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8/3/2019 Materi Investor Summit 21 November-Pak Ito Warsito
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Indonesia Economy
and Capital Market Update
Ito WarsitoPresident Director
Indonesia Stock Exchange
21 November 2011
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Indonesia Real Economic Growth2006 2011 Q3
6,54%
Average 5.81%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Indonesia is one of only few countries
survived Global Economic Slowdown withoutsuffering a recession
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What sustain Indonesia?Private Consumption and Services as the main engine
Private Consumption has the largest contribution to economic growth. But in the long term, this will not be
enough. Indonesia need to push more resources on investment and trades. More investment on infrastructures
and trades will lower economic costs, creating jobs, and ensure a more stable consumption in the future
After Asian Crisis 1998, Services has been taking over Industries as the main engine of the economy . Yet we
need more to be done because 40% of employment is still tied to agriculture. We have a problem of too many
jobs contributing the less to the economy and have serious problem of productivity.
The Main Indicator of Indonesian Economy
Indicators (%,YoY) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20102011
Q12011
Q22011
Q3
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 7.82 4.70 -13.13 0.82 4.89 3.64 4.50 4.78 5.03 5.69 5.51 6.32 6.10 4.55 6.10 6.49 6.52 6.54A. Aggregate Demand
Consumption 9.7 7.8 -6.2 4.6 1.6 3.5 3.8 3.9 5.0 4.0 3.2 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.8
Government Expenditure 2.7 0.1 -15.4 0.7 6.5 7.6 13 10 4 6.6 9.6 3.9 10.4 15.7 0.3 2.8 4.5 2.5
Gross Fix Capital Formation 14.5 8.6 -33 -18.2 16.7 6.5 4.7 0.6 14.7 10.9 2.5 9.2 11.7 3.3 2.0 7.3 9.4 7.1
Export 7.6 7.8 11.2 -31.8 26.5 0.6 -1.2 5.9 13.5 16.6 9.4 8 9.5 -9.7 6.4 12.5 17.5 18.5
Import 6.9 14.7 -5.3 -40.7 25.9 4.2 -4.2 1.6 26.7 17.8 8.6 8.9 10.0 -15 5.6 14.4 15.3 14.2
B. Sectoral Value Added
Agriculture 3.1 1.0 -1.3 2.2 1.9 3.3 3.4 3.8 2.8 2.7 3.4 3.5 4.8 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.9 2.7
Mining 6.3 2.1 -2.8 -1.6 5.5 0.3 1.0 -1.4 -4.5 3.2 1.7 2.0 0.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 0.8 0.3
Manufacturing 11.6 5.3 -11.4 3.9 6.0 3.3 5.3 5.3 6.4 4.6 4.6 5.7 3.7 2.1 5.3 5.0 6.1 6.6
Utilities 14.0 12.4 3.0 8.3 7.6 7.9 8.9 6.1 7.5 7.5 8.3 8.6 10.9 13.8 4.3 4.3 3.9 5.2
Construction 12.8 7.4 -36.4 -1.9 5.6 4.6 5.5 6.1 7.5 7.5 8.3 8.6 7.3 7.1 6.7 5.3 7.6 6.4Trade, Hotel, Restaurant 8.2 5.8 -18.2 -0.1 5.7 3.9 4.3 5.4 5.7 8.3 6.4 8.5 7.2 1.1 8.4 8.0 9.6 10.1
Transportation & Comm. 8.7 7.0 -26.6 -7.2 4.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 7.7 6.7 5.5 8.0 16.7 15.5 15.5 13.7 10.7 9.5
Financial & Rent 6.0 5.9 -26.6 -7.2 4.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 7.7 6.7 5.5 8.0 8.2 5.0 6.3 7.3 6.9 7.0
Other Services 3.4 3.6 -3.8 1.9 2.3 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.4 5.2 6.2 6.6 6.4 6.4 7.5 7.0 5.7 7.8
C. Money Market
Reserve (US$ Miliar) 19.1 21.4 23.8 27.1 29.4 28 31.6 36.2 36.3 34.7 42.6 56.9 51.6 66.1 96.207 105.709 119.654 114.502
Exchange Rate (Rp/US$) 2,383 4,650 8,065 7,100 9,595 10,400 8,940 8,465 9,290 9,840 9,020 9,419 10,950 9,400 8,991 8,709 8,597 8,823
Inflation (%) 6.5 10.3 77.6 1.9 9.3 12.5 10.0 5.1 6.4 17.1 6.6 6.6 11.1 2.8 6.96 6.65 5.54 4.61
BI rate (%) 12.8 20 38.44 20.68 17.65 19.19 18.25 15.07 13.41 12.75 9.75 8 9.25 6.5 6.5 6.75 6.75 6.75
Source : Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank Indonesia, IDX
estimates (F).
