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Martinique, March 27-29, 2012
1
Dr. José RubieraDirector National Forecast CenterInstitute of Meteorology (INSMET),
CUBA
International Seminar “Caribbean Cluster on Natural Risks and Risks from the Sea¨
Hurricane Early Warnings Hurricane Early Warnings and Warnings: A Cuban and Warnings: A Cuban
Experience.Experience.
2
CUBACUBACUBACUBA
3
Tropical Cyclones are one of the greatest Tropical Cyclones are one of the greatest risk for all Caribbean Countriesrisk for all Caribbean Countries
Tropical Cyclones are one of the greatest Tropical Cyclones are one of the greatest risk for all Caribbean Countriesrisk for all Caribbean Countries
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Several Principles in the Cuban EWSSeveral Principles in the Cuban EWS
• Legal Basis
• Mission, Objectives and Functions clearly defined for each actor.
• All steps in TC Disaster Management are follow.
• Full coordination among main actors
• A complete observing system for the country.
• Operational manuals regulates all actions in the NFC. A QMS will be in force since Hurricane Season 2012
• The use of Media by specialists, with graphics and plain, simple words so that everybody understand the information.
There is a wide legal basis that There is a wide legal basis that regulates the functioning of regulates the functioning of
EWSEWS Law No. 75 of National Defense Decree-law No. 170 on the Civil Defense
system
Guideline No. 1 of the Vice President of the National Defense Council
Law No. 81 / 97 on the Environment
Resolution 106 /99 of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment
Ordinance Law No. 279 of 2007 "On General Principles, Organization, Preparation and Provisions of the Hydrometeorological System of Cuba for Exceptional Situations
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1. The National Forecast Center of INSMET and their territorial branches in charge of monitoring and forecasting Tropical Cyclones
2. Authorities at the different levels of Government, implementing protection measures, advised by officials and experts of the Civil Defense.
3. The Media and social organizations at National to local levels help disseminate information.
4. The citizens, who are well organized, educated and prepared.
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To constantly monitor weather To issue timely Early Warnings to the
Government, the Civil Defense, and the people on any hazardous weather system that could affect any part of the Country.
To transmit Early Warnings and warnings through the Media, mainly TV and radio, updating the information frequently.
To participate in awareness and educational activities
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PREVENTIÓNPREVENTIÓN
PREPARATIONPREPARATION
RESPONSERESPONSE
RECOVERYRECOVERY
RISK ASSESMENT AND PLANNINGRISK ASSESMENT AND PLANNING
PUBLIC EDUCATIONPUBLIC EDUCATION
FORECASTS, EARLY WARNING,WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
ACTIONS TO PROTECT PEOPLE
FORECASTS, EARLY WARNING,WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
ACTIONS TO PROTECT PEOPLE
RESTABLISH BASIC SERVICESFORECASTS AND WARNINGS
FOR THE AFFECTED AREA
RESTABLISH BASIC SERVICESFORECASTS AND WARNINGS
FOR THE AFFECTED AREA
PREVENTIONAND
MITIGATION
PREVENTIONAND
MITIGATION
CUBA HAS IMPLEMENTED ALL STEPS CUBA HAS IMPLEMENTED ALL STEPS IN TC DISASTER MANAGEMENTIN TC DISASTER MANAGEMENT
CUBA HAS IMPLEMENTED ALL STEPS CUBA HAS IMPLEMENTED ALL STEPS IN TC DISASTER MANAGEMENTIN TC DISASTER MANAGEMENT
8METEOROLOGIST OF THE NFC ARE INVOLVED IN ALL METEOROLOGIST OF THE NFC ARE INVOLVED IN ALL
THESE STEPSTHESE STEPSMETEOROLOGIST OF THE NFC ARE INVOLVED IN ALL METEOROLOGIST OF THE NFC ARE INVOLVED IN ALL
THESE STEPSTHESE STEPS
CUBA
NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER (NFC)
