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Prepared for: Kelly Morgan Habitat for Humanity Seattle King County 560 Naches Ave SW, Suite 110, Renton, WA 98057
Date of Report: February 22, 2019
Market Study: Affordable Homeownership Opportunities at the Fort Lawton Site in Seattle, WA
2
Table of Contents Report Type and Purpose ..................................................................................................................... 3
Proposed Habitat for Humanity Housing .............................................................................................. 3
Scope of Work ....................................................................................................................................... 3
Overview of Magnolia Neighborhood‐ Fort Lawton ............................................................................. 5
Magnolia Land Use and Zoning ............................................................................................................. 6
Economic Factors Affecting Magnolia .................................................................................................. 9
3.1. Employment by Sector ................................................................................................................ 10
Detailed Employment Forecast ........................................................................................................... 11
3.2. Income ........................................................................................................................................ 12
3.3. Demographic Growth .................................................................................................................. 14
3.4. Housing Price Trends .................................................................................................................. 15
Affordable Housing in Seattle ............................................................................................................. 17
4.1. Development and Funding .......................................................................................................... 17
4.2. Location of Affordable Housing .................................................................................................. 19
Market Analysis ................................................................................................................................... 22
5.1. Magnolia House Values – Assessor Data .................................................................................... 22
5.2. Magnolia Home Sale Prices – Northwest MLS ............................................................................ 23
Townhouse Sales ................................................................................................................................. 23
Single Family Residence Sales (All Styles) ........................................................................................... 23
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 24
Legal Requirements ............................................................................................................................ 25
Extraordinary Assumptions and Hypothetical Conditions .................................................................. 25
General Assumptions .......................................................................................................................... 25
Limiting Conditions ............................................................................................................................. 25
Certification ......................................................................................................................................... 25
3
REPORT TYPE AND PURPOSE
This report is a Market Study with the purpose of addressing the need for low‐income, self‐help
homeownership housing (Habitat for Humanity Housing) as proposed in the Fort Lawton Army Reserve
Center Redevelopment Plan (“Fort Lawton”), updated February 4, 2019. Fort Lawton is located in the
Magnolia neighborhood in Seattle, WA, 98199.
Proposed Habitat for Humanity Housing
52 living units comprised of 20 duplex‐style townhouses, and two, row houses with six townhouses each
constructed on four± acre site. Each of the 52 semi‐attached and attached units would be three‐stories
in height and have approximately 1,200 sf of living area with three bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms. Each
townhouse would have a garage on the ground floor located beneath the living spaces on the second
and third floors. The townhouses will be constructed to the Evergreen Sustainable Development
Standard.
Scope of Work
• Review the Draft of the Fort Lawton Arm Reserve Center Redevelopment Plan, Updated
February 4, 2019.
• Research demographics and economic factors affecting Magnolia and the Fort Lawton area.
• Research property values in the Magnolia neighborhood of Seattle over a three‐ year period
from Feb. 2016 to Feb. 2019 using the Northwest MLS. In addition, the 2018 Magnolia Report
issued by the King County Assessor was reviewed.
• Research information related to the current location of affordable housing throughout Seattle
with a focus on the Magnolia Neighborhood/Fort Lawton area.
• Review media articles related to Affordable Housing in the Seattle Area.
• Produce a written report of my findings regarding the need for low income housing in the Fort
Lawton area and the broader Magnolia neighborhood.
4
Fort Lawton Draft Redevelopment Plan
Habitat for Humanity Housing
5
OVERVIEW OF MAGNOLIA NEIGHBORHOOD- FORT LAWTON
The Fort Lawton area is located in the Magnolia neighborhood (“Magnolia”) which is located in what is
known as Central Seattle. This westernmost Seattle neighborhood is bounded by Shilshole Bay, Hiram
M. Chittenden Locks, and Salmon Bay on the North; the Interbay Railyard to the east, and Puget Sound
to the West and South.1 Magnolia is approximately four miles northwest of downtown Seattle.
