Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

GEMS RGGlobal reactive gases

monitoring and forecast subproject

Lead: Guy Brasseur, MPI Hamburg

Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

Image from FourmilabEarth Viewer

„... Four times daily three-dimensional global distributions with a horizontal resolution of 50km“

„providing initial and boundary conditions for regional air quality models“

„modes and magnitudes of intercontinental pollution transport“

„magnitude and location of STE ozone transport“

Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

Prediction vs. Monitoring

Forecast:• daily• seasonalExtreme events vs. accumulated exposure

Monitoring:• Policy evaluation• Climate ChangeAccuracy and stability

Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

Air pollution is global!Smoke from fires in Siberiaclearly visible on satellite image.Once around the world in 10 days!

NAAPS smoke prediction

A. Stohl, CO tracer prediction

Meteosat visible image

27.5.2003

Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

Variability ofSurface Ozone Concentrations

(Monitoring needs long-term perspective)

Emissions(Fossil fuel 1995-1990)

Meteorology(May 1993 – May

1997)

Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

Sub project elements

• Data assimilation (UARS, AIRS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, GOMOS, SEVIRI, OMI, TES) – whole atmosphere columns, tropospheric columns, OT/LS layers

• CTM simulations (MOZART, ARPEGE, TM5)

• Integration/Validation• Provision of boundary conditions

Contribution of KNMI to Reactive Gases (1)

• Experience with ozone data assimilation at KNMI - Operational ozone assimilation (since 2000) - Ozone and UV forecasting - Reanalysis - 7 years GOME data set - Radiance assimilation

• Improved ozone retrievals for UV-Vis spectrometers - GOME - SCIAMACHY - OMI - GOME 2 (25 y) - Column, profile; nadir, limb

Contribution of KNMI to Reactive Gases (2)

• Near-real-time delivery of ozone data - GOME (SCIAMACHY ?) - OMI (launch 2004, follow-up of TOMS)

- High resolution - 13*24 km- Global coverage in 1 day

• Minor trace-gas retrievals from UV-Vis - Tropospheric (stratospheric) NO2:

Observation operator, detailed error estimatesOMI - high resolution

Contribution of KNMI to Reactive Gases (3)

• Dutch TM5 CTM with regional zoom capability - Use of ECMWF meteorological fields to drive CTM - Tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry - Chemistry parametrizations (ozone, methane) - Experience with couplers (PRISM project)

Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

The MOZART-2 Chemistry Transport Model

• State-of-the-art CTM including 65 chemical species and ~170 reactions

• Online version coupled to ECHAM GCM almost ready

• Soon full coupling to multi-modal aerosol scheme

• „Whole atmosphere“ (0-250 km) version available

Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

Chemical Weather with MOZART

• Script chain in place to perform monthly run almost automatically

• Run from April 2000 – September 2003 available

• Postprocessing and web interface need to be developed

• Validation in progress

Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

Time Evolution of Vertical O3 Profiles over Lindenberg, Germany,

Sep. 2002

Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

Time Evolution of Vertical CO Profiles over Lindenberg, Germany,

Sep. 2002

Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

Freiburg

Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

Niederzier

Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

Issues

• Near realtime emission data (in particular biomass burning)

• Vertical distribution of assimilated columns• Interference of multi-species column

assimilation on chemistry (thus forecasts)• What boundary conditions are required by

RegAQ?• Validation?• Consistency between RG and aerosols (to

what degree and when?)