CIVIL DEFENSE THE MEDIA
TO FACE HURRICANE´S THREATSTO FACE HURRICANE´S THREATSTO FACE HURRICANE´S THREATSTO FACE HURRICANE´S THREATS
MEDIA
CITIZENSCITIZENS
NATIONAL FORECASTCENTER
CIVIL DEFENSE/GOVERNMENT
MEDIA
The National Forecast Centre issues meteorological warnings on tropical cyclone in a simple way, with clear, concise and
comprehensible words for everybody
The National Civil Defense issues a warning note and advises the population at risk, from National to local levels, on the protection
measures they must take
THERE EXISTS A STRONG PARTNERSHIP THERE EXISTS A STRONG PARTNERSHIP AMONG THE NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER, AMONG THE NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER,
THE CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIATHE CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIA
THERE EXISTS A STRONG PARTNERSHIP THERE EXISTS A STRONG PARTNERSHIP AMONG THE NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER, AMONG THE NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER,
THE CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIATHE CIVIL DEFENSE AND THE MEDIA
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National TV and Radio Broadcast
the Warnings “Live” (with remote
units) from the NFC and the CD
THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IS WELL PREPAREDSERVICE IS WELL PREPARED
THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IS WELL PREPAREDSERVICE IS WELL PREPARED
1 National Forecast Centre
15 Provincial Forecast Departments
68 Meteorological Stations
8 Meteorological Radars
2 Meteorological Satellite Ground Stations
THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THE HUMAN RESOURCES
THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IS THE HUMAN RESOURCES
METEOROLOGICAL STATIONSMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONSMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONSMETEOROLOGICAL STATIONS
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68 MWS + 60 New AWS68 MWS + 60 New AWS
8 Meteorological Radars covers the entire Country8 Meteorological Radars covers the entire Country
WEATHER RADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBAWEATHER RADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBAWEATHER RADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBAWEATHER RADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBA
RADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBARADAR NETWORK COVERAGE IN CUBA
Range in each Radar: Qualitatively: 450 - 500 km.Quantitatively: 150 km.
RADARS PERMANENTLY MONITOR WEATHERRADARS PERMANENTLY MONITOR WEATHERRADARS PERMANENTLY MONITOR WEATHERRADARS PERMANENTLY MONITOR WEATHER
DATA INPUTDATA INPUT ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODELS
ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MODELS
ISSUANCE OF FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS
ISSUANCE OF FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS
DIFUSISION OF
FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS
DIFUSISION OF
FORECASTS AND
WARNINGS
RESPONSE ACTIONS BY
GOVERNMENT, CIVIL DEFENSE AND CITIZENS
RESPONSE ACTIONS BY
GOVERNMENT, CIVIL DEFENSE AND CITIZENS
SATELILITES
RADARS
WEATHER STATIONS, SOUNDINGS, SHIPS, BUOYS, AIRCRAFS
FORECASTERS
TV
RADIO
TELF - FAX
INTERNET
NUMERICAL MODELS
NATIONAL NATIONAL FORECAST FORECAST
CENTERCENTER
4 daily Weather ReportsIn the main National TV and radio networks,
and to the World by satellite through Cubavision International
Weather information is followed every evening by a little over 6 millions Cubans. In cases of Hurricanes this figure greatly increaseWeather information is followed every evening by a little over 6
millions Cubans. In cases of Hurricanes this figure greatly increase
6 weather presenters, all of them professionals of the National Forecast Center
