Master Thesis

The Potential of Fresnel Reflectors for Process HeatGeneration in the MENA Region

AJ �®KQ @ ÈAÖÞ�� ð ¡�

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ByMartin Haagensubmitted to

Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (University of Kassel)and Faculty of Engineering (University of Cairo) in partial fulfilment of the

requirements for M.Sc. degree in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency forthe MENA Region REMENA

Kassel, February 2012

1. Corrector Prof. Dr. Klaus Vajen (University of Kassel, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering,Department of Thermal Engineering)

2. Corrector Prof. Dr. Sayed Kaseb (University of Cairo, Faculty of EngineeringDepartment of Mechanical Power Engineering)

3. Corrector Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus (University of Kassel, Faculty Electrical Engineering andComputer Sciences, Department of Telecommunications

Academic supervisor: Christoph LauterbachIndustrial supervisor: Tobias Schwind, Christian Zahler (Industrial Solar GmbH)

Martin Haagen Matriculation: 30253827 Sprollstr. 85 70597 Stuttgart mhaagen@fastmail.fm

Master Thesis

The Potential of Fresnel Reflectors for Process HeatGeneration in the MENA Region

AJ �®KQ @ ÈAÖÞ�� ð ¡�

B@ ��Qå��Ë @ �é�®¢JÓ ú

�èP@QmÌ'@ YJËñ�K ú ÉJ �KQ �» @ñ« Ð@Y j�J�@

�éJ K A¾Ó@

ByMartin Haagensubmitted to

Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science (University of Kassel)and Faculty of Engineering (University of Cairo) in partial fulfilment of the

requirements for M.Sc. degree in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency forthe MENA Region REMENA

Kassel, February 2012

Approved by the Examining Committee:

1. Corrector Prof. Dr. Adel Khalil

2. Corrector Dr. Hany Nokrashy

3. Corrector Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus

Academic Supervisor Christoph Lauterbach

Martin Haagen Matriculation: 30253827 Sprollstr. 85 70597 Stuttgart mhaagen@fastmail.fm

Abstract

This study assesses the potential of generating solar heat for industrialprocesses with linear Fresnel collectors in the Middle East and NorthAfrica to be around 460 TWh. Based on a comprehensive top-down ap-proach Morocco and Tunisia are identified as most promising. Withinthe bottom-up approach 10 companies in Morocco and 7 companies inTunisia were visited and their potential assessed in more detail. More-over, the most promising industries were examined on potential benefitsand challenges. Furthermore, the major legislations and institutions ofthe countries are included in the assessment. A single variable sensitivityanalysis examines the factors which influence the internal rate of returnand thermal energy costs of solar process heat systems. A reference sce-nario shows that currently solar process heat systems with linear Fresnelcollectors are not feasible in Morocco or Tunisia. An institutional com-parison identifies most suitable support schemes for solar process heatsystems. Based on the results the study provides recommendations forpolicy makers and the private sector.

I thank my correctors, Prof. Dr. Klaus Vajen, Dr. Sayed Kaseb,Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus and especially my academic supervisorChristoph Lauterbach, as well as all the staff from Industrial Solar,especially Christian Zahler and Tobias Schwind for the constantsupport, helpful advice and inspiration. Without them, the thesiscould not have been completed.

Contents1. Introduction 7

1.1. Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81.2. Literature review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

2. Fundamentals 102.1. Basic solar energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102.2. Collection of solar energy with linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

2.2.1. Optical and thermal analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132.2.2. Components of linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152.2.3. Specific advantages of linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162.2.4. Cost and yields of linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

2.3. Integration of solar heat in industrial processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192.3.1. Basic concepts for integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192.3.2. Storage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212.3.3. Further effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

2.4. Tools for financial analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252.4.1. Investment appraisal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252.4.2. Further financial tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

3. Top down approach - energy situation in Middle East and North Africa 303.1. Energy supply and demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 303.2. Potential for renewable energies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313.3. Overview of countries and selection for bottom up assessment . . . . . . . . . . 313.4. Industrial heat demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323.5. Solar process heat at medium temperatures in Middle East and North Africa . . 353.6. Suitable sectors for process heat generation at medium temperatures . . . . . . 363.7. Challenges for solar heat in industrial processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

4. Bottom up assessment 424.1. Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

4.1.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 424.1.2. The potential and rationale for renewable energies . . . . . . . . . . . . . 434.1.3. Institutional framework for renewable energies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444.1.4. Industry in Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47

5

4.1.5. Qualitative assessment of solar process heat in Morocco . . . . . . . . . 494.2. Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

4.2.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 524.2.2. The potential and rationale for renewable energies . . . . . . . . . . . . . 534.2.3. Institutional framework for renewable energies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 544.2.4. Industry in Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 564.2.5. Qualitative assessment of solar process heat in Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . 57

4.3. Comparison of countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59

5. Economic and institutional assessment of solar process heat in Middle East andNorth Africa 615.1. Variables and sensitivity analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 615.2. Reference scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655.3. Institutions for solar industrial process heat in the Middle East and North Africa 67

5.3.1. Support schemes in Middle East and North Africa . . . . . . . . . . . . 685.3.2. Analysis of support schemes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

6. Summary and conclusions 71

References 74

List of Abbreviations 85

Appendix 92

A. Energy tariffs in Morocco and Tunisia 92

B. Gasgrid in Tunisia 93

C. Food companies listed at the Moroccan and Tunisian stock exchange 94

D. Exemplary calculation for reference case 95

E. Economic potentials for renewable energies in Middle East and North Africa andfurther energy data 97

6

1. IntroductionToday´s society is more than ever dependant on energy. Yet, within the last decades challengesof the current energy supply system became apparent. Global reserves of fossil fuels are on de-cline and the strong increase of energy prices impedes social and economic development. At thesame time increasing emissions are responsible for the anthropogenic part of climate change.Since the publication of the Stern report (Stern, 2007), also the economic dimensions of climatechange are acknowledged. Furthermore, the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels have se-vere impacts on human health and the environment. Thus, major changes in the energy supplysystem are necessary. In the last years the use of renewable energies (RE) increased. Yet, theystill play only a minor role in industrial production, although industry is responsible for around33 % of total energy demand according to the United Nations Industrial Development Organi-zation (UNIDO) (UNIDO, 2011). The same study also expects that the industrial productiongrows by a factor of four until 2050, which highlights the crucial importance to address REin industry. As will be shown in Section 3.4 heat is the dominant energy form in industrialproduction. Several studies (see Section 1.2) already assessed the potential of solar heat forindustrial processes (SHIP) and all found that application is far behind the potential. Whilemost SHIP assessments were restricted to non-concentrating solar collectors and regionally fo-cussed on Europe this study differs in three aspects. First, it takes not only a pure technicalapproach (e.g. energy characteristics) but also considers industrial and socio-economic datawhich are crucial for industrial decision makers.Second, it examines Middle East and North Africa1 (MENA), this region was so far studied onlyonce (Reiners, 2011). The total energy demand of MENA is small compared to other regionsbut sufficiently large, and the countries similar enough, to justify a focussed examination.Third, due to the high share of direct irradiation in MENA, as well as the continuous develop-ment of concentrating technologies, it focuses on SHIP at higher temperatures with concentrat-ing collectors (SHIPc) . In respect to the technology, the focus is on linear Fresnel collectors(LFC), under the hypothesis that they have inherent advantages for SHIPc (see Section 2.2.3).Expanding the scope to higher temperatures allows to include more processes. Moreover, whensteam is considered in comparison to hot water, the overall potential further raises due to thehigh energy needed for evaporation2.Thus, it is the objective to identify countries and industries within MENA which are most

1This study covers Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, SaudiArabia, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. The Palestinian Territories and Israelare not considered.

2Energy demand to heat water from 20◦C to 100◦C without evaporation is around 340 kJ/kg. To evaporateit at 100◦C it needs an additional 2200 kJ/kg.

7

promising for SHIPc taking social, economic, industrial and institutional aspects into account.Sometimes SHIP and SHIPc can be treated analogously, sometimes differentiation is crucial.

Social dimensionEven though the topic is mainly technical and economical it also has an important social di-mension. First, fossil fuel combustion causes health and environmental problems which effecthuman development. Moreover, with ongoing technical development and raising energy pricesRE will be the cheaper energy source in the mid-term. If a country lacks behind in this tran-sition process (technical know how, awareness, human capacities, institutions) it will have acompetitive disadvantage in the future which impedes social and economic development.

1.1. MethodologyThis section discusses the methodology applied within this study. The analytical part is com-prised of five different approaches.First, within the top-down approach 16 MENA countries are compared and the countries withcomparatively high potential for SHIP, whereas a variety of factors is taken into account, areidentified. Moreover, industries are compared in respect to the temperature levels applied.Second, within the bottom-up approach the countries with high potential are studied in moredetail. 17 companies from promissing industries were assessed on key criteria like: (i) roofstructure, (ii) solar share, (iii) process temperature, (iv) supply temperature, (v) heat carrier,(vi) capital, (vii) annual days of production, (viii) hours of reduction per day. For some of thecriteria the result can only be estimated3. The selection of companies was mainly based oninternet research of websites for industrial development4. There was no strict methodology forthe selection of companies but size was a key criteria5(e.g. turnover, employees). For this studythe companies were made anonymous. The approach used within the bottom up part of thisstudy is sampling - examining a small number of enterprises and drawing conclusions aboutthe population. For statistically valid results the sampling has to adhere to several conditions,as discussed in (Freedman et al., 1997). Since they could not be fulfilled within this study theresults are not statistically sound but provide a confined insight.Third, within the sensitivity analysis eleven input factors are assessed on their relative impact.Forth, within the reference scenarios several scenarios are discussed which are based on actual

3The solar share for example depends on a varying demand. Moreover, often not all area which theoreticallycan be covered will be be available for installation.

4for Morocco: http://www.emergence.gov.ma, for Tunisia: http://www.tunisianindustry.nat.tn5as shown in Figure 6 the technology is only suitable for comparatively big installations

8

country data but not on specific companies. This allows to compare focus countries and dif-ferent systems (steam, cooling). Finally, within an institutional comparison the countries areassessed and good institutional frameworks identified.

1.2. Literature reviewWithin the literature on SHIP there are two major approaches. Some studies use a bottom upapproach, extrapolating a total potential from some assessed companies. Others use a top downapproach, based on aggregated industrial figures. UNIDO found that solar thermal energy cancontribute 1,556 TWh/y (≈ 3%) to industrial energy demand by 20506 (UNIDO, 2011). Astudy on the ”Potential Of Solar Heat for Industrial Processes” (POSHIP) (Schweiger et al.,2001) estimated the potential for solar heat at medium temperatures for Spain and Portugal asaround 5.8 TWh/year. Another study, ”PROduzieren MIt SOlar Energie” (Engl.: ”Producingwith Solar Energy” - PROMISE)(Müller et al., 2004) found a potential of 1.5 TWh/year inAustria. The European Solar Thermal Industry Federation (ESTIF) identified the potential forEurope and the key challenges for SHIP (ESTIF, 2006). The Ecoheatcool report(Ecoheatcooland Euroheat and Power, 2006) studied the total European heat market, also for Industry. Aspart of Task 33/IV of the International Energy Agency (IEA) a report (Vannoni et al., 2008)summarized the studies mentioned above. In 2009 another study estimated the total solarthermal potential for Europe (Weiss and Biermayr, 2009). A recent study assessed the totalpotential for SHIP in Germany (Lauterbach et al., 2011b) and examined nine sectors in moredetail. It found a potential of 15.6 TWh/year (3.1 % of the total industrial heat demand). Theresults of the various studies (e.g. potential in TWh) can not be directly compared since theydiffer, inter alia, in the temperature range and the country size. Nevertheless, they all founda potential of around 3-4.5 % of the total industrial heat demand (Lauterbach et al., 2011b),and that the installed capacity is far behind the potential. Some papers also deal with specificprojects and technical challenges like (Krüger et al., 2010). There are two studies examiningthe MENA region. Solaterm found great potential for solar thermal energy collection, but littleusage (Drück et al., 2007). Reiners estimated the total potential for solar steam production inindustry for the Mediterranean region7 to be 325 – 373 TWh (Reiners, 2011). Despite smallerdifferences all studies found similar results. First, there is a large potential for SHIP. Second,the most promising industries are (i) food and beverages, (ii) textile, (iii) plastics, (iv) pulpand paper as well as (v) chemical. Third, there are still major challenges, the most importantones are listed below in Section 3.7.

6Biomass contributes around 8 % today and is expected to continue its dominant role.7Including MENA and southern Europe

9

2. FundamentalsThis chapter provides fundamental knowledge necessary for this study. Section 2.1 introducesthe principles of solar energy collection. Section 2.2 describes the technology of the LFCcollector and Section 2.3 lists basic concepts for the integration of solar thermal energy inindustrial processes. Finally, Section 2.4 introduces financial tools for the economic analysis.

2.1. Basic solar energyThe radiation at the earth surface is determined by the geometrical relation of the earth surfaceto the sun as well as absorption and scattering processes within the atmosphere. Their effectdepends on atmospheric particles (aerosols8) and the distance within the atmosphere whichthe sun beams have to cross. The later is usually expressed as the atmospheric mass (AM),the distance relative to the path vertically upward. The global irradiance (G) is divided intothe beam irradiance (Gb) and the diffuse irradiance (Gd) . Due to its diurnal and seasonalvariation the irradiance is commonly expressed as the integrated value over one year9. Withinthe MENA region Gb can reach up to 2, 800kWh/m2/y according to a study by the DeutschesZentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt10 (DLR, 2005).

Solar GeometryThe incidence angle of solar beams on the earth can be fully described by two angles.

• zenith angle = ΘZ between the beam and the surface normal

• azimuth angle = γ between the projection beam on the horizontal plane and south

In order to derive them, the solar declination angle and the hour angle are necessary. Since theearth axis of rotation is always tilted by 23.45◦ relative to the axis normal to the ecliptic plane,the solar declination angle - the angle between the sun earth center line and its projection onthe equator - changes between ±23.5 % over the year. Moreover, the hour angle - the angle theearth would have to turn to bring a specific spot directly under the sun - provides the positionof the earth to the sun independet of our local times. Thus, the incidence angle depends on aspecific spot, date and time.

8Liquid or solid particles in the air (e.g. water vapour, dust, combustion products, volcano particles)9To reduce variations between the years data is sometimes provided for a typical meteorological year (TMY).

10German Aerospace Centre

10

Solar resource assessment for concentrating collectorsConcentrating collectors only work with Gb, which is also called direct normal irradtion (DNI),whereas non-concentrating collectors or photovoltaic cells can use direct and diffuse irradiation.Their input resource is the global irradiance. The annual variability of Gb compared to G ismuch higher since the first is strongly affected from clouds (absorption or reflection) and aerosols(scattering) (Lohmann et al., 2006). For measuring DNI data there are various approaches. Itcan be measured with pyrheliometers from the ground, with satellite images or in a hybridmethod where the advantages of the ground data (spatial accurateness) and the satellite data(availability of long time series) are combined. Today various institutions offer DNI data11 whichdiffer in measurements and / or their analysis. Suri et al. compared six spatial databases andfound the differences in global irradiation to be 7 % on average (Suri, 2008). For DNI it can beexpected to be higher, as mentioned above. Moreover, they also found higher differences in areaswith low quality and density of data. Thus, for the MENA region were data is scarce and often oflow quality high variations between different sources are expected12 and examples can be seen inTable 1. This is a major obstacle for solar projects with concentrating collectors. Furthermore,

Table 1: Differences in DNI data from various institutions for MENA12

Location DLR Meteonorm UNEP (SWERA) Max Diff in %DNI in kWh/m2/y

Cairo, Eypt 2300 2041 2117 11Casablanca, Morocco 2100 1798 1570 25Tunis, Tunisia 1900 1805 1642 14

satellite data should be validated with ground measurements; Masdar overestimated the DNI fortheir Shams 1 project by more than 10 % with satellite images (Deign, 2012). While validationcan be done for concentrated solar power (CSP) projects it can be an obstacle for SHIPc sincevalidation costs (≈ 30.000 e) are comparatively higher due to lower investments. As a firststep for country classification DLR published CSP performance indicators for MENA countries(Trieb et al., 2005). It is an average yield per area for a specific country. It is based on theDNI on the ground (after correcting for atmospheric disturbances) on a 5km*5km spatial and0.5 h temporal resolution. All areas which are unsuitable for CSP power generation (e.g. slope,restricted areas, water bodies etc.) are excluded. However, the differences in DNI within a11for example: Mines-ParisTech (http://www.helioclim.org), DLR (http://www.solemi.de), or Meteonorm

(http://www.meteonorm.com)12A DLR project (2010 – 2012) produces a solar atlas for the Mediterranean to address this issue.12Data from (Trieb et al., 2005) and (UNEP, 2005) is read from maps which is less exact. SWERA = Solar

and Wind Energy Resource Assessment

11

country are often as a large as between countries. Looking at Morocco for example, the CSPperformance indicator is 2600 kWh/m2/a while the irradiation in the major industrial areasis around 1800 kWh/m2/a (Meteonorm 6.1). Even taking into account that there are majoruncertainties with both measurements there is still a vast difference. Thus, aggregated valuesare not a good indicator to identify potential for SHIPc.

2.2. Collection of solar energy with linear Fresnel collectorsThe principle of LFC13 is to concentrate the sunlight on an absorber tube that is fixed abovethe collector field. However, unlike in parabolic trough collectors (PTC), this is done by severallinearly aligned reflectors (see Figure 1), each with a characteristic curvature.

Figure 1: Model of a linear Fresnel collector (Industrial Solar GmbH)

Like all concentrating solar collectors LFC can only use direct irradiation. LFC have twocharacteristic planes – the longitudinal plane standing vertically on the collector field andrunning parallel to the absorber and the transversal plane standing vertically on the collectorfield but crossing it (see Figure 2). The three crucial angles in a LFC are defined in Table 2.

Table 2: Characteristic angles in linear fresnel collectors

Angle DefinitionθT The transversal angle between the z-axis and the pro-jection of the solar position in the transversal plane.

θT = arctan(| sin(γ)| tan(θZ))

θL The longitudinal angle between the z-axis and theprojection of the solar position in the longitudinal plane.

θL = arctan(cos(γ) tan(θZ))

θI The incidence angle between the solar position andthe transversal plane.

θI = arctan(cos(γ) sin(θZ))

13The name of this technology dates back to Augustin-Jean Fresnel (1788 – 1827). First demonstrations weredone by Giovanni Francia (1911-1980) in Italy.

12

Figure 2: Crucial planes in linear Fresnel collectors (Mertins, 2009)

TrackingSince the absorber is fixed above the collector field all reflectors have a different inclinationtowards the sun. The inclination angle ϕpr (Equation 1) of the primary receivers depends onthe horizontal (Xpr) and vertical distance (Hrc+Z) from the absorber as well as on the transversalangle θT. All mirrors turn with the same angular speed (15◦/ h) and can be operated by a singlemotor. However, they are commonly operated individually or in smaller groups for reasons ofcontrolling and to avoid a complete break down.