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An Update on Inflation FiguresVolatile components moving lower
Most major countries havewitnessed an increase on
inflation, except Indonesia
Volatile component on
inflation has been subdued,
while core & administered
component has been
relatively stable.
We can expect inflation rate
become stable until the end
of 2011.
Risk factor: Weather andsupply of food staple
(especially Rice)
Source: Statistics Indonesia, Bloomberg0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
Japan
France
Germany
EU
Malaysia
US
Thailand
Korea
Indonesia
Philippines
UK
Singapore
China
India
Vietnam
% y-o-yDec-10 Sep-11
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
2009 2010 2011
Core Administered Price Volatile Good CPI Headline (%,yoy)
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Global Economic Growthin 2011, countries are hitting brakes
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Japan
UK
US
France
EU
Thailand
Germany
Korea
Philippines
Malaysia
Vietnam
Indonesia
India
China
%Y-O-Y
Q4-2010 Q2-2011
Compared to Q4 2010,
economic growth in
the Q2 2011 has been
slowing down.
Most of economic
slowing down
happened in Developedcountries.
Significant slowing
down can be seen in
Philippines, United
States and Japan.
Further slowing downcould happen in the
Final Quarter of 2011
Source: Statistics Indonesia, Bloomberg
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A Snapshot on Indonesian Debt ReductionLesser risk compared to peers
46% 42%
32% 34%29%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total Debt service (% of Tax
revenue)
Source: Bank Indonesia
40,4336,85
33,2428,65 26,94
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total Government Debt (%GDP)
Source: International Monetary Fund
6%5%
4% 4%
3%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Debt Service (%GDP)
Source: Bank Indonesia
72,9
56,249,9
38,6
34
29,3
27,426,4
-1,71
-1,14
-0,9
-1,2-1,48
-1,91
-2,49
-2,08
-3
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Deficit to GDP (%)Debt to GDP (%)
Debt to GDP (%) Deficit to GDP (%)
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A steady improvement on Credit Ratingwhile the world swamped by rating downgrades
Investmentgrade
NonInvestmentGrad
e
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BB+ vs. BBB RatingIndonesia among Russia, Brazil, & India
Investment
to GDP
Savings to
GDP
Gov. Balance
%GDP
Primary
Balance
Gov Dom.
Debt to GDP
Commodity
dependence
Russia 22.8% 28.6% -1.2% -3.6% 8.9% 64.5%
Brazil 19.2% 18.3% -2.8% 2.7% 51.8% 47.7%
India 34.6% 31.3% -7.9% -4.4% 62.2% 17.6%
Indonesia 32.5% 34.2% -1.8% 0.8% 14.1% 49.8%Current Acc.
Bal. %GDP
CAB + FDI Net FDI
Flows*
Reserves
(US Bill.)*
Reserves CXP
cover (mo.)*
Bond Rating
Russia 4.0% 3.5% -9607 479.53 13.6 BBB
Brazil -2.3% -0.1% 36918 288.58 11.8 BBB-
India -2.9% -1.8% 18000 304.81 7.7 BBB-
Indonesia 3.6% 4.3% 10241 96.23 6.5 BB+
(Source: Fitch Ratings Sept 2011)
* = End 2010 figure
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Worlds Largest Investors (by AUM)
1,3
1,8
4,2
24,6
24,7
29,9
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
ETF
Hedge Fund
Sovereign Wealth Fund
Insurance Fund
Mutual Fund
Pension Fund
and theyre chasing Investment Grade Countries & Instruments
(End of 2010 in USD Trillion)
Source: The City UK Research Oct-2011
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and hows the stock market?
