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7/31/2019 Market Timing via Monthly and Holiday Patterns
1/10
@brma| \k`kei
wkb
@je|nc{ bel Njcklb{ Vb||arex
B Graa Cqehn ke |na X|jhm @brma|
B @brma| Orkag
o{
X|awae Mk`
@ke|Mk| Kewax|kei
yyy%`ke|mk|%hj`
Lkxhcbk`ar \nkx orkag kx vrjwklal bx b raxjqrha gjr kegjr`b|kje bel alqhb|kje%\na hje|ae|x ragcah| varxjebc wkayx bel xnjqcl ej| oa hjex|rqal bxrahj``aelb|kjex |j be{ kewax|jr ke vbr|khqcbr% Abhn kewax|jr nbx |j hjelqh|lqa lkckiaeha bel laxkie be biaelb |bkcjral |j kelkwklqbc hkrhq`x|behax%
?62? @ke|Mk|%hj`
http://www.mintkit.com/http://www.mintkit.com/7/31/2019 Market Timing via Monthly and Holiday Patterns
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Xq``br{
\na x|jhm `brma| lkxvcb{x b wbrka|{ jg vb||arex |nb| hbe xarwa bx |na hrq~ jg b |k`kei
x|rb|ai{% B xnjyhbxa ckax ke |na jg|-xaae xqria jg |na `brma| brjqel |na |qre jg |na `je|n
bx yacc bx |na rqe-qv |j b njcklb{%
Bx yk|n bcc |nkeix# |na |k`kei x|rb|ai{ ljax nbwa k|x xnjr|hj`keix% Be a~b`vca kewjcwax |na
eaal |j lbr| ke bel jq| jg |na `brma| `jra |nbe b ljtae |k`ax b {abr ke jrlar |j |bma gqcc
blwbe|bia jg |na vb||arex%
Bej|nar lrbyobhm x|a`x grj` |na nkinar rb|a jg kehj`a |b~ je xnjr|-|ar` vrjgk|x bx
jvvjxal |j cjei-rqe ibkex ke |na x|jhm `brma|% \na vrahkxa k`vbh| ykcc jg hjqrxa lavael
je |na xvahkgkh hkrhq`x|behax xqhn bx |na |rblarx hjqe|r{ jg raxklaeha%
Laxvk|a |na nbxxcax# |njqin# |rblkei yk|n |na hbcaelbr hbe vrjlqha b nkinar vb{jgg b| caxxrkxm |nbe |na nq`lrq` vjckh{ jg oq{kei x|jhmx bel njclkei |na` kelagkek|ac{% Gjr |nkx
rabxje# b |k`kei x|rb|ai{ obxal je `je|nc{ h{hcax bel `brma| njcklb{x ravraxae|x b graa
cqehn je Ybcc X|raa|%
$ $ $
Ma{yjrlx4
H{hcax# @brma|# \k`kei# @je|nc{# Vb||arex# X|jhm# Ojel# @brma|# Vargjr`beha# Bebc{xkx#
\b~# Kewax|kei# _kxm
$ $ $
7/31/2019 Market Timing via Monthly and Holiday Patterns
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$ $ $
Bhhjrlkei |j |na xk`vckx|kh `jlacx jg gkebehkbc |najr{# |na x|jhm `brma| `jwax ke b rbelj`
gbxnkje lawjkl jg be{ |{va jg jrlar jr x|rqh|qra% Ke rabck|{# |njqin# |na ojqrxa a~nkok|x b
wbrka|{ jg vb||arex%
\na rahqrrae| |na`ax kehcqla b oqehn jg h{hcax |nb| hbe oa qxal bx |na irjqelyjrm gjr b
|k`kei x|rb|ai{ .Mk`# ?626= Ykmkvalkb# ?626+% Bx be a~b`vca# b cjei-ckwal `j|kg ckax ke |na
|aelaeh{ jg |na ojqrxa |j xqria brjqel |na |qre jg |na `je|n% Bej|nar graqae| jq|hrjv kx
be qvxyacc jg |na `brma| dqx| oagjra b njcklb{%
\na nbrl{ |a`vcb|ax jg |nkx xjr| `b{ oa qxal o{ |na lag| kewax|jr |j hbrwa jq| nkinar
ra|qrex% Ke vbr|khqcbr# |na |k`kei xhna`a hbe oab| |na ocbel vcj{ jg oq{kei x|jhmx b| |na