ϕpr =θT − arctan( Xpr

Hrc+Z)

2(1)

2.2.1. Optical and thermal analysis

Optical effectsIn LFC the primary reflectors are slightly bend in order to focus the radiation on the absorber.Thus, radiation parallel to the main axis of the reflectors causes a single focal line. However,since the mirrors are not normal14 to the incoming radiation LFC always suffer from an astigma-tism (Mertins, 2009) (see Figure 3), which reduces efficiency. Moreover, further effects reducethe optical efficiency (ηth).

• Cosine losses due to low positions of the sun14If the central mirror is normal to the incoming radiation it is in the shade of the secondary reflector.

13

Figure 3: Astigamatism in linear Fresnel collectors (Mertins, 2009)

• Shading due to absorber, structure or secondary reflector

• Occultation of reflected radiation at the back of other mirrors

• Line end losses when the reflection misses the absorber in the longitudinal axis

• Optical errors due to material, construction or tracking

• Absorption of radiation in the primary / secondary reflector or the outer absorber skin

The optical efficiency ηopt takes all theses effects into accounts and sets the thermal outputin relation to the incoming energy. Since the reflectors change their position to the sun theaperture area is not constant in LFC. Thus, the area of the primary receiver Apr is used as inEquation 2.

ηopt =q

GbApr(2)

Effects of orientationThe yield of LFC depend on their orientation, whereas north – south orientated collectors havehigher yields over the year (roughly 5 - 8 %) while east – west orientated collectors have longeroperating hours and thereby higher yields in winter times. For the application in industry bothorientations have advantages (see Section 2.3.3) and thus orientation is not a decisive factor.Two exemplary yield profiles are shown in Figure 4.

Thermal effectsThe energy yield of solar thermal collectors can be approximated by Equation 3. Concentratingcollectors bundle the radiation on the absorber in order to achieve higher temperatures (T) ofthe heat fluid. The concentration ratio (CR) is defined as the ratio of the aperture (Aap) to

14

.....

Jan

.

Feb

.

Mar

.

Apr

.

May

.

Jun

.

Jul

.

Aug

.

Sep

.

Oct

.

Nov

.

Dec

.

Year

.

0

.

5

.

10

.

averageyields

inMW

th/da

y

.

. ..North – South . ..East – West

Figure 4: Monthly average daily yields of a collector with 2816 m2 apperture area in Korba, Tunisia(DNI 1898 W/m2) (data: Meteonorm 6.1, simulation: Industrial Solar GmbH)

the absorber area (Aabs), CR =AapAabs

. It is ultimately limited by the relation of the sun to theearth15. Heat losses depend on the temperatur difference between the heat fluid (T) and theambient temperature (Ta).

qth = ηoptGb −Aap

Aabs[ϵσ(T 4 − T a

4) + α(T − T a)] (3)

The collected energy ηopt ∗ Gb is reduced by thermal losses due to convection and radiation.Both effects depend on the operating temperature of the system and the specific materialproperties (emissivity, conductivity). With higher temperature differences or lower irradiationthe collector efficiency ηcol drops, as can be seen in Figure 5.

2.2.2. Components of linear Fresnel collectors

For the primary reflectors of LFC flat mirrors can be used, which are bended mechanically.This is possible due to the comparatively large distance of the primary reflector to the absorberand can drive down the costs. The collector field is defined by the number of primary receivers,their width and length as well as the distance between the reflectors. The glass of the mirrorsshould be thin and with a low iron content to reduce absorption16. At the same time, the glassand the reflective layer have to withstand harsh environmental conditions.In LFC secondary reflectors are used since not all the reflected radiation hits the absorber15CRmax (2 dimensional) = 212 whereas CRmax(3 dimensional) = 45,033. Commercial LFCs have a CR ≈ 3016Flabeg specifications for flat mirrors for CSP: thickness 0.95 mm – 4 mm, minimal reflectivity 93.5 % – 95 %

15

... ..0

.100

.200

.300

.400

.500

.0 .

20

.

40

.

60

.

temperature difference (T - Ta) in ◦K

.

ηth

in%

.

. ..200 W/m2 . ..400 W/m2 . ..800 W/m2 . ..1000 W/m2

Figure 5: Thermal efficiency of LFC (aperture width = 26 m, ηopt = 0.669) (Mertins, 2009)

directly. Thereby more reflectors can be installed per receiver. Furthermore, the secondaryreflector reduces convection losses at the absorber.The absorber pipe collects the incoming radiation and conveys it to the heat carrier. There-fore, its selective coating should have a low emittance and high absorptance17. Moreover, it hasto withstand high temperatures. Sometimes the absorber pipe is protected with a glass coverfrom below. In other installations vacuumised tubes are used as in PTC. In order to avoidclogging only treated water can be used.

2.2.3. Specific advantages of linear Fresnel collectors

The selection of the optimal solar thermal collector depends on the intended application, mainlyprocess temperature. LFC are suitable for medium temperatures (100◦C – 400◦C). Below themajor advantages of LFC are listed, following a study on the Solarmundo project (Häberleet al., 2002). Most of them have to be understood in comparison to PTC.

• The usage of flat mirrors offers great potential for cost reduction (Kalogirou, 2004),(Häberle et al., 2002).

• Low wind-loads reduce breaking of mirrors and reduce costs for motors and gears (Morinet al., 2006).

• LFC can have lower investment cost and longer life time since no flexible high pressurejoints are needed like in PTC (Häberle et al., 2002).

17Specifications of Schott PTR® 70: emittance ≤ 10 % and absorptance of ≥ 95 %

16

• Higher land use efficiency compared to PTC since collector field can be more densilypacked (Häberle et al., 2002).

• Low operation and maintenance cost due to easy access and cleaning (Häberle et al.,2002), (Morin et al., 2012).

• Multiple land use since collectors can be installed on rooftops (Häberle et al., 2002).

• Advantages in direct steam generation (DSG) since most radiation hits absorber frombelow.

However, also PTC have major advantages. They can achieve even higher temperatures dueto greater concentration and there is much more experience in the operation. Which technologyis most suitable for a specific application has to be seen case by case, nevertheless for SHIPc

there are several advantages of LFC.

2.2.4. Cost and yields of linear Fresnel collectors

Even tough PTC is the dominant technology for concentrated solar energy in the last yearsmore companies started to work on LFC18. Despite the same operating principle the designsof the systems differ. For electricity generation LFC are usually bigger (greater CR to reachhigher temperatures). Moreover, costs depend on system size as shown in Figure 6.

..... 0.

200

.

400

.

600

.

800

.

1,000

.0.5 MW

.1 MW

.10 MW

.

Capacity

.

Costs

perm

2

Figure 6: Cost function of linear Fresnel collectors (Industrial Solar GmbH)

18For example Areva (France), CNIM (France), Fera (Italy), Ferrostaal (Germany), Novatec Solar (Germany),Solar Power Group (Germany), Soltigua (Italy)

17

In an attempt to compare the break even of LFC with PTC for electricity generation Morinet al. found that ”little cost data for commercial LFC is published today” (Morin et al., 2012).Apart from the uncertainties of absolute prices, projects below a certain size (e.g. 1 MW) arenot reasonable due to the cost structure. At the same time, bigger projects become increasinglyeconomical. The reason for the great drop in prices is the high amount for fixed costs (pumps,control, planning). To compare prices with other technologies it is important to use the correctvariable, for energy it is usually the CSHG (see Section 2.4). Total installation costs of projectsare misleading since they also include costs for the power block, an absorption chiller or steamstorage. Also the costs per m2 for SHIPc can not compared directly with costs of power plantssince the later are usually of a size of 50 MW and above.

Yields of Linear Fresnel CollectorsDue to the course of the sun and the various impacts on DNI (see Section 2.1) the yields ofLFC vary during the day and over the year. The objectives, when applying SHIP, are low costsper solar generated thermal energy (CSHG) and a reasonable internal rate of return (IRR).Therefore, the solar share should be high and wastes at peak times reduced. Average monthlyyields of a collector are shown in Figure 4, Figure 7 shows some exemplary daily productioncurves.

... ..5

.6

.7

.8

.9

.10

.11

.12

.13

.14

.15

.16

.17

.18

.19

.0 .

500

.

1,000

.

1,500

.

Hour of the day

.

Powe

rin

kWth

.

. ..Summar day (north - south) . ..Summer day (east - west)

. ..Spring day (north - south) . ..Spring day (east - west)

. ..Winter day (north - south) . ..Winter day (east - west)

Figure 7: Daily yield profile of a collector with 2816 m2 apperture area in Korba, Tunisia(DNI 1898 W/m2) (data: Meteonorm 6.1, simulation: Industrial Solar GmbH)

18

2.3. Integration of solar heat in industrial processesApart from the general challenges of solar energy a major obstacle for SHIP is the integrationin industrial processes. For industry a reliable supply of energy at constant specifications(pressure, temperature) is crucial. Even short disruptions within the production process cancause great losses. A fossil fired back-up boiler is always available. The integration of SHIPc

depends on the demands of the specific processes (e.g. heat carrier), the circumstances at thesite (e.g. area for installations), the current energy supply system (e.g. centralized system) andthe load. Moreover, due to their fluctuations at least some storage is beneficial for application.Complex integration can drive up the costs substantially in both design and investment. Asplanning and know how were already identified as major obstacles for SHIP in Europe (ESTIF,2006) this will be even more severe in MENA. In order to identify suitable applications forSHIPc in MENA, integration has to be taken into account. This chapter briefly describes themain concepts.

2.3.1. Basic concepts for integration

Process or system level integrationIn most industrial installations with thermal energy demand at higher temperatures there is acentral steam supply (companies with parallel supply of steam and hot water are not consideredhere). For the integration of solar thermal energy there are three different possibilities, (i) steamgeneration on the system level, (ii) direct coupling to a specific process and (iii) pre-heating ofboiler fed water, as shown in Figure 8.

Figure 8: Integration of solar collectors in processes (Schweiger et al., 2001)

19

The later is not considered since it is rather suitable for low temperature collectors. Froman energetic point of view it is reasonable to provide the processes directly with heat at theneeded temperature. This is repeatedly stressed in the studies on SHIP.

”... one should look at the actual temperature needed by the process itself andnot at the temperature of the heat carrier being used...”(Vannoni et al., 2008)

This statement holds on a macro level. When heat is generated at higher temperatures thanneeded at the process energy is wasted (thermal losses increase with the temperature differenceT - Ta). However, the situation differs from the perspective of the individual firm. First, heav-ing only one central heat supply at the maximum temperature is easier than running variouscircuits. Second, supplying heat at temperatures well above the actual process reduces themass flow rate as well as the dimensions of the heat exchangers and thereby investment costs.Third, if the process is running already or will be changed in the future there might be spaceconstraints which undermine the installation of additional equipment (or larger hat exchang-ers). Forth, various different cycles make the system more complex. Finally, a centralized andstandardized system is also more flexible for changes within the facility over time. Yet, if theheat is supplied centrally the system is dominated by the process with the highest temperaturesand thermal losses increase. Schweiger et all. assessed whether integration on the system levelis possible and found that ”in almost all industries, the coupling of the solar system to thecentral heat supply system is possible” (Schweiger et al., 2001). Nevertheless, when a processhas large energy requirements at low temperatures it might well be reasonable to take it off thecentral system and supply the energy efficiently at low temperatures.

Direct steam generation or heat fluidConcentrating solar collectors are capable to achieve temperatures high enough for steam gen-eration. Yet, while steam is difficult to handle, high temperatures (e.g. up to 200◦C) can alsobe achieved with pressurized water. Adding a blend to the water can further increase the evap-oration temperature. In industry steam is a common heat carrier, thus efficient direct steamgeneration (DSG) is very beneficial for SHIPc. It reduces investment costs (heat exchanger,thermo-oil) and the use of environmental harmful substances. The three solar steam generationconcepts are listed below (Kalogirou, 2009).

• steam-flash – Pressurized water is circulated through the collector and afterwards flashedto steam. In order to prevent evaporation high pressures are needed in the system.Moreover, temperature differences to the ambient are higher since there is only sensibleheat. The higher temperatures also increase thermal losses.

20

• direct steam – A two phase flow circulates in the collector. It needs less energy for pumpingand the thermal losses are also reduced. However, air bubbles can cause flow instabilitiesand high local temperature / pressure gradients which increase material stresses. Alsothe operation becomes more difficult, especially in large collector fields.

• indirect steam – A heat fluid is circulated through collector while steam is generatedusing a heat exchanger. While this concept is comparatively easy to operate the heatexchanger and fluid increase the investment costs. Moreover, thermo-oils have otherinherent deficits. They are often toxic and easy flammable, especially when startingdecomposition. Furthermore, they have poorer heat transfer characteristics than water.Thus, higher flow rates and temperature differences are necessary which decrease overallefficiency.

Direct steam generation has a great potential since it increases efficiency and reduces invest-ment costs (no heat exchanger or thermo-oil), yet the technique is still in its infancy. On thepower plant level there is a research project in Almeria, for SHIPc there is a pilot project in aGerman aluminium factory (Dunst, 2011).

Open or Closed SystemsThe differentiation between open and closed systems refers more to low temperature collectors(especially for air) but is mentioned here for completeness. Within open systems the heatcarrier is released to the process (e.g. in drying). For wet systems one application could bewashing. In SHIPc this is not reasonable due to high thermal energy losses. Moreover, in mostapplications and locations the water for the collectors need purification, which is also energyintensive.

2.3.2. Storage

Fluctuations over seconds to seasons are an intrinsic feature of solar energy. At the same timealso industrial production varies (e.g. batches). Fitting supply to demand is a major challengefor SHIP which can be eased by applying storage systems. Moreover, in hybrid systems (solarand fossil) it can allow the boiler to run at optimal efficiency. Compared to electricity, heat iscomparatively easy to store. Nevertheless in practice an appropriate storage system can driveup the costs of a SHIP installation substantially. Figure 9 provides an overview of the variousheat storage concepts following Fisch (Fisch et al., 2005).

21

heat storage system

thermal storage

sensible heat

liquid solid

latent heat

solid – liquid liquid – gaseous

chemical storage

reaction heat

Figure 9: Thermal storage concepts (Fisch et al., 2005)

In direct storage the heat carrier is stored directly while in indirect storage the heat is storedin a separate medium. Steam accumulators (see Figure 10) are well suited for short storagetimes. They are charged by raising the temperature in a pressurized vessel and discharged byreleasing steam with lowering the pressure. By their very nature, steam characteristics changesince there is a pressure drop while releasing - this can further complicate the integration in anindustrial process if the steam is needed in a narrow temperature range.

Figure 10: Steam accumulator (Steinmann and Eck, 2005)

The latent heat concept overcomes this problem by applying phase change materials. Therebylarge amounts of energy can be stored at constant temperatures (Hirn and Mexer, 2011), andsteam at constant characteristics can be released. For temperatures with several hundreddegrees alkaline salt systems are used. However, today all the storage systems are still veryexpensive. All storage systems drive up investment costs. Thus, it is reasonable to identify

22

applications where no storage is necessary. Smaller amounts of heat can often be stored in aprocess - e.g. heating a bath or in the boiler. For solar cooling hot water tanks are sufficientwhich are much cheaper compared to steam storage systems. Moreover, for industry cold roomscan also be used as a storage to a certain degree if the temperature can be lowered beyondthe normal operation point. Even though storage is a crucial issue for extensive application ofSHIP today there is still large potential where no storage is needed.

2.3.3. Further effects

Orientation of the solar field As was shown in Figure 4 the orientation of the collectorfield effects the annual yield. Thus, for concentrating systems the orientation is already acrucial question in system integration. If the solar field is oriented east – west, the annualyyield is lower compared to north – south, but the yields in winter are higher. In respect tothe integration, especially if a process is fed directly, there can be good reasons to install east– west. This question was discussed on an actual plant in Switzerland (Marty and Frank, 2011).

Effects of a solar field on the boiler efficiencyEven though, with a sufficient big storage, a solar only production is technically possible thisis not feasible. The realistic option for the integration of SHIPc is to operate as a fuel saver,where the conventional boiler produces steam during the night and when the irradiation isinsufficient. The boiler efficiency depends inter alia on the flue gas temperature and stacklosses, radiation and convection losses, the air-fuel ratio and the operating conditions (∆T).Moreover, when comparing boilers it is also important to consider their operation principle19.If a boiler operates at a lower capacity the absolute thermal losses remain constant and raiserelative to the steam produced. Also, if the boiler has to be turned on and off more oftenthis reduces the overall efficiency. Thus, integrating SHIPc can reduce boiler efficiency. Atthe same time, in large industries with several boilers efficiency might be raised if one boilercan be switched of completely. It is not possible to define the impacts of the integration of asolar field on a boiler in general, however, they can be severe and have to be taken into account.

Boiler conceptsThere are mainly two different types of boiler in industry. In fire-tube boilers (see Figure 11),the predominant type, the exhaust gases are circulated several times through a large vesselfilled with water at the bottom and steam at the top. In high speed steam generators, water iscirculated in a coil which is placed in the flame (see Figure 12). The mere presence of different19For example, condensing water boilers have by their operation principle a higher efficiency.

23

Figure 11: Fire-tube boiler (Viessmann GmbH,2010) Figure 12: High speed steam generator

(Spirax Sarco, 2011)

concepts shows that neither is superior. Also in respect to the integration of SHIPc both havespecific strengths and weaknesses which are summarized in Table 3.

Table 3: Comparison of boiler concept (Spirax Sarco, 2011)

Fire-tube boilers High speed steam generatorsAdvantages: Advantages:+ easy to connect several boilers + smaller investment+ dry steam + little area+ integrated storage + can be installed everywhere

+ less water treatment necessaryDisadvantages: Disadvantages:- high investment - wet steam- large secured area needed - no constant pressure- trained staff necessary - maintenance intensive pump- long heat up time - losses in start up

Poly-generationA measure which is commonly proposed to increase energy efficiency is poly-generation, theproduction of two or more useful outputs (see Table 4). In industry the potential for poly-generation is very high due to the demand of various types of energy (mechanical, electrical,thermal). Poly-generation has environmental and economic advantages. First, it reduces fuelconsumption by making use of waste heat. Second, it allows to optimize output for prices - for

24

Table 4: Outputs in poly-generation at various temperature levels

Temperature level Process250◦C – 400◦C electricity generation in conventional steam turbine

electricity generation in organic Rankine cycleindustrial process heat

100◦C – 250◦C industrial process heatsea water desalination with multi-effect distillationmulti-stage absorption chillerregeneration of steam after turbine

40◦C – 100◦C industrial process heatsingle-stage absorption chillerdistrict heating

example to produce electricity only during peak hours. Third, energy can be stored in the easiestform. Yet, at the same time there are also inherent disadvantages. It increases the investmentcosts and if the fuel (solar energy) is constrained the machines can not run under full capacitysimultaneously. Moreover, installations become much more complex - both for planning andoperation. For industrial purposes the combined use of heat and cooling is especially reasonablesince chillers are often run by expensive electricity. Yet, of course poly-generation can also beapplied with conventional fuel fired boilers.

2.4. Tools for financial analysisFor assessing and comparing the situation in companies energy yields have to be transferredin monetary units. Within this part major approaches for investment appraisal are discussed,later further financial tools are introduced.

