PRT@LHR 2010, 21-23 September 2010, The Heathrow Academy, London

Masdar City: modelling PRT in a carbon neutral deve lopmentDario Menichetti

Tom van Vuren

Outline

• Introduction

• Characteristics of a carbon neutral development

• What is different from conventional situations?

• Requirements and challenges for modelling• Requirements and challenges for modelling

• Proposed tiered model developed for Masdar City

• PRT modelling components

• Conclusions and Recommendations

Introduction

Peacefulness of an old village

All the activities of a modern city centre

Carbon neutral 21st century city

?

Transport problem formulation

+ =?

Introduction

©© ©©2009, Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) PJSC/Foster+Partners

2009, Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) PJSC/Foster+Partners

2009, Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) PJSC/Foster+Partners

2009, Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) PJSC/Foster+Partners

A. Implementing a transport system in a carbon neutral development is a first with no previous references!

B. Transport models can assist the planning and implem entation and reduce risks!

C. The concept of carbon neutral development and espec ially the evaluation of supporting innovative transport techn ologies such as PRT systems, challenges the conventional modelling approaches!

Masdar City – Abu Dhabi

1. What are the requirements, challenges and perspecti ves for developing a modelling system to assist the plannin g and the implementation of a carbon neutral transport system (which could include PRT)?

2. What are the travel demand and supply characteristi cs to be considered?

3. What are the specific modelling requirements compar ed with more conventional situations?

Options for internal supply

WalkingWalkingWalkingWalking

CyclingCyclingCyclingCyclingLight Rapid Transit (LRT)Light Rapid Transit (LRT)Light Rapid Transit (LRT)Light Rapid Transit (LRT)

Automated People Movers (APM)Automated People Movers (APM)Automated People Movers (APM)Automated People Movers (APM)

Carbon neutral Carbon neutral Carbon neutral Carbon neutral

developmentdevelopmentdevelopmentdevelopment

Characteristics of a carbon neutral development (1)

Automated People Movers (APM)Automated People Movers (APM)Automated People Movers (APM)Automated People Movers (APM)

Electric busesElectric busesElectric busesElectric buses

Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)

Electric carsElectric carsElectric carsElectric cars

Mobile walkwaysMobile walkwaysMobile walkwaysMobile walkways

Characteristics of a carbon neutral development (2)

External access

What is different from conventional situations?

• Transfers from fossil fuelled vehicles are necessary

• Transfer facilities (car parking, pick up/drop off points, stations etc.) need to be considered more carefully

• Travel demand needs to be represented and forecast for all modes, including but not limited to innovative transport technologies such as PRT

• Competition of walking and cycling needs to be

©©©©2009, Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) PJSC/Foster+Partners2009, Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) PJSC/Foster+Partners2009, Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) PJSC/Foster+Partners2009, Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company (Masdar) PJSC/Foster+Partners

• Competition of walking and cycling needs to be represented more accurately

• Travel behaviour, demand patterns, passenger responses cannot be observed or extrapolated from existing situations

• Tried and tested modelling tools are not sufficient and needs to be adapted to the specific requirements or integrated with innovative methods

Model requirements

• Forecast multi-modal travel demand patterns (including PRT) resulting from alternative master-plan and land-use options

• Quantify and summarise the effects of future travel patterns, energy usage and user experience

• Perform spatial analysis and accessibility modelling

• Verify the capacity of the full multimodal infrastructure against forecast usage

• Accurately represent and verify the performances of the transfer and modal interchange facilities (stations, corridors, stairs, car parks, platforms, etc.)

• Assess the impacts of the carbon neutral development on external (road) traffic

• Easily feed into more detailed analyses downstream in the design process with particular focus on all public transport infrastructure

• Represent different technologies and compare the effects of using different PRT typologies, vehicles, stations and network topologies

• Summarise the results with easy to understand performance and sustainability indicators and user-friendly maps accessible to non-experts

Proposed tiered model developed for Masdar City

Abu DhabiAbu DhabiAbu DhabiAbu Dhabi

strategic modelstrategic modelstrategic modelstrategic model

Local area networkLocal area networkLocal area networkLocal area network

and demandand demandand demandand demand

modelmodelmodelmodel

PRTPRTPRTPRTPRTPRTPRTPRT

static assignmentstatic assignmentstatic assignmentstatic assignment

modelmodelmodelmodel

PRT PRT PRT PRT

micro simulationmicro simulationmicro simulationmicro simulation

modelmodelmodelmodel

External roadExternal roadExternal roadExternal road

traffic impactstraffic impactstraffic impactstraffic impacts

analysisanalysisanalysisanalysis

Key model outputs

• The demand for travel generated within the zero-carbon city, the forecast usage of the transport system and its resulting operational requirements