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Performance of Indonesian Stocks2006 October 2011
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11
MSCI Emerging Market
MSCI Indonesia
MSCI Indonesia USD
MSCI Asia Pacific Ex Japan
MSCI World
July 2006 October 2011 Indonesian Stock Market outperforming
other markets including other emerging markets
Source: Bloomberg, Oct 2011
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Jakarta Composite Index2002 11 November 2011
424.945
691.895
1,000.233
1,162.635
1,805.523
2,745.826
1,355.408
2,534.356
3,703.512
3,778.885
-
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
4,400
55.30%
52.08%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
86.98%
-50.64%
46.13%
20102011*
8.39% 62.82%
44.56%
16.24%
2.04%
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Jakarta Composite Index2002 18 November 2011
424.945
691.895
1,000.233
1,162.635
1,805.523
2,745.826
1,355.408
2,534.356
3,703.512
3,754.500
-
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
4,400
55.30%
52.08%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
86.98%
-50.64%
46.13%
2010 2011*
8.39% 62.82%
44.56%
16.24%
1.38%
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Indonesia among Emerging MarketsAs March 2011
CountryMSCI Emerging
Market
MSCI AC Asia
ex Japan
China 17.7% 25.0%
Brazil 16.0%
Korea 13.5% 19.1%
Taiwan 11.5% 16.3%
South Africa 7.4%
India 7.4% 10.4%
Russia 7.3%
Mexico 4.5%
Malaysia 2.9% 4.1%
Indonesia 2.3% 3.3%
Thailand 1.7% 2.4%
Poland 1.7%
CountryMSCI Emerging
Market
MSCI AC Asia
ex Japan
Chile 1.5%
Turkey 1.3%
Colombia 0.8%
Peru 0.6%
Phillipines 0.5% 0.7%
Hungary 0.4%
Egypt 0.4%
Czech Republic 0.4%
Morocco 0.2%
Hong Kong 11.8%
Singapore 6.9%
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Top 20 in Market Capitalizationas 11 November 2011
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Foreign Investor ActivitiesForeign Capital Flow 2006 18 November 2011
17,271
32,606
18,653
13,290
(1,160) (562)
1,8152,602
1,974
747
3,090
1,345925
(3,118)
1,794
3,839
20,982
430
(2,008)
4,922
1,524
(1,652)
4,4974,811
2,030
6,003
322
(2,515)
2,617
21,321
(4,009)
2,123
(2,266)
17,515
(253)
4,115 5,186
(8,449)
1,644
2,9462,769
2006 2007 2008 2009 Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2010 Jan Feb M ar A pr M ay Jun Jul A ug Sep Oct N ov D ec 2011 Jan Feb Mar A pr M ay June July Aug Sept Oct N ov
k h
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Stock OwnershipBased on Investor Nationalities
Institutions: Insurance, Mutual Fund, Pension Fund, Financial Institution, Corporate,Securities Company, Foundation
Source Data : Indonesia Central Securities Depository
*) Scriptless Stocks
Type of Investors Nationality Oct-11 2010 2009 2008
(Equity Only) (IDR Billion) % (IDR Billion) % (IDR Billion) % (IDR Billion) %
Local Investor 781,123 38.58% 701,519 37.20% 378,782 32.90% 211,532 32.16%
Individual 148,820 19.05% 124,143 17.70% 81,916 21.60% 38,237 18.08%
Institution 631,300 80.82% 575,943 82.10% 295,989 78.10% 172,791 81.69%
Others 1,003 0.13% 1,433 0.20% 877 0.20% 493 0.23%
Foreign Investor 1,243,492 61.42% 1,184,282 62.80% 772,572 67,1% 446,180 67.84%
Individual 24,035 1.93% 3,062 0.26% 1,773 0.20% 1,062 0.24%
Institution 920,628 74.04% 875,199 73.90% 440,248 57.00% 135,057 30.27%
Others (inc. Street Name) 298,830 24.03% 306,021 25.84% 330,551 42.80% 310,071 69.49%
TOTAL 2,024,615 1,885,801 1,151,354 657,712
k i li i d di l
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Market Capitalization and Trading ValueBy Industry 18 November position
T l N I f Li d C i
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Total Net Income of Listed CompaniesFinancial Statement Date: Dec 2000 Dec 2010
