT&T 4 . 6 .7 , AT&T
.
, , . , . ,
.
, -, ,
, , . , , 1999 . Amazon.com 23 ., . ( . . 15.)
, , . ,
6. Davis. The Purchase vs. Pooling Controversy: How the Stock Market Responds toGoodwill //Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. Spring 1996. Vol. 9. 1. P. 50-59.
7T. Lys and L. Vincent. An Analysis of Value Destruction in AT&T's Acquisition of NCR //Journal of Financial Economics. 1995. Vol. 39. P. 353-378.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
113/568
1 0 0 .
. : - , ,
.
,
. 20 Fortune 500, 5.2, 9,2% , . BankBoston 20,4%. , . , .
, .
., . ( ), .
5.2. :20 Fortune 500, 1997 .
American GeneralBankBoston
BellAtlanticComerica
DuPontExxon
Ford
Gillette
Hasbro
Hewlett-PackardKellogg
Lockheed Martin
McGraw-HillNordstrom
PPG IndustriesProcter & Gamble
Reynolds MetalsUnited Technologies
Wachovia CorporationXerox
,
5 ( .)
5,789,60
5,70
5,51
5,366,30
9,082,351,733,033,67
7,18
5,92
2,465,514,31
5,505,36
7,67
5,11
(
( .)
54,06
46,97
45,50
60,17
60,0661,19
48,56
50,22
31,50
62,38
49,63
98,50
74,00
30,19
57,1379,81
60,0072,81
81,13
73,88
( %)
10,7
20,4
12,5
9,2
8,910,318,7
4,7
5,54,9
7,4
7,3
8,08,2
9,65,4
9,27,4
9,56,9
9,2
: 12%.
: Co mp ust at.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
114/568
5. J 0 1
5.7. ( 62 )
, .
, 62 8. 5.7, .
, , .
9. 349 ( ) 19751981 ., :
8 Office of the Chief Economist. Institutional Owners, Tender Offers, and Long-Term Investment. Washington, DC: Securities and Exchange Commission, 1985.
9J. McConnell and MuscareUa. Corporate Capital Expenditure Decisions and the Market Value of the Firm //Journal of Financial Economics. 1985. March. P. 399422.
( %)
273 +1,3 76 -1,8
39 +0,4 17 -0,8
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
115/568
1 0 2 .
, , - . ,
, . ( ), , , , . , .
, 10.
634 , :
, ( ) ,
. , , 40 1984 1986 ., , 60% 11. ,
75% , ., ,
, , . 161 , , 19621984 .12 , . , ,
. 10
J. R. Woolridge. Competitive Decline and Corporate Restructuring: Is a Myopic Stock Marketto Blame? //Journal of Applied Corporate Finance. Spring 1988. Vol. 1. 1. P. 26-36.
11 G. Mercer. A Review of Major Corporate Writeoffs, 1984-86. McKinsey & Co., 1987.12
T. Copeland and W. H. Lee. Exchange Offers and Stock Swaps - New Evidence // FinancialManagement. Autumn 1991. Vol. 20. 3. P. 34-48.
( %)
260 +0,35 168 +0,84 45 +1,20 161 +0,78
634 +0,71
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
116/568
5.
( %):
, ,
, 3,77 8,41
, -1,18 -0,41
, , , . , ,
, , , . , , , ,
.
, . ,
, . ,
, , .
, 30 . , 13. . , , . .
, , . , ,
13 .: R. Ball. The Theory of Stock Market Efficiency: Accomplishments and Limitations //D. Chew, Jr. (ed.). The New Corporate Finance. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1999. P. 35-48.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
117/568
1 0 4 .
, . , -,
. , ,
, . , ,
. . ?
:
. , , . . , , , , .
? , . , , , , , , 5%.
, , ,
, , ( ), . , , , .
, , , , . , , . , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
118/568
6
. ?, ?.
-, : ,
?
?
?
. Making Value Happen, McKinsey, , , -, , , , , , -, , . PerformanceEthics, , .
105
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
119/568
106 .
?
, , , .
, , . , .
- , 1960- ; .
. , .
5%, , 10 . ,
, , , , .