1 Within this report, the boundaries of census tracts 56, 57, 58.01, and 58.02 are used to define Magnolia geographically when using census data. Tracts 58.01 and 58.01 do not entirely lie within the boundaries of Magnolia, and include all of Interbay and some sections of western Queen Anne.
6
Magnolia is part of the City of Seattle, although due its somewhat isolated location, it is often described
as an in‐city suburb. The isolation stems in part from there being only three access points from the
broader City of Seattle to Magnolia: Magnolia Bridge at the south, Dravis Street at its center, and
Emerson Street at its north. Magnolia is home to Discovery Park, the largest city park in Seattle totaling
534 acres of natural landscaping and open space. Discovery Park has spectacular views of the Cascade
and Olympic Mountain Ranges, attributable to its location on Magnolia Bluff overlooking Puget Sound.
The land that Discovery Park currently occupies was designated as a U.S. Army base and artillery battery,
named Fort Lawton, in the late 19th century. Fort Lawton was actively used as an army base during
World War II, but fell into disuse afterward. In the early 1970s, the U.S. Army began exploring the
disposition of Fort Lawton, among other surplus military properties, for less than market value. Native
American activists occupied the site in protest and succeeded in getting a 40 acre portion of the site set
aside for a Native American community center, the Daybreak Star Cultural Center. The majority of Fort
Lawton was transferred to the City of Seattle in 1973, for establishment as Discovery Park. Scattered
former barracks and officers’ housing dating to the early 20th century are still found within the bounds of
the park, some of which have been extensively renovated and sold for prices ranging between $900,000
and $3.7 million. The federal government retained a portion of the original Fort Lawton property for use
as the Fort Lawton Army Reserve Center, located directly to the east of Discovery Park (henceforth
referred to as “Fort Lawton” or the “Subject Site” for purposes of this report). In 2005, the U.S.
government designated the Subject Site as surplus land and began the disposition process for Fort
Lawton.
Magnolia is one of the wealthiest and most well established neighborhoods in the city of Seattle.
Magnolia is primarily developed with single‐family homes built in the late 1930s and 1940s. Forty
percent of properties have some type of view, either of Puget Sound, the Seattle Skyline, or the Cascade
or Olympic mountain range. Some of the most expensive homes in Seattle are located in Magnolia with
many of its residents considered affluent, having some of the highest household incomes in the Puget
Sound area.2
Magnolia Land Use and Zoning
Of the approximately 2,640 acres in Magnolia, 2,182 acres, or 82.5%, are zoned exclusively for single‐
family housing.3 206 acres, or 7.8% of the land in Magnolia, is zoned to permit townhouse or multi‐
family development, with the remainder zoned for industrial uses. Multi‐family zoning and development
is predominately limited to the eastern edge of Magnolia, near the Interbay railyard, and some blocks
adjacent to arterials. The table to the right represents the housing unit makeup of Magnolia and those
units in the area immediately adjacent to the eastern edge of the neighborhood.4
2 King County Assessor, Magnolia Report, Area: 011, Residential Revalue for 2018 Assessment Roll 3 1214 acres are zoned as SF‐5000, permitting one unit per 5,000 square foot lot. 932 acres are zoned as SF‐7200, permitting one unit per 7,200 square foot lot. 37 acres are zoned as SF‐9600, permitting one unit per 9,600 square foot lot. 4 Data was pulled from the 2017 ACS for Census Tracts 56, 57, 58.01, and 58.02.
7
Approximately 96% of the 6,979 parcels in Magnolia are
improved, with a majority of the remaining undeveloped land
considered unbuildable or set aside as parkland. New
construction primarily consists of demolition of the original
improvement and construction of a new, larger single‐family
home.
Immediately adjoining the Subject Site is Discovery Park to the
west and immediate south, single‐family development in areas
zoned SF 7200 to the immediate east and north, and limited
multi‐family and commercial uses along W Government Way,
a minor arterial to the south.