• The demand for travel generated to and from the zero carbon city, its preferred access and egress modes, implications for transfer facilities and effects on the internal system performance

• The impacts of the newly generated demand to and from the zero carbon city on the surrounding transport system

PRT modelling components

Representing innovative transport solutions such as PRT systems challenges the standard modelling practice and the adaptation of involves the employment of innovative modelling methods.

When modelling PRT three major elements need to be estimated:elements need to be estimated:

1. PRT passenger demand

2. PRT station performances in terms of passenger experience

3. PRT vehicle and system performance as a function of demand, vehicle stock and control

The local area network and demand model (1)

Walking

Cycling

Internal Public

Transport

PRT

PRT Walking

Cycling

Walking

Cycling

Internal (carbon neutral Zone)

Des

tinat

ion

Orig

inWalking

CyclingInternal Public

Transport

Walking

Cycling

Internal mode choice

Des

tinat

ion

Direct competition of walking and cycling with Public Transport and PRT

The local area network and demand model (2)

CarCar Park 1Car Park 2

Car Park n………

Taxi

Taxi Bay 1Taxi Bay 2

Taxi Bay n………

Private Bus

Bus Bay 1Bus Bay 2………

Walking

Cycling

Internal Public

Transport

PRT

PRT Walking

Cycling

Walking

Cycling

External Internal (carbon neutral Zone)

………

………

………………

………

………

Carbon neutral zone borderO

rigin

Des

tinat

ion

External-Internalaccess mode choice

Transferpoint choice

Metro

Public Transport

LRT

Bus

BusBus Bay n………

Walking

Cycling

………

………

………

………

Internal Public

Transport

Walking

Cycling

Internal mode choice

Transfers

Orig

in

Des

tinat

ion

The local area network and demand model (3)

CarCarCarCar

LRTLRTLRTLRT

PRTPRTPRTPRT

PedestrianPedestrianPedestrianPedestrian

BicycleBicycleBicycleBicycle

Car ParkCar ParkCar ParkCar Park

LRT StopLRT StopLRT StopLRT Stop

PRT StopPRT StopPRT StopPRT Stop

Carbon Neutral Zone

Multi modalMulti modalMulti modalMulti modal

networknetworknetworknetwork

Key characteristics:• Disaggregated multimodal

representation of all available modes and all the opportunities for transferring between modes

• Distribution uses a gravity model

• Combined mode and route choice using a generalised costs approach

BicycleBicycleBicycleBicycle

Car Parking Car Parking Car Parking Car Parking

FareFareFareFare

TransferTransferTransferTransfer

networknetworknetworknetwork

The disaggregation of the overall trip

into journey elements allows the

application of relative journey time

and cost weights obtained in studies

elsewhere (both absolute and relative).

This is the only reasonable approach in

a situation where validation of the

model against observed behaviour is not

possible .

• Key Outputs– Internal trip generation, distribution and usage of the walk, cycle

and public transport systems

– External distribution of travel demand across interchanges, the impacts for the internal system plus road based traffic volumes, turning volumes at intersections and average traffic delays in the immediate vicinity of the carbon neutral city

– Patronage prediction for each individual transit and PRT stop

– PRT station to station passenger demand

The local area network and demand model (4)

• Key Limitations– Cannot calculate the PRT vehicle traffic operations in a

satisfactory manner

– Cannot provide a robust representation of vehicle traffic and station performance and the correct quantification of the PRT journey experience by travellers

– Some of the PRT journey elements need to be fed into the local network and demand model by more appropriate PRT based assignment and simulation methods

The PRT static assignment model

• Key characteristics:

– Represents average full and empty vehicle flows on links

– Requires less implementation effort than micro-simulation

– Novel technique recently developed by a team of researchers at the University of Bologna (Italy)

• In Masdar City we used it for:

– preliminary and quick prediction of full and empty vehicle flows– preliminary and quick prediction of full and empty vehicle flows

– pre-dimensioning of station and track capacity

– optimising the topology and performance of a PRT network

• Key limitations:

