Maryland Government Financial Officers Association Daraius ... · Maryland Government Financial Officers Association. Daraius Irani, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies

Maryland Government Financial Officers AssociationDaraius Irani, Ph.D.

Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies InstituteVP, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

Towson University

June 21, 2019

-$1,000

$4,000

$9,000

$14,000

$19,000

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Billi

ons o

f Cha

ined

201

2 Do

llars

Personal consumption expenditures Gross private domestic investmentNet exports of goods and services Government consumption expenditures and gross investment

2019Q1: $18.9 trillion,

2.2 percent

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product2006Q1-2019Q1, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted

Sources: BEA, National Bureau for Economic Research

106

92

120

73

1204.9%

4.2%

3.5%

2.7%

2.2%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1961Q1-1969Q4 1982Q4-1990Q3 1991Q1-2001Q1 2001Q4-2007Q4 2009Q2-present

Aver

age

Gro

wth

Mon

ths o

f Rec

over

yLength and Average GDP Growth of the Five

Longest Post-WWII Expansions

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: TravelingDad.com

-7.0%

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

7.0%

$9,000

$9,500

$10,000

$10,500

$11,000

$11,500

$12,000

$12,500

$13,000

I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Percent Change from Preceding Period

Billi

ons o

f Cha

ined

201

2 Do

llars

Personal consumption expenditures Percent change from preceding period

Source: BEA

2019Q1: $13.1 trillion, 1.3 percent

U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures2006Q1-2019Q1, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars


40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cons

umer

Sen

timen

t Ind

exConsumer Sentiment Index

Jan. 2006 - Apr. 2019

Consumer Sentiment Index

Nov. 2008: 55.3

Apr. 2019: 97.2

Source: FRED© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

Sources: FRED, U.S. Census

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

$60,000

$65,000

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Inco

me

in 2

017

Adju

sted

Dol

lars

2017: $61,372

Real Median Household Income in the U.S. 2017 Adjusted Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted


Sources: U.S. Census

Mean Real U.S. Household Income by Quintile 2017 Adjusted Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted


$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Inco

me

in 2

017

Adju

sted

Dol

lars

Lowest Fifth Second Fifth Third Fifth Fourth Fifth Highest Fifth Top Five Percent

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Perc

enta

ge

Unemployment Underemployment

U.S. Unemployment and UnderemploymentJan. 2006-May 2019


US Unemployment Level vs Job OpeningsDec. 2000 – Apr. 2019

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Thou

sand

s of P

erso

ns/J

obs

Unemployed Persons Job Openings

Source: BLS

1948: 34.9%

Aug 2017: 75.2%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

68.0%

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Part

icip

atio

n Ra

te

Actual Rate Pre-recession Rate

Missing workers, 2019: 5.8

million

U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate1997-2019 Annual Averages


2018-2019: The Retail Apocalypse Continues

Source: Company Websites© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

Source: Chris Yang© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

$3,200

$3,400

I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182019

Perc

ent C

hang

e fr

om P

rece

ding

Per

iod

Billi

ons o

f Cha

ined

201

2 Do

llars

U.S. Gross Private Domestic Investment2006Q1-2019Q1, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars

Gross private domestic investment Percent change from preceding period

Source: BEA

2019Q1: $3.5 trillion;4.3 percent


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Num

ber o

f Hou

sing

Sta

rts,

in th

ousa

nds

U.S. Privately-Owned Housing StartsSeasonally Adjusted, Units in Thousands, Jan. 1981- Apr. 2019

Current (April 2019) level

Sources: FRED, U.S. Census Bureau© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

Source: CP America’s Roller Coast© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

$2,850

$2,900

$2,950

$3,000

$3,050

$3,100

$3,150

$3,200

$3,250

$3,300

$3,350

$3,400

I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Perc

ent c

hang

e fr

om p

rece

ding

per

iod

Billi

ons o

f Cha

ined

201

2 Do

llars

U.S. Government Spending2006Q1-2019Q1, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars

Government consumption expenditures and gross investment Percent change from preceding period

Source: BEA

2019Q1: $3.2 trillion,2.5 percent


United States Federal DeficitFY 2002-FY 2018, Millions of Dollars

Source: FRED

$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs


Source: Shutterstock© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

-$1,000

-$900

-$800

-$700

-$600

-$500

-$400

-$300

-$200

-$100

$0I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Perc

ent C

hang

e fr

om P

rece

ding

Per

iod

in E

xpor

ts o

r Im

port

s

Billi

ons o

f Cha

ined

201

2 Do

llars

Net exports of goods and services Percent change from preceding period in Exports

Percent change from preceding period in Imports

Source: BEA

2019Q1:-$904 billion

U.S. Net Exports2006Q1-2019Q1, Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars


Sources: Kogod School of Business, USA Today

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ford F150 Chevy Silverado RAM 1500 Toyota Camry Toyota Corolla

Kogo

dIn

dex

2013 2018

“Made in America” Auto Index, 2013 vs 2018Five Most Popular Cars in United States


Source: MD Coast Dispatch© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

$290,000

$300,000

$310,000

$320,000

$330,000

$340,000

$350,000

$360,000

$370,000

$380,000

I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e fr

om P

rece

ding

Per

iod

Mill

ions

of C

hain

ed 2

012

Dolla

rsMaryland Real Gross State ProductMillions of Chained 2012 Dollars, 2006Q1-2018Q4

MD RGSP Annual Percent Change from Preceding PeriodSource: BEA

2018Q4: $369 billion, 1.2 percent


Sources: BLS, FRED

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

U.S. Unemployment MD Unemployment

U.S. vs MD UnemploymentJan. 2006-Apr. 2019


Source: BLS

Unemployment Rate for Counties in Central MarylandAnnual Average, 2018

5.7%

4.1%

3.6%

3.3%

3.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Baltimore City

Baltimore County

Harford

Anne Arundel

Howard

Unemployment Rate


Source: BLS

27.3

43.5

47.3

52.3

55.9

85.0

94.4

95.4

98.1

117.5

142.7

163.4

175.8

239.2

255.5

281.8

386.6

506.2

0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Non-Durable Goods

Durable Goods

Wholesale Trade

Educational Services

Finance and Insurance

Transportation and Utilities

Other Services

Financial Activities

Mining, Logging, and Construction

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

Accommodation and Food Services

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Retail Trade

Health Care and Social Assistance

Government

Thousands of Jobs

Maryland Employment by SectorIn thousands, April 2019


Source: Maryland Workforce Exchange

146190

5371,7582,0052,1312,3152,517

2,8402,877

3,5453,8843,915

4,3745,309

6,0787,908

9,3549,607

11,46116,082

20,49522,184

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000

MilitaryFarming, Fishing, and Forestry

Legal OccupationsConstruction and Extraction

Building & Grounds Cleaning & MaintenancePersonal Care and Service

Protective ServiceLife, Physical, and Social ScienceEducation, Training, and LibraryCommunity and Social Services

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and MediaProduction Occupations

Healthcare Support OccupationsInstallation, Maintenance, and Repair

Food Preparation and ServingTransportation and Material Moving

Business and Financial OperationsSales and Related

Architecture and EngineeringOffice and Administrative Support

Management OccupationsHealthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

Job Openings

Current Job Openings by Occupation Group Maryland, May 2019


Source: Phoenix Marketing International

Millionaires per CapitaTop Ten States, 2018

7.66%

7.71%

7.78%

7.98%

8.48%

8.60%

8.85%

8.89%

8.94%

8.95%

Virginia

Alaska

California

New Hampshire

Hawaii

Massachusetts

Maryland

Connecticut

District of Columbia

New Jersey


Sources: PwC Moneytree, U.S. Small Business Administration

Access to Capital for Small Businesses in Maryland


• Small Loans:• 106,161 loans under $100,000 were issued by

Maryland lenders in 2016.• These loans totaled $1.5 billion.