8
9
ECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING MAGNOLIA
The Seattle‐Bellevue‐Everett Metropolitan Division (“Seattle metro area”) has expanded significantly
since the Great Recession. With the expansion of Amazon in downtown Seattle adding over 35,000 jobs
in the last nine years and rising wages in the technology sector, the growing economy has been a boon
for the area.5 Unfortunately, with this increased demand, housing costs have skyrocketed, outpacing the
rise in wages by a significant margin. Since 2010, median wages have risen by 24.4%, while median
housing costs have risen by 83%. This gap has had serious ramifications on housing affordability in the
region.
December 2018 total nonfarm labor
force in the Seattle metro area was
1,776,400, or 57,800 more than
December 2017. As apparent in the
chart to the right, current data
indicates that nine sectors gained jobs
in 2018, including Manufacturing
(+9,000), Information (+8,000), and
Professional and Business Services
(+11,900). Mining and Logging held
steady and Government contracted (‐
2,900).
The December unemployment rate for
the Seattle metro area dropped to
3.8%, down from 3.9% in November
2018 and 4.0% in December 2017. This
is down from a high of 10.3% in
February 2010.6 The nonfarm wage
and salary employment for December
indicated a still expanding labor
market.
5 Svenja Gudell, “What Amazon's Growth Has Meant for Seattle, “ Forbes, January 19, 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/zillow/2018/01/19/what‐amazons‐growth‐has‐meant‐for‐seattle/#536cc46f3f62 6 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Local Area Unemployment Statistics‐ Seattle‐Tacoma‐Bellevue, WA”, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LAUMT534266000000003?amp%253bdata_tool=XGtable&output_view=data&include_graphs=true
10
3.1. Employment by Sector
Manufacturing
The Manufacturing sector is made up of establishments engaged in the mechanical, physical, or
chemical transformation of materials, substances, or components into new products. Major
manufacturing firms in the Seattle metro area include Boeing, Honeywell Aerospace, Philips, FujiFilm,
SonoSite, and GE Healthcare.
Information
The Information sector contains firms engaged in several processes: (a) producing and distributing
information and cultural products, (b) providing the means to transmit or distribute these products as
well as data or communications, and (c) processing data. Common components of this sector are the
publishing industries, including software publishing, and both traditional publishing, and publishing
exclusively on the Internet; the motion picture and sound recording industries; the broadcasting
industries; the telecommunications industries; Web search portals, data processing industries, and the
information services industries. Major employers in the Information industry in the Seattle metro area
include Amazon and Expedia. Amazon employs roughly 40,000 people in the Seattle core, up from 5,000
employees in 2010. Google (3,000 employees),7 Facebook (3,000 employees)8, and Apple (500‐1,000
employees)9 also maintain sizeable satellite offices in downtown Seattle and the Fremont neighborhood.
Professional and Business Services
The Professional and Business Services industry sector comprises jobs that provide specialized services
for others. Top paying jobs within this industry include lawyers, scientific researchers and developers,
and computer systems designers. Major employers include Barrett Business Services and Microsoft.
Microsoft employs roughly 47,000 people, largely at its corporate campus in Redmond, on the Eastside.
7 Nat Levy, “Google doubles down on Seattle region with giant new office leases,” Geekwire, August 24, 2018, https://www.geekwire.com/2018/google‐doubles‐seattle‐region‐giant‐new‐office‐leases/. 8 Nay Levy, “Facebook tops 3,000 Seattle‐area employees as major hiring spree continues,” Geekwire, November 5, 2018, https://www.geekwire.com/2018/facebook‐tops‐3000‐seattle‐area‐employees‐major‐hiring‐spree‐continues/. 9Todd Bishop, “Apple to top 1,000 employees in Seattle, add new site in city as part of broader national expansion,” Geekwire, December 13, 2018, https://www.geekwire.com/2018/apple‐top‐1000‐employees‐seattle‐add‐new‐site‐city‐part‐broader‐national‐expansion/.