2.4.1. Investment appraisal

For assessing whether an investment in SHIP is reasonable a financial analysis has to be done.This section presents the major dynamic20 approaches for investment appraisal, and brieflytouches on their underlying assumptions as well as inherent strengths and weaknesses. This isnecessary, since within the literature on accounting there is no unanimity (Hering, 2008). Thethree approaches are (i) capital value method, (ii) annuity method and the (iii) internal rate ofreturn (IRR) (Kruschwitz, 2011). Since the first two bring the same investment decision the

20Static approaches do not respect the time when a cash flow occurs and are thus not considered here.

25

annuity method is not discussed.For the net present value (NPV), a capital value method, all cash flows are discounted totime t = 0. An investment should be realized if the NPV is positive and higher than all otheralternatives. It can be calculated with Equation (4), whereas LT is the the lifetime, t a specificyear, r the discounting factor and CF the cash flow (returns – expenditures).

NPV =LT∑t=1

CFt

(1 + r)t(4)

The major problem of the NPV is to select an appropriate discount rate r. Often the interestrate is used under the rigid assumption of a perfect and unrestricted21 capital market (Götzeet al., 2008). The major advantages of the NPV are that it is an absolute evaluation and allowsa straight forward interpretation (Crundwell, 2008).The internal rate of return is another investment appraisal method. The basic approach isto ask, under which discount rate the NPV becomes 0, as shown in Equation (5).

IRR = {r | NPV =LT∑t=1

CFt

(1 + r)t!= 0} (5)

The IRR is highly controversial and some textbooks argue to abandon it completely due to itsinherent deficiencies (Kruschwitz, 2011). First, the equation to find the IRR can not directlybe solved22. Second, and more important, it is only a relative measure23. The most criticalissue, however, refers to the re-investment. The IRR can not be used to calculate the final valueafter the projects lifetime. This would imply, that ”financial investments yielding the IRR canbe made without limit. This assumption is often unrealistic, because IRR reflects cash flowsof the investment under consideration and not the opportunities in the capital market” (Götzeet al., 2008)24. For investments in SHIPc, with long lifetimes and increasing cash flows thisassumption is especially unrealistic.The modified internal rate of return (IRRM) is a variation of the IRR where the cash flowsare not reinvested with the IRR, but with the interest rate at the capital market (ibar). It can

21Perfect: debt rate = credit rate; unrestricted: money can always be invested and borrowed22There can be none, one, or several mathematical solutions.23If there are two investments, A and B, with the following cash flows A:(-1, 10) and B: (-100, 200) A has a

higher IRR even though most investors would favour B.24An investment will only be realized if the expected IRR is above the interest rate at the market. If there

is the possibility to invest with the same interest rate at the capital market there is no reason to take theinvestment risk at all.

26

be calculated with Equation (6).

IRRM = (1 + ibar) ∗LT

√√√√∑LTt=0

(CFt)(1+r)t

CINV

+ 1− 1 (6)

A complete discussion whether this assumption is completely suitable for investments in SHIPc

can not be done here. Since the Verband Deutscher Ingenierure25 (VDI) proposes this approachfor large solar thermal systems (VDI, 2011) the IRRM is used in the financial analysis below.

2.4.2. Further financial tools

Apart from the methods mentioned above other financial tools can provide further information.The payback period (PP), or amortization time, provides the time until an investment is paidback. It is not an indicator of the profitability of an investment and should only be used inaddition to other methods. For investments with long life time, like in RE, it is importantto use a dynamic amortization where cash flows vary over time. The PP can be found withEquation (7)

PP = min{t | NPV (t) = −CINV +LT∑t=1

CFt

(1 + r)t} (7)

As described above the PP is not an indicator about the profitability of investments. Neverthe-less, a study by the German Ministry of Environment found that 80 % of the assessed Germancompanies use the PP as an investment criteria (Jochem et al., 2008). This is a systemic biasagainst projects with long life times, even if they are highly profitable and especially impedesinvestments in RE.The costs for solar heat generation (CSHG) provide the costs per unit of solar generatedthermal energy, including the pay back of the investment over the lifetime. They can becalculated with Equation (8) (VDI, 2011). The investment costs (CINV) are the total instal-lation costs (including piping etc.) subtracted by subsidies. The operation and maintenancecosts (CO&M) are for labour and material, whereas the consumption costs (CCons) are the costsfor the electricity consumed by the installation. For large installations it is suggested to useCCons = CkWh(el)/50 (VDI, 2011). Qsol is the annual energy yield. The annuity factor (fa) canbe found with Equation (9) (VDI, 2011). However, it has to be considered that the CSHG riseover the lifetime due to increasing costs for O&M and electricity.

CSHG =CINV ∗ fa + CO&M

Qsol

+ CCons (8)

25German Engineer Association

27

fa =(1 + ibar)

LT ∗ ibar(1 + ibar)LT − 1

(9)

The Greenhouse gas abatement costs, see Equation (10), (McKinsey, 2009) are an im-portant tool to compare different investments. They express the additional costs which arenecessary to reduce the emission of CO2eq. Thus, they are rather used by policy makers tocompare efficiency of environmental investments, for example whether to invest in CSP, inSHIP or in forestation26. For the calculation of abatements costs the NPVs of an investmentand an alternative (base case) have to be compared. However, this is restricted to direct finan-cial costs. Indirect benefits like the creation of jobs, or the reduction of electrical peak loadsthrough solar cooling are commonly not included even though they also have great influenceon policy making.

Abatement costs = (Full costs of CO2eq efficient alternative)− (Full costs of reference solution)(CO2eq from reference solution)− ( CO2eq from efficient alternative)

(10)

A sensitivity analysis (SA) can help to deal with uncertainties. Investments in RE arecharacterized by high front up costs and when estimating the feasibility major uncertaintiescan not be avoided, for example the development of fossil fuel prices. A SA asks ”what if”questions and allows to assess the impact of varying factors and on a model. It is done in fourmajor steps (Kruschwitz, 2011).

1. Selection of uncertain input factors and output function

2. Formulation of a mathematical model of the output function

3. Definition of an interval of variation

4. Analytical determination of the intervals of the output function for each input factor

From the perspective of an investor the objective of a SA is not no identify the factors withthe largest absolute impact, but rather the ones with the largest impact within an appropriateinterval27. In Section 5.1 the IRRM as well as the CSHG are examined as objective functionsin a single varying input analysis. Afterwards, the two most important factors are variedsimultaneously in respect to the IRRM.26McKinsey published various national and international reports comparing abatement measures (McKinsey,

2009)27The collector efficiency as well as the CAAGR of fossil fuels are unknown, however, in estimating the latter

there is much more uncertainty.

28

Summing up, the following was found. First, there are a variety of assessment tools whichdiffer in their assumptions and approaches. Thus, also the evaluation of SHIP depends on thechoice of the appraisal tool. Second, companies often base their investment decisions on thePP (Jochem et al., 2008), a method which is not suitable for evaluation and which systemicallybias RE investments.

29

3. Top down approach - energy situation in Middle East andNorth Africa

This chapter discusses the energy supply and demand in MENA, and the potential for RE.Afterwards the potential for SHIPc in MENA is assessed and suitable sectors identified. In theend, the major challenges for SHIP are mentioned.

3.1. Energy supply and demandEnergy demand and CO2 emissions in MENA are growing strongly for the last two decades asshown in Table 5. According to the IEA the total primary energy demand (TPED) in MENAgrew from 378 Mtoe in 2000 to 546 Mtoe28 in 2007 and is expected to raise to 1030 Mtoe in2030 (IEA, 2009). The main drivers are growth of the population29 (World Bank, 2011b) andthe gross domestic product (GDP)30.

Table 5: Energy demand and CO2 emissions in MENA (IEA, 2009)

Indicator Unit 1990 2007 2030 CAAGR in %(2007–2030)

TPED Mtoe 220 546 1030 2.8CO2 emissions Mt 588 1375 2495 2.6

The rising energy consumption poses great challenges on the countries. In addition to theones mentioned in Section 1 there are two more severe issues in MENA. Many governmentssupport energy consumption by subsidies. In times of rising energy prices this is an increasingburden on governmental budgets. Moreover, in some countries there are temporal or regionalenergy shortages (fuel, electricity at peak times) with high economic costs. Thus, the energychallenge is severe in MENA, but differs between the countries. Some MENA countries haveabundant fossil fuels and can continue their current extraction for more than 100 years31. Inothers resources are expected to deplete within the next two decades. In many countries thepoor can not afford rising energy prices and the the energy situation thereby also increases therisk of social unrest. It is clear that major changes are necessary to achieve social, economicand environmental sustainability of the energy system in MENA. Following an approach for the

28Not exactly the same countries are covered as in this study.29The CAAGR for population in MENA between 2000 and 2010 is 2 %.30The CAAGR for the GDP in MENA between 2000 and 2007 is 5 %.31Exact predictions are not possible, especially since with raising prices new extraction methods become feasible.

30

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) (Sutter, 2003) dimensions of sustainability are depictedin Table 6. All challenges mentioned above can be overcome by RE in the mid term. Whereasthe break even point of different RE varies, they all become cheaper while fossil fuels rise.

Table 6: Sustainability criteria (Sutter, 2003)

Energy demandSocial Development Environmental Development Economic DevelopmentStakeholder participation Fossil energy resources Technology transferImproved services Land resources Regional economyCapacity development Air quality Microeconomic efficiencyEqual distribution Water quality Employment generation

3.2. Potential for renewable energiesEven though RE only play a minor role today, the MENA region has great resources for windand solar energy. The MED-CSP study (Trieb et al., 2005) assessed the potential for varioustechnologies and found that MENA can not only satisfy all its energy demand with RE buteven generate income by the export of clean energy. The Red Sea for example belongs to themost promising regions for wind power in the world. Currently hydro power still accountsfor the largest share of RE in MENA32 while solar energy has by far the largest potential.Still, only a well balanced mix of technologies can ensure a sustainable energy supply33. In theappendix (E) there is an overview over the total economic potential for the various technologiesin the MENA region. This study focuses solely on LFC for SHIPc, whereas the DLR studiedpower generation with concentrating technologies (Trieb et al., 2005). They estimated thetotal economic potential (defined as those areas with a DNI of more than 2,000 kWh/m2/a)as 632,099 TWhel/a. Even though this number can not be transferred directly it indicates thepotential.

3.3. Overview of countries and selection for bottom up assessmentSo far MENA was described on an aggregated level. However, the countries are extremelyheterogeneous in resource endowments and economic development. While Qatar has one of thehighest GDP per capita in the world (29,460 US$), Yemen belongs to the poorest (558 US$).

32For example the Aswan dam in Egypt with a capacity of 2.1GW33In additon to Table 6 grid stability is also of major importance.

31

Some countries (e.g. Kuwait) export 5 times more energy than they consume while others (e.g.Morocco) can only satisfy 4 % of their demand by local production. Table 7 below provides anoverview of relevant energy and socio-economic indicators. Within Appendix E more detailsare given for each country. The solar resource is very high for all MENA countries and the CSPperformance indicator (see Section 2.1) is used for comparison. The same index was also used tocalculate the ”annual earnings per m2”34. The results are aggregated on a national level and cannot be used to predict a specific site due to DNI variances within the countries. Nevertheless,the ”annual earnings per m2” are an indicator combining solar resource and energy costs whichcan be used for a ranking. The resource to production ratio (R/P) gives the remaining time inyears under which resources are available under the current rate of exploitation. Within thisanalysis coal is not considered since it has a minor role in MENA and in industry especially.It is important to stress that there are more crucial variables, especially institutions for thesupport of RE. They are not included in the top-down analysis but will be mentioned later oncountry level. Various criteria exist to identify promising countries. On the one hand countrieswith high energy prices and little resources have the greatest need for RE. On the other hand,resource rich countries with high GDP per capita can more easily afford to shift their energysupply system or realize pilot projects. For the present analysis focus was on high energy(diesel) prices35, a reasonable DNI and a sufficient size of industry (population and GDP percapita). Based on these criteria the following two countries are identified.

• Morocco; (diesel = 0.83 US$ / liter, Production / TPES < 5 %)

• Tunisia; (diesel = 0.84 US$ /liter, Production / TPES < 85 %)

3.4. Industrial heat demandSince there are no detailed studies on industrial energy demand in MENA and the structure ofindustrial energy demand (relative distribution of energy forms, temperatures etc.) is expectedto be similar between regions this section is based on European and German data. It is assumedthat the results can be reasonably transferred to MENA37. According to Eurostat (see Figure13) the industry accounts for 27 % of total energy demand. This demand can further be34How much money would have to be spent on diesel to obtain the same amount of energy as can be harvested

annually per m2. Prices for heating oil would be better for industry, however, data was not available.35Diesel prices are used since there is no source on heating oil prices for industry.36The cost for diesel necessary to obtain the same amount of energy per m2 with an assumed efficiency of 40

%. Diesel prices were used instead of heavy fuel oil costs in order to have consistent data for all countriesfor the same year.

37Despite differences, for example in efficiency, industrial energy demand is determined by the technical process.

32

Table 7: Crucial indicators for country selection

Country Popu

latio

nin

million

GDP

incurrentbillion

US$

GDP

/capita

incurrentUS$

Indu

stry

as%

ofGDP

CSP

perfo

rman

ceindicator

Prod

uctio

n/TPE

Sin

%

R/P

ratio

oilinyears

R/P

ratio

gasin

years

Dieselp

ricein

US$

annu

alearnings

perm

2ine

36

Algeria 35.5 159 4,495 62 2,700 437 18 55 0.2 27Bahrain 1.2 20.6 17,606 n.a. 2,050 189 7 n.a. 0.13 13.3Egypt 81.1 219 2,699 38 2,800 123 16 35 0.2 28Jordan 6.1 27.6 4,557 33 2,700 4 n.a. n.a. 0.61 82.3Kuwait 2.6 109.5 41,463 n.a. 2,100 581 >100 >100 0.2 21Lebanon 4.2 39.2 9,262 21 2,000 4 n.a. n.a. 0.76 76Lybia 6.4 62.4 9,805 78 2,700 569 73 100 0.12 16.2Morocco 31.9 91.2 2,802 30 2,600 4 n.a. n.a. 0.83 107.9Oman 2.7 46.9 17,293 n.a. 2,200 386 19 40 0.38 41.8Qatar 1.6 98.3 61,445 n.a. 2,000 517 55 >100 0.19 19Saudi Arabia 27.5 434.7 15,834 70 2,500 358 75 >100 0.09 11.3Syria 20.5 59.1 2,891 35 2,200 119 18 49 0.53 58.3Tunisia 10.5 44.3 4,199 32 2,400 82 n.a. n.a. 0.84 100.8Turkey 72.8 735.3 10,106 28 2,000 29 n.a. n.a. 1.62 162UAE 6.9 230.3 33,183 61 2,200 309 >100 >100 0.62 68.2Yemen 23.3 26.4 1,130 n.a. 2,200 203 25 >100 0.17 18.7

divided into the various forms of energy, whereas process heat has the largest share. Therelative distribution for Germany is shown in Figure 14. The relative heat demand differsbetween industries whereas the iron and steel, as well as the chemical sector have the highestenergy demand as shown in Figure 15. Due to high temperatures of sometimes more than800◦C the iron and steel, as well as glass industry can not be covered with LFC.

33

...

Transport

.32%..

Industry

.27% ..

Services & households

.

41%

Figure 13: Energy consumption in different sectors (Eurostat, 2011)

...

Mechanical energy

.23%

..

HVAC & warm water

.

10%

..

Process heat

.64%

..Lightning & IT

. 3%

Figure 14: Industrial energy demand in Germany (BMWi, 2011), IT = information technology;HVAC = heating, ventilation and air conditioning

... ..1998

.2000

.2002

.2004

.2006

.2008

.

20

.

40

.

60

.

Year

.

Mtoe

.

. ..Iron & steel . ..Chemical . ..Textile & leather . ..Glass

. ..Paper & printing . ..Food & tobacco . ..Engineering & other metal . ..Other

Figure 15: Final energy consumption of industrial sectors in Europe (Eurostat, 2010)

34

In the chemical sector processes covers a very broad temperature range, thus, the sector cannot be classified at whole. For the next step of the analysis temperature levels will be introduced.Afterwards industry can be classified according to the temperature of their dominant heatdemand. The exact limits are somewhat arbitrary, here the levels of the Ecoheatcool study(Ecoheatcool and Euroheat and Power, 2006) (Ecoheatcool2006) will be used. Their relativeshares are shown in Figure 16.

...

> 400◦C

.43%..

< 100◦C

.30%

..

100◦C – 400◦C

.

27%

Figure 16: Temperature distribution for European industry (Ecoheatcool and Euroheat and Power,2006)

Of course, most industries have processes at different temperatures. Within this analysis thefocus is on SHIPc with LFC. As shown above they are reasonable at medium temperatures.Nevertheless, for calculating the potential of SHIPc both segments, <100◦C and 100◦C – 400◦Care added. Even in companies where all processes are below 100◦C steam is a common heatcarrier. Furthermore, in companies with several processes the temperature of a central steamsupply is determined by the highest temperature. On the other hand, if the demand of hightemperatures is great, the potential is reduced since waste heat can be recovered easily.

3.5. Solar process heat at medium temperatures in Middle East andNorth Africa

When transferring the data of industrial energy consumption from Germany and Europe toMENA there are two major mistakes. First, industry is not equally distributed (not all countrieshave heavy industries). Second, energy efficiency is much higher in Europe. Nevertheless, forthe objective of this study the results can be transferred. According to the IEA the MENAcountries (all 16 mentioned above) had an industrial energy demand of 1,263 TWh in 2009(IEA, 2011). Assuming that 64 % is process heat, of which 57 % is in the range up to 400◦Cthe total demand is around 460 TWh. Even when only a fraction of this amount can be covered

35

by LFC (due to temperature) the potential is huge. Reiners used a more sophisticated approachbased on production and employment data. He estimated the total demand for process heat(up to 250◦C) in the Mediterranean38 to be in the range of 325 to 373 TWh (Reiners, 2011).

3.6. Suitable sectors for process heat generation at medium temperaturesAs explained in Section 3 the medium temperature range (100◦C – 400◦C) is promising forSHIPc with concentrating solar technologies like LFC. Below some sectors, where a large frac-tion for their process heat demand is in the medium level, are described, namely: (i) food andbeverages, (ii) textile and (iii) plastic and chemical. Furthermore, solar cooling is another in-teresting application. Of course there is also potential in other sectors. For example paper andpulp industry with temperatures of 120 – 150◦C is often mentioned as suitable. However, it isexcluded from a more detailed analysis for two reasons. First, it is characterized by very largefacilities which often generate their own electricity and have waste heat available (EPA, 2002)(Vannoni et al., 2008). Second, even though there are some facilities within MENA, the regionas such is rather unsuitable for paper industry due to the lack of wood. Also the desalinationof seawater is very promising for concentrating solar collectors, especially in combination withpower generation. A study by the DLR (Trieb et al., 2007) assessed that the renewable waterresources in MENA are already completely in use, that the demand grows by more than 100 %until 2050. Still,this topic goes beyond the scope of this study39.