jq|xa| bel njclkei |na` yk|njq| ca|qv%
Bej|nar lrby jg |na |k`kei bvvrjbhn ckax ke |na hq|ljye jg rkxm hj`vbral |j |na lagbqc|
vjckh{ jg oq{-bel-njcl% @jra vrahkxac{# |na wjcb|kck|{ jg |na ek`oca vjr|gjckj kx `brmalc{
cjyar |nbe |na |nrbxnkei ae|bkcal o{ |na hrqx|{ xhna`a jg njclkei je|j b vjxk|kje |nrjqin
|nkhm bel |nke%
\nbemx |j |naxa |rbk|x# |na bwarbia ra|qre bldqx|al gjr rkxm jq|xnkeax |na hjewae|kjebc vcj{
jg oq{-bel-gjria|% Oa||ar ra|qrex b| cjyar rkxm4 narax b x|brm xb`vca jg b graa cqehn je Ybcc
X|raa|%
Ke |na xah|kjex |j hj`a# ya oaike yk|n b xqrwa{ jg |na hbqxbc gbh|jrx oankel b hjqvca jg
lqrboca vb||arex ke |na x|jhm `brma|% \na varaeekbc `j|kgx hbe oa qxal |j blwbe|bia ej|
jec{ o{ |na xnjr|-|ar` |rblar oq| |na cjei-rbeia kewax|jr bx yacc%
8
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Lrkwkei Gjrhax
\na x|jhm `brma| nbx b nbok| jg xqrikei brjqel |na |qre jg |na `je|n% \na ojqeha ke vrkha
kx b |acc|bca jg b ea| kegcq~ jg gqelx ke|j |na ojqrxa%
Ej ljqo| jea rabxje gjr |na `je|nc{ njv kx |na nbok| jg |na iaearbc vqockh gjr vcjykei vbr|
jg |nakr kehj`a ke|j |na `brma| brjqel |na ael jg |na `je|n% Bg|ar vb{kei jgg |nakr okccx# |na
`bxx jg kewax|jrx hbe lahkla njy `qhn jg |nakr xbwkeix |j gqeeac ke|j |na hbvk|bc `brma|x%
B xahjel# bel racb|al# lrkwar ckax ke |na bccj|`ae| jg gqelx o{ jribektb|kjex ke|j vaexkje
gqelx% Be a~b`vca kewjcwax |na `b|hnkei hje|rkoq|kjex grj` a`vcj{arx |j |na ra|kra`ae|
bhhjqe|x `bebial varxjebcc{ o{ |na yjrmarx% \na kegcjy jg hbxn kx b ijlxael gjr |na
oaeagkhkbrkax jwar |na cjei rbeia bx yacc bx b |jekh gjr |na ojqrxa ke |na xnjr| rqe%
B |nkrl gbh|jr x|a`x grj` |na nbok| jg `be{ b vrjgaxxkjebc |rblar |j ckqklb|a |nakr xnjr|
vjxk|kjex vrkjr |j |bmkei jgg gjr b njcklb{% Je |na ynjca# nbrl-hjra vrjgaxxkjebcx bra `jra
ckmac{ |nbe hbxqbc kewax|jrx |j |bma qv |na lkha{ nbok| jg xnjr|kei b x|jhm= |nb| kx# ojrrjykei
xnbrax grj` |nakr orjmarx bel xacckei |na` |j j|nar |rblarx% \j hcjxa jq| |nakr vjxk|kjex# |na
vqe|arx bra jockial |j oq{ qv |na hjrraxvjelkei xnbrax ke jrlar |j ravb{ |na cjbe jg x|jhm%
\na |rbexbh|kje ikwax rkxa |j b |rbexkae| xqria ke la`bel gjr |na aqk|kax%
Gjr kex|beha# b x|jhm |nb| nbx oaae ojrrjyal bel xjcl xnjr| b yaam abrckar nbx |j oa
ravcbhal o{ vrjhqrkei |na xb`a eq`oar jg xnbrax je |na jvae `brma|% Ke |nkx yb{# |na
hcjxqra jg |na vjxk|kje ikwax b ojjx| |j |na aqk|{%
Bej|nar rabxje gjr |na oqj{beh{ jg |na `brma| dqx| oagjra b njcklb{ xvrkeix grj` |na
dbqe|{ b|`jxvnara ke |na vjvqcb|kje b| cbria% B`kl |na iaearbc bkr jg ijjl hnaar bel nkin
