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Laitevalmistaja ja Energiamurros Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 22.10.2015

Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

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Page 1: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

Laitevalmistaja ja Energiamurros

Markus Alholm

Energiapäivä 2015

22.10.2015

Page 2: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 2

Alstom Group Overview

4 Sectors; Total sales 2013/14: € 20.3 billion

Transport

H. Poupart-Lafarge

€ 5.5 billion sales*

Equipment & Services for

*Source: Annual Results 2013/2014 Fiscal year ended 31 Mar 2014

Thermal Power

P. Cochet

Grid

G. Poux-Guillaume

€ 3.8 billion* sales

Renewable Power

J. Pécresse

€ 9.2 billion sales* 38’000 employees

€ 1.8 billion sales*

88’800 employees; present in ~100 countries

Page 3: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 3

Technologies Adapted to All Energy Sources

Gas Coal

Hydro,Storage,Ocean Nuclear (turbine island) Wind on and offshore

Oil

Solar Geothermal Biomass

Page 4: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 4

Alstom in Finland Presence

400 employees in four Business Units

• Power: Delivers power generation equipment & systems and provides maintenance & installation services for the industry and power plants

• Transport: Implementation and service of trains incl. spare part sales

• Grid: Sales & marketing of power transmission solutions plus engineering and manufacturing of products and systems for reactive power compensation and harmonic filtering

Page 5: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 5

Alstom in Finland Power & Grid References

Nuclear turbines (TVO OL 1&2)

Grid (Fingrid Kangasala)

Hydro (UPM Harjavalta)

Thermal Power (Oulu Energy Toppila)

Wind (Tuulisaimaa Muukko &

Vartinoja)

Environmental systems (Kotka Energy & Ekokem)

Page 6: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 6

The European framework

What are our targets in relation to 1990?

2007: « 20/20/20 » by 2020

2014: GHG reduction 40% by 2030

How does our mental path look like?

Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015?

Industrial Competitiveness is crucial to maintain our precious wellfare society.

80% of Finnish export income comes from Industry but we de-industrialize.

Electricity price OPTIMIZATION is key - 25€/MWh not sustainable due to higher production costs.

Page 7: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 7

• Lignite 40-50 €/MWh

• Coal 60-80

• Gas 75-90

• Wind on-s 45

• Wind off-s 120

• Solar 80-140

• Biogas 135-250

• Nuclear 50

• Price volatility plays an increasingly important role

Source: Rough estimates, without taking into account operating rate.

Electricity production costs are above market prices and 2020 futures

Page 8: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 8

What does the change cost and can we afford it?

Page 9: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 9

What is needed to deter a serious power shortage:

1. Technology jump in production of electricity

2. Affordable storage technologies for electricity

3. Subsidize everything or nationalize utilities

Responsible CEO:s invest only if the investment has a positive NPV

Page 10: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 10

How should technology suppliers act?

• The political risk is big as we do not know which technologies are subsidized and which punished e.g. CO2 neutral nuclear – good or bad – “clean-tech” or not?

• Where to target R&D investments

• What is a “bridging technology” – some “bridges” look more like “roads.”

(presently >70 nuclear reactors are under construction. Mainly China, Russia and India)

Page 11: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 11

Alstom has invested €700 million/a in R&D

• Lower Environmental Footprint

• Reduce Cost of Electricity

• Increasing Flexibility & Reliability

To reach:

Page 12: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 12

Alstom is not the core – Our customers are

• 5 years ago investments in domestic fuel usage e.g. Wood and Peat was supported as nationally important whereafter a tax on peat was implied

• A wind fall tax for nuclear and hydro was planned and then dropped (TVO 2M€/a, Fortum?)

• We are now waiting until 2017 for a new renewable subsidy system

Where should we invest our R&D and what should we suggest our customers to invest in?

What happens with companies concentrating on one technology and are operational in a limited geographical area? Changes in national regulations can kill them. Do you dare to buy from them ”12 year o&m contracts”?

Alstom has muscles to face different political scenarios and create solutions with both low emissions, high efficiency and adequate competitive price:

Page 13: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 13

Biomass: Fuel Flexibility

Drax Coal-fired Power

Station

INCREASING FLEXIBILITY

& RELIABILITY

REDUCING COST OF

ELECTRICITY

LOWERING ENVIRONMENTAL

FOOTPRINT

-2 M tonnes of CO2

1.5 M tonnes of biomass used annually

10% of its output produced by biomass

co-firing

Page 14: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 14

Onshore wind:

ECO-100 and

POWEROF3TM

INCREASING FLEXIBILITY

& RELIABILITY

REDUCING COST OF

ELECTRICITY

LOWERING ENVIRONMENTAL

FOOTPRINT

+25% electricity with fewer turbines on same

plot of land (compared to 1.5-2MW

turbines)

>97% availability of ECO 100 platform to date

+20% capacity factor using POWEROF3TM

Page 15: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 15

Flexibility & Reliability Solar Hybrids

Highest operational flexibility

Dispatchable electricity without need for storage

Proven Utility scale solution

Most competitive solar solution

Efficiency over 80%

The first proven Integrated Solar Combined-Cycle

The first Tower based utility scale ISCC

In partnership with

Page 16: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 16

Hydro: Pumped-Storage

Power Plant

INCREASING FLEXIBILITY

& RELIABILITY

REDUCING COST OF

ELECTRICITY

LOWERING ENVIRONMENTAL

FOOTPRINT

0 oil and grease thanks to hydrostatic

lubrication

Up to 33% of rated power for increased

partial load operation range

±80% global cycle efficiency

Page 17: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 17

Tidal Power

Alstom provides you with leading tidal stream technologies

Efficient, cost-effective and easy to maintain.

Page 18: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 18

Flexibility & Reliability Battery Storage

MaxSine e-storage

Page 19: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 19

Flexibility & Reliability HVDC and Smart Grids

Long distance renewable energy

transport to load centers

Back-to-back grid inter-connection

Flexibility for integrated multi-

terminal power networks

Maintaining grid reliability and

resiliency

Integration of future electric

transport systems

Integration of intermittent

renewable energy

H400 Quadrivalve Konti-Skan Pole 1

Ecosystem for a smart-grid

Page 20: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 20

There is a lot of potential to be tapped a lot to be bought and thus a lot to be sold

IEA estimates a 60% global increase in primary

energy usage in the next 20 years

Finland estimates a need for new and

replacement investments into electricity

production of 7,5 GW in only 5 years.

Page 21: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 21

The world is electrifying with and accelerated rate

Global power market forecast – medium term New Power Plant Orders in GW p.a

Page 22: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 22

The energy mix is moving towards CO2 neutral

Overall steady market with CO2 neutral dominant - Wind & PV gaining share against Hydro

MAIN TRENDS:

• PV taking off

• Biomass substantial &

steady

• Continued Wind growth

• Decrease of Hydro Jumbo

projects

• Nuclear back

Page 23: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

Clean Power, Clear Solutions – A Faubel-June 4, 2014 – P 23

Our offering development strategy

Shaping our way to work towards Customer’s benefit by …

Page 24: Markus Alholm Energiapäivä 2015 - WEC Finland · 2017. 7. 4. · Kyoto, Stern report, Al Gore Inconvenient truth, Copenhagen..Paris December 2015? Industrial Competitiveness is

www.alstom.com