ChemicalThe chemical industry has a great energy demand and is often considered as one of the sectorswith the biggest potential for SHIP (Lauterbach et al., 2011b). Since the industry is veryheterogeneous the processes have to be considered individually. The plastic industry, despitesuitable temperature ranges, is not promising for SHIP since heat is commonly provided withelectricity to ensure an accurate temperature distribution within the work-piece40 (Müller et al.,2004). Moreover, according to a study by Eikmeier et al. (2005) more than 50 % of the heatdemand in the German chemical sector is above 500◦C (Lauterbach et al., 2011b). Thus, thereis often waste heat available from higher processes or combined heat dn power (CHP) units.Finally, in MENA the industry is strongest were it is supplied with very cheap raw materialsand energy, which also does not favour the application of SHIP. Still there are very interesting38Reiners included the following countries: Albania, Algeria, Croatia, Egypt, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece,

Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Tunisia and Turkey3950 % of the countries under examination have a higher water consumption than renewable freshwater avail-

ability, as can be seen in the country data in Appendix E.40This was confirmed in the visit of various plastic and cable producing companies in Tunisia.

36

processes. Within the Moroccan analysis for example a factory producing bitumen roofs wasassessed. Bitumen is a residue from oil processing. Due to its chemical properties it is com-monly used in the construction industry to make light, durable and waterproofed roofs. Anoverview of the production process of these roofs can be found in (CDC, 2001). The productionprocess has three inherent advantages for the application of SHIPc. First, temperatures are inthe range between 160 – 270◦C (BWA, 2011). Second, due to the necessary investment in theplant companies commonly have an installed capacity of several MW. Third, before processingthe product has to be stored in hot tanks at temperatures beyond 200◦C. These storage tankscan provide an excellent possibility for short term storage at peak times.

TextileAlso the textile industry is commonly identified as suitable for SHIP (Müller et al., 2004),(ESTIF, 2006), (Schweiger et al., 2001) and energy is one of its major cost factors (Hasanbeigi,2010). At the same time, it is also ”one of the most complicated manufacturing industries be-cause it is a fragmented and heterogeneous sector dominated by small and medium enterprises”(Hasanbeigi, 2010). According to Kalogirou (Kalogirou, 2009) drying (100◦C – 130◦C) and fix-ing (160◦C – 180◦C) have suitable temperatures. Drying is normally done in a mechanical anda thermal step. Müller (Müller et al., 2004) found that in Austria almost all companies areequipped with a central steam system (around 200◦C) to supply heat to the various processes.An overview of the total final energy use for the US textile industry is provided by Hasan-beigi (Hasanbeigi, 2010), which confirms that the textile industry is very suitable for SHIPc

(see Figure 17). Within the POSHIP study (Schweiger et al., 2001) various textile companieswere assessed for the application of compound parabolic concentrating (CPC) collectors, yetno studies are available for higher concentrating technologies.

...

Steam

.28%

..

Motor driven systems

.28%

..

Fired Heaters

.

20%

..

Facilities

.

18%

..

Process cooling

.4%

..Others

. 2%

Figure 17: Energy demand in US textile industry (Hasanbeigi, 2010)

37

Food and beveragesMost studies on SHIP identified food and beverage industries as very promising for SHIP(Schweiger et al., 2001), (Vannoni et al., 2008), (Müller et al., 2004), (Lauterbach et al., 2011b),(ESTIF, 2006). UNIDO even estimates that ” the food and tobacco sector has almost half ofthe potential,” (UNIDO, 2011). Moreover, food industry is present in all countries since it iscrucial for food sovereignty41. Reducing the impact of volatile energy costs on food productionalso contributes to stable food prices in the long run. The processes with high thermal energydemand are (i) cooking, (ii) drying and (iii) sterilization (Kalogirou, 2001). Depending on theproduct the exact temperature levels differ. A challenge for SHIP in food industries is that theannual load curve depends on harvest times and some processes can rest completely for severalweeks to months (e.g. sugar beet processing). Still, large companies are sufficiently diverseand produce often 365 days a year. Within Europe, the beer industry is commonly mentionedas especially suitable, and first projects have been realized already (Schneider, 2010). It is notmentioned in this study since it can well be covered with low temperature collectors and sincebeer industry is not strong in MENA.Also the dairy industry is very interesting due to daily production and high energy demand.Details on the processes in the food and beverage sector can be found in a study by theEuropean Commission (2006) (European Commission, 2006) and are summarized in Table 8.Furthermore, there is also a constant demand for cooling which can ease small fluctuations aswill be discussed below. One of the first SHIPc projects was installed in the dairy sector inPortugal in 1985 (Schweiger et al., 2001).

Table 8: Thermal processes in the dairy sector (European Commission, 2006)

Process Temperatures DescriptionPasteurization 74◦C This process deactivates most micro-organisms and

enzymes with minimized impact on the milk itself.Drying 120◦C – 180◦C Evaporators and spray driers are applied in

multi-stage process.Ultra-high treatment 130◦C – 150◦C By applying very high temperatures for a short time

the shelf life is extended for up to 1 year (uncooled)Sterilization 130◦C – 150◦C In addition to ultra-high treatment sterilized milk is

heated another time to 130◦C for 20 – 40 minutesafter filling and sealing. This can extend shelf lifeup to three years.

41Food sovereignty does not only consider calories per capita but also domestic production.

38

Solar coolingSolar cooling is not mentioned in most studies on SHIP, even though industry often has substan-tial cooling demands (especially the food sector). In MENA the demand for cooling increasesstrongly due to population growth, raising living standards and more developed industries.Since cooling is very energy intensive it is responsible for high CO2eq emissions. Moreover elec-tric HVAC systems also cause grid challenges due to high peak loads. Solar cooling addressesboth challenges simultaneously. While today it is still a niche product the potential is great,especially in the MENA region (Weiss and Mauthner, 2011). Two additional advantages arethat its output fits well to the demand curve (peak load at noon in summer) and that itsproduct can easily be stored (compared to electricity and steam for example). An overview ofthe technical solutions is provided in Table 9.

Table 9: Overview of solar cooling technologies; source: Solair-project41

Method Closed cycle Open cycle

Cycle Closed refrigerant cycle Open refrigerant cycle

Phase of sorbent Solid Liquid Sorbent Liquid

Refrigerant pairs H2O – SiO2 H2O – LiBr H2O – SiO2 H2O – CaCl2Ammonia – H2O H2O – LiCl H2O – LiCl

Capacity 50 kW – 430 kW 15 kW – 5 MW 20 kW – 350 kW not available

COP 0.5 – 0.7 0.6 – 0.75 (single–effect) 0.5 – 1 > 1

Driving temp 60◦C – 90◦C 80◦C – 110◦C (single–effect) 45◦C – 95◦C 45◦C – 70◦C

Closed-cycle absorption systems are most common (more than 60 % market share). Theycan be further differentiated between single stage and multi-effect systems. The later needhigher input temperatures of up to 180◦C, which fits well to LFC, and reuse the rejected heatof the first stage. Therefore multi stage systems have also higher coefficient of performance(COP), which makes them especially suitable for larger systems. The operating temperature ofa chiller depends on the refrigerant. For thermal driven cooling refrigeration–pairs have to befound with suitable properties (e.g. evaporation temperature). Currently the application rangeis still small and commercial products can only cool to around 7◦C. Still there are various inter-esting applications. Lokurlu examined the possibility of using multi-effect absorption machinesin combination with PTC for hotels in Turkey and found them capable of high efficient solarchilling (Lokurlu et al., 2005). Yet, they did not compare costs with alternative technologies.Due to investment costs the application of solar thermal powered cooling machines is only41see: http://www.solair-project.eu/114.0.html (last accessed 01.02.2012)

39

reasonable when there is constant cooling demand over the most time of the year or anotherenergy demand (e.g. laundry). The greatest potential for large solar cooling is in large publicbuildings, supermarkets & malls and in the agriculture and food industry. As mentioned abovethe demand for deep freezing can not be covered by solar cooling yet, but for processing orstorage a substantial demand also above 7◦C exists. To study load profiles of food companieswith demand for both, steam and cooling, is an important step towards the breakthrough ofSHIPc. In the scope of the MEDISCO projects pilot plants were installed. In Morocco PTCcollectors are used for the cooling of milk (Ayadi, 2008), in Tunisia LFC for the cooling of wine.Of course the investments costs increase for ab(d)sorption systems due to the chiller, additionalpumps and controls as well as storage. On the other hand, solar cooling systems compete withelectricity, not only heat.

Existing installations with concentrating collectors for process heatAs mentioned above solar energy plays only a minor role in covering thermal needs in indus-try, SHIPc is even more scarce. A large share of the concentrating collectors which were notinstalled for CSP are used for solar cooling. Below some SHIPc installations are listed:

• In 1985 PTC were installed at a dairy factory in Portugal. However, due to a lack ofmaintenance, the installation stopped operation (Schweiger et al., 2001).

• At Nasr Pharmaceuticals 1,900 m2 of PTC were installed in 2003. The collectors wereproduced locally. To the authors knowledge the plant never went operational due totechnical problems42.

• Frito-Lay´s snack factory installed 5,056 m2 of PTC in Modesto, California (Abengoa,2008).

• At a textile factory in Tamil Nadu, India, Soltigua installed collectors with 652 kW peak43.

• At ALANOD GmbH in Enneptal, Germany, Solitem installed 108 m2 of PTC for DSG(Dunst, 2011).

3.7. Challenges for solar heat in industrial processesIn industry RE are faced with several challenges which make application difficult. Amongothers, UNIDO (UNIDO, 2011) identified the following: (i) risks associated with technology

42http://www.solarpaces.org/Tasks/Task1/el_nasr.htm (last accessed 25.01.2012)43http://www.soltigua.com/projects/ (last accessed 12.01.2012)

40

transitions and the adoption of early stage technologies, (ii) the lock-in of inefficient, pollutingtechnologies with long lifetimes, (iii) restricted access to financial support to cover additionalcosts. Moreover, the studies on SHIP identified several SHIP specific challenges. Those whichare relevant for SHIPc in the MENA region are listed below.

• Missing awareness (ESTIF, 2006), (UNIDO, 2011), (Steege, 2008), (Lauterbach et al.,2011b)

• Confidence only in long-term proven technologies (ESTIF, 2006)

• System investment cost (ESTIF, 2006), (UNIDO, 2011), (Steege, 2008)

• Lack of know how and planning tools (ESTIF, 2006), (UNIDO, 2011), (Steege, 2008)(Lauterbach et al., 2011b)

• Long payback times (ESTIF, 2006), (Steege, 2008)

• Low prices of fossil fuels (UNIDO, 2011), (Weiss and Biermayr, 2009)

• Availability of space (Weiss and Biermayr, 2009)

• Potential within companies to improve efficiency first (Lauterbach et al., 2011b)

41

4. Bottom up assessment

4.1. Morocco“Morocco [... ] must also pursue its efforts aiming at

making alternative and renewable sources of energy,the keystone of [its] national policy of energy.”

King Mohamed VI of Morocco44

4.1.1. Introduction

The Kingdom of Morocco is the most western country of MENA with an area of 710,000km2

(including West Sahara), a map is shown in Figure 18. In 1956 it became independent fromFrance and Spain. Its capital is Rabat, yet the economic centre is Casablanca. Morocco hasa population of almost 32 million people, the GDP per capita in 2010 was 2,802 US$. Witha Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.567 it ranks 114th. There is an ongoing conflictabout the status of the Western Sahara, an area of around 266,000km2, and Morocco´s ruleis internationally not recognized. The West Sahara is hardly populated but a major source ofincome due to its phosphate reserves and the strong fishing industry. The north of Morocco hasMediterranean climate and good rainfall, especially at the coastal zones. Towards the southand the east the climate becomes hotter and there is hardly any precipitation.

Figure 18: Map of Morocco; source: Lonely Planet

44UNDP 2011 - speech on 07.03.2008 (Throne day), King Mohamed VI of Morocco, said:

42

Morocco is a parliamentary, constitutional monarchy and there were constitutional reforms in2011 to give more power to the parliament. However, whether the pace of reform is appropriateis disputed within Morocco and there are demands for more social, economical and politicalreforms. People repeatedly complain about the high corruption - on the index of TransparencyInternational Morocco ranks 80/183 (TI, 2011) (this can also be an obstacle for RE), on theGlobal Competitiveness Index it ranks 73/142 (WEF, 2011). The currency within Morocco isthe Moroccan Dirham 1 e ≈ 11Dh.

4.1.2. The potential and rationale for renewable energies

Morocco is very scarce in fossil fuels and imports more than 94 % of its national energy demandaccording to the Regional Centre for Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency (RCREEE,2010a), more than any other MENA country. There are several energy subsidies, especiallyfor cooking gas, to ease the live of the poor, but also other petroleum products are subsidized.This causes inefficient usage and is a major burden for the governmental budget. In 2008, thepetroleum subsidies reached an amount of 24.7 billion Dh (see Figure 19).

.....

2004

.

2005

.

2006

.

2007

.

2008

.

2009

.0

.

10

.

20

.3.4.

7.4

.

7.7

.

10.7

.

24.7

.

7.35

.

Billion

MoroccanDirh

am

Figure 19: Moroccan petroleum subsidies (MEMEE, 2010)

At the same time, Morocco has great potential for RE. At the Atlantic Coast wind speedsoften exceed 8 m/s and DNI reaches up to 2,600 kWh/m2/a (see Figure 20). According to theDLR its economic potential for wind energy is 25 TWhel/year and 20,146 TWhel/year for CSP(Trieb et al., 2005). In 2009, wind turbines with a total capacity of 253 MW, CSP with 20 MWand 272,000 m2 SWH were installed. Due to its scarcity in fossil fuels Morocco has ambitioustargets in RE. In 2020 it plans to generate up to 40 % of its electricity by RE (RCREEE, 2010a).Therefore it intends to build 2,000 MW capacity for each, CSP and wind energy. Furthermore,it undertook institutional steps to support RE, as will be outlined in the next section. The

43

Figure 20: Direct normal irradiation in Morocco (Trieb et al., 2005)

theoretical potential for SHIPc in Morocco can be estimated to be around 11.6 TWh45. If therewill be a substantial export of green electricity from MENA to Europe Morocco will be thecountry to profit first due to its vicinity to Spain (<30 km).

4.1.3. Institutional framework for renewable energies

Morocco currently undergoes major institutional changes in order to realize its plans in regardsto RE. The parliament adopted three laws related to RE in 2010.

• Law 13.09 (2010) – Article 4 and 6 state that plants with a capacity greater than 8 MWth

are subjected to regulations regarding installation and modification.

• Law 16.09 (2010) – Regulates the foundation and objectives of the ”Agency for the de-velopment of renewable energies and energy efficiency” (ADEREE)

• Law 57.09 (2010) – Regulates the foundation and objectives of the ”Moroccan Agency forSolar Energy” (MASEN)

Morocco´s RE plan is dominated by the strategy to develop large scale wind and solar projects.The total installed capacity in 2020 shall reach 2,000 MW of both, wind and solar, operatedmainly under power purchasing agreements. Furthermore, it is the objective to develop self-production. Thus, technologies with a higher share of local added value gain an advantage.The major institutions in Morocco with respect to RE are briefly described below.

45Industrial energy demand of 2,774 Mtoe (IEA), of which 64 % is process heat and a share of 57 % in therange of 100◦C – 400◦C

44

The Ministry of Energy, Mining, Water and the Environment (MEMEE) is the prin-cipal Moroccan governmental body for RE. It developed the New National Energy Strategy46

(Ministère de l’Energie, des Mines, de l’Eau et de l’Environnement (Morocco) (MEMEE), 2010)and is major stakeholder of all other institutions mentioned below.

The National Office for Electricity (ONE) is the state owned electricity supplier. Theelectricity market was liberalized in 1999 and today ONE provides only around 40 % of thetotal demand (RCREEE, 2010a). ONE will be the single buyer of the electricity produced fromthe MASEN plants. Details on the electricity tariffs can be found in Appendix A.

The Society for Investments in Energy (SIE) was created in 2010. Its objective is tomanage the funds available to realize the national energy strategy. Its approach is to facilitateinvestments in Morocco. To realize its objectives the SIE will launch two funds which will bemanaged by experienced international financial institutions. The first fund is for RE and willinvest in CSP plants and large wind energy projects. The tender for the management wasissued already and the fund will start operation at the end of the 2011. The second fund willaddress energy efficiency and will start in the beginning of 2012. For SHIP the second fundwill be responsible. The funds will not provide direct subsidies but invest in projects.

The Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy was founded in 2010 to develop 2,000 MW ofsolar energy until 2020. Its stakeholders are the MEMEE, the ”Hassan II Fund For Economic& Social Development”, the SIE and ONE47. It is responsible, inter alia, for the coordinationof the large RE projects, the organisation of investment and finance, the contribution to R&Das well as the promotion and supervision of the programme. MASEN concentrates solely onlarge scale electricity generating projects and does not consider SHIP.

The National Agency for the Development of Renewable Energies and Energy Ef-ficiency was formed out of the CDER (Centre for Development of Renewable Energies) bythe law 16.09. Its objective is to support the government in the development of RE. Thereforeit is responsible for the development of national plans, the design and implementation of REprograms or the mapping of RE potentials.

46Its seven pillars are: privatization of the downstream petrol sector, reformation of fossil fuel subsidies, de-velopment of renewable energies, privatization of the electricity distribution system, electricity tariffs, ruralelectrification, first steps towards regional integration.

47http://www.mem.gov.ma/Ministre/Projetsolaire.htm (last accessed 11.01.2012)

45

The Institute for Research on Solar and New Energies (IRESEN) was founded in 2011.Among others, the founding institutions were MEMEE, ADEREE, MASEN, SIE as well asindustrial partners. Its objective is, inter alia, the coordination of research themes, advice,support and coordination of R&D projects especially in relation to industry whereas the Na-tional Energy Plan provides the framework. IRESEN shall gradually build up the capacity inMorocco to profit from the complete value chain of RE. Therefore it already set up variouspartnerships with leading European research institutions. IRESEN is equipped with a fund tofinance projects, moreover the involved industries can do part of their research via IRESEN.

The Moroccan Association for Solar Industry (AMISOLE) was founded in 198748. Cur-rently it is comprised of more than 30 small companies, mainly active in the field of photovoltaicand domestic solar hot water systems (SWH). In most companies RE is only a minor business.

In respect to SWH the MEMEE launched the PROMASOL programme (PROgramme na-tional de développement du MArché de chauffe-eau SOLaire) in 2002 jointly with the UNDP(United Nations Development Programme) and others. Its objective is to spread the applica-tion of SWH by raising awareness and improve quality and certification. During the first phasethe installed area of SWH rose from 35,000 m2 in 1998 to 272,000 m2 in 2008 (Epp, 2011b).The project had a fund of 43,000,000 $ available (UNDP, 2011). Recently PROMASOL II waslaunched which addresses hotels. For larger system there was also a financial scheme introducedto guarantee for credits49. However, it only covers credits up to 0.25 million e and is thus toosmall for SHIPc installations.To tackle the great potential for energy efficiency the German Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau(KFW) launched the Fonds de Dépollution industrielle (FODEP). It subsidies investments forreduction of industrial pollution with up to 40 %50. Even though the structure of the pro-gramme would be well suited RE projects are not eligible.Summing up, Morocco has various institutions to support RE. Many of them are only recentlyestablished and not yet fully operational. For SHIP there is no institution to provide support,even though this can be cost effective. Compared to domestic SWH industrial installationshave higher running times and thus can provide more energy per investment. Whether thestrategy of the SIE to induce investments will be successful remains open.

