• Master thesis: three partsMaster thesis: three parts

• A real‐life phenomenon

• something happened• something happened

• a new policy• someone’s views

• Relevant theory to understand the phenomenon

H h h h• How the theory can enhance our understanding of the phenomenon

• Split: approx 15 + 15 + 10 pagesSplit: approx 15   15   10 pages

04.02.2010 1Tore Nilssen

• Examples– Media economics

• The decline of newspapers and rise of online news• Digitization of TV distributiong

– In both cases: What will happen next? What should firms do? Policymakers?

– Newspaper support; TV2 license

V ti l l ti d / t il– Vertical relations producers/retailers• Oil companies tend to sell out of retailing

– This week: Statoil’s announcementWh i th t? Wh t th d l i f ?– Why is that? What are the underlying forces?

• In other industries the opposite trend, for example the book market, pharmacies

Sport economics– Sport economics• Why do football clubs perform so poorly? Should leagues be organized differently? For example: huge difference US/Europe.

• Sport/media the market for media rights to sport events• Sport/media: the market for media rights to sport events.

04.02.2010 Tore Nilssen 2

– Network industries• Examples: electricity, telecom, railways

• Who should own the network (private vs public)?

Creative industries– Creative industries• File sharing, etc.

• Why do we have copyright laws? Is there a need to provide incentives for composers and others?

• Why is there a decline in sales of CDs?

• The market for concerts: intermediaries, pricing, etc.

• Contests

– Architectural competition: how, why?

– Idol: a way to find talents or just simple entertainment?Idol: a way to find talents, or just simple entertainment?

Tore Nilssen, room ES1216, tore.nilssen@econ.uio.no@

04.02.2010 Tore Nilssen 3

Empirical Political EconomicsEmpirical Political Economics

Jon Fiva for master StudentsJon Fiva for master Students

Empirical Political EconomicsEmpirical Political Economics

Political economics: 

‐ field in the intersection between political science and economics. 

‐ how do policies impact the economy? (trad.economics)

‐ how do different economic conditions  and incentives shape policies? 

How do one empirical test political economics theories?

• Experiments is in most cases not possible

• Hence, must rely on non‐experimental data

An example: how do re‐election probabilities affect public policies? 

‐ Could construct proxy for the incumbent’s re‐election probabilites across countries. 

‐ Main challenge: Hard to control for all potentially correlated institutional features 

Norwegian local governmentsNorwegian local governments

Potential solution: data from Norwegian local governments. 

Why? 

‐ Above 400 political entities operating within the same institutional environment.

‐ Reduce the chance of omitted variable problems

‐ Can take advantage of particular institutional features / institutional reforms

Norwegian local governmentsNorwegian local governmentsAlso : Norwegian local governments are interesting themselves. 

– Take spending decisions for 15‐20% GDP.

– Responsible for important welfare services.

Rich data available for a long time period on, e.g. 

– Political outcomes:  spending, taxation, debt… 

– Politics: voting behavior, composition of local council, mayors, re‐election

– Population characteristics: education level ++ 

– Local government characteristics: settlement pattern ++

Example of master thesis: Askill Halse (2009): A woman’s touch. The impact of gender on political priorities.

Silje Aslaksen: The Resource Curse

E-mail: silje.aslaksen@econ.uio.no

Room: 1034 �10th �oor Eilert Sundts hus

() February 8, 2010 1 / 4

Silje Aslaksen: The Resource Curse

ALGERIA

ARGENTINA

AUSTRALIA

AUSTRIA

BANGLADESH

BELGIUM

BENIN

BOLIVIA

BRAZILBURKINA FASO

BURUNDICAMEROON

CANADA

CENTRAL AFR.R.

CHAD

CHILE

CHINA

COLOMBIACONGO

COSTA RICA

CYPRUS

DENMARK

DOMINICAN REP.

ECUADOR

EGYPT

EL SALVADOR

FINLAND

FRANCE

GABONGAMBIA

GERMANY, WEST

GHANA

GREECE

GUATEMALA

GUYANA

HONDURAS

INDIA

INDONESIA

IRAN

IRELAND

ISRAELITALY

IVORY COASTJAMAICA

JAPANJORDAN

KENYA

KOREA, REP.

