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Massachusetts. Alan Clayton-Matthews UMass Boston. Business Conditions Have Been Good. Still Some Slack in the Massachusetts Labor Market. The Demographically-Adjusted Unemployment Rate. Slower Growth This Expansion. Health, Hospitality, and High-Knowledge Lead the Way. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Massachusetts
Alan Clayton-Matthews
UMass Boston
Business Conditions Have Been Good
Merchandise Exports, Seaonally Adjusted 3-Month Moving Average
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07
1998
=10
0
US MA
Source: U.S. DOC, WISER, seasonally adjusted by author
Still Some Slack in the Massachusetts Labor Market
Educational Attainment Mass. U.S. DifferenceLess Than HS 8.32 9.63 -1.31High School Degree 7.46 5.30 2.17Some College 5.18 3.99 1.19BA or Higher Degree 2.78 2.40 0.38
Recent Migrants < HS 7.87 5.53 2.34
Souce: Current Population Surveys
Unemployment Rates, 2006 Annual Average
The Demographically-Adjusted Unemployment Rate
Unemployment Rates: U.S., Massachusetts, and Massachusets Adjusted to U.S. Demographics
4.0
4.7
5.86.0
5.55.1
4.6
2.8
3.7
5.35.8
5.24.8 5.0
3.3
4.3
5.8
6.7
5.95.7 5.8
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
US MA MA Adjusted
Source: Current Population Surveys, DUA, BLS, Author's Calculations
Slower Growth This Expansion
Employment Growth, Massachusetts vs US
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Qu
arte
rly
Gro
wth
at
An
nu
al R
ates
MA US
Source: NEEP
Health, Hospitality, and High-Knowledge Lead the Way
Payroll Employment, Massachusetts
96.0
98.0
100.0
102.0
104.0
106.0
108.0
110.0
06Q4 07Q4 08Q4 09Q4 10Q4 11Q4
2006
Q4=
100
Education & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Professional and BusinessServicesInformation
Total Payroll
Other Services
Financial Activities
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Government
Construction
Manufacturing
The Housing Downturn is Not Over
OFHEA Housing Price Index
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
04Q1 05Q1 06Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1
An
nu
al R
ate
of
Ap
pre
ciat
ion
(%
)
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
Ind
ex,
1980
Q1=
100
Appreciation Rate Price Index
History Forecast
The Law of Gravity
Ratio of Median House Price to Per Capita Personal Income
4.00
4.50
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
80Q1 82Q1 84Q1 86Q1 88Q1 90Q1 92Q1 94Q1 96Q1 98Q1 00Q1 02Q1 04Q1 06Q1 08Q1 10Q1
Massachusetts U.S.
Subprime Borrowers in Trouble
Delinquency Rate, Sub Prime 619
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
2000Q1 2001Q1 2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1
% o
f N
um
ber
All Metro Average Boston, MA Cambridge, MA Springfield, MA Worcester, MA
Source: Equifax: CreditTrends; Economy.com