11
Detailed Employment Forecast
The Washington State Employment Security Department has reported industry employment projections
for 2021 and 2026 for King and Snohomish Counties. A snapshot of this data is as follows:
It is expected that employment growth in the Seattle metro area will be in the Professional & Business
Services (2.73%), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (3.43%), and Information (4.03%)
industries, annually. Negative growth will come in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing (‐0.39%),
Durable Goods (‐0.09%), and Manufacturing (‐0.02%), annually.
12
3.2. Income
Seattle is a seaport city within King County, Washington. It is located on an isthmus between Puget
Sound and Lake Washington. With a land area of approximately 84 square miles, the city is home to
many neighborhoods, including Magnolia, Capitol Hill, Beacon Hill, and Queen Anne.
Median incomes in the Seattle metro area are among the highest in the country and have risen
substantially in recent years. Income growth in Seattle has been rapid between 2011 and 2017, where
per capita incomes increased by 24% to approximately $52,000, at an annual rate of 4.07%. Median
household income increased during the same time period by 28%, or 4.83% annually, to reach
approximately $80,000. Note that these figures do not distinguish between wage changes and
demographic changes—the influx of highly paid workers and displacement of lower‐income workers
from the city. Across the entire Seattle metro area, median household income has increased from
$67,000 to $77,300 from 2011 to 2017, an increase of 15%.
Median incomes in Magnolia are significantly higher than those of the city of Seattle. Current estimates
place Magnolia’s median household income roughly 20% above Seattle as a whole at $62,305 per capita
and $136,344 per household. Magnolia’s population is made up of larger household sizes and slower
population growth which can be credited to the established and wealthy nature of the neighborhood.
Like Seattle as a whole, incomes in Magnolia are expected to increase at a steady pace over the next two
years, slightly lower than what was experienced between 2011 and 2017, at 2% annual growth.
13
Magnolia
14
3.3. Demographic Growth
Since 2010, Seattle has routinely been the fastest growing major city in the United States, growing
between 1.8 and 2% per year.
Between 2010 and 2017, the population in Seattle increased by an aggregate rate of 13%, or 79,585
persons. During this period, the number of households increased by 31,340 or an aggregate rate of 11%.
Increasing household size, from 2.15 persons per household to 2.19 persons per household, contributed
a smaller percentage increase in households than population during the period from 2010 to 2017.
Conservative population growth projections estimate approximately 711,000 persons in 2020.10
Between 2010 and 2017, the population of Magnolia increased by 11.4%, or 2,530 persons. During this
period, the number of households increased by 820 or approximately 8%. Household size also grew from
2.15 persons per household in 2010 to 2.22 persons per household in 2017.
10 Dick Conway, “Economic Outlook: The Next 10 Years,” Seattle Business Magazine, January 2014, https://www.seattlebusinessmag.com/article/economic‐outlook‐next‐10‐years
15
3.4. Housing Price Trends
Since 1990, Seattle home prices have increased—in inflation‐adjusted terms—by more than 110%,
significantly outpacing income growth and national home price trends. This rising trend in home prices
has intensified in recent years. Just since 2014, Seattle median home prices have risen from being the
10th most expensive in the country to the 3rd most expensive—behind only San Francisco and San Jose.11
In January 2010, the median
home in Seattle sold for
$381,100, while the median
home in Magnolia sold for
$552,500. In July 2018, median
home prices had increased to
$699,000 in Seattle and
$926,100 in Magnolia, an 83%
and 68% increase respectively
over eight and one‐half years.
As reported above, median
household income in the
Seattle metro area has
increased by 28% since 2011‐‐a
significant increase but far less
than housing costs.
11 Mike Rosenberg, “Seattle Home Prices Have Surpassed Los Angeles, New York and San Diego in the Last Four Years,” The Seattle Times, August 29, 2018, https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real‐estate/seattle‐home‐prices‐have‐surpassed‐los‐angeles‐new‐york‐and‐san‐diego‐in‐the‐last‐four‐years/.