, , . : , ; ,
,
, . , , , , .
, , , , () .
, , ,
, . ? ? -
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
120/568
6. 7
0 - ? ( 3 4 .)
. . : , , . : , , - . , , LloydsTSB Group, 1980- , 1998 . : , 1.
, , . , 1980- Pfizer . 1990-
, Pfizer . , , , .
6.1, , , , . :
1) ;
2) -, ( );
3) , ;
4) , ;
5) , ;
1A. Morgan and P. Bose. Banking on Shareholder Value: An Interview with Sir Brian Pitman,Chairman of Lloyds TSB // McKinsey Quarterly. 1998. Vol. 2. P. 96-105.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
121/568
1 0 8 .
6. 1. ,
6) .
., , . .
, , , . , , , , . , , ,
( ), , .
, , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
122/568
6. 9
:
, , . . Disney, : , , ,
.
, . , , . , , . , : ; ; ; ; . : ?., , .
, , . , , , , . , ( ) ( ).
? , , . , .
1. . ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
123/568
110 .
, 2; .
2. ,
, , -, , -, , .
3. , , , .
,
. , , .
, , .
, ,
.
, - .
,
, . , , , , . .
:
, , -
2 .: . Roller and R. Dobbs. TheExpectations Treadmill // McKinsey Quarterly. 1998. Vol. 3. P. 32-43.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
124/568
6.
6. 1 .
, ,
.
,
, -
-. ,
, ,
-
,
,
-
, . , . , . , , (. . 6.1). ,
, , . , , , ,
.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
125/568
12 .
:
2 , EG Corporation . : ;
; ( ); ( , /); . ,
.
:
, ,, - 3. , , 6.2.
1. 1 -, , , .
2. 2 , -, ,
.
3. 3 ,
, , .
, , , .
, , . -
3. Baghai, S. , and D. White. The Alchemy of Growth: Kickstarting and SustainingGrowth in Your Company. London: Orion Business, 1999.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
126/568
6.
6.2.
, - . , , .
,
, . - ,
, , , . , , , , .
(
), ( ), ( ) ( ). ( ,
, ), ( ), .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
127/568
14 .
: ?. ,
, , . ( ), ( /) ( ,
).
. ,
, , . , , , , .
, , . , , , (, , , , ). . ,, , , ,
.
. , , , , ,
.
, , . ,
. .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
128/568
6. 1 1 5
.
( ), ( , ), (, ), ( , , ), . , . , . ,
, , , , , .
, ,
, , . . -, - , . -, , ( ) . -, -
. ,
, , (, ). (). , , . , . .
1. .
5-1719
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
129/568
116 .
. -, , .
- , , , , . -, , . ,
, .
, , . , . ,
, , .
2. , . -, - ( . 9). , . , - ; , . , . , , (EBIT), ,
, , , . , : , , .
.
. . , - , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
130/568
6. 2.7
, -
, /, , .
3. , . ,
, , , , . , , , . , , , . , , . . , , .
. , : ,, , .
, (, -) . ,
, , , , , . - , , . , , , , .
, - .
, , . ,
, 20 . -
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
131/568
6.3.
118
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
132/568
6. 119
6.4.
20 , , , , .
( , ): , (. . 6.3).
1. . ,
() . , . (. . 6.4): .
, . ,
.2. .
, , .
, , - ;
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
133/568
120 .
,
, . , , .
.
. ( ), .
, , .
, , , , , , - . , , , . ; , , , .
, . . ,
, . ,
, .
. -, - . -, . -, - .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
134/568
6. 121
-
- , . , , - , .
.
, , . , . 100 ., , , . , . , , 124% , .
, , .
, . , ,
.
, .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
135/568
1 2 2 .
-, ,
.
. , ( 3% , ) ( 15%). . , ,
(, , ), - . , .
, , . , (, ) , .
. ,
, . -
, . ,
, -, . ,
, - .
.
, , , . : , - . -, .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
136/568
6. 1 2 3
, - .
, , -
. , , . .
- , , ,
. , , , . , , . -
, .
.
, . , .
, , .
. . , , , . , , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
137/568
1 2 4 .
