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May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 11
Evaluating the Integrated Census -2008 Israel
Pnina ZADKAPnina ZADKA
Central Bureau of Statistics Central Bureau of Statistics
IsraelIsrael
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 22
Content ofContent of PresentationPresentation
Integrated census – integrated evaluationIntegrated census – integrated evaluation– Data sourcesData sources– Methodology in briefMethodology in brief
Evaluation methodsEvaluation methods Evaluation parametersEvaluation parameters 2006 evaluation results2006 evaluation results 2008 Evaluation procedures2008 Evaluation procedures
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 33
Integrated Census Data SourcesIntegrated Census Data Sources Administrative sources (IAF)Administrative sources (IAF)
Population Register Population Register
Electricity Meters registerElectricity Meters register Students’ register (Elementary schools, Students’ register (Elementary schools,
Secondary school and high school)Secondary school and high school) Vehicles’ register Vehicles’ register Geo-coded addressesGeo-coded addresses
++
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 44
Area based sampleArea based sample – Estimating under- – Estimating under-coverage within Statistical Area, and coverage within Statistical Area, and collecting socioeconomic information not collecting socioeconomic information not available in administrative sources.available in administrative sources.
Population Register SamplePopulation Register Sample – – Estimating over-overage within Statistical Estimating over-overage within Statistical Area Area
Integrated Census Data SourcesIntegrated Census Data Sources Direct Data CollectionDirect Data Collection
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 55
Integrated Census MethodologyIntegrated Census Methodology
1
574 444
5
11
23
6
Area sample “U” CAPI survey
1
2
3
54
5
6
7
IAF sample “O” CATI survey
Sampled enumeration cells
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 66
Integrated Evaluation Integrated Evaluation MethodologyMethodology
Evaluation of the IAFEvaluation of the IAF Evaluation of “U” enumeration procedureEvaluation of “U” enumeration procedure Evaluation of “O” enumeration ProcedureEvaluation of “O” enumeration Procedure Census weights – reflecting coverage ratesCensus weights – reflecting coverage rates
Weight =1-Weight =1- reflecting complete balance reflecting complete balance between over and under coveragebetween over and under coverageWeight >1 – reflecting more under coverageWeight >1 – reflecting more under coverageWeight<1 – reflecting more over coverageWeight<1 – reflecting more over coverage
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 77
Evaluation ParametersEvaluation Parameters
““Improvement” of residential status Improvement” of residential status ““Improvement” of addressesImprovement” of addresses ““Administrative Family” constructionAdministrative Family” construction omitted in the “U” survey & non-response ratesomitted in the “U” survey & non-response rates Availability of telephone numbers for the “O” Availability of telephone numbers for the “O”
sample & non-response rates sample & non-response rates Dual model – CV of the final estimates Dual model – CV of the final estimates
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 88
20062006 Pilot CensusPilot Census
≈ ≈ 50 thousand persons in the IAF sample50 thousand persons in the IAF sample ≈ ≈ 14 thousand “administrative families”14 thousand “administrative families” 25 Localities25 Localities 16 residential institutes (including one 16 residential institutes (including one
prison)prison)
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 99
20062006 Pilot Census Pilot Census Evaluation ResultsEvaluation Results
Administrative familiesAdministrative families– ≈≈90% correct construction90% correct construction– 0.5% improper split of family0.5% improper split of family– 1.4% individuals not unified with their actual family 1.4% individuals not unified with their actual family
even though living at the same addresseven though living at the same address– 3% improper merge of families3% improper merge of families– 4.5% incorrect addresses in the IAF4.5% incorrect addresses in the IAF
““Emigrants”Emigrants” – 19 persons not flagged as emigrants (0.04%)19 persons not flagged as emigrants (0.04%)– 9 persons flagged as emigrants improperly (0.02%)9 persons flagged as emigrants improperly (0.02%)