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Infla
tion-
Adju
sted
Hom
e Pr
ice
Inde
x (19
90=1
00)
Inflation Adjusted Home Price Index, 1990-2019
Seattle NationalSource: Federal Reserve Bank, S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National and WA-Seattle Home Price Index; Consumer Price Index
16
The consequences of this remarkable rise in housing prices in Magnolia and Seattle as a whole have
been felt by Seattleites across the income spectrum, as surging home prices and rents have priced lower
income residents out of the city and/or out of homeownership. Between 2009 and 2017,
homeownership rates have fallen from 50% to 47% in Seattle and 66% to 61% in King County.12 In King
County, over 12,000 people are experiencing homelessness as of the 2018 Point‐in‐Time Count—an
increase of 2,000 people since a local state of emergency on homelessness was declared in 2015.13
Approximately 45% of King County residents and 35% of Seattleites are cost‐burdened, spending more
than 30% of their income on housing, and more than 15% of Seattleites are severely cost‐burdened,
spending more than 50% of their income on housing.14
12 U.S. Census Bureau, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOWNRATEACS053033; U.S. Census Bureau, 2005‐2009 American Community Survey, B25003—Tenure; U.S. Census Bureau, 2012‐2017 American Community Survey, B25003—Tenure. 13 All Home, “Count Us In: Seattle/King County Point‐in‐Time Count of Persons Experiencing Homelessness 2018,” May 25, 2019, http://allhomekc.org/wp‐content/uploads/2018/05/FINALDRAFT‐COUNTUSIN2018REPORT‐5.25.18.pdf. CEH, “King County One Night Count: Summary of 2015 Data,” May 6, 2016, http://allhomekc.org/wp‐content/uploads/2016/11/2015‐KC‐ONC‐numbers.pdf 14 US Census Bureau, https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_17_1YR_B25095&prodType=table
17
AFFORDABLE HOUSING IN SEATTLE
The King County Regional Affordable Housing Task Force estimates that greater Seattle—including
Magnolia—needs 156,000 new affordable homes, and an additional 88,000 by 2040. The waiting lists for
affordable housing in Seattle range into the years, with 8,500 households on Seattle Housing Authority’s
waitlist and 14,000 people on the waitlist for King County Housing Authority’s waitlist. The waitlist for
Housing Choice Vouchers (commonly referred to as Section 8 Vouchers) is currently closed and not
anticipated to be opened for the next several years. The last lottery drawing for the Seattle Housing
Authority Housing Choice Vouchers waitlist drew more than 21,500 applicants in two weeks for 3,500
spots.15
The Mayor of Seattle, Jenny Durkan, in her State of the City Address, cited expanding affordable housing
for low and middle‐income families as a priority in 2019. Seattleites are struggling to find affordable
housing within city limits, as housing offered by the private housing market is increasingly out of reach
for police officers, teachers, nurses, and other workers. Gentrification is pricing lower income workers
and families out of Seattle. Retaining workforce housing in the city, close to employment, is vital in a
region still lacking a comprehensive mass transit system.
4.1. Development and Funding
Affordable housing in Seattle is provisioned by nonprofit housing agencies, the HUD‐funded Seattle
Housing Authority and King County Housing Authority. In addition, for‐profit developers provide
affordable units in market‐rate developments as part of tax and zoning incentive programs. According to
Seattle Office of Housing statistics, as of March 2018 there were 28,502 total units of rent and income
restricted apartments in Seattle.16 Since 2010, over 8,685 affordable rental units have been constructed.
There are far fewer affordable homeownership opportunities in Seattle, with 1,050 homebuyers having
been assisted by City‐funded downpayment assistance programs. Of these, 200 homebuyers purchased
permanently affordable homeownership units in the city. These permanently affordable
homeownership units are governed by covenants restricting resale price and eligible homebuyers for at
least 50 years. 17 The Habitat for Humanity development at Fort Lawton would add an additional 52
units to this citywide supply of 200 permanently affordable homeownership units.
