(PS-­‐2046)  Master  Control  Schedule  –    Planning  and  Risk  Analysis  Method  

MARTIN  GOUGH,  P.ENG.,  MARK  KRAHN,  PH.D.  PMP,  YAROSLAV  KOVALENKO,  MBA  

JUNE  30,  2015  

BIO  of  MarAn  Gough,  P.Eng.  

•  MarAn  is  a  professional  engineer  and  leads  Revay’s  large-­‐project  risk  management  pracAce.  He  has  more  than  35  years  of  diverse  project  experience  including  the  project  management  of  energy,  water  treatment,  infrastructure  development  and  industrial  projects;  the  construcAon  management  of  industrial  and  commercial  projects;  cost  engineering  for  oil  and  gas  development;  and  structural  design  for  oil  and  gas,  nuclear  power  and  uAlity  and  infrastructure  development.  

•  He  has  been  involved  in  the  evaluaAon  and  analysis  of  numerous  construcAon  claims  for  clients  in  the  petrochemical,  industrial  and  commercial  sectors.  

•  He  has  taught  project  management  for  the  University  of  Alberta  Energy  Sector  Programs,  and  for  the  University  of  Calgary’s  Schulich  School  of  Engineering  at  both  undergraduate  and  graduate  levels.    

   

2  

BIO  of  Mark  Krahn,  Ph.D.,  PMP  

•  Dr.  Mark  Krahn  has  10  years  experience  consulAng  with  Revay’s  large-­‐project  risk  management  pracAce.    He  has  conducted  risk  management  assignments  on  a  variety  of  industrial  and  commercial  projects  including:  pipelines,  oil  sands,  oil  &  gas,  mining;  ranging  in  size  from  $100M  to  $25B.  

•  Mark  is  formerly  co-­‐chair  of  the  PMI  ConsulAng  Community  of  PracAce;  member  of  the  development  team  for  PMI’s  PMBOK  4th  ediAon.  

•  He  teaches  project  management  and  PMP  courses  at  the  University  of  Calgary    and  with  corporate  clients  

•  And  something  you  don’t  know  about  me…  earlier    this  year  I  hiked  the  Great  Wall  of  China.  

3  

BIO  of  Yaroslav  Kovalenko,  MBA  

•  Yaroslav  leads  E&C  Risk  Management  Group  at  Williams,  an  energy  infrastructure  company  with  operaAons  that  span  from  the  deep-­‐water  Gulf  of  Mexico  to  the  Canadian  oil  sands.  

•  He  has  fibeen  years  of  diverse  internaAonal  experience  in  oil  and  gas  industry  in  Ukraine,  Libya,  Iraq,  Mexico  and  the  United  States.  

•  Yaroslav  has  a  Master’s  Degree  in  InternaAonal  RelaAons  from  Kyiv  NaAonal  Taras  Shevchenko  University  in  Ukraine,  and  an  MBA  from  The  University  of  Texas  at  Tyler.  

4  

•  He  implemented  risk  management  processes  across  mulAple  projects  and  enterprise-­‐wide.  

•  Something  you  don’t  know  about  me...  English  is  not  my  first  language  …  actually  it’s  my  fibh.  

THE  EMPIRE  STATE  BUILDING  

The  project  involved  3,400  workers,  mostly  immigrants  from  Europe,  along  with  hundreds  of  Mohawk  iron  workers,  many  from  the  Kahnawake  reserve  near  Montreal.  The  workers  who  put  in  seven  million  man-­‐hours  including  work  on  Sundays  and  holidays  earned  $15  a  day,  an  excellent  rate  of  pay  in  the  early  1930s.  

At  102  floors  and  a  roof  height  381  meters,  the  Empire  State  Building  was  constructed  in  a  only  410  days.  It  was  finished  three  months  early  and  the  final  costs  totaled  only  $24.7  million  ($380  US  million  2015  dollars)  of  the  esAmated  $43  million.  

General  contractors:  Starrej  Brothers  and  Eken.  How  they  accomplished  the  task  is  a  case  study  in  early,  successful  commercial  construcAon  management.  

5  to  14  workers  died  during  the  construcAon.  

How  was  it  done?  

Starrej  had  no:  •  No  CPM,  computers  and  scheduling  sobware  •  No  cellphones  or  email  •  No  electronic  document  transfer,  version  control  and  storage  •  No  earned  value  analysis  

There  can  only  the  be  one  conclusion  how  they  achieved  these  results:  

Yes, alien technology!