(3 Ph.D., 1 MSc and 2 meteorologists with university level)
6 weather presenters, all of them professionals of the National Forecast Center
(3 Ph.D., 1 MSc and 2 meteorologists with university level)
TRACK AND TRACK AND EXPECTED EXPECTED
WIND FIELDWIND FIELD
AREAS AREAS WITH WITH
INTENSE INTENSE AND HEAVY AND HEAVY RAINFALLRAINFALL
STORM STORM SURGE SURGE
FORECASTFORECAST
ALL HURRICANE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE ALL HURRICANE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE ADRESSED IN DETAIL AND FORECAST ADRESSED IN DETAIL AND FORECAST LIMITATIONS ARE EXPLAINED TO THE LIMITATIONS ARE EXPLAINED TO THE
PUBLIC IN PLAIN WORDSPUBLIC IN PLAIN WORDS
ALL HURRICANE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE ALL HURRICANE EXPECTED IMPACTS ARE ADRESSED IN DETAIL AND FORECAST ADRESSED IN DETAIL AND FORECAST LIMITATIONS ARE EXPLAINED TO THE LIMITATIONS ARE EXPLAINED TO THE
PUBLIC IN PLAIN WORDSPUBLIC IN PLAIN WORDS
rrrr
rrrr
http://www.insmet.cuhttp://www.insmet.cu
NATIONAL FORECAST CENTER WEB SITENATIONAL FORECAST CENTER WEB SITENATIONAL FORECAST CENTER WEB SITENATIONAL FORECAST CENTER WEB SITE
Free Weather Phone Service +53 7 866 6060
Free Weather Phone Service +53 7 866 6060
1. General Weather Report
2. Watches and Warnings
3. Weather Forecast for Cuba
4. Weather Forecast for Havana City
5. Weather forecast for Havana Province
6. Marine Forecast for Fishermen
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DIAL:
WEATHER PHONE FREE SERVICEWEATHER PHONE FREE SERVICE
WARNINGS
+ CONFIDENCE+ CONFIDENCE
METEOROLOGY
CIVIL DEFENSE
PEOPLE´SACTION
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LIST OF TROPICAL STORMS LIST OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES THAT AND HURRICANES THAT
HAVE AFFECTED CUBA SINCE HAVE AFFECTED CUBA SINCE 19961996
LIST OF TROPICAL STORMS LIST OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES THAT AND HURRICANES THAT
HAVE AFFECTED CUBA SINCE HAVE AFFECTED CUBA SINCE 19961996
LEYEND:LEYEND:
TROPICAL STORM
MINOS HURRICANE (Cat 1 and 2)
MAJOR HURRICANE (Cat 3, 4 or 5)
NAME YEAR CATEGORY DEATHS
Lili 1996 H2 0
Georges 1998 H1 6
Irene 1999 TT 2
Michelle 2001 H4 5
Isidore 2002 H1 0
Lili 2002 H2 1
Charley 2004 H3 4
Ivan 2004 H5 0
Dennis 2005 H4 16
Alberto 2006 TT 0
Ernesto 2006 TT 0
Noel 2007 TT 0
Fay 2008 TT 0
Hanna (Indir.) 2008 TT 0
Gustav 2008 H4 0
Ike 2008 H3 7
Paloma 2008 H4 0 23
ECONOMIC DAMAGES HAVE BEEN LARGE
2008
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25
COUNTRCOUNTRYY
MajorMajorHurricanHurrican
eses
ResidentResidents at Risk s at Risk (Millions(Millions
))
Number Number of of
DeathsDeaths
Death/ Death/ Million Million
ResidentResidentss
USA 9 35.7 1597 44.7344.73
CUBA 8 11.5 32 2.782.78
EFFECTIVENESS OF CUBAN EWS IN HURRICANESEFFECTIVENESS OF CUBAN EWS IN HURRICANES
RESIDENTS AT RISKRESIDENTS AT RISK
35.7 M35.7 M
11.5 M11.5 M
Sources: NHC (US), INSMET (Cuba)
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1. Cuba has an Early Warning System for Tropical Cyclones that covers all the legal, structural, institutional and public aspects.
2. The strong partnership and interaction among the National Forecast Center, the Civil Defense, the Media and the action of the people is a cornerstone of this system.
3. As a result of it, casualties in hurricanes are a minimum and the smallest amount recorded in the Americas, despite the intense tropical cyclone activity in the area since 1995.
CONCLUSIONCONCLUSIONSSCONCLUSIONCONCLUSIONSS
INSMET, CUBAINSMET, CUBA
Dr. José RubieraDirector National Forecast Center
Instituto de Meteorología (INSMET)Havana, CUBA.
Dr. José RubieraDirector National Forecast Center
Instituto de Meteorología (INSMET)Havana, CUBA.
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Questions? Comments?Questions? Comments?