15 https://www.seattlehousing.org/sites/default/files/Voice_2017_03.pdf 16 Seattle Office of Housing, Rent and Income Restricted Housing, https://data.seattle.gov/Community/Rent‐and‐Income‐Restricted‐Housing/b6zn‐zsin 17 Seattle Office of Housing, “Annual Investments Report – 2017,” March 2018, http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/Housing/Footer%20Pages/Housing%20Levy/2017%20OH%20Annual%20Investments%20Report.pdf
18
Affordable housing development is
funded by a combination of city and
state affordable housing funds, the
federal Low Income Tax Credit, and
miscellaneous funding. The 2016 Seattle
Housing Levy provides $290 million over
seven years for housing production,
preservation, and assistance.
As the article Good News and Bad News
for Affordable Housing18 reports,
“Seattle closed out 2018 with over 1,400
affordable housing units in the city’s
pipeline for construction and renovation,
the largest single‐year increase in the
city’s history. But it’s still not enough…”
In 2018, $75 million of direct investment
from city hall will go toward ten new
buildings totaling nearly 1,200
apartments and preserving an additional
200‐some existing units. Although this a
significant investment, it is inadequate
to fill the city’s need for affordable
housing. It is insufficient to fully fund all affordable housing development proposals—in 2018 nonprofits
applied for $245 million worth of city funding for affordable housing, of which only 30% was granted.
A major barrier to the construction of more affordable housing in Seattle is the high cost of land in the
city. Nonprofit developers are simply unable to purchase land at the market rate. The only way that
development of affordable housing pencils out in Seattle’s current economy, given limited funding, is to
acquire land at a deep discount. Recent or under‐construction large affordable housing developments in
Seattle, such as transit‐oriented development at the Capitol Hill light rail station or El Centro de la Raza
at the Beacon Hill light rail station, have been predicated on the transfer of government‐owned land for
minimal or no cost to a nonprofit developer. The City of Seattle and Sound Transit have recently
reformed their surplus land disposition policies, to prioritize transferring excess government land for
affordable housing rather than selling it to the highest bidder.
18 Gregory Scruggs, Published Jan. 7, 2019. https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/good‐news‐and‐bad‐news‐for‐affordable‐housing‐in‐seattle
“We’ve done a good job building
dense rental housing [but] not so
good of a job building affordable
family‐style housing… To buy a
house within a 50 to 60 minute
commute of downtown, you have
to have a six‐figure household
income.”
‐Aaron Terrazas, senior economist
at Zillow
Source: Seattle Office of Housing, Annual Investments Report –
19
4.2. Location of Affordable Housing
The location of affordable housing is unevenly distributed throughout Seattle, being almost exclusively
found in areas zoned for multi‐family housing. Affordable housing locations are thus concentrated in the
neighborhoods of Seattle that are zoned to permit multi‐family development, including downtown and
downtown‐adjacent neighborhoods, South Seattle, and North Seattle above 85th St. There is a very
limited amount of affordable housing in Magnolia. There are a total of six income and rent‐restricted
buildings in Magnolia, containing a total of 89 affordable housing units. This is approximately 0.75% of
total housing stock in Magnolia. Put another way, despite being home to 3.6% of Seattleites, Magnolia
contains only 0.31% of Seattle’s affordable housing stock.