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 1010
20062006 Pilot Census Evaluation Results Pilot Census Evaluation Results (cont.)(cont.)
““U” sample evaluationU” sample evaluation (“O” as pseudo PES)(“O” as pseudo PES)– ≈ ≈ 40 thousand persons were registered in sampled cells 40 thousand persons were registered in sampled cells
addressesaddresses– 27.2 thousand were interviewed in “U” (68%)27.2 thousand were interviewed in “U” (68%)– 4.3 thousand living in their registered address(11%)- 4.3 thousand living in their registered address(11%)-
omitted in the “U” enumeration omitted in the “U” enumeration – 5.7 thousand living at a different address (14%)5.7 thousand living at a different address (14%)– 7% not contacted7% not contacted
89% - upper limit of coverage rate for the field 89% - upper limit of coverage rate for the field enumeration procedureenumeration procedure
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 1111
““O” sample evaluationO” sample evaluation– 11, 360 families11, 360 families
1,413 unknown telephone number1,413 unknown telephone number
– 22,809 individuals22,809 individuals 2,032 unknown telephone numbers2,032 unknown telephone numbers
– 14, 754 full interview (72%)14, 754 full interview (72%)– 1,524 partial interview or mismatched (7%)1,524 partial interview or mismatched (7%)– 4,326 not interviewed (21%)4,326 not interviewed (21%)
20062006 Pilot Census Evaluation Results Pilot Census Evaluation Results (cont.)(cont.)
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 1212
Statistical estimates evaluationStatistical estimates evaluation CV calculated by both methods yielded CV calculated by both methods yielded
similar results within expected limits.similar results within expected limits. If combined response rates (“U” + “O”) are If combined response rates (“U” + “O”) are
less than 50% for a SA the model less than 50% for a SA the model does notdoes not yield valid estimates. yield valid estimates.
20062006 Pilot Census Evaluation Results (cont.)Pilot Census Evaluation Results (cont.)
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 1313
Implications applied for 2008Implications applied for 2008
No modification in the Emigrant flagging No modification in the Emigrant flagging algorithmalgorithm
Improve algorithm for “administrative Improve algorithm for “administrative families”families”
Improve field enumeration resultsImprove field enumeration results Improve geo-coding in all sub-filesImprove geo-coding in all sub-files
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 1414
20082008 Census EvaluationCensus Evaluation
All examined evaluation procedures will be All examined evaluation procedures will be repeatedrepeated
Evaluation of Socio-Economic data with Evaluation of Socio-Economic data with auxiliary sources (National Insurance auxiliary sources (National Insurance Institute, LFS, Household Expenditure Institute, LFS, Household Expenditure Survey, Social Survey)Survey, Social Survey)
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 1515
Thank YouThank You
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 1616
““Improvement” of residential statusImprovement” of residential status
The PR consists of all residents with a long term visa The PR consists of all residents with a long term visa who received an ID card (number). Registered who received an ID card (number). Registered residents who live permanently abroad are not residents who live permanently abroad are not deleted from the register. deleted from the register.
A special algorithm based on border control A special algorithm based on border control registrations, updates from the NII, extreme age registrations, updates from the NII, extreme age and 1995 census files, was used to identify “non-and 1995 census files, was used to identify “non-residents” in the PR and flag them in the IAF residents” in the PR and flag them in the IAF
☜☜
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 1717
““Improvement” of addressesImprovement” of addresses
PR addresses were added from the the PR addresses were added from the the other administrative files, primary address other administrative files, primary address was selected by an algorithm for the all was selected by an algorithm for the all records IAF.records IAF.
☜☜
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 1818
““Administrative Family” constructionAdministrative Family” construction
““Administrative families” were constructed Administrative families” were constructed based on kinship relations registered in the based on kinship relations registered in the PR. PR.
Families living in different “improved Families living in different “improved addresses” were unified using a set of rules addresses” were unified using a set of rules and a preference and a preference algorithm.algorithm.
☜☜
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 1919
Omitted in the enumeration of “U” Omitted in the enumeration of “U” surveysurvey
People registered properly in the IAF who People registered properly in the IAF who were missed in the “U” survey enumeration were missed in the “U” survey enumeration and were found in the “O” survey and were found in the “O” survey enumeration. enumeration.
☜☜
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 2020
““O” Sample SurveyO” Sample Survey
Administrative families with no telephone Administrative families with no telephone numbernumber
Wrong number or no response after 15 callsWrong number or no response after 15 calls No response to mail questionnaire No response to mail questionnaire
☜☜
May 12-15, 2008May 12-15, 2008 UNECE Geneva 2008UNECE Geneva 2008
Evaluating Integrated Census IsraelEvaluating Integrated Census Israel 2121
Dual model – CV of the final Dual model – CV of the final estimatesestimates
Impute probabilities for each person in Impute probabilities for each person in estimation groupestimation group to reside at their to reside at their registered address.registered address.
Compatibility with current population Compatibility with current population estimatesestimates
Convergence of proportional CV of the Convergence of proportional CV of the estimates calculated using “Taylor estimates calculated using “Taylor expansion” and “Jackknife” methods. expansion” and “Jackknife” methods. ☜☜