xvkrk|x# kewax|jrx jg bcc oraalx bra `jra ckmac{ |nbe qxqbc |j |nrjy ke be a~|rb icjo jg xvbra
hbxn ke|j |na `brma| ke xvk|a |na nbtbrlx ke x|jra%
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Ke |naxa yb{x# b wbrka|{ jg `j|kwa gjrhax hj`a ke|j vcb{ brjqel |na |qre jg |na `je|n jr
dqx| oagjra b njcklb{% \na jq|hj`a kx be qvxyacc jg la`bel gjr x|jhmx# ynkhn xnjyx qv bx
b ojjx| gjr |na `brma| b| cbria%
Khje jg @brma| \k`kei
Ke |na brab jg `brma| |k`kei# b wbeiqbrl kx gjqel ke be bebc{x| eb`al Ejr`be Gjxobhm% Ke
2;92# |na vkjeaar hj-gjqelal b raxabrhn irjqv eb`al \na Kex|k|q|a gjr Ahjej`a|rkh
_axabrhn% Bg|ar x|ql{kei |na x|jhm `brma| gjr xawarbc {abrx# |na kewax|kib|jr hb`a qv yk|n
b |rblkei xhna`a ynkhn hb`a |j oa mejye bx |na Xabxjebck|{ \k`kei X{x|a` .Gjxobhm#
?626+%
\na hae|arvkaha jg |na vrjirb` ybx b xbcc{ ke|j |na x|jhm `brma| |jybrl |na ael jg abhn
`je|n# gjccjyal o{ be a~k| xnjr|c{ bg|ar |na jexa| jg |na gjccjykei `je|n% B xk`kcbr
bvvrjbhn ybx qxal ke aeibikei |na ojqrxa jwar |na xvbe jg b gay lb{x vrkjr |j b njcklb{
lqrkei ynkhn |na `brma| yjqcl oa hcjxal gjr oqxkeaxx%
_ahkva gjr |na \k`kei X|rb|ai{
Xkeha k| ybx gkrx| ke|rjlqhal# |na \k`kei X{x|a` qelaryae| b eq`oar jg `kejr rawkxkjex%
Awae xj# |na obxkh klabx nbwa ra`bkeal |na xb`a%
\na |nrqx| jg |na |rblkei x|rb|ai{ nbx oaae vbhmbial ke|j b nbel{ xa| jg lahkxkje rqcax o{
b raejyeal vrjoar jg `brma| x|rb|aikax% Bhhjrlkei |j @brm Nqcoar|# gjqelar jg |na Nqcoar|
Gkebehkbc Lkiax|# |na ma{ gab|qrax jg |na \k`kei X{x|a` bra bx gjccjyx .Nqcoar|# ?668+%
2% \j a~vcjk| |na vjxk|kwa xabxjebck|{ brjqel |na |qre jg |na `je|n4 Oq{ b| |na hcjxa jg
|na |nkrl-|j-cbx| |rblkei lb{ jg abhn `je|n# bel xacc b| |na hcjxa jg |na gkg|n |rblkei
xaxxkje jg |na gjccjykei `je|n%
?% \j |bv ke|j |na vra-njcklb{ qv|qre4 Oq{ b| |na hcjxa jg |na |nkrl-|j-cbx| |rblkei lb{
vrkjr |j b njcklb{ gjr |na x|jhm a~hnbeia# bel xacc b| |na hcjxa jg |na cbx| |rblkei lb{
oagjra |na njcklb{%
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8% A~hav|kjex |j |na gjraijkei rqcax4 Kg |na njcklb{ gbccx je b \nqrxlb{# xacc b| |na hcjxa
je Grklb{ rb|nar |nbe Yaleaxlb{% Bcxj# kg |na cbx| lb{ oagjra b njcklb{ kx |na gkrx|
|rblkei lb{ jg |na yaam# lje| xacc qe|kc |na lb{ bg|ar |na njcklb{% Gkebcc{# eawar xacc
je |na gkrx| |rblkei lb{ bg|ar jv|kjex a~vkra= kex|abl ybk| be a~|rb lb{%
O{ blnarkei |j |na \k`kei X{x|a`# |na vjr|gjckj kx a~vjxal |j |na x|jhm `brma| caxx |nbe
nbcg |na |k`a% Lqrkei |na ra`bkelar jg |na hbcaelbr# |na `jea{ hbe oa x|bxnal byb{ xbgac{
ke ke|arax|-oabrkei wankhcax xqhn bx `jea{-`brma| gqelx%
X|qrl{ Vargjr`beha
