Market Research Sweden - Biofuels Market in Sweden 2009

7/31/2019 Market Research Sweden - Biofuels Market in Sweden 2009

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October2009
http://www.netscribes.com/


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ExecutiveSummary

Market

Energysupplied

by

biofuels

in

the

Swedish

market

stood

at

120

TWh

in

2007

and

is

forecasted

to

riseto144TWhin2030and230TWhin2050

TheSwedishbiofuelsmarketisdominatedby

Ethanol BiodieselandBio as

Drivers

CostIncentives

FluctuationsinCrudeOilPrices

Challenges

ResistancefromtheSwedishForestryIndustry

Drivers&

Challenges

SupportforGreenCarOwners

HighGrowthinEthanolVehicles

Biofuels

Market

Being

Dominated

by

Imports

oo vs. ue ssue

HurdleswithBiogasSupply

Government

Initiatives

ma ean nergy o cy

BiogasVastProject

ResearchandDevelopmentProjects

OtherPoliciesTowardsDevelopingtheIndustry

MajorPlayers

Themarketishighlyfragmentedandcomprisesoffewlargeplayers

Largescaleimportshasledtothegrowthofanumberofsmallplayers

MajorPlayers

Ethanol BIodiesel Biogas

LantmannenAgroetanol LantmannenEcobransle LackebyWaterGroup

2BIOFUELSMARKET SWEDEN.PPT

SEKAB PerstorpBioProducts

Malmberg


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Introduction

Drivers&

Challenges

GovernmentPoliciesandInvestments

Major

PlayersKeyDevelopments



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TheEuropeanUnionbiofuelsmarkethasbeengrowingstrongly

withGermanyandFrancebeingthemarketleaders

On23January2008,theEUproposedthatthe

overallenergytargetwouldstandat

Overview Biodiesel

10,000

000MT Germanyis

thelargest

20%renewableenergyuseby2020

10%minimum

target

for

the

market

share

of

biofuelsby2020

TheEUhassetatar etofincor oratin 5.75%4,000

6,000

8,000Production

Imports

producer

biofuelsintransportationby2010

SegmentationofUsageinTransportation Bioethanol

0

2,000

2010f2009f

Exports

2008e2006 2007e

5%

Bioethanol20%

Biodiesel

2,500

3,000

Production

000MT Franceisthe

largest

producer

Vegeta eOi s

75%

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Imports


02006 2007e 2008e 2009f 2010f NOTE:Biogasaccountsforanegligibleshare


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MajorEuropeaninitiativestowardsdevelopingthebiofuels

market

1992:CAP allowed

for

non

food

crops

to

begrownonsetasidelandwithout

losingthesetasidepremium.The

amountofoilseedsgrownonsetaside

2003:Biofuels

Directive

(indicative

targets

2%

by

2005,

5.75%by2010)

EnergyTaxationDirective

RevisionofFuelQualityDirective(gasolinenorms)

landiscontrolledbytheBlairHouse

Agreement.

Revisionofdieselnorms&Biodieselqualitynorms

CAPReforms(changeinenergycroppremium)

1990 2005

1992:

20081995

1997:

2000

2000: 2006:

2008:Drafted

ofthe

Common

Agricultural

Policy(CAP)

onrenewable

energies

onenergy

supply

security

Strategy

energy

directive

2007:RenewablesRoadmapandRevisionofBiofuelsDirective


gasemission

from

transport

fuel

by

1%

per

year

between

2010

and

2020


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Introduction

Drivers&

Challenges

GovernmentPoliciesandInvestments

Major




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BioenergymarketinSwedenhasdevelopedduetomajor

governmentinitiatives

Bioenergysharehasincreasedby3%since

1970

Overview BioenergyShare

of

Total

Energy

Use

%

About90%ofbioenergyusedinSweden

comesfrom

the

forestry

sector

Theshareofbioenergyderivedfromthe

24

20

15

119

10

20

+3%

Intotal,around2%ofSweden'sarablelandis

usedsolelyforenergyproduction

PrimaryUsesofBioenergy ElectricityConsumptionMix

0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 2007

1,000

1,200

1,400

35%

1,370

Wind

Hydro

+7%

TWh

ApplicabilityofBioenergy

200

400

600

800

15%

66%

1%

537 25%

51%

19%3%

1%

28%

69%

14%

704

1%

18%

13%2%

504 GeoThermal

Others

Photovoltaic

Electricity

GenerationUsedasFuel

Heating

Purposes


0

2006 2010e 2020e

4%

2005


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BiofuelscontributiontototalenergyconsumptioninSwedenhas