48http://www.amisole.com/ (last acceased 12.01.2012)49http://uir.fh-bingen.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Marokko/Energie/datenblaetter/foerderungen/db_ma_

en_Fonds_FOGEER_2011_02_18.pdf (last accessed 12.10.2011)50http://www.environnement.gov.ma/fodep/presentation.asp (last accessed 05.10.2011)

46

4.1.4. Industry in Morocco

In 2008 Morocco had a GDP of around 55 billion (bn) US$ (the sector contributions can be foundin Table 10), and a trade deficit of around 19 billion US$ (United Nations Comtrade, 2011a).Its major imports are petroleum products (17 %) whereas its major exports are phosphates51

and cables. Furthermore, also the textile and the food sector contribute strongly to exports.

Table 10: Economic data for Morocco52

Indicator agriculture industry services% of total employment (2010) 39 22.4 38.6% of GDP (2010) 14 28.5 57.5

In regard to energy and emissions industry accounts for 30 % of Moroccan CO2 emissions,mainly from the production of cement, phosphates and sugar. Since their total energy demandis expected to rise by more than 300 % until 2030, energy efficiency measures in industryare focussed on these three sectors(World Bank, 2011a). The total energy saving potential isestimated to be 48 % (RCREEE, 2010a). In 2008 the Moroccan industry consumed around2,774 Mtoe of which 69 % were oil and 26 % electricity53. As can be seen from Table 10agriculture employs the largest share of labour but contributes little to GDP. This is commonlydefined as a constrained for further economic development. The Plan Maroc Vert54 aims toincrease local added value of agricultural products. Within the Moroccan industry the OmniumNorth–Africain (ONA) holding has an important role. It is the largest private holding in Africaclosely aligned to the Royal family. ONA is active in all major sectors, especially in mining,agriculture, financial services, telecommunication, hotels, media and also starts in RE via itssubsidiary the Nareva Holding55. The sectors which were identified in Section 3.6 are brieflycharacterized below and in Table 11. The food and beverage sector is further subdivided.Within Morocco a large share of food is traded locally, often in informal ways. At the sametime industrially processed food becomes stronger (AHK, 2010). The export of food, 26 %citrus fruits, 17% fresh fish, (AHK, 2010) is a major source of income but is constrained by lowquality. Thus, Morocco invests heavily to improve its food industry and increase exports. Dueto the climate agricultural production and food industry is mainly located in the north.

51Together with the West Sahara territories Morocco has around 70 % of world phosphate resources.52Employment date from the Moroccan Statistical Office (Haut-Commissariat au Plan du Maroc) (HCP, 2011);

GDP data from the Moroccan Ministry of Economy and Finance53data from EIA, see Appendix E54http://www.ada.gov.ma/Plan_Maroc_Vert/plan-maroc-vert.php (last accessed 03.11.2011)55Nareva developed for example the Haouma Wind Farm Project with a total capacity of 50 MW.

47

Table 11: Overview of selected Moroccan industrial sectors56

sector companies employees turnover % of exports listed atin Dh stock exchange

food (total) 1,180 (2) 75,627 (1) 84,568,271 (1) – 9dairy 88 (2) – – – 1fish 217 (2) – – 6 1beverages 31 (2) – – – 3fruits & vegetables 144 (2) – – – 1textile & leather 1,576 (2) 204,632 (1) 28,370,400 (1) 10 0

Fish industryMorocco has the largest fish market in Africa and accordingly the fish industry is very strong.Major fishing hubs are Agadir, Safi, Tan-Tan and Laayoune (West Sahara). Similar to agricul-ture also the fish sector shall be upgraded. Until 2020 the government wants to increase fishexports by 250 % and increase jobs by more than 10 %57. While all kind of fish is processed inMorocco the production of fish meal is especially relevant for SHIPc. Production takes place insix steps (i) delivery, (ii) cooking, (iii) pressing and separation of oil, (iv) drying, (v) cuttingand (vi) filling. For the cooking and drying steam with around 200◦C is used. Due to the bigquantities the energy demand is very large.

Textile industryThe textile sector in Morocco grew strongly between the early 1980s and early 1990s, mainlydue to its proximity to Europe. It contributes little to the GDP but absorbs a large share oflow skilled labour (see Table 11). However, after the competition from Asia became stronger,especially after the end of the Multifibre Arrangement58, Moroccan production decreased. Com-pared to 2004 the textile exports from Morocco to the EU dropped by 7.4 % (World Bank, 2006).

Sugar industryThe Moroccan sugar sector is dominated by the Cosumar group to which the five major compa-nies (Sunabel, Suta, Cosumar, Sucrafor and Surac) belong. It processes sugar beets and canesand has an annual production of over 1.2 million tons59. More than 80,000 farmers rely on56Data from Ministry of industry and commerce (1) (MICNT, 2010), Emergence website (http://www.

emergence.gov.ma (2)) and UN Statistics (3) (United Nations Comtrade, 2011a).57http://www.invest.gov.ma/?Id=66&lang=en&RefCat=6&Ref=149 (last accessed 15.12.2011)58The Multifibre Arrangement restricted the amount of textiles which could be exported from developing to

developed countries between 1974 and 2004.59http://www.ada.gov.ma/en/plans\_regionaux/filiere-sucriere.php (last accessed 29.09.2011)

48

the sector and there is a strong involvement by the government which also sets the prices andimport tariffs. On an international level the Moroccan sugar industry lacks behind in technicalknow how and would suffer with increased liberalization. In 2008 a CDM project at a Suracplant was realized where a bagasse boiler was installed60.

Dairy industryDue to raising living standards and better processing facilities the Moroccan consumption ofdairy products grows. The dairy sector has an output of 1.5 million tons of raw milk per year,whereas milk production shall double until 2020 (FAO, 2011a). The dominant player is CentralLatiere a fully privatized company belonging to ONA and Danone61.

Solar coolingApart from cooling for office buildings and malls also the food industry offers a large coolingpotential. A study conducted in 2008 (EEAA, 2008) estimated the total cooling capacity inthe agriculture and food sector in Morocco to be 1,700,000 m2 or 1,301 MW. The estimationsare rough but a lack of refrigeration capacity is commonly identified as a major constraint forthe Moroccan food sector. Thus, the government supports the expansion of capacity by taxreduction and direct subsidies (EEAA, 2008). Fruits and vegetables account for the largestshare of capacity with 66 %, dairy products and fish for 17 % and 14 % respectively. While theefficiency of current cooling equipment is often bad solar cooling can be a good choice for newdevelopments. In the scope of the MEDISCO project a 13 kW absorption machine was installedat a dairy farm in 2008 driven by roof mounted PTC (Ayadi, 2008). While fish industry mainlyneeds deep freezing solar cooling can be suitable for citrus fruits.

4.1.5. Qualitative assessment of solar process heat in Morocco

This section summarizes the qualitative findings of the analysis of SHIPc in Morocco. Themain results are depicted in Table 12. The qualitative results, especially the solar share, areestimations. The data on the process temperature are based on data from companies andliterature. The high temperature in ”Food 5” is due to the use of a CHP unit, the processesare at lower temperatures (130◦C).

60http://cdm.unfccc.int/Projects/DB/TUEV-SUED1221131848.46 (last accessed 01.02.2012)61Other companies are Copag, Safilait, Superlait, Colainord

49

Table 12: Results from company visits in Morocco62

company prod

uct/process

processtempe

rature

in◦ C

roof

solarshare

supp

lytempe

rature

in◦ C

heat

carrier

days

ofprod

uctio

n

hoursof

prod

uctio

n

fuel

Food 1 Dairy 170 C L 210 ST 365 24 oilFood 2 Fish meal 120 S M 140 ST 250 12 oilFood 3 Juice 130 S L 185 ST 365 24 oilFood 4 Fish meal 120 S M 180 ST 230 12 oilFood 5 Sugar & CHP 385 C L 390 ST 365 24 oilFood 6 Fish meal 120 S L 180 ST 230 12 oilFood 7 Fish meal 120 S L 180 ST 230 12 oilTextile 1 Dying 130 C H 130 ST 365 16 oilTextile 2 Dying 130 C M 175 ST 365 16 oilPlastic 1 Bitumen 235 S L 250 O 365 16 oil

Institutional

• There is no institution which directly supports SHIP (PROMASOL supports SWH ingeneral, but not financially), neither is there support for pilot projects.

• Solar thermal projects (not CSP) are not mentioned in the National Energy Strategy(MEMEE, 2010).

• Due to the structure of the SIE, large collective systems operated by an energy providerare interesting where the SIE can invest directly.

Industrial

• Energy efficiency is rather low in Moroccan industry (RCREEE, 2010a).62Roof: C = Concrete, S = Sheets (metal); Solar share: L = low (<15 %), M = medium (15-50 %), H = High

(>50 %)

50

• The major findings from previous studies on SHIP were confirmed (i) steam is the domi-nant heat carrier, (ii) roofs are too small for high solar share (iii) and the roof constructionis often a further impedement. Moreover, (iv) only few companies mention environmentalvalues and (v) there is little awareness about the possibility of SHIP.

• There are great differences of DNI within Morocco (1800 kwh/m2/a – 2600 kwh/m2/a)(Trieb et al., 2005). Also there is major uncertainty, Meteornom currently has only onestation with irradiation measurement63.

• In energy intensive industries, which use CHP units, LFC can be used for the regenerationof steam. However, since installations are rather complex integration will be difficult.

• Industrial zones for central steam supply are an interesting business model. They arecommonly less space constrained compared to industrial centres in urban areas. Moreover,in new constructions energy efficiency is expected to be higher and proper roofs can beconstructed from the very beginning.

• As can be seen from Table 11 in the textile industry the average company is much smallercompared to the food industry. Thus, only few companies will be capable of large invest-ments as needed for SHIPc.

• In textile industry a comparatively higher share of the total energy demand can be coveredwith the available roof area64.

• Many fish companies complained that they can only produce around 300 days per yeardue to insufficient supply. This makes economics for SHIPc much more difficult.

• Fish industry is often in absolute vicinity of the coast (less than 300 m) where DNI canbe reduced due to air humidity.

Thus, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) Energy prices are too low, but the differentialcosts are small. (2) The characteristics of LFC (space efficiency and direct steam generation)are important for SHIPc. (3) The low energy efficiency (EE) is an obstacle for the applicationof SHIP. (4) Fish industry is less promising due to insufficient supply and vicinity to coast(water vapour). (5) Textile industry can achieve higher solar fraction but most companies aretoo small for large investments.63Assessed from the station map on the Meteonorm website on 02.11.2011;

http://meteonorm.com/support/toolbox/stations/64This tendency was found in all companies, however, a quantitative approach is not reasonable since it depends

on the exact process, the utilization and the way of construction.

51

4.2. Tunisia”The state will undertake additional efforts in the next

decade to use the advantage of renewable energies...”Former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali65

4.2.1. Introduction

The Republic of Tunisia is located in the centre of North Africa. It has an area of 162,155 km2

(see Figure 21) and a population of 10.5 million people. After more than 70 years of French ruleTunisia became independent in 1956, 18 days after Morocco. Apart from the strong connectionto France due to colonialism, Tunisia also has close ties to Italy due to its vicinity (130 km).The capital is Tunis, located in the north–west, where also most economic activity takes place.Other economic centres are Sousse and Sfax. Tunisia has reserves in oil and gas as well asphosphates – all located in the South. Moreover, Tunisia profits from the transfer of Algeriangas to Europe. The GDP per capita in 2010 was 4,199 US$ and the HDI 0,69. In the north,especially north–east, there is good rainfall but climate becomes very dry in the south.

Figure 21: Map of Tunisia; source: Lonely Planet

On 14th January 2011 former President Zine el-Abdine Ben Ali fled the country after ongoingdemonstrations. He was in power since 1987. In October 2011 the first free elections took placewhere Tunisians voted a constitutional assembly. Another election is scheduled for 2013. At the

65Quoted in the ”Plan Solaire Tunisien” - speech on 07.11.2007

52

time of writing the new government was not yet in place. Thus, it remains to be seen whetherthe new leaders continue the old regimes political agenda, also in respect to RE. Due to therevolution, tourism, the major source of foreign currency, declined and also several companieswith foreign management closed. Thus, unemployment and poverty rose and it will be themajor challenge for the government to ease the live of the poor. For RE this is important asmajor reductions of energy subsidies are not expected in the short term and companies mightbe reluctant to invest. On the Transparency International Index Tunisia ranks 73/183 (TI,2011) and on the Global Competitiveness Index 40/142 (WEF, 2011). The currency in Tunisiais the Tunisian Dinar (TD), 1 e ≈ 1.9TD.

4.2.2. The potential and rationale for renewable energies

Tunisia has both oil and gas resources, though less than other countries in MENA. Currentlyit can not fully satisfy its energy demand (Production / TPES = 82 %) and has to importfossil fuels. However, this is rather to a constraint in extraction capacities and Tunisia activelyexpands its capacities (AHK, 2011). Due to its gas reserves Tunisia also subsidies electricityproduction by ≈ 20 % (AHK, 2011). Between 2003 and 2007 the Tunisian energy subsidiesrose from 111 million e to 889 million e (RCREEE, 2010b) and a rise of the oil price of 1 US$costs Tunisia ≈ 21.7 million e (AHK, 2011). Even though efforts are undertaken to reduce thesubsidies it is unclear when it will happen. Tunisia has good potential for RE. For wind energyit has a cost line of 1,400 km, for solar energy DNI reaches up to 2,600 kWh/m2/a as shown inFigure 22.

Figure 22: Direct normal irradiation in Tunisia (Trieb et al., 2005)

53

Its economic potential for wind energy is 8 TWhel/year and 9244 TWhel/year for CSP (Triebet al., 2005). Tunisia started early to support RE, especially SWH and has the best developedmarket for SWH in MENA today. In other technologies like wind or CSP it lacks behind itsneighbours but also has ambitious plans. Similar to Morocco Tunisia profits from its vicinity toEurope (distance to Italy <130km). For SHIPc, the Tunisian potential is roughly 7.6 TWh66.If there will be an export of electricity from MENA to Europe Tunisia will play a central role.In 2009, there was no CSP plant but wind turbines with a total capacity of 20 MW and anarea of 400,000 m2 SWH were installed.

4.2.3. Institutional framework for renewable energies

This section briefly describes the major institutions and legislations for RE in Tunisia67. Theformer government issued the Plan Solaire Tunisian (PST) in 2010 to reinforce the transi-tion towards a higher share of RE. It is comprised of 40 projects which cover solar thermal,photovoltaic but also wind and biomass projects. The project period is 2010 – 2016 and eachof the projects is already aligned with a budget estimation68.

• Law 2004-72 states the three major objectives of the energy policy (i) energy saving, (ii)RE, (iii) energy substitution and defines tasks and competences of the ”Agence Nationalepour la Maitrise de l’Energie” (ANME). Article 14 mentions 4 priority areas, one is theusage of solar thermal energy.

• Law 2009-7 allows companies to produce their own electricity in CHP units units and tosell the rest (up to 30 %) to the ”Société Tunisienne de l’Electricité et du Gaz” (STEG).

• N° 2009-362 Sets the subsidies and modalities for investments in RE / EE, energy auditsand feasibility studies.

The Tunisian Ministry of Industry and Technology (MIT) (before 2010: Ministry of In-dustry, Energy and Small and Medium Enterprises) is the major political body in the Tunisianenergy market. It is principal stakeholders of the other relevant institutions mentioned belowand developed the Tunisian Solar Plan. At the same time it also is responsible for the activitiesin the petroleum sector. This eases integration, especially in the electricity sector but can alsoweaken the support for RE.

66Industrial energy demand of 1.801 Mtoe (IEA), of which 64 % is process heat and a share of 57 % in therange of 100◦C – 400◦C

67For a complete list of legislation see: http://www.anme.nat.tn/index.asp?pId=53 (last accessed 05.01.2012)68For all projects see: http://www.riaed.net/IMG/article_PDF/article_2475.pdf (last accessed 01.02.2012)

54

The Agence Nationale pour la Maitrise de l’Energie is the major agency for RE inTunisia. It is under supervision of the MIT and its major responsibilities are (i) to proposefinancial incentive schemes, (ii) to develop and monitor demonstration projects, (iii) capacitybuilding, (iv) to contribute to scientific research and (v) to manage the Fonds National deMaîtrise de l’Energie (FNME).

The Fonds National de Maîtrise de l’Energie subsidies investments in RE and EE aswell as feasibility studies. It is financed through a duty on the registration of cars and animport tax on air conditioning units. The financial support rates can be found in Table 13below.

The Société Tunisienne de l’Electricité et du Gaz is the state owned gas and electricitysupplier. Even though in 1996 the electricity generation was liberalized (AHK, 2011) the STEGstill owns around 85 % of the installed capacity. The Tunisian electricity prices are subsidizedindirectly since the STEG can buy gas below world market prices. The electricity tariffs canbe found in Appendix A.

The Société Tunisienne de l’Electricité et du Gaz Energies Renouvelables (STEGER) was founded in 2009 to support large projects, mainly in solar and wind energy. So farno projects are realized but STEG ER studies the potential of RE in Tunisia jointly with theDesertec Industrial Initiative (DII). Similar to the MIT fossil energy and RE are handled inthe same institution which can impede the development of RE.

The PROgramme SOLair (PROSOL) was jointly developed by Tunisia and the UNEP.Its objective was to support the market for solar thermal collectors and its innovative approachgained international approval. PROSOL is a financial support scheme comprised of a subsidy(up to 57 e per m2) and a soft loan for small SWH. The subsidy is directly paid to the sup-plier and the credit is paid back via the electricity bill of the STEG. After the introduction ofPROSOL the annual installed capacity more than doubled (Menichetti, 2007). Currently, inthe third phase, the project shall be extended to apply also to the tertiary sector.Furthermore, the Agence Francaise de Développement (AFD) provided a credit line of 40 mil-lion e to give soft loans for projects in RE and EE. Credits are available from three localbanks69 and have an interest rate of ≈ 4%. Moreover, there are also tax and customs reductionfor RE products.

69BIAT (http://www.biat.com.tn), BT (http://www.bt.com.tn), UBCI (http://www.ubcinet.net/fr/)

55

Table 13: Support rates for renewable energies in Tunisia

Product rate in % ceiling in TD ceiling in eEnergy audits and preliminary consultancy 70 30,000 15,970Demonstration projects 50 100,000 53,220Inmaterial project costs 70 70,000 37.250RE / EE (consumption < 4,000 toe/a) 20 100,000 53.220RE / EE (consumption 4,000 -7,000 toe/a) 20 200,000 106,440RE / EE (consumption > 4,000 toe/a) 20 250,000 133,050Industrial Solar Water Heaters 30 150 (per m2) 80 (per m2)

4.2.4. Industry in Tunisia

In 2008 the Tunisian industry consumed 1.801 Mtoe of which 46 % were gas, 28 % electricityand 26 % oil70. Major exports are petroleum products 16 % and clothing 13 % whereas majorimports petroleum products 12 % and motor cars 3 % (United Nations Comtrade, 2011b). Thesector contributions in respect to GDP and employment are shown in Table 14, further dataon the selected sectors is summarized in Table 15.