• Venture Capital:• Maryland consistently falls in the top 10 states for

amount of venture capital funding. • In the first quarter of 2019, there were 18 VC deals

in Maryland totaling $77 million.

Source: QCEW

Number of Establishments in Maryland With Fewer Than 100 Employees

2008-2018


150,000

152,000

154,000

156,000

158,000

160,000

162,000

164,000

166,000

168,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Num

ber o

f Est

ablis

hmen

ts

By Number of Employees:1 to 4: 102,127

5 to 9: 25,79210 to 19: 18,57920 to 49: 13,396

50 to 99: 4,655

Source: BLS – Business Employment Dynamics

Difference In Establishment Births vs Establishment DeathsMaryland, 2008 Q1 to 2017 Q4

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Esta

blis

hmen

t Birt

hs –

Esta

blis

hmen

t Dea

ths


-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Empl

oym

ent G

aine

d –

Empl

oym

ent L

ost

Difference In Employment Gained and Lost from Establishment Births and Deaths

Maryland, 2008 Q1 to 2017 Q4

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: BLS – Business Employment Dynamics

© Towson University, Division of Innovation and Applied Research Source: Lincolnshire Today

© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research Source: Sandra Lechner

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 20212,500,000

2,600,000

2,700,000

2,800,000

2,900,000

3,000,000

3,100,000

3,200,000

3,300,000

Perc

ent C

hang

e

Priv

ate

Non

farm

Em

ploy

men

t

Forecasted Private Nonfarm EmploymentMaryland, 2010-2021

Private Nonfarm Employment Percent Change

Source: REMI PI+, RESI© Towson University, Division of Strategic Partnerships and Applied Research

Forecasted Total New Job Openings in Maryland by RegionAnnual Average, 2019-2021

Source: RESI

7,375

67,591

90,541

12,648

8,371


Forecasted Total Job Growth in Maryland by RegionAnnual Average, 2019-2021

Source: RESI

312

5,284

5,603

469

569


Source: RESI

58,039

-2,803

-18,526

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2019 2020 2021

Job

Gro

wth

Forecasted Job Growth By Year2019-2021


-1,690-1,187

-315-167

-82-15

243198158

289442482

9921,1441,223

1,4832,267

3,4963,707

-2,500 -1,500 -500 500 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500

Government

Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Information

Utilities

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting

Mining

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Accommodation and Food Services

Retail Trade

Transportation and Warehousing

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Finance and Insurance

Educational Services; Private

Other Services, except Public Administration

Construction

Administrative and Waste Management Services

Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Average Annual Change in Number of Jobs

Source: RESI

Forecasted Employment Growth by Sector2019-2021 Annual Average, Maryland


-1,852-532

-1048496112151210225

344438

558608

1,0431,0811,1191,1371,1551,1881,262

1,4942,419

-2,500 -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Office and Administrative SupportProduction

Farming, Fishing, and ForestryLife, Physical, and Social Science

Protective ServiceArchitecture and Engineering

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and MediaSales and Related

Community and Social ServiceLegal

Installation, Maintenance, and RepairFood Preparation and Serving Related

Transportation and Material MovingConstruction and Extraction

Healthcare Practitioners and TechnicalBuilding and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance

ManagementHealthcare Support

Education, Training, and LibraryBusiness and Financial Operations

Computer and MathematicalPersonal Care and Service

Average Annual Change in Number of JobsSource: RESI

Forecasted Employment Growth By Occupation Group2019-2021 Annual Average, Maryland


Source: RESI

Forecasted Total Job Growth by ZoneAverage, 2019-2021

833

2,990

2,611

4,353

1,451

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1 2 3 4 5

Aver

age

Job

Gro

wth

Job ZoneLittle or No Preparation Extensive Preparation


THANK YOULearn More About RESI’s

Projects and Services

Towson.edu/RESI

@RESIofTU

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Documents

Maryland Government Financial Officers Association Daraius ... · Maryland Government Financial Officers Association. Daraius Irani, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Regional Economic Studies