MC2 Simulation of Blue Mtns Ecoregion, ORJohn Kim

USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station & WWETAC

David ConklinCommon Futures, LLC

Becky KernsUSFS Pacific Northwest Research Station

Jessica HalofskyUniversity of Washington

G. Stephen (Bear) PittsOregon State University

Ray DrapekUSFS Pacific Northwest Research Station

Michelle DayOregon State University

MC2 Dynamic Vegetation Model

Biogeochemistry

Biogeography Fire

MAPSS biogeography

MonthlyTime step

Clim

ate

Soils

Elev

atio

n

Hyd

rolo

gyC

arb

on

Veg

etat

ion

Fire

Simulates biogeochem. response of plant func. types to climate change

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1

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-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

ΔT

(°C

)

ΔP

Blue Mtns Ecoregion Future ScenariosHistorical Average (1979-2008) to Future Average (2071-2100)

ΔT v. ΔP

“Wet”: NORESM1-M RCP8.5

“Hot”: HADGEM2-ES RCP8.5

“Reference”: CSIRO-MK360 RCP8.5

“Cool”: MRI-CGCM3 RCP8.5

GCM data were

selected to

capture range of

variability among

GCM’s;

downscaled to

30 arcsec (800m)

for the Blues.

ΔT ΔP

HAD 3.0°C (5.5°F) -1%

CSI 2.6°C (4.7°F) 2%

NOR 2.3°C (4.1°F) 19%

MRI 1.4°C (2.6°F) 2%

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T (°

C)

Year

Blue Mtns Ecoregion: Temperature Projections

HADGEM2-ES RCP8.5

CSIRO-MK360 RCP8.5

NORESM1-M RCP8.5

MRI-CGCM3 RCP8.5

Historical

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DJF MAM JJA SON

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(m

m)

Season

Projected Average Seasonal PrecipitationBlue Mountain Ecoregion, 2071-2100

HADGEM2-ES RCP8.5

CSIRO-MK360 RCP8.5

NORESM1-M RCP8.5

MRI-CGCM3 RCP8.5

Historical (1979-2008)

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NP

P (

gC m

-2 y

r-1

)

Year

NPP

Historical

MRI-CGCM3 RCP8.5

CSIRO-MK360 RCP8.5

HADGEM2-ES RCP8.5

NORESM1-M RCP8.5

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Fore

st C

arb

on

(gC

m-2

)

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Forest Carbon

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# Fi

res

Sim

ula

ted

(yr

-1)

Year

Fire Activity

Historical (1979-2008)

CSIRO-MK360RCP8.5 (2071-2100)

“Reference”

I-84 Highway

National Forest

City (clockwise from top: Pendleton, La Grande, Baker City Bend, Prineville)

State Boundary

Subalpine forestCool, moist forestDry forestPonderosa pine, xericWoodlandShrublandHot dry shrublandC3 grasslandC3/C4 grassland

MC2 Vegetation Type

HADMGEM2-ESRCP8.5 (2071-2100)

“Hot”

Historical (1979-2008)

Subalpine forestCool, moist forestDry forestPonderosa pine, xericWoodlandShrublandHot dry shrublandC3 grasslandC3/C4 grassland

MC2 Vegetation Type

MRI-CGCM3RCP8.5 (2071-2100)

“Cool”

Historical (1979-2008)

Subalpine forestCool, moist forestDry forestPonderosa pine, xericWoodlandShrublandHot dry shrublandC3 grasslandC3/C4 grassland

MC2 Vegetation Type

NORESM1-MRCP8.5 (2071-2100)

“Wet”

Historical (1979-2008)

Subalpine forestCool, moist forestDry forestPonderosa pine, xericWoodlandShrublandHot dry shrublandC3 grasslandC3/C4 grassland

MC2 Vegetation Type

No. of Projections Resulting in Vegetation Type ShiftHistorical (1979-2008) to Future (2071-2100)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

HISTORICAL

MRI-CGCM3

NORESM1-M

CSIRO-MK360

HADGEM2-ES

Proportion of Ecoregion

Clim

ate

Pro

ject

ion

(R

CP

8.5

)

Bluebunch wheatgrass - Sandberg bluegrass

Bluebunch wheatgrass - Sandberg bluegrass

Salt desert shrub, upland

Wyoming big sagebrush, without juniper

Wyoming big sagebrush, with juniper

Ponderosa pine xeric

Douglas-fir dry

Grand fir, cool, moist

Subalpine fir, cold/dry

Veg Type Shift Historical (1979-2008) to Future (2071-2100)

“Hot”

“Cool”

grassland shrubland forest

grassland shrubland forest

C3/C4 grassland

C3 grassland

Hot dry shrubland

Shrubland

Woodland

Ponderosa pine, xeric

Dry forest

Cool, moist forest

Subalpine forest

Change in Total Veg Carbon, 1979-2008 to 2071-2100

“Reference Warming Scenario”: CSIRO-MK360

RCP8.5

Summary

• Under RCP8.5 scenario, climate will be hotter & wetter.

• Wetter winters. Hotter & drier summers.

• Vegetation simulations suggest:– Loss of subalpine forests are likely

– Forests vulnerable to conversion to woodlands & shrublands

– Conversion of shrublands to hot shrublands, expansion of grasslands

– Higher productivity + incr. fire => lower carbon stocks

– Stable forests still lose carbon stocks

Acknowledgements: Ayn Shlisky, Becky Gravenmier, Karen Bennet-Jones (USFS R6); MyricaMcCune, Chris Ringo (OSU); Phil Mote, David Rupp (OCCRI/OSU); Dominique Bachelet, Ken Ferschweiler, Tim Sheehan (CBI); Miles Hemstrom (INR); Ron Neilson, Jim Lenihan (USFS, retired).