Tahun Net Income Change %
2000 (35.85)
2001 7.62 -121.25%
2002 47.63 525.34%
2003 38.11 -19.98%
2004 48.08 26.16%
2005 54.17 12.66%
2006 67.68 24.93%
2007 105.01 55.17%
2008 74.54 -29.02%
2009 123.20 65.29%
2010 170.73 38.58%
Total net income of listed companies in 2010 increased 38.58% compare to 2009
(35.85)
7.62
47.6338.11
48.0854.17
67.68
105.01
74.54
123.20
170.73
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
T 40 Li d C b N I
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Top 40 Listed Company by Net IncomeFinancial Statement Date: Dec 2009 Dec 2010
2010 2009
1 ASII 14.37 10.04 43.09%
2 TLKM 11.54 11.33 1.81%
3 BBRI 11.47 7.31 56.98%
4 BMRI 9.22 7.16 28.83%
5 BBCA 8.48 6.81 24.56%
6 HMSP 6.42 5.09 26.22%
7 PGAS 6.24 6.23 0.17%
8 MPPA 5.80 0.30 1,833.32%
9 GGRM 4.15 3.46 19.98%
10 BBNI 4.10 2.48 65.13%
11 INCO 3.93 1.61 144.26%
12 UNTR 3.87 3.82 1.45%
13 SMGR 3.63 3.33 9.22%
14 UNVR 3.39 3.04 11.26%
15 INTP 3.22 2.75 17.41%
16 INDF 2.95 2.08 42.25%
17 EXCL 2.89 1.71 69.13%
18 BDMN 2.88 1.53 88.15%
19 MLPL 2.83 0.11 2,457.23%
20 BUMI 2.79 1.80 55.51%
Total of The 20 Stocks 114.18 81.97 39.30%
Total IDX 170.73 123.20 38.58%
No Code Listed Stock
Total Net Income
(Trilion Rp)Change
(%)
Astra International Tbk
Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk
Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk
Bank Central Asia Tbk
HM Sampoerna Tbk
Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk
Matahari Putra Prima Tbk
Gudang Garam Tbk
Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk
INCO Tbk
United Tractors Tbk
Multipolar Tbk
Bumi Resources Tbk
Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk
Unilever Indonesia Tbk
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk
Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk
XL Axiata Tbk
Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk
T 40 Li t d C b N t I
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Top 40 Listed Company by Net IncomeFinancial Statement Date: Dec 2009 Dec 2010
2010 2009
21 BNGA 2.55 1.57 62.50%
22 CPIN 2.21 1.61 37.05%
23 ADRO 2.21 4.37 -49.46%
24 AALI 2.02 1.66 21.45%
25 PTBA 2.01 2.73 -26.35%
26 ITMG 1.83 3.17 -42.09%
27 ANTM 1.68 0.60 178.57%
28 MLIA 1.57 1.44 9.20%
29 ADMF 1.47 1.21 21.07%
30 KLBF 1.29 0.93 38.46%
31 SMMA 1.28 0.70 82.52%
32 SMAR 1.26 0.75 68.41%
33 PNBN 1.26 0.92 37.43%
34 JSMR 1.19 0.99 20.23%
35 AUTO 1.14 0.77 48.54%
36 LSIP 1.03 0.71 46.06%37 BNLI 1.00 0.48 107.57%
38 JPFA 0.96 0.81 17.77%
39 MEGA 0.95 0.54 77.09%
40 TINS 0.95 0.31 202.13%
Total of The 40 Stocks 144.04 108.23 33.08%
Total IDX 170.73 123.20 38.58%
Total Net Income
(Trilion Rp)Change
(%)
No Code Listed Stock
Timah Tbk
Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk
Astra Otoparts Tbk
PP London Sumatera TbkBank Permata Tbk
JAPFA Comfeed Indonesia Tbk
Bank MEGA Tbk
Mulia Industrindo TbkAdira Dinamika Multi Finance Tbk
Kalbe Farma Tbk
Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk
SMART Tbk
Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk
Adaro Energy Tbk
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk
Aneka Tambang Tbk
Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk
N t I G th b d S t
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Net Income Growth based on Sectors2009 compared to 2010
2,91%
20,31%
32,03%
37,38%
41,54%
46,26%
47,19%
49,90%
100,37%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Infrastructure, Utilities,&
Transportation
Basic Industry and Chemical
Miscellaneous Industry
Consumer Goods Industry
Mining
Agriculture
Property, Real Estate and Building
Construction
Finance
Trade, Services, & Investment