MADAGASCAR

MALAWI

MALAYSIA

MALI

MAURITANIA

MAURITIUS

MEXICO

MOROCCONETHERLANDS

NEW ZEALAND

NICARAGUA

NIGERIA

NORWAY

PAKISTANPARAGUAY

PERU

PHILIPPINES

PORTUGAL

RWANDA

SENEGAL

SIERRA LEONE

SINGAPORE

SOUTH AFRICA

SPAINSRI LANKA

SUDAN

SWEDEN

SWITZERLAND

SYRIA

TAIWAN

THAILAND

TOGO

TRINIDAD&TOBAGO

TUNISIA

TURKEYU.K.

U.S.A.

UGANDA

URUGUAY

VENEZUELAZAMBIA

ZIMBABWE

­4­2

02

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grow

th

0 .2 .4 .6resource abundance

Fitted values growth per econ active pop

() February 4, 2010 1 / 3

Really?�Resource dependence�� endogenous to underlying institutional factors.What if we use more exogenous measures of "resource abundance"?

Resource StocksChanges in resource prices

For all?We know that on average resources are correlated with lower growth.But the most interesting pattern is not the average e¤ect �but thevariation.Can we �nd systematic di¤erences between countries that perform"good" and countries that perform "bad"

Institutions - What kind of institutions?Timing of discoveryType of natural resources - What kind of resources are "good" and"bad" for development

() February 8, 2010 3 / 4

Why?Unhealthy political incentives

Increases the value of being in powerIncreases the opportunity to use money to remain in powerIncreases opportunity for oppositions to take power

What is the empirical support for this?

Natural resources and public spendingLonger duration in o¢ ce?Power struggles - Civil war, coups, electoral fraudsNatural resources and the transition of power?

() February 8, 2010 4 / 4

Writing your thesis t th F i h C tat the Frisch Centre

Simen Markussen

Stiftelsen Frischsenteret for samfunnsøkonomisk forskning

Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Researchg fwww.frisch.uio.no

The Frisch CentreThe Frisch Centre

• An independent Research institution founded by the University of Oslo 1. January 1999

• Main research topics– Labour market, education, social benefits– Energy and environment

E hi– Entrepeneurship– Health economics

• Theoretical and empirical research but emphasis• Theoretical and empirical research, but emphasis on empirical work– Norwegian administrative data

Frisch Centre

Norwegian administrative data– Earnings, education, family, sick leave, disability etc.

Masters thesis at the Frisch CentreMasters thesis at the Frisch Centre

• Student assistant– Announcements on our webpage from time to time– Typical:

3 h i i i i i h d k j• 3 months position, assisting with data work on some project• Use these data to write a thesis (partly within the 3 months)• Shared office at the Frisch Centre

• Non-employed– If you have good ideas, send us a mail with your

project and a CV: simen.markussen@frisch.uio.no– Shared office at the Frisch centre, if available

Frisch Centre

Closing the Gender Land Gap - the Effects of Land-Titling for Women in PeruEffects of Land Titling for Women in Peru• Formal title of land six million land plot• Program presuppose joint ownership

f f ( ) f– Institutional transfer of land (capital) from men to women – 2000 only 13% joint, in 2004 increase to 43% joint

• Research questions to be investigatedMore co ownership?– More co-ownership?

– Effect on female bargaining power• Opting out solution improved (threat point in Nash eq. game)• Divorce makes society aware of de facto redistribution of landDivorce makes society aware of de facto redistribution of land

– Effects on intra household allocations?• Women take jobs outside the household?• Change in expenditure/consumption patterns (girl ->schools)

I d d i li– Increased transparency and income pooling• Transparency of co-ownership• More savings with less bargaining

– Standard agricultural effects of titlingStandard agricultural effects of titling• Collateral, investments and market transactions

Spanish speaking master needed!Spanish speaking master needed!• NIBR prosjekt in Forskningsparken• Strong international connections