Or perhaps they just had a good:

Agenda  

•  Context  and  the  Issues  

•  The  Master  Control  Schedule  (MCS)  Methodology  

•  The  ImplementaAon  Steps  of  an  MCS  applicaAon  

•  Conclusions  

•  Field  TesAng  the  Methodology  

•  QuesAons  

7  

CONTEXT  AND  THE  ISSUES  

8  

Context  

 

9  

Abstract:  

The   requirement   to   provide   schedule   risk   assessment   (SRA)   at   early  stages  of  project  development,  when  no  detailed  schedules  have  been  developed,  has  proven  to  be  problemaAc.    

Then  again,   this   is   also   true   throughout  project   execuAon  as  detailed  schedules  are  developed,  elaborated  and  revised.  

The   requirement   of   risk   assessment   to   deliver   transparent   and  consistent   outcome   forecasts   is   frequently   in   conflict   with   the   equal  requirement  of  execuAon  schedules   to  direct  and  monitor  day-­‐to-­‐day  progress  of  the  work.  

SRA  Issues  

Schedule  Risk  Analysis  (SRA)…  …is  actually  a  planning  exercise,  yet  current  SRA  best-­‐pracAce  requires  a  complete,  integrated  project  schedule  prior  to  analysis.  

Schedule  ConLngency  Management  …there  is  no  clear  consensus  on  how  to  manage  schedule  conAngency.  

Consequently...  …lack  of  consistent  conAngency  management  strategy  at  key  milestones.  

Schedule  Updates…  

…require  significant  effort,  skill  and  paAence  to  maintain  resulAng  in  diminishing  schedule  integrity  throughout  update  cycles.  

 10  

Proposed  SRA  PracAce  SoluAons  

Recent  literature  proposes  that  soluLons  lie  in:  

Increasing  the  level  of  effort  (Lme  and  cost)  of  scheduling…  

…and  thereby  the  early  delivery  and  the  integrity  of  complex  detailed  schedules,  or  by    

Summarizing  detailed  schedules  into  simple  versions…  

…disconnecAng  those  versions  from  the  actual  schedule,  and  performing  approximate  SRA  exercises  on  those  simple  versions.  

11  

THE  MASTER  CONTROL  SCHEDULE  (MCS)  METHODOLOGY  

12  

A  Different  SoluAon  

Master  Control  Schedule  method…  

…disAnguishes  planning  from  scheduling  as  not  simply  increasing  levels  of  elaboraAon  of  the  same  process  but  discrete  funcAons,  each  suited  to  its  own  applicaAon  and  each  requiring  its  own  skill  set.      

Project  DuraLon  Risk  Analysis,  updates  and  conLngency  management…  

…all  take  place  within  an  integrated  workflow  planning  model  of  the  overall  project,  and  

The  Detailed  Scheduling…  

…required  to  resource  load,  manage  work  and  monitor  producAvity  consists  of  separate  exercises  connected  to  the  MCS  through  counterpart  control  node  milestones.    

13  

The  MCS  Premise  

The  Underlying  Premise  •  PLANNING  and  SCHEDULING  are  discrete  funcAons.  

14  

Requiring  different  skill  sets.  

The  MCS  SoluAon  

 PLANNING  

 Workflow  Diagrams  SRA,  schedule  planning,  conAngency  management  and  updates  all  take  

place  within  an  integrated  workflow-­‐planning  based  model  (Master  

Control  Schedule  or  control  node  schedule).  

 SCHEDULING    

 Gan]  Charts  

Detailed  scheduling  is  kept  at  the  discipline  level  and  is  only  Aed  to  the  

MCS  through  non-­‐driving  data  links  at  key  nodes  (or  milestones).    

15  

The  MCS  SoluAon  

PLANNING  Delivers:  •  Project  team  alignment.  •  Transparent  SRA  of  project  duraAon  uncertainty.  •  Auditable  conAngency  decision  management.  

•  Discipline  (or  sub-­‐project  integraAon)  •  Trusted  reports  suitable  for  the  short  ajenAon  span  of  senior  

management  and  commercial  leads.  

SCHEDULING  Delivers:  •  Detailed  determinisAc  Amelines  for  execuAon.  •  Increasing  elaboraAon  throughout  the  project  life-­‐cycle.  

•  Sufficient  detail  for  the  considerably  longer  ajenAon  span  of  discipline  and  operaAons  leads.  

    16  

Features  of  the  MCS  SoluAon  

•  SRA  at  the  early  project  stages…removes  the  requirement  for  

detailed  execuAon  schedules  prior  to  SRA.  