beenrisingandisexpectedtogrowinthefuture

Thetotalenergysharecontributedbybiofuelshas

risenby32%over200307

Overview TotalEnergy

Supplied

by

Biofuels

TWh

+3%

Inabsoluteterms,energygeneratedhasincreasedby

3%overthesameperiod

TheSwedishbiofuelsmarketisdominatedby

Ethanol

120116109108105

50

100

o ese

Biogas

BiofuelShareoftotalenergy RiseinEnergySuppliedbyBiofuels

0

20072006200520042003

230

200

250

TWh

+2%

+1%

4.00

3.10

3

4

%

+32%

0

144120

0

50

100

1502.232.28

1.32

0

1

2


2050e2030e200720072006200520042003


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EthanolisthemostwidelyusedbiofuelinSweden,supplyis

largelydrivenbyimports Ethanol

Ethanolisthemostcommonliquidbiofuelin

Sweden

Overview TotalSupply

MT Import

Production

Itaccountsforapproximately90%ofallliquid

biofuelused

in

2008

LargestconsumerofbioethanolintheEU200

300400

500

86%

14%

21%19%

78%

22%

460

334316

, ,

consumedinSweden

QuantityofFeedstockUsed

0

100

2007

79%81%

2006 20092008SegmentationofProductionBase

600,000

MT598,000

Rye

Wheat

BarleyWood20%

Cereals

200,000

400,000

6%15%

79%

8%10%9%

81%

9%

320,000

80%

10%

80%

336,000,

12%80%


20092006 2007 2008


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BiodieselmarketinSwedenhasshownpromisinggrowthdueto

variouspoliciesandtheavailabilityoffeedstock Biodiesel

Biodieselcanbeproducedfromdifferent

vegetableoils


Production

ImportMT

InSweden,biodieselismainlyproducedinthe

formof

RME

(rape

methyl

esther)

from

rape

seedoil

100

150

6058%

120

67%

120

71%

140

,

fossildieselinthecounty

Governmentinitiativeshasallowedthis

segmentto

grow QuantityofFeedstockUsed

0

67%

2006

42%

2007

33%

2008

29%

2009

ar oustaxexempt onon o ese

Extensiveplanstowardsdevelopingnewbio

dieselplants

Inordertoenhancedomesticusage,the 132,000

110,000

150,000

RapeseedOilMT

biofueldirectivewhichisexpectedtoincreasethe

blendinglevelfromtheexisting5%to7%byJuly

1,2010

64,000

36,00050,000

100,000


2006 2007 2008 2009


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BiogasmarketinSwedenhasgrownsteadilyandisstillinanascentstagewithmajorpotential Biogas

Totalbiogaspotentialfromdomesticresidual

productsis10.6TWh/year


000tonnesofoileq./yr

Thisisequivalentto12%oftheenergy

consumptionattributabletoroadtransport

Potentialforbiogasproducedfromthe

residualproductsofforestindustryis

161514

11910

15

20

estimatedtobe59TWh/year

Biogasisexpectedtodevelopfurther

Biogasoffers

the

largest

reduction

in

greenhouse

ases com ared to other biofuelsPotential:DomesticResidualProducts

0

2007200620042003 2005

Gaininglargescaleacceptanceasvehiclefuelthat

generatestheleastemissionsofgreenhouse

gases

Since

it

is

produced

from

waste

and

residual

10%

Agriculture7%

products,itavoidsanycompetitionwithfood

production

Itisexpectedtobecapableofsupplyingfuel

to~20%ofthevehiclefleetinSwedenby

FoodIndustry

andothersectors

oo as e7%

SewageSludge

76%


2020


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Introduction

Drivers

&

ChallengesGovernmentPoliciesandInvestments

Major




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DriversandChallenges

DriversChallenges

FluctuationsinCrudeOilPrices

Res stance romt eSwe s Forestry

Industry

Foodvs.