– CUANTO and IEP local counterpart– Deere and IFPRI international support

• Survey, 1200 households, autumn 2010– Impact analysis, natural experiment communities with/without

• Complementary qualitative researchp y q• Ragnhild experiments in same districts

– Effects formalization on environmental coop• Other data sets available now gender analysisOther data sets available now gender analysis

– GRADE 2004/2006 panel– Chile QEH, El Salvador IFPRI (only inglish possible)

• http://perulandgender.nibr.no/http://perulandgender.nibr.no/

The research department atThe research department atThe research department at The research department at Statistics NorwayStatistics Norway

Presentation February 2010by Mads Greaker, ESOP/Statistics Norway

Several areas:

• Macroeconomics• Macroeconomics• Microeconomics and Econometrics• Energ and en ironmental economics• Energy and environmental economics• Social and demographic research

Energy and environmental economics• Oil gas and power marketsOil, gas and power markets

– The effect of climate policies on energy markets– Predicting future oil, gas and electricity prices– Optimal taxation of petroleum companies

• Climate policy and economics– The role and design of technology policies– The workings of different systems for emission trading

Climate policy and industrial policy– Climate policy and industrial policy– How to design a climate agreement which is self-enforcing and attract

high participation• Sustainable developmentSustainable development

– Is the economy of Norway sustainable?– How do we interpret the precautionary principle?

Methods

• Numerical models:• Numerical models:– MSG: Forward looking, dynamic, general equilibrium model of

the Norwegian economy– Libemod: Static partial equilibrium model of the EuropeanLibemod: Static, partial equilibrium model of the European

energy market (electricity, nuclear, renewable, oil, coal and gas)– Petro: Forward looking, dynamic partial equilibrium model of the

global oil, coal, biofuel and gas marketsg , , g

• Economic theory (e.g. game theory, optimal control theory etc.)

• Econometric studies utilizing the data at Statistics Norway e.g. electricity demand

Research Department at Statistics NorwayResearch Department at Statistics NorwayResearch areas • Energy and environmental economicsEnergy and environmental economics

– Climate and energy economics (Annegrete Bruvoll, agb@ssb.no)– Economic growth and the environment (Mads Greaker, mgr@ssb.no)

• MacroeconomicsMacroeconomics– Macroeconomics (Roger Bjørnstad, bjr@ssb.no)– Public economics (Erling Holmøy, erl@ssb.no)

• Microeconomics– Labour market and firm behaviour (Arvid Raknerud, rak@ssb.no)– Taxation, inequality and consumer behaviour (Thor Olav Thoresen,

tot@ssb.no)• Social and demographic research

– Social and demographic research (Randi Kjeldstad, rkj@ssb.no)

• Statistical methods and standards*

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– Statistical methods and standards (Jan Bjørnstad, jab@ssb.no)

Unit for MacroeconomicsUnit for MacroeconomicsResearch fields• Time-series econometrics• Time-series econometrics

– Econometrics combines economic theory and statistics in the analysis and testing of economic relations. Time series econometrics brings the temporal dimension into play, enabling a distinction between short and longer-term relations between economic variables.

• Macroeconometric modelling– Macroeconometric modelling combines various econometric analyses of time series. Furthermore,

the macroeconometric models have input-output relations connecting the model’s product supplythe macroeconometric models have input-output relations connecting the model s product supply to its applications. There is an emphasis on using the conceptual and definitional terminology used for the national accounts.

• Business cycle analysis and forecast– Macroeconomic models and other methods are used to shed light on driving forces in the

Norwegian economy over the short and medium term. Business cycle reports, including normally f f S f

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three- or four-year forecast, are published quarterly in Economic Survey. Analyses of historical developments are also conducted at irregular intervals.

Unit for MacroeconomicsUnit for MacroeconomicsMaster thesis• Recent topics• Recent topics

– The housing market– Private consumption– Oil investments (searcing)– Forecasting business cycle using the Business tendency survey

• Payed/unpayed

• Interested?• Interested?– www.ssb.no/forskning og www.ssb.no/english/research– Contact Roger Bjørnstad, bjr@ssb.no

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