– Cannot represent comprehensively the complexity of PRT operations

– Can only represent average traffic but not peaks

– Cannot provide indicators of station performances

The PRT microsimulation model

• Key characteristics:

– Reproduces in discrete time a system architecture similar to a “real PRT system”

– Allows simulation of different vehicle and control scenarios

– Simulates each individual vehicle in operation and their interactions

– Represents in detail the station operations

– Uses iTS MAIT (Version its-0.51) software developed by MAIT international

• In Masdar City we used it mostly to:• In Masdar City we used it mostly to:

– Identify and resolve potential bottlenecks

– Quantify station level of services

– Verify the capacity of network elements and stations

– Define the optimal vehicle fleet

– Locate empty vehicle depots (buffers)

– Evaluate energy consumption

– Generate inputs for the demand model

Applications

• Evaluation of different strategic master plan options

• Land use and transport integration and accessibility modelling

• Traffic impact study of the development including detailed analysis of external intersections and car parking access performance

• Car parking strategy evaluation

• Analysis of pedestrian and cycling corridors• Analysis of pedestrian and cycling corridors

• Interchange planning

• Pedestrian and cycling safety analysis of street-level interaction with public transport

• PRT network and station location optimisation

• PRT track and station dimensioning, design and verification

• Phasing of the city

Conclusions and Recommendations

• The challenge for a carbon neutral transport system for the city is to balance the availability of only electrically or human powered transport modes with the need to deliver acceptable accessibility to and within the city

• Risks can be minimised by employing transport modelling and simulation technique

• While their use is well-established in more conventional car-based urban environments, the transfer of modelling techniques provides challenges for a carbon-neutral environment

• Tried and tested tools are not sufficient and have been adapted to the specific requirements

• A tiered modelling system has been developed, integrating individual components (considering PRT as a transport mode) that simulate the demand for and performance of each element of the transport system

• Additional and novel modelling techniques have been also employed, such as PRT static assignment and PRT simulation

• Masdar City will be a test bed for the development of commercially viable, sustainable transport solutions, and future simulation tools to support their implementation elsewhere

Peacefulness of an old village

All the activities of a modern city centre

Carbon neutral21st century city

Estimating and Estimating and Estimating and Estimating and understanding the demand behaviourunderstanding the demand behaviourunderstanding the demand behaviourunderstanding the demand behaviour, patterns and , patterns and , patterns and , patterns and characteristics as well as characteristics as well as characteristics as well as characteristics as well as balancing demand to supplybalancing demand to supplybalancing demand to supplybalancing demand to supply (within but (within but (within but (within but also also also also to and from the developmentto and from the developmentto and from the developmentto and from the development) can make the road to carbon neutral cities ) can make the road to carbon neutral cities ) can make the road to carbon neutral cities ) can make the road to carbon neutral cities and and and and integrationintegrationintegrationintegration of innovative transport technologies such as PRT in of innovative transport technologies such as PRT in of innovative transport technologies such as PRT in of innovative transport technologies such as PRT in urban environments shorterurban environments shorterurban environments shorterurban environments shorter

Conclusions and Recommendations

+ =

Masdar City14/09/2010

www.mottmac.com

Dario Menichetti Dario Menichetti Dario Menichetti Dario Menichetti

BSc MSc MCIHTBSc MSc MCIHTBSc MSc MCIHTBSc MSc MCIHT

Senior Transport Planner/ModellerSenior Transport Planner/ModellerSenior Transport Planner/ModellerSenior Transport Planner/Modeller

Mott MacDonaldMott MacDonaldMott MacDonaldMott MacDonald

+971 (0)50 443 7341+971 (0)50 443 7341+971 (0)50 443 7341+971 (0)50 443 7341

dario.menichetti@mottmac.comdario.menichetti@mottmac.comdario.menichetti@mottmac.comdario.menichetti@mottmac.com

Tom Tom Tom Tom van Vurenvan Vurenvan Vurenvan Vuren

MSc PhD TPP MSc PhD TPP MSc PhD TPP MSc PhD TPP

Director Director Director Director –––– Integrated Transport Integrated Transport Integrated Transport Integrated Transport

Division Division Division Division

Mott MacDonaldMott MacDonaldMott MacDonaldMott MacDonald

Visiting Professor Visiting Professor Visiting Professor Visiting Professor ––––The University The University The University The University

of Leedsof Leedsof Leedsof Leeds

+44 (0)121 2374004+44 (0)121 2374004+44 (0)121 2374004+44 (0)121 2374004