In addition to an overall lack of affordable housing in the Seattle area, there is an extreme lack of
affordable family‐sized housing with three bedrooms, like the townhouses proposed for the Subject Site
by Habitat for Humanity. A 2011 city report found that low‐ and middle‐income families needing three
or more bedrooms have the greatest difficulty finding housing. Of the new multifamily units constructed
in Seattle between 2012 and mid‐2017, 52% were one‐bedroom apartments. Studio apartments (no
formal bedroom) make up 29 percent of the new units, followed by two bedroom apartments at 17.5%,
and lastly, just over 1 percent are three‐bedroom units. In Central Seattle, which includes the Magnolia
neighborhood, between 2012 and 2017, Costar reports that no three‐bedroom apartments were
constructed. For households that need at least three bedrooms, single‐family homes are their best
option, however these homes come at a premium in Seattle. In early 2017 more than 40 percent of
Seattle’s single‐family homes were listed at $1 million or more.
20
Magnolia
21
22
MARKET ANALYSIS
5.1. Magnolia House Values – Assessor Data
King County Department of Assessments in its report Residential Revalue for 2018 Assessment Roll
reports Magnolia to have average house values that only purchasers in the upper income range could
afford; those with total household incomes in excess of $100,000. The Assessor divides Magnolia into
seven “neighborhoods” primarily as a means to identify the different land values within each. A figure
depicting these neighborhoods is found below. The immediate neighborhood adjoining the Fort Lawton
area to the east is “Neighborhood 40”. The average time‐adjusted sale price of non‐waterfront
improved parcels is $886,823. Immediately south of the Fort Lawton area is “Neighborhood 10” which
has an average time‐adjusted sale price of non‐waterfront improved parcels of $1,489,933.
“Neighborhood 30” which includes Discovery Park and the Fort Lawton area has an average time‐
adjusted sale price for non‐waterfront improved parcels of $1,432,527.19
19 The time adjusted sale prices are based on sales data from 2015 through 2017.
23
5.2. Magnolia Home Sale Prices – Northwest MLS
Townhouse Sales
Research of Townhouse sales in Magnolia as reported in the Northwest MLS reveals a total of 166
properties with a style code of “Townhouse” have sold within the past three years. These homes range
in gross living area (“GLA”) from 830 sf to 2,814 sf and have one to four bedrooms. The sale prices range
from $465,500 to $1,295,000. The 166 sales have a median sale price of $699,975 for a townhouse with
GLA of 1,504 sf, three bedrooms, and 2.25 bathrooms. The average sale price of these townhouses is
slightly higher at $721,704.
A low‐income purchaser would be unable to reasonably afford a townhome at the lowest sale price over
the past three years, $465,500, let alone one at the median price which is 50% higher in price. A family
of four with a household income of $80,250 is at 80% AMI, the highest end of the income range which
would qualify to purchase townhomes on the Subject Site. Using a current interest rate of 4.375% and
assuming a 3% down payment, the highest purchase price such a family could afford is $385,00020‐‐
$80,000 below the least expensive townhouse sold in the last three years in Magnolia.
Single Family Residence Sales (All Styles)
Similar to the MLS search for sales of Townhouses, I researched the MLS for all sales of single family
properties within the past three years regardless of style. A cursory search revealed 1,048 sales ranging
in sale price from $229,000 to $4,150,000. The median price is $900,000 for a 2,140 sf home with three
bedrooms and 2.25 bathrooms. The average sale price was $1,067,906, skewed higher due to the large
number of higher priced homes in Magnolia. The GLA of these homes is equally as broad as their sales
prices, ranging from 420 sf to 8,125 sf.21
Of the 1,048 sales, only two properties sold for under $400,000; one is a small condominium and the
other sold as a teardown with a subsequent new construction of a larger single‐family residence. Similar
to the market for townhouses discussed above, a low income purchaser is priced‐out of purchasing a
single‐family, market‐rate home in Magnolia.
20 Assuming a maximum front end debt‐to‐income ratio of 36%, which is Fannie Mae’s maximum DTI ratio. Fannie Mae, Selling Guide, “B‐3‐6‐02: Debt‐to‐Income Ratios,” December 4, 2018, https://www.fanniemae.com/content/guide/selling/b3/6/02.html 21 Based on the 948 listings that had GLA reported, therefore the actual low and high for GLA may be different than indicated in this report.
