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Microsimulation Conference 2007
The “LifeCourse” Model, a Competing Risk Cohort Microsimulation Model: Source
Code and Basic Concepts of the Generic Microsimulation Programming Language
Modgen
Martin Spielauer
LifeCourse Model: Background & Aims
- Developed at Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research alongside a study on fertility decline in Bulgaria and Russia
- It was also developed and used as a teaching tool for the European Doctoral School for Demography
- LifeCourse is a very simple continuous time cohort MSM- LifeCourse is programmed in Modgen, a generic MS
language developed at Statistics Canada: efficient (few pages), readable (C++), modular, user-friendly GUI
- LifeCourse serves as template for other models; e.g. it was recently extended and adapted for the study of the effect of union dissolution on fertility in France (Vienna Institute for Demography, Stockholm University)
LifeCourse Step by Step
- The statistical model- The Modgen/C++ programming environment- Programming:
- Simulation Engine- Parameter handling- Events- Table Output
- The resulting Modgen Application LifeCourse- User Interface- Graphical display of individual histories
The Statistical Model
- 6 Piecewise constant hazard regression models for first and second births, first and second union formations, and first and second union dissolutions.
- Simple (easy to interpret) models including interactions with calendar time to study changes over time.
- E.g. Model for First Births:
The Modgen programming environment
- Integrated into MS Visual Studio NET C++: Modgen code translated into C++ before being compiled
- Efficient programming of MSM applications:- Event handling (event queue)- Handling of input parameters and output tables of any
dimension- Efficient multilingual cross-referenced model
documentation and input/output labeling- Modgen graphical user-interface- All output automatically includes information on Monte
Carlo variability- Graphical visualization of individual life-courses by
BioBrowser tool
Conclusion
- I hope that „LifeCourse“ and its technical documentation is useful also for others as - Information resource introducing into Modgen- Model template for first steps into MSM development using
Modgen
- Modgen:- Mostly known in connection with extremely complex
models (Lifepaths, POHEM), the strengths of Modgen unfold also for very simple models
- NOTE: this presentation only covered a small fraction of the concepts and strengths of Modgen
