Maryland’s Process for Maryland’s Process for Projecting Enrollments Projecting Enrollments in Higher Educationin Higher Education

Michael J. KellerMichael J. Keller

Director of Policy Analysis and Director of Policy Analysis and ResearchResearch

Maryland Higher Education Maryland Higher Education CommissionCommission

The Maryland Higher Education The Maryland Higher Education Commission prepares a set of 10-Commission prepares a set of 10-year projections each year for the year projections each year for the public colleges and universities in public colleges and universities in the State.the State.

Credit enrollments for each two- and four-Credit enrollments for each two- and four-year institution with breakdowns by full- and year institution with breakdowns by full- and part-time undergraduates and, as part-time undergraduates and, as applicable, full- and part-time graduate and applicable, full- and part-time graduate and professional studentsprofessional students

Projected full-time equivalent students Projected full-time equivalent students determined from the headcount by a determined from the headcount by a mathematical formulamathematical formula

Full-time equivalent noncredit continuing Full-time equivalent noncredit continuing education enrollments at community education enrollments at community collegescolleges

Use of the Use of the projections projections

Facilities planningFacilities planning

ArticulationArticulation

Funding prioritiesFunding priorities

Development of growth plan for Development of growth plan for postsecondary education in the postsecondary education in the StateState

Importance of the Importance of the projections projections

The Commission is asked by the The Commission is asked by the Governor’s Budget Office and the Governor’s Budget Office and the General Assembly to do an independent General Assembly to do an independent set of projections to those supplied by set of projections to those supplied by the institutions.the institutions.

The Commission’s projections are The Commission’s projections are accepted by policy makers as the accepted by policy makers as the State’s “official” forecasts of higher State’s “official” forecasts of higher education enrollments.education enrollments.

Enrollment projections Enrollment projections are:are:

one-third science, one-third science, one-third art, one-third art, and one-third politics.and one-third politics.

The Science The Science The Commission employs a “top down” The Commission employs a “top down”

approach in projecting credit enrollments.approach in projecting credit enrollments.

It uses a statistical model to forecast the It uses a statistical model to forecast the number of credit students at all community number of credit students at all community colleges and all public four-year institutions. colleges and all public four-year institutions. These figures, in turn, are distributed among These figures, in turn, are distributed among the campuses in an accompanying process.the campuses in an accompanying process.

There are separate, but similar, methodologies There are separate, but similar, methodologies for projecting the credit enrollments at the for projecting the credit enrollments at the two- and four-year institutionstwo- and four-year institutions

The projections of noncredit community The projections of noncredit community college students are handled with a somewhat college students are handled with a somewhat different approach.different approach.

Assumptions –Assumptions –Community College Community College Projections Projections

Enrollments of Maryland residents can be Enrollments of Maryland residents can be forecasted by matching the historical relationship forecasted by matching the historical relationship between the State’s population and past in-state between the State’s population and past in-state enrollments, then incorporating population enrollments, then incorporating population projections for the State.projections for the State.

The ratio of in-state to out-of-state students in The ratio of in-state to out-of-state students in Maryland will remain relatively constant.Maryland will remain relatively constant.

Tuition increases will have an impact on full- and Tuition increases will have an impact on full- and part-time community college enrollments.part-time community college enrollments.

The number of full-time students will be affected The number of full-time students will be affected by trends in high school graduates.by trends in high school graduates.

The number of part-time students will be impacted The number of part-time students will be impacted by changes in the per-capita disposable income, by changes in the per-capita disposable income, calculated in constant dollars, of Maryland calculated in constant dollars, of Maryland residents.residents.

Assumptions –Assumptions –Public Four-Year Campus Public Four-Year Campus

ProjectionsProjections Enrollments of Maryland residents can be Enrollments of Maryland residents can be

forecasted by matching the historical relationship forecasted by matching the historical relationship between the State’s population and past in-state between the State’s population and past in-state enrollments, then incorporating population enrollments, then incorporating population projections for the State.projections for the State.

The ratio of in-state to out-of-state students in The ratio of in-state to out-of-state students in Maryland will remain relatively constant.Maryland will remain relatively constant.

The number of full-time undergraduates will be The number of full-time undergraduates will be affected by trends in high school graduates and affected by trends in high school graduates and the number of full-time students enrolling at the the number of full-time students enrolling at the State’s community colleges.State’s community colleges.

The number of part-time undergraduates will be The number of part-time undergraduates will be impacted by changes in the disposable per capita impacted by changes in the disposable per capita income, calculated in constant dollars, of income, calculated in constant dollars, of Maryland residents.Maryland residents.

Assumptions –Assumptions –Noncredit Continuing EducationNoncredit Continuing EducationEnrollments at Community Enrollments at Community CollegesColleges

The adult population 20 years of age or older in The adult population 20 years of age or older in a community college’s county or service area is a community college’s county or service area is a key predictor of noncredit continuing a key predictor of noncredit continuing education enrollments.education enrollments.

Continuing education enrollments can be Continuing education enrollments can be forecasted by matching the historical forecasted by matching the historical relationship between noncredit FTE relationship between noncredit FTE enrollments at each college and the adult enrollments at each college and the adult population in the above age group in each population in the above age group in each college’s respective county or service area to college’s respective county or service area to the population projections in each location.the population projections in each location.

A linear regression analysis A linear regression analysis encompassing these assumptions encompassing these assumptions was used to produce the projections. was used to produce the projections.

How Well Have We How Well Have We Done Recently ?Done Recently ?

Enrollment Category

2004 Projections

2004 Actual

Accuracy Rate

Community Colleges

All Credit Students

120,096 118,947 99.0%

Non-Credit FTE 21,921 21,024 95.9%

4-Year Campuses

All Undergraduates

100,725 101,769 99.0%

All Grad/Prof 36,097 35,864 99.4%

All Students 136,822 137,633 99.4%

All Public Campuses

All Undergraduates

220,821 220,716 99.97%

All Credit Students

256,918 256,580 99.9%

How Well Have We How Well Have We Done Over the Long Done Over the Long Term?Term?

Enrollment Category

1996 Projections

2004 Actual

Accuracy Rate

Community Colleges

All Students 122,615 118,947 97.0%

4-Year Campuses

All Undergraduates

91,379 101,769 89.8%

All Grad/Prof 31,871 35,864 88.9%

All Students 125,250 137,633 91.0%

All Public Campuses

All Undergraduates

215,994 220,716 97.9%

All Credit Students

247,865 256,580 96.6%

Methods for Methods for Distribution of Credit Distribution of Credit Enrollments Among Enrollments Among InstitutionsInstitutions

Factor

Community Colleges

4 –Year Campuses

Institution-Provided Projections

X

Recent Market Share X X

Three-Year Enrollment Growth

X X

Projected Growth in County Population

X

For Copies of the LatestFor Copies of the Latest

Enrollment Projections ReportEnrollment Projections Report

or More Information:or More Information:

www.mhec.state.md.uswww.mhec.state.md.us

mkeller@mhec.state.md.usmkeller@mhec.state.md.us