Table 14: Economic data for Tunisia70

Indicator agriculture industry services% of total employment (2010) 17.7 33 49.3% of GDP (2010) 8.9 31.3 59.8

Textile industryThe textile industry is one of the major pillars of the Tunisian economy. More than 80 % ofthe textile companies work solely for export, providing jobs and foreign currency, and 67 % ofthe export go to Italy, France and Germany (FIPA, 2008). The export to the EU between 2000and 2009 grew from 1.8 to 2.6 billion e71.

Food industryThere is also a large food industry in Tunisia, however, of less importance than textile. Espe-cially in the northern regions there is sufficient water for cultivation. The major export productfrom the food sector is olive oil, accounting for 43 % (Foreign Investment Promotion Agency

70data from EIA, see Appendix E70Tunisian institute for statistics http://www.ins.nat.tn/indexen.php (last accessed 29.01.2012)71see http://www.thinktunisia.tn/images/telechargement/ITHENG.pdf (last accessed 02.02.2012)

56

(FIPA), 2008). The fish industry is small compared to Morocco since it has no access to theAtlantic. There is a strong industry for canned food, however, since processing varies due toharvesting times it is less suitable for SHIP. There is also a substantial dairy industry with anannual production of 1 billion litres72.

Table 15: Overview of selected Tunisian industrial sectors73

sector companies employees turnover % of exports listed atin million TD stock exchange

food (total) 1,027 (1) 68,114 (1) 9,936 7.5 (1) 3dairy 36 – – – 1fish 80 – –beverages 61 – – – 1fruits & vegetables 68 – – –textile & leather 2,575 (1) 228,155 (1) 6,755 (1) 25.3 (1)

Solar coolingSimilar to Morocco the potential for solar cooling is strongest in the food sector. Currently,the situation is characterized by insufficient storehouses and low quality. The low prices of gasmake solar cooling less competitive since absorption machines can also be operated with gas.Fish farms on land are and interesting application for solar cooling. They have high energydemands and need cooling in summer and heating in winter. Furthermore, the temperaturespectrum is small and thus, chillers can operate at high COP.

Automotive suppliersWithin Tunisia there is a strong industry supplying the automotive industries. Products forexample are cables, cable systems and plastic components. However, as mentioned above evenif the industries have a high thermal demand they cover it with elelctricity.

4.2.5. Qualitative assessment of solar process heat in Tunisia

This section summarizes the qualitative findings of the analysis of SHIPc in Tunisia, an overviewis provided in Table 16. Again, the results, especially the solar share, are estimations. Inaddition to the findings from the company assessment the political situation in Tunisia has tobe taken into account. In respect to RE and investment climate it is still unclear in which waythe new government will continue.72see http://www.tunisianindustry.nat.tn/en/download/cepi/iaa05.pdf (last accessed 20.01.2012)73data from Tunisian agency for the Promotion of Industry and Innovation (1)

57

Table 16: Results from company visits in Tunisia74

company prod

uct/process

processtempe

rature

in◦ C

roof

solarshare

supp

lytempe

rature

in◦ C

heat

carrier

days

ofprod

uctio

n

hoursof

prod

uctio

n

fuel

Textile 1 Dying 140 C / S M 175 steam 365 12 gasTextile 2 Washing 110 S L 150 steam 330 24 gasTextile 3 Dying 140 S L 180 steam 365 24 gasTextile 4 Dying 130 S H 180 steam 330 10 gasTextile 5 Washing 110 S H 175 steam 365 24 gasFood 1 Soft drinks 170 S L 230 steam 365 8 gasPlastic Cables, sheets 200 All heat demand covered with electricity

Institutional

• There is a very good and proven institutional framework. Tunisia even has a projectfocussing on solar process heat.

• Tunisia supports SHIP with direct subsidies, soft loans and support for feasibility studiesand pilot projects.

• The PST mentions SHIP explicitly and has also projects for solar drying and solar cooling.

• There are great differences of DNI within Tunisia, DNI ranges from 1800 to 2600 kwh/m2/a(Trieb et al., 2005). Also there is major uncertainty, Meteornom currently has two stationswith irradiation measurement75.

74Roof: C = Concrete, S = Sheets (metal); Solar share: L = low (<15 %), M = medium (15-50 %), H = High(>50 %)

75Assessed from the station map on the Meteonorm website on 20.01.2012;http://meteonorm.com/support/toolbox/stations/

58

Industrial

• Gas is the dominant energy source in Tunisia. The kWhth (only fuel, without equipmentand losses) costs around 0.014 e (natural gas), 0.016 e (heavy fuel oil) and 0.04 e(liquefied petroleum gas).

• Like in Morocco, the major findings from previous studies on SHIP were confirmed (i)steam is the dominant heat carrier, (ii) roofs are too small for high solar share (iii) andthe roof construction is often a further impedement. Moreover, (iv) only few companiesmention environmental values and (v) there is little awareness about the possibility ofSHIP.

• Very strong textile industry, but most companies are small. Still, many companies havea capacity beyond 1 MW.

• No major industry in the south were DNI values are substantially higher.

• Support for CHP can make SHIP more difficult.

• Not all companies have access to the as grid. However, the STEG actively expands thegas grid (see Appendix B).

• Already several desalination plants76. This can be an interesting application in the future.

Thus, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) Energy prices are very low but there isgood support for SHIP. (2) Again, the characteristics of LFC (space efficiency and direct steamgeneration) are important for SHIPc. (3) Also, low EE can be an obstacle for the applicationof SHIP.

4.3. Comparison of countriesBoth, Morocco and Tunisia, are newly industrialized countries. Still, in Tunisia the industrialsector is relatively stronger (in terms of employment and GDP) and also the GDP per capitais higher. Both countries have ambitious plans for RE and a substantial potential for SHIPc.Morocco focuses on large projects for electricity generation, while Tunisia concentrates more onsmaller projects77. In respect to SWHMorocco only does capacity building and raises awareness,76In July 2010 a 50,000m3/day contract was signed with an industrial consortium. see: http://www.

desalination.biz/news/news_story.asp?src=nl&id=5431 (last accessed 05.02.2012)77At the time of writing Nur Energies announced that it plans to build a 2 GW CSP plant in Tunisia. http://

www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/23509/tunisia-plans-2-gw-csp-plant-to-power-europe/ (last accessed04.02.2012)

59

Tunisia supports SWH financially. This is one reason why the newly installed collector are inTunisia is twice as big as in Morocco (Epp, 2011b), even though Tunisia only has a third of thepopulation. In respect to energy supply, Morocco has much less fossil fuels and the Moroccanindustry also has substantially higher energy prices. The Moroccan support mechanism viainvestments from the SIE is interesting for collective systems. However, they are very difficultto realize. Both countries have good DNI (especially in the south), but the lack of good grounddate is a severe impediment for SHIPc. In respect to the industry there are sectoral findings.The Tunisian textile employs more people despite a smaller population. Also the Tunisiantextile exports to the EU grew in the last decade while the Moroccans declined. Thus, theresult is ambiguous. Energy costs favour Morocco for SHIP, institutions rather Tunisia.

60

5. Economic and institutional assessment of solar processheat in Middle East and North Africa

This chapter is comprised of two parts. First, the major variables influencing the economicanalysis of SHIPc will be introduced and a sensitivity analysis performed. Afterwards, a ref-erence scenario for DSG is calculated for Morocco and Tunisia. A scenario for solar cooling isonly discussed, due to missing data.

5.1. Variables and sensitivity analysisMajor variablesTable 17 lists the major variables for the economic assessment of SHIPc, their reference valueas well as minimum and maximum. The list is not comprehensive, for example the land costsor the impact of the solar field on the boiler efficiency are not mentioned. Some of the as-

Table 17: Variables for economic assessment

Variable Reference Minimum Maximum Min - Max in %Price per m2 in e 400 300 700 75 – 175Subsidy per m2 in % 10 0 20 0 – 200DNI kWh/m2/a 2000 1700 2500 85 – 125Annual yields as % of DNI 40 35 45 87.5 – 112.5Operation & maintenance (O&M) in % 2.5 1 3 40 – 120Price increase O&M in % 3 2 4 67 – 133Interest rate in % 5 2 8 40 – 160Price per kWhth in e 0.03 0.015 0.05 50 – 167Boiler efficiency in % 80 70 90 88 – 112

sumptions need further commenting. First, the price of 400 e per m2 is rather low. It was notchosen in respect to installed boiler capacities in industry (price depends on installed capacity)but due to the fact that smaller systems are not feasible at the moment. Second, the ”annualyields in % of DNI” are also rather low compared with the efficiency from Figure 5. They arebased on simulations from Industrial Solar and can be explained by integrating the instanta-neous efficiencies over the year78. Third, the boiler efficiency is assumed to be 80 %. Duringthe company visits some boilers were rather new (less than 5 years) others were more than35 years old. Moreover, the best efficiency is often not achieved since boilers are not running78A substantial fraction of the annual DNI (in kWhth) comes at low intensities (low W/m2), for example after

sunrise / sunset, and can not be used.

61

at full capacities. In an assessment of Moroccan boilers in the fish meal industry the averageefficiency was found to be 78 % (CDM, 2006). Moreover, it is assumed that the lifetime is 20years, that the system is paid completely by credit (equity = 0 %), that the credit is paid backover the whole life time and that the discount rate equals the interest rate. The assumed priceper kWhel, necessary for the calculation of the CSHG is 0.06 e.

Sensitivity analysis - single varying inputAs outlined in Section 2.4 the impact of various input factors on the IRRM (see Equation 6)and the CSHG (see Equation 8) is assessed. The input factors were introduced in Table 17.First, a single varying input analysis is done. Therefore, the objective functions are solved withthe reference values from table 17 and the factors are changed independently. The relativechanges of IRRM and CSHG in response to the varying input factors are depicted in Figure 23and Figure 24. The changes are shown in a linear interpolation. Even though the relation isnot necessarily linear it is sufficient to identify the relative importance of various factors. Withthe values from Table 2.4 the following results are obtained (for calculation see Appendix D):

• IRRM = 6.13 %

• CSHG = 0.0125 e

... ..−100

.−50

.−25

.−10

.0

.10

.25

.50

.100

.

−50

.

0

.

50

.

Change of single variables in %

.

Cha

ngeof

IRR

Min

%

.

. ..Price of collector per m2 . ..O & M . ..Interest . ..Price fossil fuel

. ..Subsidy . ..Boiler efficiency . ..DNI . ..Efficiency

. ..Change in O&M . ..Prince increase fossil fuels

Figure 23: One variable sensitivity analysis of IRRM

62

... ..−100

.−50

.−25

.−10

.0

.10

.25

.50

.100

.−50 .

0

.

50

.

Change of single variables in %

.

Cha

ngeof

CSH

Gin

%

.

. ..Price of collector per m2 . ..O & M . ..Interest

. ..Subsidy . ..DNI . ..Efficiency

Figure 24: One variable sensitivity analysis of CSHG

There are major differences in the impact. The CSHG are only considering the costs for heatproduction. Thus, (i) the fossil fuel price, (ii) the CAAGR of the fossil fuel price, (iii) theefficiency of the boiler and (iv) the change of O&M costs79 have no impact and are not includedin Figure 24. Unlike in the calculation of the IRRM the consumption of electricity is consideredexplicitly in the CSHG. A price of 0.06 e per kWhel and a ratio of 1 kWhel per 50 kWhth isassumed, according to the VDI (VDI, 2011). It is important to note that all the results onlyhold in relation to the given reference scenario. Changing the interest rate for example, with anefficiency of 40 % brings different results compared to the case with an efficiency of 45 %. Still,the relative importance of the variables remains80. As explained above the IRR / IRRM shouldbe the decisive factor for investments. The single varying input analysis brings the followingresults:

• The price of the collector has a greater impact than the efficiency (which is reasonablyobtainable). Thus, reducing costs is probably more effective than increasing the efficiency.

• The impact of the interest rate is counter-intuitive. The reason why higher interest ratesincrease the IRR is that the saved money is invested at ibar.

79The costs hold only for t = 1, and a price escalation due to inflation has to be considered.80This is the case for the present analysis but is not necessarily the case for more complex and interdependent

factors. A mathematical proof can not be provided here.

63

• Taking the comparatively low impact of subsidy into consideration it can be a reasonableapproach to look for spots with very high DNI, instead of high subsidies. Even within acountry DNI can vary by more than 30 % (see Figure 18 and Figure 21). However, forpilot projects subsidies might also be even higher than 20 %.

• Costs reductions offer the greatest potential. Especially when comparing to costs esti-mations from CSP projects it can be seen that there is vast potential for a reduction incosts81. SHIPc projects will not be able to compete with CSP on prices per m2, yet thegap can be narrowed if demand, and thereby also production capacity, increases.

Sensitivity analysis - two varying inputsIn a next step the IRRM is assessed when two variables are changed simultaneously. FromFigure 23 it is obvious that the (i) interest rate, (ii) the price of fuel, (iii) the CAAGR offuel, (iv) the DNI and (v) the collector price per m2 have the strongest impact on the IRRM.When assessing an investment, ex ante information on interest rate, price of fuel as well asthe collector price per m2 are quite reliable. Thus, the input factors with highest uncertaintyand greatest impact are the CAAGR of fuel and the DNI. In a next step, both will be variedsimultaneously, the results are shown in Table 18. Under good conditions the IRRM can exceed10 %.

Table 18: Results from sensitivity analysis of IRRM in % with two varying variables

CAAGR of fossil fuel in %

DNIinkW

h/m

2 /a

3 4.5 5.5 6 7 8 9 10 111600 2.37 3.46 4.16 4.51 5.20 5.89 6.57 7.25 7.931700 2.88 3.93 4.62 4.96 5.64 6.31 6.99 7.66 8.331800 3.35 4.37 5.04 5.38 6.04 6.71 7.37 8.04 8.701900 3.77 4.77 5.43 5.76 6.42 7.08 7.74 8.39 9.052000 4.17 5.15 5.80 6.13 6.78 7.43 8.08 8.73 9.382100 4.54 5.50 6.15 6.47 7.11 7.75 8.40 9.05 9.702200 4.88 5.84 6.47 6.79 7.42 8.06 8.70 9.35 9.992300 5.21 6.15 6.78 7.09 7.72 8.35 8.99 9.63 10.282400 5.52 6.45 7.07 7.38 8.00 8.63 9.27 9.90 10.542500 5.81 6.73 7.34 7.65 8.27 8.90 9.53 10.16 10.80

81First, statically through economies of scale. Second, dynamically due to the learning curve.

64

5.2. Reference scenariosWithin this section two reference scenarios (DSG & solar cooling) are discussed for both Mo-rocco and Tunisia, whereas only the steam scenario is calculated. Thus, this section addressesthree major questions. First, what is the actual feasibility of SHIPc projects in Morocco andTunisia respectively? Second, which country is more favourable taking energy costs, DNI andsupport schemes into account? Another interesting question, which application is more feasible,steam generation or solar cooling, can not be answered. To respect the variations in DNI (ac-tual and measurement errors) the scenarios are discussed for DNI data provided for the majorindustrial areas (Casablanca and Tunis) as well as for identical values of 2000 kWh/m2/a. Theunderlying assumptions are the reference values from Table 17, the differences, in respect tothe reference values, are summarized in Table 19.

Table 19: Differences in reference scenarios81

Reference Casablanca Morocco2000 Tunis Tunisia2000

Interest rate in % 5 8 8 5 (soft loan) 5 (soft loan)Subsidy in % 10 0 0 20 20Price e /kWhth in e 0.03 0.035 0.035 0.016 0.016Price e /kWhel in e 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07DNI in kWh/m2/a 2000 1798 2000 1928 2000

Scenario for Steam ProductionFor the steam scenario it is assumed that installation is done at a large factory with constantdemand. Thus, a 4 MW collector field without storage is installed. For both locations, Moroccoand Tunisia, the same installation is assumed. The total investment costs for the steam scenarioare calculated with CINV = area (8000 m2) * price per m2 (400 e ) = 3.2 million e, includingtransport, installation and integration. Moreover, it is assumed that all energy gained can beused (production 365 days, no loss at peak times). As can be seen in Table 20, the IRRM is inall scenarios below the assumed interest rate of 8 % Morocco and 5 % Tunisia. Thus, SHIPc iscurrently not feasible in these countries (and therefore most likely also not in the other MENAcountries with substantially lower energy costs). Again attention has to be drawn to the roleof the interest rate in IRRM. In the case of Tunisia for example, IRRM could be even lower ifthe income from the saved energy is invested at higher rates than the 5 %. If a soft loan wouldbe available in Morocco feasible projects could already be realized.81DNI data from Meteonorm 6.1

65

Table 20: IRRM in the reference scenarios for steam production

Reference Casablanca Morocco2000 Tunis Tunisia2000

IRRM in % 6.13 7.12 7.88 1.89 2.86CSHG in e 0.0125 0.0153 0.0138 0.0119 0.0115

Qualitative description of a scenario for Solar CoolingSolar thermal cooling is still not well established and most projects are comparatively small. Thebiggest system is installed in Singapore, with a capacity of 1.575 MW82. Also in the literaturemost studies focus on small systems (below 100 kW), for example (Eicker and Pietruschka,2009), (Hartmann et al., 2011), (Mateus and Oliveira, 2009). Due to the cost structure ofLFC (see Figure 6) they are not suitable to power small absorption chillers. However, for largersystems concentrating collectors are very interesting. Multi-effect chillers can increase the COPabove 2 (Zahler et al., 2011), making an efficient use of the primary energy. A reference scenariocan not be done here, due to missing data. First, no literature covers system costs (chiller,storage) for systems above 1 MW. Second, also the load profile of the application has a crucialeffect. Eicker found that the suitable size of the solar field for a given annual energy demandcan vary by a factor of two only due to the load profile (Eicker and Pietruschka, 2009). Aninteresting system was installed in Qatar, where LFC power a double-effect absorption chiller(Zahler et al., 2011), yet no data on the economics was published. Large scale solar coolingsystems are a promising application for concentrating collectors, especially in the industry.Yet, more research is needed to identify suitable customers and to optimize installations (forexample in respect to storage).

82http://www.solid.at/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=134&Itemid=147&lang=en (last ac-cessed 07.01.2012)

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5.3. Institutions for solar industrial process heat in the Middle East andNorth Africa

Most RE products today are still more expensive compared to conventional solutions. Yet, sincethey reduce negative and strengthen positive externalities83 (e.g. pollution and job creation)they are often supported by a variety of mechanisms. A comprehensive overview over thesupport schemes for RE in MENA can not be given here due to the variety of technologies andsupport schemes. Thus, the focus is only on solar thermal technologies (without conversionto electricity). In domestic applications the thermal energy demand is lower compared toEurope (hot water & space heating) due to the climate. Nevertheless, there is a huge technicalpotential, especially for process heat or other institutions with constant demand. In mostMENA countries RE still play only a minor role and, since the efforts are often concentrated onfew large scale projects (e.g. in Morocco), there is little support for SWH / SHIP. The majorsupport mechanisms for SWH are (i) direct investment subsidies (for producer or consumers),(ii) soft loans, (iii) tariff reductions, (iv) awareness raising, (v) market building (e.g. qualitystandards). Building codes (minimum solar heat generation) are another way to support SWH,however, they are not listed since they do not apply for concentrating technologies due to lowertemperatures. Two more support schemes are described below.The Clean Development Mechanism was created under the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to reduce CO2 emissions. Investors can financeemission reductions at any location and trade their reduction certificates. However, due tohigh administrative costs this is only feasible for large projects which set of several thousandtons of CO2 per year. While this is too much for domestic SWH, it can be reached by SHIP84.The Bonus Model (Bürger, 2007) is a support scheme which provides a fixed bonus paymentper kWhth, similar to the feed-in tariff for electricity. The heat is not injected in a central gridbut rather produced and consumed locally. This makes it very difficult for policy-makers toset appropriate rates since costs vary regionally and over time. A contracting approach canovercome financing obstacles when industrial investors demand low payback times (Lauterbachet al., 2011a). However, it is a major challenge to find institutions with the capacity to monitorand reward energy yields. Still, for industrial sized installations this can be done. Even thoughit is a very interesting mechanism it is probably not suitable for MENA at the moment due tothe institutional challenges.