•  Early-­‐stage  integrated,  overall,  baseline  project  plan…with  team  

alignment  

•  A  reliable  pla^orm  for  repeatable  SRA…trusted  by  the  project  

team.  

•  Transparent  conLngency  management…at  the  control  nodes.  

•  Responsibility  and  accountability…for  detailed  discipline  (or  sub-­‐

project)  schedules,  SRA,  and  monitoring  and  management  remains  with  

the  discipline  (or  sub-­‐project)  leads.  

17  

THE  IMPLEMENTATION  STEPS    OF  THE  MCS  

18  

Step  1  –  Develop  Workflow  Diagrams  

19  

PLANNING:  The  MCS  modelling  begins  with  the  development  of  ADM  workflow  diagrams  for  each  discipline  (or  sub-­‐project).      

Example  Regulatory  and  Permirng  ADM  Workflow  Diagram    

Step  2  –  IdenAfying  Control  Nodes  

20  

PLANNING:  The  project  team  idenAfies  interconnecAng  control  nodes  within  each  of  the  discipline  workflow  diagrams.  

Example  of  InterconnecAng  Control  Nodes  between  Engineering  and  Procurement  and  ContracAng  workflows.  

Step  3  –  Building  the  MCS  Schedule  Model  

STILL  PLANNING…  

• ADM  logic  once  validated  by  the  project  leads…is  used  to  develop  CPM  schedules  for  each  discipline.  Each  discipline  schedule  then  becomes  a  sub-­‐schedule  for  the  overall  Master  Control  Schedule.  

• The  Master  Control  Schedule  consists  of  sub-­‐schedules…for  each  of  the  disciplines  linked  through  Control  Nodes.  

• The  Control  Nodes  schedule…consists  of  a  minimum  of  start  and  finish  nodes  for  each  discipline  sub-­‐schedule.  

• AddiLonal  control  nodes…are  connected  at  each  intermediate  inter-­‐discipline  dependency.  

21  

Step  3  –  Example:  Engineering  &  Procurement  

22  

A High-Level SCHEDULE of the PLAN (Still PLANNING really)

Step  4  –  Applying  DuraAons  to  the  MCS  

Once  the  MCS  schedule  network  is  complete:  

• …the  discipline  teams  will  esLmate  duraLons  for  each  acAvity  in  their  ADM  workflow  diagram.    

• …applying  these  duraAons  to  each  discipline  sub-­‐schedule  will  provide  a  first  iteraAon  of  a  determinisLc  duraLon  for  the  overall  project.  

• …likely,  it  will  be  the  case  that  the  iniLal  schedule  network  will  be  subject  to  addiLonal  logic  and  duraLon  data  reviews  and  analysis.  

• …this  will  be  necessary  to  maintain  alignment  both  between  the  separate  disciplines  and  with  any  calendar  requirements  of  the  business  case.  

23  

Step  5  –  Performing  Uncertainty  and  SRA  

•  Once  there  is  alignment  between  business  case  and  discipline  

schedules,  can  conduct  SRA.  

•  Two  schedule  risk  inputs:  

•  AcAvity  duraAon  ranges.  

•  Event  risks  impacAng  acAviAes.  

•  Ranges  determined  by  discipline  teams.  

•  Event  risks  determined  by  full  project  team.  

•  Risk  miAgaAon  conducted  by  the  project  lead  team.  

•  StochasAc  analysis.  

24  

Step  6  –Building  Detailed  ExecuAon  Schedules  

25  

•  Typically,  not  all  disciplines  will  produce  their  detailed  schedules  at  the  same  Lme.  Rather  the  detailed  schedules  will  be  developed  first  for  the  early  disciplines,  such  as  Regulatory  and  Environmental  Permirng  and  preliminary  design.  

•  To  provide  an  overall  uncertainty-­‐based  forecast  for  the  project,  the  MCS  method  only  needs  to  accommodate  detailed  schedules  as  they  become  available.    

•  The  discipline  leads  (or  service  providers)  will  be  provided  with  calendar  date  probability  results  for  each  of  their  discipline  control  nodes.  From  these  they  will  be  required  to  develop  their  own  separate  detailed  discipline  schedules.  

•  The  detailed  schedule  CPM  analysis  will  be  required  to  return  milestone  dates  for  the  MCS  control  node  counterparts.  