24
CONCLUSION
My review of the housing stock including its composition and sale price range in the Magnolia
neighborhood coupled with my research regarding the demand vs. supply of affordable housing in
Magnolia as well as the broader Seattle area leads me to definitively conclude there to be a strong
demand for affordable housing. Not only is there a dearth of affordable housing for people who are
employed in downtown Seattle and surrounding areas, there is a particular need for the type of single‐
family housing being proposed by Habitat for Humanity; housing that could accommodate a family of
four in an attractive suburban‐type setting yet close to area amenities and local employment.
25
LEGAL REQUIREMENTS
Extraordinary Assumptions and Hypothetical Conditions
None
General Assumptions
Information and data furnished by others is usually assumed to be true, correct, and reliable. When such information and data appear to be dubious and when it is critical to the analysis, a reasonable effort has been made to verify all such information; however, no responsibility for its accuracy is assumed by the appraiser.
Limiting Conditions
Possession of this report, or a copy thereof, does not carry with it the right of publication. It may not be used for any purpose by any person other than the party to whom it is addressed without the written consent of Greenfield Institute. Any person other than Greenfield Institute or the client who obtains and/or uses this report or its contents for any purpose not authorized by Greenfield Institute or the client is hereby forewarned that all legal means to redress may be employed against him.
No environmental impact studies were either requested or made in conjunction with this analysis, other than may be referenced in the report. Greenfield Institute hereby reserves the right to alter, amend, revise, or rescind any of the value opinions based on any subsequent environmental impact studies, research, and/or investigation.
No part of the contents of this report, or copy thereof, shall be conveyed to the public through advertising, public relations, news, sales, or any other media without written consent and approval of Greenfield Institute.
No part of this report may be used as a part of or referred to in a public or private stock offering.
Acceptance of and/or use of this report constitutes acceptance of the foregoing General Assumptions and General Limiting Conditions, Extraordinary Assumptions and Hypothetical Conditions, if appropriate.
The compensation for research services is dependent only on delivery of this report, and is not contingent on the estimates provided.
Certification
I certify that, to the best of my knowledge and belief:
The statements of fact contained in this report are true and correct.
The reported analyses, opinions, and conclusions are limited only by the reported assumptions and limiting conditions and are my personal, impartial, and unbiased professional analyses, opinions, and conclusions.
I have no present or prospective interest in the properties that are the subject of this report and no personal interest with respect to the parties involved.
I have performed no services, as an appraiser or in any other capacity, regarding the properties that are the subject of this report within the 3‐year period immediately preceding acceptance of this assignment.
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I have no bias with respect to the properties that are the subject of this report or to the parties involved with this assignment.
My engagement in this assignment was not contingent upon developing or reporting predetermined results.
My compensation for completing this assignment is not contingent upon the development or reporting of a predetermined value or direction in value that favors the cause of the client, the amount of the value opinion, the attainment of a stipulated result, or the occurrence of a subsequent event directly related to the intended use of this appraisal.
My analyses, opinions, and conclusions were developed, and this report has been prepared, in conformity with the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice 2018‐2019 Edition.
I have not made a personal inspection of the Fort Lawton site, nor have I made an inspection of the immediate Neighborhood.
Jessica Flood, Jesse Simpson, and Linda Tayntor provided me with significant professional assistance in the conduct of this assignment.
The reported analysis, opinions, and conclusions were developed and this report has been prepared in conformity with the Code of Professional Ethics and Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice of the Appraisal Institute, of which I am an MAI Designated Member.
The use of this report is subject to the requirements of the Appraisal Institute relating to review by its duly authorized representatives.
As of the date of this report, I have completed the continuing education program for Designated Members of the Appraisal Institute.
As of the date of this report, I have completed the Standards and Ethics Education Requirements for Designated Members of the Appraisal Institute.
John A. Kilpatrick, PhD, MAI, FRICS
Washington State Certified General Appraiser No. 1100398