83Externalities are effects which accrue not to the owner of a project.84In Morocco a CDM project of 5 MWth of LFC for steam production was planed, but not re-

alized http://cdm.unfccc.int/filestorage/8/Z/S/8ZSYGRHIPUQMWXV2407NLT5D63CEFJ/PDD.pdf?t=ZjJ8bHg2Z2w5fDCgszriU7VEwxgwts34w2zp (last accessed 02.01.2012)

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5.3.1. Support schemes in Middle East and North Africa

This chapter builds mainly on a study by the Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit(GTZ) (GTZ, 2009a) comparing the situation in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Tunisia,as well as Algeria (Epp, 2011a) and Morocco (Epp, 2011b), (UNDP, 2011). The other countriesmentioned above were not included, but apart from Turkey, they also do not have substantialSWH support or industry to the authors knowledge. Algeria for example recently started itsproject ALSOL (Epp, 2011a). In its first pilot phase it supported 400 domestic systems, andcan not be evaluated yet - therefore it is also not mentioned in Table 21. The evaluationwhether there is a certain support scheme, especially for awareness raising or market building,is to a certain degree subjective (for Morocco and Tunisia there are substantial efforts throughPROSOL and PROMASOL as described above). Turkey has a strong SWH industry and higherenergy prices and should therefore be assessed separately.

Table 21: Overview of national support mechanisms

Country Con

sumer

subsidy

Prod

ucer

subsidy

Soft

loan

Customsredu

ction

Awarenessraising

Mark etbu

iling

Algeria√

no no√

no noEgypt no no no no no noJordan no no no no

√no

Lebanon no√ √

no no noMorocco no no

√ √ √ √

Syria no no no√

no noTunisia no

√ √ √ √ √

5.3.2. Analysis of support schemes

Since SHIP is a special case first the general framework for solar thermal technologies is dis-cussed. As can be seen in Table 21 only Tunisia has a comprehensive support which alsoexplains the great installed area of solar collectors. Due to low energy prices and income solarthermal technologies need direct financial support and appropriate financing schemes. From a

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macro perspective this is still reasonable since also fossil fuel prices are subsidized. Moreover,as can be seen in Tunisia, a new industry can develop. However, in order to harvest this poten-tial appropriate institutions are crucial. Tunisia provides a very good example for a successfulapproach which can probably be adopted to other MENA countries.

Institutions for SHIPTunisia is the only MENA country which explicitly addresses SHIP. To develop appropriateinstitutions certain aspects have to be taken into account.

• SHIP generally needs bigger installations compared to domestic applications. This pro-vides good reasons for focused institutions due to higher investment costs.

• Due to high demand investment can be quite large. This has to be considered in supportschemes.

• Industry has highest demands on reliability and a constant supply at constant conditionswhich makes integration more complex.

• Decision makers have higher expectations on IRR since they compare with other invest-ments.

• Awareness campaigns for domestic applications commonly do not address industry.

For these reasons it can not be expected that a substantial market for SHIP develops with-out specifically tailored institutions. Yet, at the same time the constant high energy demandprovides good reasons to support SHIP. Lorenzen (Lorenzen, 2011) made a life cycle assess-ment of a medium sized LFC system in South Africa and found that in less than 200 daysthe system would economise the CO2eq emissions. Even though the results can not be directlytransferred they are an indicator for the energetic amortization. For the reasons mentionedabove specifically SHIP focussed institutions are recommended. Another reason for SHIP spe-cific programmes is to ensure that SHIP does not crowd out efficiency improvements. Whenthe efficiency is low, there is little reasons to support solar energy which is later wasted inthe process. Programmes similar to the Moroccan FODEP which (i) address only industry,(ii) have sufficient fund for large investments, (iii) are backed by soft loans from internationaldonor organizations and have (iv) comprehensive guidelines for applicability can be successfulin tapping the potential of SHIP.Collective systems as a promising business model?Whether or not a substantial amount of the thermal energy demand in industry will be gener-ated by the sun depends not only on the technical details but also on the business model. One

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possibility is to develop collective systems in industrial areas. This has three major advantages.First, these systems have lower costs per m2 due to their size (see Figure 6, Figure 23 andFigure 24). Second, the heterogeneous demand of various companies levels the demand curve(same energy form at different times, different energy forms e.g. heat and cooling) and therebyeases integration. Third, other financing sources can be used which might reduce financingcosts. The approach of the Moroccan SIE is a very good example where only collective sys-tems can make use of the funds. However, at the same time collective systems have inherentchallenges. Questions like the following have to be addressed: What is the right operatinginstitution? How can competing companies agree on common energy supply? Which industriesfit together? Where are suitable industrial areas in terms of area, DNI etc.?

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6. Summary and conclusionsThis sections summarizes the major findings of the study and gives recommendations for policymakers and the private sector. The country specific results from Section 4.1.5 and Section 4.2.5are not completely repeated. The study was done against a background where (i) society isfaced with several energy challenges which can be overcome by RE, (ii) the use of solar ther-mal energy in industry has advantages over domestic applications, (iii) suitable concentratingtechnologies are available and (iv) MENA has sufficient DNI for their application. Thus, thereis a substantial potential for SHIPc in MENA, of around 201 TWh. In the introduction it wasalready shown, that the topic also has a social dimension. If countries do not manage addressthe energy challenges, for example by shifting towards RE, this can impede their social andeconomic development in the mid to long term.Chapter 2 introduced the basics of solar energy, LFC, integration of SHIP and tools for afinancial analysis necessary for this study. In Chapter 3 the energy situation in MENA wasassessed, the potential for SHIP estimated and the countries compared. Morocco and Tunisia,were identified as most promising for SHIP in the short term. Furthermore, several industrialsectors were introduced which have a high potential for SHIPc. In Chapter 4 the situation ofSHIPc in Morocco and Tunisia, was examined comprehensively taking into account social, eco-nomic, industrial and technical issues. One finding was that there are major differences in thecondition of an industrial sector. The Moroccan textile sector, for example, is on decline and theMoroccan fish industry suffers under shortage of supply. In Tunisia, the situation is influencedby the revolution. Factors like these have an impact on the openness of companies to investin SHIP. Moreover, several companies were visited and examined on the potential of SHIPc.The results of the company visits provide an insight into the situation of SHIPc in Moroccoand Tunisia. However, results can not be directly transferred to other companies. One process,the production of bitumen roofs, was identified as highly promising for SHIPc in MENA (theprocess description was put in Section 3.6) which was not mentioned in earlier studies. Alsothe production of fish meal can be interesting for SHIPc. In Chapter 5 an economic assessmentof SHIPc in Morocco and Tunisia was done. The sensitivity analysis elaborated the impact ofthe various factors. Apart from the costs per m2, the uncertainty of DNI and the CAAGRof fossil fuels are a challenge in developing suitable business models. The reference scenariosdemonstrated that without subsidies SHIPc is not feasible, neither in Morocco nor in Tunisia.The institutional assessment (see Section 5.3.1) showed that the institutional framework forSHIP in MENA is, apart from Tunisia, insufficient. Moreover, there are major differences inthe institutions. The Moroccan approach favours large systems, for SHIP this could imply

71

collective systems for industrial parks. This has to be taken into account by companies offeringSHIP solutions.The major findings of other studies on SHIP were confirmed, especially the major challengesas listed in Section 3.7. As explained in the introduction, the paper builds on the hypothesisthat LFC have major advantages for SHIPc over other concentrating technologies, mainly PTC.It was not the objective of the study to compare them in detail. Nevertheless, higher spaceefficiency, the relative ease of roof constructions (wind and weight) and advantages in DSGconfirmed the hypothesis.

Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and ThreadsA analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threads (SWOT) is a good mean tosummarize key results. The objective of this study, to assess the potential of LFC for SHIPc

in MENA, is very comprehensive since also industrial and institutional aspects are considered.The SWOT analysis thus is on the macro level, (dis-) advantages of LFC compared to othertechnologies are mentioned but not in detail.

Table 22: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threads of LFC in MENA

Strengths Weaknesses+ Potential for large reduction in fossil fuelconsumption

- Technology still expensive

+ Advantages of LFC for process heat - LFC still less common due to dominance ofPTC in CSP

+ Very high DNI in MENA - SHIP more difficult to support compared tofeed-in tariffs for electricity

+ Higher potential of SHIPc than SHIP - Non-concentrating technologies easier to op-erate

Opportunities Threads+ Development of new industry for SHIP - Major added value abroad due to missing

capacities+ Long term competitive advantage due tolow energy prices

- More expensive in the short term

- Crowding out of other technologies (e.g.wind) which might be mire cost competitive.

Recommendations for suitable industriesAll industries are faced with the challenge to guarantee a reliable and cost effective energysupply. Due to the rise of fossil fuel prices RE will soon be cost competitive. For companiesan energy audit is the first step to understand their demand. Increasing the efficiency is most

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often the cheapest method. Still, it is reasonable to consider the usage of SHIP early. First,when new plants are constructed it is easy to build roofs which allow solar energy collection.Second, also in the choice of the boiler it is reasonable to keep in mind the integration of SHIP.Finally, the costs of land might be a reason when selecting new production spots. If costs arelow, energy can be collected on the ground.

Recommendations for producer of SHIP equipmentAs was shown above in the country analysis a comprehensive approach is necessary to identifypromising companies. This includes not only an assessment of the industries and sub-sectors,but national DNI data and subsidies. Due to the varying yields over the day processes withincluded storage are very promising, as for example bitumen processing. Even though largecollective systems for several companies are an interesting opportunity they are probably dif-ficult to realize in the short term. Thus, the focus should rather be on very big companies. Asuitable indicator can be whether a company is listed at the stock exchange, for Morocco andTunisia the listed companies are shown in Appendix C. Taking into account the results fromthe sensitivity analysis, cost reductions are of greater importance than an increase in efficiency.

Recommendations for policy makersThe high and constant energy demand in industry is a major advantage over domestic ap-plications of solar thermal energy, especially in the climate of MENA. Unfortunately, mostcompanies are not aware of these technologies. Thus, (i) awareness raising is important. Thecomparison of the Moroccan and Tunisian programs for SWH showed (ii) that there should bedirect financial support, and soft loans. For very large systems contracting models are attractivesince they offer secure investments for financiers and take away large investments for industry.Thus, (iii) a suitable institutional framework for contracting models is beneficial. It is alsoimportant (iv) to have support schemes focused on industry in order to avoid that RE crowdout more effective investments in EE. Furthermore, to realize SHIP projects it is important (v)to invest in capacity building, especially in the know how of planning and installing complexsystems. As the uncertainty of DNI data is a major impediment (vi) ground measurementsin major industrial areas reduce uncertainties. Finally, (vii) pilot projects and more detailedstudies should be conducted in industries with the greatest potential (in respect to demand,sector condition and process).

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List of Figures1. Model of a linear Fresnel collector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122. Crucial planes in linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133. Astigamatism in linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144. Monthly average yields . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155. Thermal efficiency of linear Fresnel Collector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166. Cost function of linear Fresnel collectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177. Daily yield profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188. Integration of solar collectors in processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199. Thermal storage concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2210. Steam accumulator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2211. Fire-tube boiler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2412. High speed steam generator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2413. Energy consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3414. Industrial energy demand in Germany . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3415. Final energy consumption of industrial sectors in Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3416. Temperature distribution for European industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3517. Energy demand in US textile industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3718. Map of Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4219. Moroccan petroleum subsidies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4320. Direct normal irradiation in Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4421. Map of Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5222. Direct normal irradiation in Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5323. One variable sensitivity analysis of IRRM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6224. One variable sensitivity analysis of CSHG . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

List of Tables1. Differences in DNI data from various institutions for MENA . . . . . . . . . . . 112. Differences in DNI data from various institutions for MENA . . . . . . . . . . . 123. Comparison of boiler concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 244. Outputs in poly-generation at various temperature levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255. Energy demand and CO2 emissions in MENA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 306. Sustainability criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

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7. Crucial indicators for country selection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 338. Thermal processes in the dairy sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389. Overfiew of solar cooling technologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3910. Economic data for Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4711. Overview of selected Moroccan industrial sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4812. Results from company visits in Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5013. Support rates for renewable energies in Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5614. Economic data for Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5615. Overview of selected Tunisian industrial sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5716. Results from company visits in Tunisia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5817. Variables for economic assessment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6118. Results from sensitivity analysis of IRRM with two varying variables . . . . . . . 6419. Differences in reference scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6520. IRRM in the reference scenarios for steam production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6621. Overview of national support mechanisms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6822. SWOT Analysis of LFC in MENA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72

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List of Abbreviationsq thermal output of receiver

ΘL longitudinal angle

ΘT transversal angle

ΘZ zenith angle

ϵ emissivity

ηopt optical efficiency

ηth thermal efficiency

γ azimuth angle

ϕpr inclination angle of the primary receivers

σ Stefan-Boltzmann constant 5.67 * 10-8 W/m2K4

a annum

Apr area of primary receivers

Aabs absorber area

Aap aperture area

ADEREE Agence nationale pour le développement des énergies renouvelables et de l’efficacitéénergétiqueNational Agency for the development of renewable energies and energy efficiency

AFD Agence Francaise de DéveloppementFrench Development Agency

AHK Deutsche AuslandshandelskammerGerman Chamber of Commerce

AMISOLE Association Maroccaine des Industrie Solaires et EoliennesMoroccan Association for Solar and Wind Industry

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ANME Agence Nationale pour la Maîtrise de l’ÉnergieNational Agency for Energy Conservation

ARMA Asphalt Roofing Manufacturers Association

BMWI Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und TechnologieFederal Ministry of Economics and Technology

BP Beyond Petroleum

BWA Bitumen Waterproofing Association

C Celsius

CCons Costs for consumption (e.g. electricity to drive pumps and motors)

CINV Costs for investment

CkWh(el) Costs for kWh of electricity

CO&M Costs for operation and maintenance

CSHG Costs for solar heat generation

CAAGR Compound average annual growth rate

CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

CDER Centre de développement des énergies renouvelablesCentre for Development of Renewable Energies

CDM Clean Development Mechanism

CF Cash flow

CHP Combined Heat and Power

CO2eq Carbon dioxide equivalents

CO2 Carbon dioxide

COP Coefficient of performance

CPC Compound parabolic concentrating (collector)

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CR Concentration ratio

CSP Concentrated solar power

Dh Dirham; Currency in Morocco. 1 Dh = centimes

DII Desertec Industrial Initiative

DLR Deutschen Zentrums für Luft- und RaumfahrtGerman Aerospace Centre

DNI Direct normal irradiation

DSG Direct Steam Genration

EE Energy efficiency

EEAA Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency

EPA Environmental Protection Agency (US)

ESTIF European Solar Thermal Industry Federation

fa Annuity factor - to calculate constant annual payments

FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

FIPA Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (Tunisia)

FNME Fonds National de Maîtrise de l’EnergieNational Fund for Energy Conservation

FODEP Fonds de Dépollution IndustrielleFonds for industrial de-pollution

G Global irradiance in W m-2

Gb Beam irradiance in W m-2

Gd Diffuse irradiance in W m-2

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GIZ / GTZ Gesellschaft für Internationale (ehemals: Technische) ZusammenarbeitSociety for international (former: technical) cooperation

87

GW gigawatt

h hour

Hrc horizontal distance to receiver

HCP Haut-Commissariat au Plan du MarocHigh economic advisory committee

HDI Human Development Index

HVAC Heating, ventilation and air conditioning

ibar Interest rate at capital market

IEA International Energy Agency

IRESEN Institut de Recherche en Energie Solaire et Energies Nouvelle (Morocco)Research institute for new and solar energies

IRR Internal rate of return

IRRM Modified internal rate of return

K Kelvin

KFW Kreditanstalt für WiederaufbauCredit Institute for Reconstruction

kg kilogram

km kilometre

kW Kilowatt

kWh Kilowatt hour

LFC Linear Fresnel collector

LT Lifetime

MASEN Maroccan Agency for Solar Energy

MEMEE Ministere de l’Energie, des Mines, de l’Eau et de l’Environnement (Morocco)Ministry for Energy, Mining, Water and the Environment

88

MENA Middle East and North Africa

MICNT Ministère de l’Industrie, du Commerce et des Nouvelles Technologies (Tunisia)Ministry of Industry, Trade and New Technologies

MIT Ministère de l’Industrie et du CommerceMinistry for Industry and Trade

Mtoe Mega tonnes oil equivalent

MW Megawatt

NPV Net present value

NRCA National Roofing Contractors Association

O&M Operation and maintenance

ONA Omnium North – Africaine

ONE Office National de l’ElectricitéNational agency for electricity

POSHIP Potential Of Solar Heat for Industrial Processes

PP Payback period

PROMASOL Programme national de développement du marché de chauffe-eau solaireProgramme for the national market development of solar water heaters

PROMISE PROduzieren MIt Solar EnergieProducing with solar energy

PROSOL Programme SolairSolar programme

PST Plan Solaire TunesienTunisian Solar Plan

PTC Parabolic trough collector

PV Photovoltaic

Qsol Annual solar energy yield in kWhth

89

r discount factor

R/P Resource to production ratio

RCMA Roof Coatings Manufacturers Association

RCREEE Regional Centre for Renewable Energies and Energy Efficiency

RE Renewable energies

SA Sensitivity analysis

SHIP Solar heat for industrial processes

SHIPc Solar heat for industrial processes with concentrating collectors

SIE Société Investment Energetiques (Morocco)Society for the Investment in Energy

STEG Société Tunisienne de l’Electricité et du GazTunisian Society for Electricity and Gas

STEG ER Société Tunisienne de l’Electricité et du Gaz Energies RenouvelablesTunisian Society for Electricity and Gas Renewable Energies

SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threads

T Temperature

t specific point within life time

Ta ambient temperature

tcm thousand cubic meter

TD Tunisian Dinar; 1 TD = 1,000 millime

TI Transperancy International

TPED Total primary energy demand

TPES Total primary energy supply

TR Tons refrigeration

90

TWh terrawatt hour

UAE United Arab Emirates

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme

UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization

VDI Verband Deutscher IngenieureGerman Engineering Association

W watt

WEF World Economic Forum

Xpr location of primary receivers

Zpr vertical distance to receiver

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A. Energy tariffs in Morocco and TunisiaTunisia: Electricity (medium tension, without taxes) (STEG, 2011a)

Customer fixed costs Energy prices in TD / kWhelTD / kW / month Day Peak Evening Noon

0.5 0.1253.5 0.11 0.168 0.133 0.085

water pumping 3.5 0.126 0.156 NA 0.085

Tunisia: Fossil fuels (STEG, 2011b)

Fuel Tarif Consumption Fixed costs Energy pricesm3 Abo Debit TN

Gas MP1 1000 – 4000 20 100 25.30Gas MP2 4000 – 30000 20 200 24.90Oil Heating oil n.a. n.a. n.a.