6.2. -
' ROIC .
, , . , , , ? ,
. , , 6.2.
,
. - -. , , , . , , , ,
. .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
138/568
6. 1 2 5
, . ,
. , , : , . , , .
, , , .
, ,
. . , , , , ., , .
, .
. - , , , , .
. , , , , .
, . , , , , .
, . ;
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
139/568
1 2 6 .
, .
, . , , . ,
, ( ) .
, (
). , ; , , ,
. 6.5 , , , ( ) ( ). , ,
. ( )
, . ,
, , : , , .
6.5.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
140/568
6. 127
, .
, . , . , , , - .
1. : , , .
2. : , , .
3. : , .
, ,
. .
. , , , , (
).
. , , , .
, , , .
, (, ) . , , ( ).
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
141/568
1 2 8 .
. ,
.
, , : , . , , , . ,
, .
1. , , , -.
. ,
.
2. , -, . , ,
.
, . . ,
-, , , . , , , . , .
, . , , , , . ( ,
, , , -
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
142/568
6. 1 2 9
.) , .
, , . , - , ,
; , , . , , , , ,
, . , , , ? .
, , .
-, , , ( ).
, , , , . .
, , , .
, , . , , . ,
.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
143/568
7
,
( , ) . , , ,
(. . ), , , .
, , , . -, 1800- , . . , 1900-.
: 1960- , 1980- , , , 1990- . -
130
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
144/568
7. , 1 3 1
, , , (, ) . .
, .
. , , , (, Starwood), . , ; , , , , , , . , 1970- , .
, . ,
.
, , , . , , .
, , , , . , , , , ( ). , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
145/568
1 3 2 .
, , , .
: . , , : .
: , . , , , .
. ex ante, , , ().
, : , , , , . ex post, , , .
ex ante
7.1 .
: 20% 35% . , . , , .
, . , , . , , , .
, , , ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
146/568
7. , 1 3 3
7.1.
, , . : . , ex ante 500 ., 1996 1998 . : - ,
90% . ,
, . , , , . -, ( ), 42% , 58% .
? , ( ).
. - , .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
147/568
134 .
, 98% . , , , , -,
. . ,
- ( 10%), . , , , , , . : , , , ; , ;
. . ,
, /, . , -,
, , .
expost
. ? 1980-
McKinsey 116 19721983 . Fortune 200 Financial Times 150. , . . , General Mills 47 ,
. , 61% 23%
. 97 , , (45%)
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
148/568
7. , 1 3 5
, 1. - , 14%.
ex ante , / . 23
92%.
13 , , 8 , 2. . 829 , (80%), , . 10 18% , S&P 500. , ,
35%. ,
, . ? . , . , , , , , . ,
, . ,
, .
, , / ,
. ,
1 , 10% -. , - - .
2 P. Anslinger and T. Copeland. Growth through Acquisitions: A Fresh Look // HarvardBusiness Review. 1996. January/February.
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
149/568
1 3 6 .
( ), .
? , , , , . .
? : (1) ;(2) ; (3) ; (4) . , . , . , ,
, .
,
, . , . , ,
, , . , , ,
, , . ,
- . ,
, . , . ,
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
150/568
7. , 1 3 7
-.
; , . *. . . - 500 ., - .
- 225 . , 275 . . ( .) - .
, - . , - . , , .
, , .
, , . ,
* . ( . ouvepyia : , , ) , , ( ) , ,
. () . . .
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
151/568
1 3 8 .
, , . ,
, , .
, . , .
. , , - . ! , ( , , , , )?
, , : . ,
7. 1. /
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
152/568
7. , 1 3 9
. - . , , , , . , , , -, , . , . ,
. 7.1 . , , .
. , ,
, . , , , .
1:
, ,
, . :
1) /;
2) ( ), /;
3) . - , , . , .
, -
8/3/2019 mckinsey Valuation measuring the value of companies Tim Copeland, Tim Koller, Jack Murrin
153/568
1 4 0 .
. , , .
-. -, , .-, , , . . , , . , , , , .
. , . , . , , - , , , . , .
.
, , . , . . : , , , , . ,
. -
, .