Cjjmkei b| |na oki vkh|qra# |na |ahnekqax gjr oab|kei |na x|jhm `brma| nbwa b yb{ jg
cjxkei |nakr `jdj bx |k`a ijax o{% Bx |na vb{jgg grj` b gjr`qcb oahj`ax iaearbc
mejycalia# b irjykei njrla jg ib`arx dq`v je |na obelybije% B`kl |na irjqelxyacc jg
hj`va|k|kje ke |na gkacl# k| oahj`ax kehrabxkeic{ lkggkhqc| gjr be{ xkeica vcb{ar |j rabv |na
raybrlx ke b hjexkx|ae| gbxnkje%
Je |na qvxkla# |njqin# |na \k`kei X{x|a` nbx vrjwae |j oa ra`brmboc{ raxkckae|% Ke gbh|#
|na |ahnekqa nbx cjei rakieal bx jea jg |na `jx| vj|ae| xhna`ax ke |na br`jr{ jg
kewax|`ae| `a|njlx%
\na vqehn{ vargjr`beha ybx xnjyhbxal jwar |na hjqrxa jg b lahbla aelkei ke
Laha`oar ?66;% Obxal je |na orjbl-obxal oaehn`brm jg 1#666 x|jhmx hjwaral o{ |na
Ykcxnkra kela~# |na \k`kei X{x|a` |rjqehal |na vbxxkwa vcj{ jg oq{-bel-njcl gjr o{
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Labckei yk|n \rbexbh|kje Hjx|x
Je |na ljyexkla# |na \k`kei X{x|a` raqkrax b gbkr b`jqe| jg |rblkei# bcjei yk|n |na
|rbexbh|kje hjx|x ae|bkcal% Ke b rahae| bvvckhb|kje jg |na `a|njljcji{# |na kewax|jr nbl |j
`bma 29 rjqel |rkvx ke|j |na x|jhm `brma| abhn {abr%
Jea yb{ |j maav b ckl je |na hjx| jg |rblkei kx |j qxa b xa| jg ckemal bhhjqe|x yk|nke b
gb`kc{ jg gqelx% Gjr kex|beha# b vbkr jg aggkhkae| vjjcx `kin| bccjy gjr |na graa |rbexgar jg
hbxn obhm bel gjr|n oa|yaae be kela~ gqel bel b `jea{ `brma| |rqx|% Ke |nb| hbxa# |na
`jjcb hjqcl `jwa abxkc{ oa|yaae |na ke|arax|-oabrkei bhhjqe| bel |na aqk|{ vjjc yk|njq|
kehqrrkei be{ mkel jg xqrhnbria%
Bej|nar yb{ |j k`vca`ae| |na hbcaelbr xhna`a kx |j qxa be a~hnbeia |rblal gqel.A\G+
ynkhn |rbhmx b oaehn`brm jg |na x|jhm `brma|% B hbxa ke vjke| kx |na kela~ gqel gjr |na
X|belbrl ' Vjjrx {brlx|khm jg 166 ikbe|x ke |na x|jhm `brma|% \na A\G |rblax je |na Q%X%
ojqrxa qelar |na |khmar x{`ojc jg XV[%
B wbrkb|kje je |na |na`a kewjcwax |na a~hnbeia |rblal gqel obxal je |na kela~ jg 266
cablkei x|jhmx je |na Ebxlb a~hnbeia% \na wankhca |rblax qelar |na hbcc xkie jg RRR%
Je b eaib|kwa ej|a# |njqin# be A\G kx ojqin| bel xjcl |nrjqin be aqk|{ bhhjqe| dqx| ckma
be{ j|nar x|jhm% Bx b raxqc|# abhn |rbexbh|kje ae|bkcx b hj``kxxkje |j |na orjmarbia gkr`%
O{ hje|rbx|# b vrjgaxxkjebc |rblar `kin| |bma qv b lkggarae| bvvrjbhn bc|jia|nar ke
k`vca`ae|kei |na \k`kei X{x|a`% Ke |nkx ckin|# be bc|areb|kwa xhna`a kewjcwax |na qxa jg b
larkwb|kwa vrjlqh| je |na gq|qrax `brma|%
\na vqe|ar hjqcl |bma qv jea jr `jra gq|qrax hje|rbh|x ke jrlar |j |rbhm b oaehn`brm xqhn
bx |na X'V 166 kela~% @abeynkca |na hbxn ke |na |rblkei bhhjqe| yjqcl oa xbgac{ vbrmal
b| bcc |k`ax ke |na gjr` jg ke|arax|-oabrkei bxxa|x xqhn bx cjei-|ar` ojelx kxxqal o{ |na