Morocco: Electricity (medium tension, including taxes) (ONE, 2011)

Tarif option Fixed costs Energy prices in DhDh / kVa / a 17:00 – 22:00 07:00 – 17:00 22:00 – 07:00

> 5500 h 1,729.33 0.7338 0.5499 0.49132500 – 5500 h 692.19 1.2041 0.7053 0.4913< 2500 h 346.10 1.6070 0.8289 0.5151

Morocco: Fossil fuels

Fuel Prices per l in DhHeating oil 0.36

92

B. Gasgrid in Tunisia

93

C. Food companies listed at the Moroccan and Tunisianstock exchange

Name sector issued capitalMorocco in Moroccan DirhamBrasseries du Nord Marocain beverages 500,000Brasseries du Maroc beverages 2,825,201Cartier Saada fruits 4,680,000Central Latiere dairy 9,420,000Cosumar sugar 4,191,057Dari couscous 298,375Lesieur Cristal oil & soapes 27,631,510Oulmes beverages 1,980,000Unimer fish 10,013,880

Tunisia in Tunisian DinarTunisie lait dairy 25,000,000Societe Frigorifique et Brasserie de Tunis beverages 66,000,000Societe de Production agricole de Teboulba poultry 10,500,000

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D. Exemplary calculation for reference case

Variable symbol unit valueinterest rate ibar % 5discount factor r % 5life time LT years 20cash flow CF ecertain point in time tinvestment costs CINV eprice per m2 e / m2 400subsidies 0.9Annual energy yields Qsol MWhthO&M rate % 2.5annuity factor faefficiency of boiler % 80irradiation kWh / m2 / a 2000price per kWh e /kWh 0.03price increase fossil fuels % 6price increase O&M % 3consumption costs CCons e /kWh 0.0012

IRRM = (1 + ibar) ∗LT

√√√√∑LTt=0

(CFt)(1+r)t

CINV

+ 1− 1

CSHG =CINV ∗ fa + CO&M

Qsol

+ CCons

CINV = 8000m2 ∗ 400e ∗ 0.9 = 2, 880, 000e

Qsol = 8000m2 ∗ 2000kWh/m2/a ∗ 0.4 = 6, 400MWhth

CO&M(t=1) = 2, 880, 000e ∗ 0.025 = 72, 000e

20∑t=0

CFt

(1 + 0.05)t= −CINV −NPVexpenditures +NPVsavings = 980, 191e

NPVexpenditures = 72, 000e ∗ 1

(1 + 0.05)20+

(1 + 0.03)20 − (1 + 0.05)20

(0.03− 0.05)= 1, 149, 464e

95

NPVsavings = 240, 000e ∗ 1

(1 + 0.05)20+

(1 + 0.03)20 − (1 + 0.06)20

(0.06− 0.05)= 5, 009, 655e

Savingst=1 =6, 400MWhth ∗ 0.03 ekWh

0.8= 240, 000e

fa =(1 + 0.05)20 ∗ 0.05(1 + 0.05)20 − 1

= 0.0802

IRRM = (1 + 0.05) ∗ 20

√980, 191e

2, 880, 000e+ 1− 1 = 0.065 = 6.5%

CSHG =2, 880, 000e ∗ 0.0802 + 72, 000e

6, 400MWhth

+0.06e

50kWh= 0.0127e

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E. Economic potentials for renewable energies in MiddleEast and North Africa and further energy data

Economic potentials in TWh (Trieb et al., 2005)

Country Hyd

ro

Geo

Bio

CSP

Wind

PV

Algeria 0.5 4.7 12.1 168,972 35.0 13.9Bahrain n.a. n.a. 0.2 33 0.1 0.3Egypt 50 26 15 73,656 90 36Jordan 0.1 n.a. 1.6 6,429 2.0 4.5Kuwait n.a. n.a. 0.8 1,525 n.a. 2.5Libanon 1.0 n.a. 0.8 14 0.2 1.5Lybia n.a. n.a. 1.7 139,477 15 3.9Morocco 4.0 10 14 20,146 25 17Oman n.a. n.a. 1.1 19,404 8.0 4.1Qatar n.a. n.a. 0.1 792 n.a. 1.0Saudi Arabia n.a. 71 9.9 124,560 20 14Syria 4.0 n.a. 4.7 10,210 12 8.5Tunisia 0.5 3.2 3.2 9,244 8.0 5.0Turkey 122 150 55 131 55 29UAE n.a. n.a. 0.7 1,988 n.a. 3.0Yemen n.a. 107 9.1 5,100 3.0 26

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Indicator Algeria Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 152.3Production gas Mtoe 70.1Production crude oil Mtoe 82.1Production others Mtoe 0.1Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 39.8Production / TPES % 382.7Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 25Energy consumption gas Mtoe 9.1Energy consumption oil Mtoe 13.1Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 2.7Energy consumption others Mtoe 0.1Energy consumption electricity Twh 33.9Energy consumption industry Mtoe 4.4Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 2.2Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.9Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 1.2Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0.1ResourcesResources gas tcm 4.5R/P ratio gas years 55.3Resources oil tMt 1.5R/P ratio oil years 18.5CSP performance Index kWh/m2/year 2,700CSP economic potential TWhel/year 168,972Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 52.65PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.20CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 3.6Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe -123.77Net trade gas MtoeNet trade oil (crude and product) MtoeEmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 88.09CO2 per kWh kgCountry DataPopulation (in 2010) million 35.46GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 159GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 4,495Industry % of GDP 62Transparency index rank of 178 105

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Indicator Bahrain Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 17.5Production gas Mtoe 7.9Production crude oil Mtoe 9.6Production others Mtoe 0Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 9.5Production / TPES % 184Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 5.1Energy consumption gas Mtoe 2.9Energy consumption oil Mtoe 1.3Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 0.9Energy consumption others Mtoe 0Energy consumption electricity Twh 10.8Energy consumption industry Mtoe 3.0Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 2.9Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.1Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0ResourcesResources gas tcm 0.09R/P ratio gas years 6.7Resources oil tMt n.a.R/P ratio oil years n.aCSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,050CSP economic potential TWhel/year 33Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 219.8PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.13CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % -6Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe -6.76Net trade gas Mtoe 0Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -6.76EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 22.3CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2009) million 1.17GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 20.6GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 17,606Industry % of GDP n.a.Transparency Index rank of 178 48

99

Indicator Egypt Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 88.2Production gas Mtoe 51.5Production crude oil Mtoe 33.9Production others Mtoe 2.8Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 72.0Production / TPES % 122.5Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 49Energy consumption gas Mtoe 11.9Energy consumption oil Mtoe 24.8Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 10.2Energy consumption others Mtoe 2.1Energy consumption electricity Twh 123.4Energy consumption industry Mtoe 15.1Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 8.0Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 3.3Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 2.6Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0.8Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0.4ResourcesResources gas tcm 2.19R/P ratio gas years 34.9Resources oil tMt 0.6R/P ratio oil years 16.2CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,800CSP economic potential TWhel/year 73,656Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 119PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.2CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 9Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe -15.52Net trade gas MtoeNet trade oil (crude and product) MtoeEmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 174.03CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2010) million 81.12GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 218,912GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 2,699Industry % of GDP 38Transparency index rank of 178 98

100

Indicator Jordan Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 0.3Production gas Mtoe 0.16Production crude oil Mtoe 0.1Production others Mtoe 0.04Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 7.4Production / TPES % 4Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 4.7Energy consumption gas Mtoe 0Energy consumption oil Mtoe 3.6Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.Energy consumption others Mtoe 0.1Energy consumption electricity Twh 12.5Energy consumption industry Mtoe 1.1Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.25Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0.85Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0ResourcesResources gas tcm n.a.R/P ratio gas years n.a.Resources oil tMt n.a.R/P ratio oil years n.a.CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,700CSP economic potential TWhel/year 6,429Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 99.37PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.61CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 19Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe 7.17Net trade gas Mtoe 2.572Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe 4.598EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 18.42CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2010) million 6.05GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 27.574GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 4,557Industry % of GDP 33Transparency index rank of 178 50

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Indicator Kuwait Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 130.2Production gas Mtoe 9.3Production crude oil Mtoe 120.9Production others Mtoe 0Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 30.2Production / TPES % 421Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 11.7Energy consumption gas Mtoe 2.7Energy consumption oil Mtoe 6.1Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 2.9Energy consumption others Mtoe 0Energy consumption electricity Twh 46.6Energy consumption industry Mtoe 3.6Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 2.7Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0.9Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0ResourcesResources gas tcm 1.78R/P ratio gas years >100Resources oil tMt 14R/P ratio oil years >100CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,100CSP economic potential TWhel/year 1,525Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 2,465PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.2CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 1.3Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe -124.811Net trade gas Mtoe 0Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -124.811EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 69.49CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2009) million 2.64GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 109.463GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 41.463Industry % of GDP n.a.Transparency index rank of 178 54

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Indicator Lebanon Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 0.17Production gas Mtoe 0Production crude oil Mtoe 0Production others Mtoe 0.17Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 6.6Production / TPES % 2.6Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 4.4Energy consumption gas Mtoe 0Energy consumption oil Mtoe 3.1Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.1Energy consumption others Mtoe 0.2Energy consumption electricity Twh 13.1Energy consumption industry Mtoe 0.6Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.3Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0.2Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0.1ResourcesResources gas tcm n.a.R/P ratio gas years n.a.Resources oil tMt n.a.R/P ratio oil years n.a.CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,000CSP economic potential TWhel/year 14Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 28.05PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.76CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 12Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe 5.227Net trade gas Mtoe 0Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe 5.045EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 15.23CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2010) million 4.23GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 39,155GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 9,262Industry % of GDP 21Transparency index rank of 178 127

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Indicator Lybia Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 87.1Production gas Mtoe 13Production crude oil Mtoe 74Production others Mtoe 0.164Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 20.4Production / TPES % 426Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 10.7Energy consumption gas Mtoe 2.3Energy consumption oil Mtoe 6.3Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.9Energy consumption others Mtoe 0.2Energy consumption electricity Twh 26.1Energy consumption industry Mtoe 1.7Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 1.0Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.4Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0ResourcesResources gas tcm 1.54R/P ratio gas years >100Resources oil tMt 5.8R/P ratio oil years >73.4CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,700CSP economic potential TWhel/year 139,477Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 718PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.12CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % -3.5Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe -85.24Net trade gas Mtoe -8.493Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -76.74EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 44.85CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2009) million 6.36GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 62.360GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 9,805Industry % of GDP 78Transparency index rank of 178 146

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Indicator Morocco Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 0.8Production gas Mtoe 0Production crude oil Mtoe 0Production others Mtoe 0.8Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 15.1Production / TPES % 5.3Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 11.6Energy consumption gas Mtoe 0Energy consumption oil Mtoe 9.1Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.9Energy consumption others Mtoe 0.6Energy consumption electricity Twh 23.9Energy consumption industry Mtoe 2.7Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.7Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 1.9Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0.1Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0ResourcesResources gas tcm n.a.R/P ratio gas years n.a.Resources oil tMt n.a.R/P ratio oil years n.a.CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,600CSP economic potential TWhel/year 20,146Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 43.41PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.83CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 5Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe 14.24Net trade gas Mtoe 0.43Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe 9.496EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 42.09CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2010) million 31.95GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 91.196GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 2,802Industry % of GDP 30Transparency index rank of 178 85

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Indicator Oman Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 67.2Production gas Mtoe 23.6Production crude oil Mtoe 43.6Production others MtoeTotal Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 15.0Production / TPES % 448Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 7.5Energy consumption gas Mtoe 1.7Energy consumption oil Mtoe 4.5Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.3Energy consumption others Mtoe 0Energy consumption electricity Twh 15.5Energy consumption industry Mtoe 2.1Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0.3Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.1Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 1.6Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0ResourcesResources gas tcm 0.6R/P ratio gas years 39.6Resources oil tMt 0.8R/P ratio oil years 18.9CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,200CSP economic potential TWhel/year 19,404Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 86.57PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.38CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 3.4Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe -42.72Net trade gas Mtoe -11.327Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -31390EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 34.92CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2009) million 2.71GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 46.866GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 17,293Industry % of GDP n.a.Transparency index rank of 178 41

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Indicator Qatar Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 140Production gas Mtoe 79.5Production crude oil Mtoe 60.5Production others MtoeTotal Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 23.8Production / TPES % 588Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 14.2Energy consumption gas Mtoe 7.2Energy consumption oil Mtoe 5.2Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.8Energy consumption others Mtoe 0Energy consumption electricity Twh 23Energy consumption industry Mtoe 5.3Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 3.6Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.5Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 1.2Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0ResourcesResources gas tcm 25.37R/P ratio gas years >100Resources oil tMt 2.8R/P ratio oil years 54.7CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,000CSP economic potential TWhel/year 792Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 455.2PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.19CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % naPrice kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe -99.8Net trade gas Mtoe -51.51Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -48.29EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 53.91CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2009) million 1.6GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 98,313GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 61,445Industry % of GDP n.a.Transparency index rank of 178 19

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Indicator Saudi Arabia Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 528.3Production gas Mtoe 61.3Production crude oil Mtoe 467Production others Mtoe 0Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 157.8Production / TPES % 334Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 97.8Energy consumption gas Mtoe 13.4Energy consumption oil Mtoe 68.6Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 15.8Energy consumption others Mtoe 0Energy consumption electricity Twh 199Energy consumption industry Mtoe 17.4Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 2.1Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 15.3Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0ResourcesResources gas tcm 7.92R/P ratio gas years >100Resources oil tMt 36.3R/P ratio oil years 74.6CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,500CSP economic potential TWhel/year 124,560Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 943.3PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.09CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % -0.1Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe -412.41Net trade gas Mtoe 0Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -412.42EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 389.16CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2010) million 27.45GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 434.666GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 15,834Industry % of GDP 70Transparency Index rank of 178 50

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Indicator Syria Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 23.6Production gas Mtoe 5Production crude oil Mtoe 18.4Production others Mtoe 0.2Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 22.5Production / TPES % 105Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 13.6Energy consumption gas Mtoe 1.1Energy consumption oil Mtoe 10.2Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 2.3Energy consumption others Mtoe 0Energy consumption electricity Twh 31.3Energy consumption industry Mtoe 3.9Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0.3Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.9Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 2.7Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0ResourcesResources gas tcm 0.28R/P ratio gas years 48.9Resources oil tMt 0.3R/P ratio oil years 18.2CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,200CSP economic potential TWhel/year 10,210Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 99.76PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.53CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 19Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe -3.71Net trade gas Mtoe 0.113Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -3.828EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 54.44CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2010) million 20.45GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 59.103GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 2,891Industry % of GDP 35Transparency index rank of 178 127

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Indicator Tunisia Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 7.8Production gas Mtoe 2.4Production crude oil Mtoe 4.1Production others Mtoe 1.3Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 9.2Production / TPES % 85Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 6.5Energy consumption gas Mtoe 1.2Energy consumption oil Mtoe 3.2Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 1.1Energy consumption others Mtoe 1Energy consumption electricity Twh 13.7Energy consumption industry Mtoe 1.6Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0.9Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.4Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0.3Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0ResourcesResources gas tcm n.a.R/P ratio gas years n.a.Resources oil tMt n.a.R/P ratio oil years n.a.CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,400CSP economic potential TWhel/year 9,244Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 61.74PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.84CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 14Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe 1.78Net trade gas Mtoe 2.096Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -0.312EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 20.75CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2010) million 10.549GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 44.291GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 4,199Industry % of GDP 32Transparency index rank of 178 59

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Indicator Turkey Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 30.3Production gas Mtoe 0.6Production crude oil Mtoe 2.4Production others Mtoe 27.3Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 97.6Production / TPES % 31Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 73.1Energy consumption gas Mtoe 11.2Energy consumption oil Mtoe 28.6Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 13.3Energy consumption others Mtoe 20Energy consumption electricity Twh 165Energy consumption industry Mtoe 18.6Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 4.4Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 5.9Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 1.3Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 7ResourcesResources gas tcm n.a.R/P ratio gas years n.a.Resources oil tMt n.a.R/P ratio oil years n.a.CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,000CSP economic potential TWhel/year 131Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 18.77PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 1.62CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 12Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe 72.52Net trade gas Mtoe 30.244Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe 29.449EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 263.53CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2010) million 72.75GDP (in 2010) billion current US$ 735.264GDP per capita (in 2010) current US$ 10,106Industry % of GDP 28Transparency index rank of 178 56

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Indicator UAE Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 168.8Production gas Mtoe 40.9Production crude oil Mtoe 127.9Production others Mtoe 0Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 59.6Production / TPES % 283Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 41.8Energy consumption gas Mtoe 24.8Energy consumption oil Mtoe 10.6Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 6.3Energy consumption others Mtoe 0.1Energy consumption electricity Twh 79.5Energy consumption industry Mtoe 26.7Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 24.8Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0.8Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 1.1Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0ResourcesResources gas tcm 6.43R/P ratio gas years >100Resources oil tMt 13R/P ratio oil years >100CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,200CSP economic potential TWhel/year 1,988Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 2,032PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.62CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 11Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe -102.85Net trade gas Mtoe 6.022Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe 108.892EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 146.95CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2009) million 6.94GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 230.252GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 33,183Industry % of GDP 61Transparency index rank of 178 28

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Indicator Yemen Unit 2009Energy Production Mtoe 15.2Production gas Mtoe 0.5Production crude oil Mtoe 14.6Production others Mtoe 0.1Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) Mtoe 7.5Production / TPES % 203Energy ConsumptionTotal final energy consumption Mtoe 5.3Energy consumption gas Mtoe 0Energy consumption oil Mtoe 4.9Energy consumption electricity Mtoe 0.4Energy consumption others Mtoe 0Energy consumption electricity Twh 5.1Energy consumption industry Mtoe 0.8Energy consumption ind. gas Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. elec. Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. oil Mtoe 0.8Energy consumption ind. waste Mtoe 0Energy consumption ind. coal Mtoe 0ResourcesResources gas tcm 0.49R/P ratio gas years >100Resources oil tMt 0.3R/P ratio oil years 24.5CSP performance index kWh/m2/year 2,200CSP economic potential TWhel/year 5,100Freshwater consumption of renewable water % 169PricesPrice gasPrice oilPrice diesel US$ / litre 0.17CAAGR diesel (2000 – 2008) % 14Price kWhel for industryEnergy TradeNet balance Mtoe -7.9Net trade gas Mtoe 0Net trade oil (crude and product) Mtoe -7.9EmissionsCO2 from fuel combustion Mt 21.93CO2 per kWh kgSocio-economic dataPopulation (in 2009) million 23.4GDP (in 2009) billion current US$ 26.4GDP per capita (in 2009) current US$ 1,130Industry % of GDP n.a.Transparency index rank of 178 146

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Author´s Declaration

To the best of my knowledge I do hereby declare that this thesis is my own work. It has notbeen submitted in any form of another degree or diploma to any other university or otherinstitution of education. Information derived from the published or unpublished work of othershas been acknowledged in the text and a list of references is given.

Stuttgart, the

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