T 20 i T di V l
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Top 20 in Trading ValuesPeriod: 2011 - Year to Date
M t l F d i I d i
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Mutual Fund in IndonesiaTotal Net Asset Value (NAV) September 2011: IDR 154.28 Trillion
(55,462)
35.89%
(41,368)
26.77%
(25,847)
16.73%
(19,595)
12.68%
(8,014)5.19% (3,550)
2.30%(448)
0.29%
(220)
0.14%
(025)
0.02%
Equity
Capital Protection Fund
Fixed Income
Mixed
Money Market
Sharia
ETF - Fixed Income
Index
ETF - Equity
Source: Bapepam-LK
A i St k E h L l Li t d C i
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Asian Stock Exchange Local Listed CompaniesMore supply needed for Indonesia
250
433
542
772
812
927
947
1.377
1.472
1.803
2.019
2.284
2.306
5.102
Philipine (PSE)
Indonesia IDX *
Thailand (SET)
Singapore (SGX)
Taiwan (TSE)
China (Shanghai)
Malaysia (BM)
China (Shenzhen)
Hong Kong (HKEX)
Korea (KSE)
Australia (ASX)
Jepang (TSE)
NYSE Euronext (US)
India (BSE)
Source: World Federation of Exchanges
As End of October 2011
Market Capitali ation in Asia Pacific
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Market Capitalization in Asia PacificOctober 2011
TSE : Tokyo Stock Exchange
SSE : Shanghai Stock Exchange
HKEX : Hong Kong Exchanges
BSE : Bombay Stock Exchange
ASX : Australia Stock Exchange
KRX : Korea Exchanges
SGX : Singapore Exchanges
BM : Bursa Malaysia
IDX : Indonesia Stock Exchange
SET : Stock Exchange of Thailand
PSE : Philippine Stock Exchange
Source: World Federation of Exchanges
TSE SSE HKEX ASX BSE KRX SGX BM IDX SET PSE
3,428
2,597
2,375
1,3391,281
1,068
592
405 388261
165
IDX Statistical Highlight
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IDX Statistical Highlight2001-2011
1) Equity Trading Only 2) Includes: 2 ETFs 3) 11 November 2011
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3)
COMPOSITE INDEX 392.036 424.945 691.895 1,000.23 1,162.64 1,805.52 2,745.83 1,355.41 2,534.36 3,703.51 3,754.500Number of Listed Issuers 316 331 333 331 336 344 3852) 3982) 4002) 4222) 4362)
Number of New Issuers 31 22 6 12 8 12 242) 19 13 23 19
Delisted Companies 2 7 4 14 3 4 8 6 11 1 5
Market Capitalization (Trill. Rp) 239.3 268.4 460.4 679.9 801.3 1,249.1 1,988.3 1,076.5 2,019.4 3,247.1 3,440.2
Market Capitalization (Bill. USD) 23.1 30.1 54.5 72.7 81.4 138.4 211.1 98.3 214.1 361.7 379.9
Trading Volume (Bill. Shares) 148.4 171.2 234.0 411.8 401.9 436.9 1,039.5 787.8 1,467.7 1,330.9 1,083.4
Trading Value (Trill. Rp) 97.5 120.8 125.4 247.0 406.0 445.7 1,050.2 1,064.5 975.1 1.176.2 1,120.1
Trading Value (Bill. USD) 9.4 13.6 14.8 26.4 41.3 49.4 113.4 112.1 96.2 129.78 128.33
Number of Trades (Thousand) 3,622 3,092 2,953 3,724 4,012 4,811 11,861 13,417 20,977 25,919 25,189
Number of Trading Days 246 245 242 241 243 242 246 240 241 245 218
AVERAGE DAILY TRADING:
Volume (Mill. Shares) 603.2 698.8 967.1 1,708.6 1,653.8 1,805.5 4,225.8 3,282.7 6,089.9 5,432.1 4,969.8
Value (Bill. Rp) 396.4 492.9 518.3 1,024.9 1,670.8 1,841.8 4,268.9 4,435.5 4,046.2 4,801.0 5,138.1
Value (Mill. US$) 38.3 55.4 61.4 109.6 169.8 204.1 460.9 467.2 399.2 529.7 588.7
Number of Transaction14,722 12,621 12,203
15,452 16,510 19,880 48,216 55,905 87,040105,709
115,547FUND RAISED FROM:
IPO (Trillion Rp) 1.10 1.12 8.18 2.14 3.55 3.00 16.87 24.39 3.85 29.68 15.48
Rights (Trillion Rp) 4.12 7.31 3.80 3.19 5.89 12.58 29.50 56.25 7.99 48.16 37.07
Warrant (Trillion Rp) 0.02 0.11 0.06 0.29 0.23 0.79 2.08 1.98 2.51 1.87 0.62
Total Fund Raised (Trillion Rp) 5.24 8.54 12.04 6.34 9.66 16.38 48.44 82.62 14.35 79.71 53.17
8/3/2019 Materi Investor Summit 21 November-Pak Ito Warsito
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THANK YOU