Step  6  –Building  Detailed  ExecuAon  Schedules  

26  

DETAILED  SCHEDULING  BEGINS  HERE…  

Step  7  –  Performing  Regular  Schedule  Updates  

27  

Regular  schedule  update  sub-­‐steps:  

1.  Discipline  teams  advise  of  changes  to  their  ADM  workflows.  

2.  Discipline  teams  collect  and  report  actual  and  forecast  control  node  dates  to  risk  assessment  team.  

3.  Risk  assessment  team  updates  the  MCS  schedule  network  logic.  

4.  Risk  assessment  team  performs  stochasAc  analysis  with  the  risk  and  uncertainty  inputs  provided  by  discipline  team.  

5.  Risk  assessment  team  returns  the  updated  control  node  median  dates  to  the  discipline  teams.  

6.  Risk  assessment  team  reports  forecast  compleAons  to  the  lead  team.  

The  BIG  Win:  PLANNING  and  DETAILED  SCHEDULING  together

Step  8  –  Ongoing  Schedule  Management  

The  project  lead-­‐team  monitors  and  manages  conLngency…within  the  MCS  schedule.    

The  discipline  leads  take  responsibility  for  development  and  management  of  their  work  scope…within  the  constraints  of  the  MCS  control  node  median  

calendar  dates.  

MCS  method  provides  trusted  schedule…data  to  the  project  lead-­‐team  that  allows  it  to  prioriAze  to  the  combined  metrics  of:  

•  CriAcal  and  near-­‐criAcal  workflow  paths.  

•  Control  node  uncertainty  ranges.  

•  Individual  discipline  (or  sub-­‐project)  performance.  

28  

MCS  Workflow  Overview  

29  

MCS  ApplicaAon  to  ReporAng  Cycles  

30  

CONTRACT  MILESTONE  CONTROL  NODE  DATES  

UPDATE CYCLES: CONTRACTORS’ UPDATES: PROGRESS ESTIMATES ACTIVITY ADDS AND DELETIONS LOGIC REVISIONS

MASTER CONTROL SCHEDULE APPROACH

OWNER  INTEGRATED  MASTER  CONTROL  SCHEDULE  

PROJECT  ADM  FLOWCHARTS  

INCLUDE  CONTROL  NODE  DATES  IN  CONTRACT  SPECIFICATIONS  

CONTRACTOR’S DETAILED SCHEDULES WITH COMCOMITANT CONTROL NODE MILESTONES

UPDATE  CYCLES:  OWNER  SUB-­‐PROJECT  SCHEDULE  MONITORING  TO  CONTROL  NODE  DATES    

OWNER SEPARATE DETAILED SCHEDULES DATA

EVA PROJECT REPORTS FOR EACH SUB-PROJECT Σ PV = PLANNED COST Σ AC = OWNER COST Σ EV = CONTRACTORS’ PROGRESS

EXECUTIVE  REPORT:  REVIEW  EVA  AND  COMPARE  MCS  CONTROL  NODE  DATES    

Σ DATA

CONCLUSION  

31  

Conclusion  –  Key  CharacterisAcs  

There  are  several  characterisLcs  and  benefits  of  this  method  however  the  two  fundamental  concepts  are:  

•  SeparaAng  the  planning  tasks  of  a  project  from  those  of  detailed  scheduling,  and  

•  Linking  detailed  discipline  schedules  and  high-­‐level  integrated  plans  through  control  nodes.      

32  

Conclusion  –  The  Key  Benefits  

•  Resolve  SRA  Issues…The  MCS  method  is  an  approach  with  the  potenAal  to  resolve  many  of  the  difficulAes  associated  with  the  early  development,  risk  analysis,  monitoring  and  updaAng  of  large  project  schedules.    

•  Auditable  Schedule  Decision  Support…MCS  offers  reliable,  consistent  schedule  uncertainty  informaAon  criAcal  to  supporAng  the  project  lead  team’s  decisions.    

•  PracLcal  Schedule  Maintenance…MCS  facilitates  the  maintenance  of  overall  schedule  integrity  while  keeping  with  the  discipline  (or  sub-­‐project)  teams  accountability  and  responsibility  for  delivery  of  the  work  within  their  area.  

33  

FIELD  TESTING    THE  METHODOLOGY  

34  

MCS  Field  TesAng  

•  Pilot  Project  •  Major  US  energy  infrastructure  project    

•  AddiAonal  Field  TesAng  •  Commercial  faciliAes  program  consisAng  of  13  concurrent  

projects  

35  

QUESTIONS/COMMENTS?    (PLEASE  USE  MICROPHONE)  

36