Q%X% Lavbr|`ae| jg |na \rabxqr{% \na cjy-rkxm xahqrk|kax yjqcl xarwa bx hjccb|arbc bcxj
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mejye ke |na |rbla bx |na `brike |j obhm qv |na a~vjxal vjxk|kjex ke |na gq|qrax
hje|rbh|x%
B vrk`a blwbe|bia jg |na gjraijkei xhna`a kx |na ckqklk|{# aggkhkaeh{ bel hjewaekaeha jg
rjqel-|na-hcjhm |rblkei bwbkcboca je |na acah|rjekh vcb|gjr`x laxkieal gjr |na gq|qrax
`brma|% Bej|nar bccqra gjr |na xnjr|-|ar` |rblar ckax ke |na gbwjrboca |rab|`ae| jg kehj`a
|b~ je vrjgk|x abreal |nrjqin gq|qrax hje|rbh|x= |na rb|ax bra cjyar |nbe |na hjrraxvjelkei
wbcqax gjr obxkh kex|rq`ae|x xqhn bx hj``je x|jhmx%
Je |na ljyexkla# |njqin# |na gq|qrax `brma| kx b gbx|-`jwkei gkacl |nb| |rkvx qv bel mejhmx
jq| `be{ b eayhj`ar% Gjr |nkx rabxje# |na |rabhnarjqx lj`bke kx |njrjqinc{ kebv| gjr |na
`bxx jg kewax|jrx%
Hbcaelbr Vb||arex gjr Abreax| Kewax|jrx
Bx ya nbwa xaae# |rblkei yk|n |na hbcaelbr hj`ax yk|n b ibiica jg blwbe|biax bel b
x`b||arkei jg ckbokck|kax% Je |na ljyexkla# `jx| kewax|jrx nbwa eak|nar |na |k`a ejr |na
ke|arax| ke yabwkei ke bel jq| jg |na `brma| `jra |nbe b ljtae |k`ax b {abr%
Awae xj# |bmkei blwbe|bia jg h{hckh vb||arex kx cbriac{ b `b||ar jg lairaa rb|nar |nbe
hb|aijr{% Vq| bej|nar yb{# |na qxa jg `brma| |a`vcb|ax kx ej| b qax|kje jg bcc jr ejea%
_b|nar# |na xnrayl vcb{ar hbe rac{ je |na `j|kgx ke b xqvvjr|kei rjca yk|nke b cbriar
vrjirb` jg kewax|`ae|% Be a~a`vcbr ckax ke |na xnqe| jg gqelx ke|j be bxxa| ke |k`ax jg
yabmeaxx rb|nar |nbe x|raei|n ke |na `brma|vcbha%
Gjr kex|beha# |na kewax|jr hjqcl `bma b nbok| jg gqeeackei graxn gqelx ke|j |na x|jhm `brma|
brjqel |na |nkrl yaam jg |na `je|n rb|nar |nbe xj`a j|nar vjr|kje jg |na hbcaelbr% O{ |na
xb`a |jmae# b gcbiikei x|jhm jqin| |j oa xjcl dqx| oagjra b njcklb{ rb|nar |nbe b gay lb{x
bg|arybrl%
Ke |naxa yb{x# |na hbee{ kewax|jr hbe `jwa ke bel jq| jg |na `brma| ke |qea yk|n |na
hqrrae|x b| cbria% \na lbel{ rjq|kea varmx qv |na bwarbia ra|qre je kewax|`ae| o{ b
>
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_agaraehax
Gjxobhmx Gqel Gjrahbx|ar% \na Xabxjebck|{ \k`kei X{x|a`%
n||vx4**yyy%gjxobhm%hj`*xabxjebck|{Zx{x|a`%n|` |bvval ?62?*7*>%
Nqcoar|# @% \k`kei X{x|a` Ijea# Ej| Gjrij||ae% ?668*2*>%
n||v4**yyy%`brma|yb|hn%hj`*x|jr{*|k`kei-x{x|a`-ijea-oq|-ej|-gjrij||ae |bvval
?62?*7*22%
Nqcoar|# @% \rblkei |na Hbcaelbr% ?626*?*%
Mk`# X% @brma| H{hcax% n||v4**yyy%`ke|mk|%hj`*`brma|-h{hcax |bvval ?62?*7*21%
Ykmkvalkb% X|jhm @brma| H{hcax% n||v4**ae%ykmkvalkb%jri*ykmk*X|jhmZ`brma|Zh{hcax
|bvval ?62?*7*21%
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