Fuel

Issue

SupportforGreenCarOwners

HighGrowthinEthanolVehicles

HurdleswithBiogasSupply

BiofuelsMarketBeingDominatedby

Imports



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Constantlyincreasingtaxesonconventionalfuelswillboostthe

usageofbiofuels

TheSwedishtaxationpolicyiscreatingdemandforbiofuels

Twotypesoftaxesareleviedontheuseoffuels

CostIncentives Impact

FiscalTaxes:Thisincludesthegeneraltax

EnvironmentalTaxes:IncludestaxesonCO2,SOxandNOxemission

Thetaxation

level

has

been

constantly

increasing

in

order

to

propagate

the

use

of

biofuels

and

towardsreducingthelevelofgreenhousegassesemitted

1.5

EnergyTax

CO2Tax+

USD/liter

ConventionalGas

0.80.79+22%USD/liter

DieselOil

0.5

1.0

0.43

0.34

0.96

0.45

0.36

1.01 VAT

0.2

0.4

0.6 0.17

0.41

. 0.19

0.44

0.16

Allbiofuelsaretaxfreetill2013.Theyareexemptedfromenergytaxandcarbondioxidetax

thusbeingacosteffectiveoptionforconsumers

0.0.

2008

.

2009

0.0 .

2008 2009



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Feasibilityintheusageofbiofuelsoverordinaryfuelsisexpected

todrivethemarket

Fluctuationsin

Crude

Oil

Prices Impact

Swedendoesnotproducecrudeoilandisthuscompletelydependentonimportsforits

domesticpetroleumneeds

PetroleumConsumption

400

600

USD/barrel

1%

Thepetroleumconsumptionlevelshavebeensteadilydecreasingduetotherecentvolatilityin

0

200

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

pr ceso cru eo

Thishasactedasadriverforthebiofuelsmarketasplayersaremoreinclinedtowardsfocusing

ondevelopingalternativerenewablefuelsources

CrudeOilPrices

50

100

150

71.69


0Sep07 Nov07 Dec07 Jan08 Feb08 Jul08 Mar09Nov08 Dec08 Apr09 May09Jan09 Feb09 Jun09 Jul09 Aug09 Sep09Sep08

f ll h d d f


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Supportforgreencarownerswillincreasethedemandforvehiclesoperatingonbiofuels

Manypolicieshavebeenadoptedtowardscreatingincentivesforprospectivecarbuyersto

purchaseavehiclewhichrunsonbiofuel

Supportfor

Green

Car

Owners Impact

In2006,aCO2basedvehicletaxwasintroducedinordertoencouragethepurchaseofenergy

efficientvehicles,thusreducingemissionsinthetransportsector

Basedon

alegal

act

in

April

2006,

large

fuel

stations

are

required

by

law

to

offer

at

least

one

alternatefuel

Thisincludes~15%ofthetotalfuelstationsamountingtonearly4000fillingstations

Arevisioninpolicyisexpectedinordertoencompass60%ofallfillingstationstosellarenewablevehicle

fuel

by

2010 Thiswasforwardedinordertoenhanceavailabilityoffuelwhichwillleadtoalargerconsumer

basedemandinggreencars

Furthermore,privateindividualspurchasinganewecofriendlycarbetween1April2007and31

December2009areliabletoreceiveasubsidyofUSD1,456.9

TheGovernmentinitiallyearmarkedatotalofUSD36.4mnforsubsidies,butthiswasincreasedin2008as

e

eman

oreco

r en y

cars

was

g er

an

expec e

Stategovernmentshavealsotakenstepswhichisexpectedtodevelopthisindustry

AsofAugust2007,apermanentcongestionchargehasbeenintroducedinStockholm.Greencarsare

exemptfromthischarge


B i k f h l hi l ill l


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Boomingmarketforethanolvehicleswillattractmoreplayerstothissector

HighGrowth

in

Ethanol

Vehicles Impact

EthanolcarsbeingsoldinSwedenhasbeengrowingdynamicallyat95%overthelastdecade

Thegovernmenthasbeencontributingtothisrisethroughadirectivewhichwaspassedon

NumberofEthanolCarsSoldinSweden

Fe ruary1,2009statingt ata carspurc ase yt egovernmentaut oritiesan 50%o

emergencyserviceshavetobeenvironmentallyfriendly

146,976

57,62835,499

25,86817,2321,0741,6691,926717

+95%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

SegmentationofGreenCarsintheMarket

Documents

Market Research Sweden - Biofuels Market in Sweden 2009